October 24-28, 2012
Oct 24 05:15 The Range is changing Oct 25 02:12 St. Cloud Times endorses GOP legislators Oct 25 03:10 Hillary's wimpy spin Oct 25 03:51 Election dirty tricks getting exposed in Florida, Virginia Oct 26 04:29 Duluth News Tribune endorses...Mitt Romney? Oct 26 10:49 If this is true... Oct 27 12:04 Mitt is actually winning Ohio Oct 27 22:08 Rick Nolan: Verified liar & the miners' enemy Oct 28 04:56 Sen.-Elect Akin?
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
The Range is changing
Just a short 3 years ago, political pundits thought it was foolish to think that Jim Oberstar wouldn't retire on his terms. Then Chip Cravaack defeated him by 4,000+ votes. Immediately, the DCCC figuratively painted a bright red bulls-eye in the middle of Chip Cravaack's chest. This was the DFL's seat, after all.
The unthinkable happened when the 49ers union endorsed Chip . Now the unthinkable has happened again. When the DFL tried running a dishonest negative ad against Chip , the TV station it was scheduled to run on pulled the ad:
DULUTH - A second anti-Chip Cravaack ad has been pulled off the air by a television station.
WDIO TV of Duluth reported on air Tuesday evening that the state DFL Party is not going to run an ad scheduled to run that claimed the Republican 8th District congressman 'does not live in Minnesota,' which is false. Cravaack lives in North Branch, in the southern part of the vast district that stretches from the Canadian border on the north to butt up against the northern Twin Cities suburbs on the south.
Cravaack also has a home in New Hampshire, where his wife and two sons live most of the year because of her work several days each week with a pharmaceutical company in Boston. That allows her to be close to the boys every day, one of whom has special needs. She had previously been commuting on a weekly basis between Boston and Minnesota, while Rep. Cravaack served in Congress in Washington.
WCCO television of Minneapolis previously had blocked a Super PAC ad from being broadcast. The ad had claimed that Cravaack had charged constituents to meet with him at a gathering. However, the event was a business group luncheon where the congressman was asked to speak and it was the group that charged for lunch.
Yes, a Duluth TV station is pulling a DFL ad against Chip. That was unthinkable 3 years ago. Add to that the fact that the North Country's two biggest newspapers endorsed Chip for re-election. First, the Mesabi Daily News endorsed Chip, then the Duluth News Tribune endorsed Chip for re-election.
This is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. As the metrocentric DFL teams up with the environmentalists to prevent new mining projects from opening up, the miners will increasingly abandon the DFL.
Tags: Chip Cravaack , Endorsements , Duluth New Tribune , Mesabi Daily News , Engineers Union , GOP , Jim Oberstar , Rick Nolan , DFL , Negative Campaigning , Election 2012
Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 5:15 AM
Comment 1 by Bob J. at 25-Oct-12 11:25 AM
"Yes, a Duluth TV station is pulling a DFL ad against Chip."
WDIO is owned by Stanley Hubbard, who also owns KSTP and is about as conservative as television station owners get.
Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 25-Oct-12 11:58 AM
I didn't know that. Thanks for that information.
Comment 3 by eric z at 25-Oct-12 01:01 PM
MB lives in McCollum's district, runs MN CD 6.
CC lives in New Hampshire, runs MN CD 8.
I see CC as the greater overreacher of the two.
Response 3.1 by Gary Gross at 25-Oct-12 03:34 PM
CC lives in New Hampshire, runs MN CD 8.Chip doesn't live in NH, making you a deliberate liar. I see you as a disgusting partisan hack for repeating Rick Nolan's & the DFL's lie.
Comment 4 by walter hanson at 25-Oct-12 04:35 PM
Eric:
If you want to believe your argument then the entire Minnesota congressional district doesn't live in this state and aren't qualified to have their seats since each one has some type of address in Washington D.C., Maryland, or Virginia.
Chip claims his address is a residence in the 8th district.
Michelle I believe has moved since the lines for the sixth have been redrawn.
That dog doesn't hunt Eric.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
St. Cloud Times endorses GOP legislators
I didn't see this coming. I'm totally surprised that the St. Cloud Times endorsed all 3 GOP legislators from SD-14 :
It isn't that I disagree with the Times' endorsement of John, Steve and King. It's that I didn't see this coming.
Three-term Republican Rep. Steve Gottwalt is the best fit for this solid conservative district.
In his six years in the House, Gottwalt has developed a keen grasp of the state's health and human services programs, which is why he chairs the House Health and Human Services Reform Committee. He has helped lead substantial reforms despite his penchant for divisive rhetoric. His social conservatism also fits the district well.
District 14B is likely a toss-up as evidenced by incumbent GOP Rep. King Banaian's 10-vote victory over DFLer Carol Lewis in 2010.
Given an effective first term, Banaian deserves re-election. He authored the Sunset Commission law and helped college students with textbook prices. His expertise in economics also is a strength.
Voters have a tough choice between incumbent Republican Sen. John Pederson and DFL challenger Jerry McCarter. Both are well-intended but both are too tightly bound to partisan ideologies in an obviously moderate district.
Pederson, an ardent voice for business, developed a reputation as a good listener and advocate for regional trails in his first term so he gets a very slight edge.
It's worth pointing out that John Pederson, Steve Gottwalt and King Banaian have lengthy lists of accomplishments. They accomplished these things without sacrificing their conservative principles.
The bigger point to these endorsements and the endorsement of the GOP candidates in SD-13, is that the GOP is well-positioned to win all 6 seats. Couple that with a likely sweep of seats in SD-15 and Central Minnesota is well-positioned to look dramatically different than it did going into the 2010 election.
Back then, Michele Fischbach, Dan Severson, Steve Gottwalt and Mary Kiffmeyer were the Republicans representing SD-14, SD-15 and SD-16. DFL legislators representing those districts were Larry Hosch, Tarryl Clark, Larry Haws, Lisa Fobbe and Gail Kulick-Jackson.
If the dust settles the way I think it will, Michelle Fischbach, Jerry O'Driscoll and Jeff Howe will represent SD-13, John Pederson, Steve Gottwalt and King Banaian will represent SD-14 and Dave Brown, Sondra Erickson and Jim Newberger will represent SD-15.
That's quite a dramatic change from 4 years ago.
Tags: St. Cloud Times , Endorsement , John Pederson , Steve Gottwalt , King Banaian , Michelle Fischbach , Tim O'Driscoll , Jeff Howe , Dave Brown , Sondra Erickson , Jim Newberger , MNGOP , Election 2012
Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 2:42 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 25-Oct-12 12:58 PM
Gottwalt sells health insurance? That's his day job?
Comment 2 by walter hanson at 25-Oct-12 04:32 PM
Gary:
Maybe they are trying to look nonpartisan and good in order to sell the endorsement of Obama that must be coming.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Hillary's wimpy spin
I've listened to a ton of Clinton spin in my lifetime. Most of it was weapons-grade spin from Lanny Davis, Mike McCurry and Joe Lockhart. Hillary's spin from Wednesday morning's press conference was utterly pathetic:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday a Facebook post in which an Islamic militant group claimed credit for a recent attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya did not constitute hard evidence of who was responsible.
"Posting something on Facebook is not in and of itself evidence. I think it just underscores how fluid the reporting was at the time and continued for some time to be," Clinton said during an appearance with the Brazilian foreign minister at the State Department.
That's insulting. What proof did President Obama's administration have that a virtually unknown video had triggered the protests? The other myth they trotted out was that protests outside the Consulate were hijacked by terrorists.
This administration didn't exercise caution when they trotted out fabrications of hijacked protests or obscure videos. Now they're cautioning Americans to exercise restraint before trusting Ansar al-Sharia's tweets that they attacked the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi.
Let's remember that the administration that's telling everyone to exercise restraint is the administration whose president once said that he didn't know all the facts about the arrest of Prof. Henry Louis Gates but was certain that the police acted stupidly .
On Wednesday, Liz Cheney said that it was her experience when she worked at the State Department that terrorist organizations that claimed credit for terrorist attacks on their website usually committed the terrorist attacks.
Hillary can tell us to exercise caution all she wants but that doesn't mean we'll listen.
Tags: Benghazi , Terrorist Attacks , Ansar al-Sharia , Hillary Clinton , Susan Rice , President Obama , Jay Carney , Web Video , Protests , Cover-up , Embassy Emails , Spin , Henry Louis Gates , National Security , Democrats
Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 3:10 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 25-Oct-12 04:39 PM
Gary:
Lets be honest. They know that they couldn't say even though we killed Bin Laden that didn't put Al Queda out of business so they tried to manufacturer a lie to last at least until election day. They did it even though the lie can't be defended which only makes it worse what happened.
There has been a comparison with Watergate that in Watergate nobody died.
We can do a second comparison. This is being exposed a whole lot faster than Watergate was.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Election dirty tricks getting exposed in Florida, Virginia
The FBI has started an investigation into a voting scam in Florida:
TAMPA, Fla. - The FBI is joining an investigation into bogus letters sent to many Florida residents, including the Republican Party of Florida chairman, that raise questions about their eligibility to vote.
FBI officials said Wednesday the FBI will focus on letters received by voters in 18 counties in central and southwest Florida.
According to the Republican Party of Florida, Chairman Lenny Curry received one of the fake letters on Tuesday.
"This type of activity is not only disgusting, it is criminal, and must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law," Curry said in a release. "I call on Florida Democrats to join me in condemning this false letter writing campaign that appears to target likely voters in Florida, and help RPOF get the word out about this false campaign."
Local 6 first reported the bogus letter scam on Monday, which claim to be from county supervisors of elections but are postmarked from Seattle. They raise questions about the voter's citizenship and appear intended to intimidate people.
The FBI says voters who get a letter should contact their supervisor of elections and then keep the letter for the FBI.
Patrick Moran, the son of Virginia Congressman Jim Moran, needs a lawyer:
At the time this video was taken, Patrick Moran served as the field director for his dad's campaign. He's since resigned. In the video, Patrick Moran explained to a Project Veritas investigator how to commit voter fraud in Virginia.
Tags: Voter Fraud , Florida , Virginia , FBI , Project Veritas , Patrick Moran , Jim Moran , Anti-Semite , Corruption , Investigations , Forgeries , Utility Bills , Democrats , Election 2012
Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 3:51 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 25-Oct-12 12:57 PM
Could he and that Sproul guy share a lawyer? Minimize fees that way?
Duluth News Tribune endorses...Mitt Romney?
Faithful readers of LFR know that I've criticized the Strib mercilessly, with the St. Cloud Times getting its share of criticism, too. This endorsement makes up for all the mindlessly opinionated reporting I've seen:
Yes, Obama inherited a declining economy, a pair of expensive foreign wars and Republicans in Congress who shamefully vowed to obstruct rather than work with him. But his party was in the majority in both the Senate and the House his first two years. And, 'Other presidents have succeeded even with the other party controlling Capitol Hill,' as the Orlando Sentinel pointed out in an editorial this month. 'Democrat Bill Clinton presided over an economic boom and balanced the budget working with Republicans. Leaders find a way.'
Obama hasn't.
In February 2009, just two months into his presidency, Obama gave a televised interview with NBC News in which he famously - or infamously for him - said: 'I will be held accountable. ... If I don't have this done in three years then there's going to be a one-term proposition.'
On Nov. 6, voters from Northwestern Wisconsin, Northeastern Minnesota and elsewhere across the nation can hold the president accountable. He didn't get it done. The results and numbers make clear Washington is ripe for new leadership and a more-promising direction.
Republican Mitt Romney has had a few stumbles of his own, including his unfortunate '47 percent' and 'binders full of women' comments. But such campaign flubs are quickly forgotten and easily overshadowed by the clear message he has put forward: Reviving the economy and putting our nation back on firm financial footing demand to be top priorities.
Romney has a bit of experience and a strong record of leadership with such goals.
I wrote here that I was surprised when the St. Cloud Times endorsed all 6 GOP legislators in the greater St. Cloud area. When I read the Duluth News Tribune's endorsement of Mitt Romney, though, I checked for seismic activity in the Duluth area.
Two years ago, the Eighth District dumped a powerful 18-term committee chair. This year, they're endorsing the GOP nominee over the sitting president. Both decisions were the right decisions.
Tags: Endorsements , Duluth News Tribune , Mitt Romney , GOP , President Obama , Stimulus , ACA , Bailouts , Unemployment , Deficits , Debt , Democrats , Election 2012
Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 4:29 AM
No comments.
If this is true...
Fox News's Jennifer Griffin is reporting that CIA officials ordered "CIA operators" to stand down during the firefight in Benghazi:
Fox News has learned from sources who were on the ground in Benghazi that three urgent requests from the CIA annex for military back-up during the attack on the U.S. Consulate and subsequent attack nearly seven hours later were denied by officials in the CIA chain of command -- who also told the CIA operators to "stand down" rather than help the ambassador's team when shots were heard at approximately 9:40 p.m. in Benghazi on Sept. 11.
Former Navy SEALs Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty were part of a small team who were at the CIA annex about a mile from the U.S. Consulate where Ambassador Chris Stevens and his team came under attack. When they heard the shots fired, they radioed to inform their higher-ups to tell them what they were hearing. They were told to "stand down," according to sources familiar with the exchange. An hour later, they called again to headquarters and were again told to "stand down."
Woods, Doherty and at least two others ignored those orders and made their way to the Consulate which at that point was on fire. Shots were exchanged. The quick reaction force from the CIA annex evacuated those who remained at the Consulate and Sean Smith, who had been killed in the initial attack. They could not find the ambassador and returned to the CIA annex at about midnight.
If Jennifer Griffin's reporting is accurate, and I'm certain it is, then it's just further proof of the disfunction of President Obama's national security team. It's apparent that they put a higher priority on political considerations than they put on saving Americans' lives.
The team was in constant radio contact with their headquarters. In fact, at least one member of the team was on the roof of the annex manning a heavy machine gun when mortars were fired at the CIA compound. The security officer had a laser on the target that was firing and repeatedly requested back-up support from a Specter gunship, which is commonly used by U.S. Special Operations forces to provide support to Special Operations teams on the ground involved in intense firefights.
This is a stunning report from a reliable reporter. Jennifer Griffin is one of the best Pentagon correspondents in the business. If she's reporting it, then she's sourced and cross-sourced this report.
Far too often, President Obama's national security decisions were done through the lens of domestic politics. His semi-surge of troops to Afghanistan was tepid compared with what the generals were requesting. He cut short the mission, too, to meet an artificial, self-imposed, deadline on the mission.
There's always a political component to national security decisions. It's important that those considerations are ignored when lives are on the line.
Tags: Benghazi , Terrorist Attack , Ansar al-Sharia , President Obama , National Security , CIA Annex , Stand Down , Tyrone Woods , Glenn Doherty , Democrats , Politics , Election 2012
Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 10:49 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 26-Oct-12 11:48 AM
Gary, your guys were on watch, Rice as National Security Advisor, while Bush was reading the goat book to grade schoolers and the twin towers were falling (along with WTF 7, which is the real curiosity).
And you have the gall to throw stones? Uh, these are differences in kind. Not like Reagan's letting the Marines be blown up in Lebanon. More like Buckley's capture and death, in Lebanon. Or have you forgotten history. Clinton years had the embassy bombings and the Cole, so this is not just a "you guys" thing, but the BS coming now as an election ploy is sickening.
And you say "CIA operatives" and then identify two ex-Seals. First, what evidence exists that they were CIA and not Xe contractors only? More important -- Were local assets at risk of exposure without a stand down, if you or the FOXies know? Remember how codebreaking secrets were protected, at a cost - tolerating the Pearl Harbor attack allegedly, during WW II because of their overall long-perspective strategic advantages? How do your FOXies know jack about any such considerations?
Answer, they don't.
So, they are tampering around with national security and Romney/Ryan have no respect for an administration's actual real-time national security goals and possible needs and priorities. It seems a bit, to use the Bachmann term, unAmerican to be trying to make political hay from this, where repraisal and investigation can be compromised by big-mouth FOXies.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 26-Oct-12 04:29 PM
Eric, Let's compare the situations. In Benghazi, the firefight lasted over 7 hours. Ambassador Christopher Stevens, Glenn Doherty & Tyrone Woods died 5 hours after the initial attack. During that time, the WH Situation Room denied 3 separate requests for military support. As a direct result, the U.S. diplomatic team needlessly died.
On 9/11, President Bush ordered all flights be grounded immediately. Then he told the Air Force to shoot down any planes that didn't comply with those orders. If the passengers hadn't taken down the flight targeting Capitol Hill, the Air Force would've shot down that flight. It's true that the initial wave of attacks couldn't have been stopped. It's equally true that President Bush's decisions would've prevented any additional terrorist attacks.
In other words, the only similarities between this administration's decision to let the diplomats die & President Bush's orders to shoot down additional terrorist attacks is that a) the decisions were made during the fog of war & b) the decisions were required because of a terrorist attack. Other than that, they're utterly dissimilar.
Comment 2 by Patrick at 26-Oct-12 05:15 PM
I am beginning to think there is more to this than just the attack on our embassy.
Comment 3 by Jethro at 26-Oct-12 09:44 PM
It is always interesting to watch Gary body slam Eric with facts, logic, and reason. And Eric keeps coming back for more only to get body slammed all over again! It's not even a fair fight. Benghazi is another classic example of Obama's incompetence.
Comment 4 by eric z at 27-Oct-12 06:30 AM
Gary. Benghazi is not the continental US.
Different dynamics.
What, call in a drone strike? Your proposal of what should have been done? Let's hear it.
And, conveniently, you ignore the blown up Marines in Labanon during the Gipper's terms. His answer. Leave.
You proplse that for diplomatic relations in Lybia?
Come on. An answer. What should have been done by whom, when, if you are such a capable critic.
Some answer, such as the way Bush got bin Laden?
Come on. Publish it. X,Y and then Z should have been done with the resources on the ground, because of P, Q, and R.
The answer:
Response 4.1 by Gary Gross at 27-Oct-12 07:27 AM
Benghazi is not the continental US.The Consulate is sovereign U.S. territory.
What, call in a drone strike? Your proposal of what should have been done? Let's hear it.Tyrone Woods was already painting the terrorists' position with a laser. Delta Force operators were stationed in southern Europe & prepared to assist in liberating Ambassador Stevens, Sean Smith, Glen Doherty & Tyrone Woods. The first part would likely have involved using laser-guided munitions to wipe out the terrorists. The second part would've likely involved the Delta Force operators getting vulnerable Americans out of harms' way.
And, conveniently, you ignore the blown up Marines in Labanon during the Gipper's terms. His answer. Leave.There's nothing about Beirut that's relevant to Libya. Why would I talk about it?
You propose that for diplomatic relations in Lybia?It's impossible to have diplomatic relations with a country that doesn't have a functioning government.
Some answer, such as the way Bush got bin Laden?President Obama killed UBL. Terrorist activity is on the rise. President Bush quietly took out entire networks of terrorists. Terrorist activity shrunk dramatically. If the goal is protecting US citizens & preventing terrorist attacks, I'll choose the Bush Option every time. In fact, that isn't even a difficult decision. It's rather straightforward. In fact, it's straightforward enough so that even a liberal could understand it.
Comment 5 by eric z at 27-Oct-12 08:09 AM
So you propose something similar to Clinton's intrusion into Somolia, which was less than a success.
And the marines in Lebanon are exactly what you suggest. Send in the troops. Boots on the ground.
We, as a nation, do not run the world. Nor should we try. Let that sink in. Get tapes of Ron Paul speeches.
Last, if you say withdraw diplomats from Lybia, good luck of CIA operations, Gary, since operatives would not have the shield of diplomatic immunity via putting spies into embassy or consulate slots as is now common practice. Moreover, the sentence, "It's impossible to have diplomatic relations with a country that doesn't have a functioning government," is saying we should have been out of Afghanistan yesterday. Defective puppet there, and all.
Response 5.1 by Gary Gross at 27-Oct-12 11:34 AM
So you propose something similar to Clinton's intrusion into Somolia, which was less than a success.First off, it's spelled Somalia. Nothing projects a negative image as incorrect spelling. Second, Clinton's extended war in Somalia is totally dissimilar from what I suggested. Somalia lasted a couple months because it was poorly planned. What I talked about with Delta Force operators might've lasted all of about 48 hours, if that.
And the marines in Lebanon are exactly what you suggest. Send in the troops. Boots on the ground.Again, you're wrong. The mission to save Ambassador Stevens, Sean Smith, Tyrone Woods & Glen Doherty would've lasted hours at most. It would've been surgical, lethal. Beirut was a failure because the Marines were stationed there without a clear mission. They were a sitting target. The Delta Force operators would've been a moving target with a specific mission. Again, it would've been nothing like Beirut.
We, as a nation, do not run the world. Nor should we try. Let that sink in. Get tapes of Ron Paul speeches.That's a non sequitur argument. It doesn't have anything to do with Benghazi. Since when is having an embassy in a foreign nation considered ruling the world? If that's the definition of ruling the world, then every civilized nation is attempting to rule the world. (Next time, think this through before writing this type of blather.
Last, if you say withdraw diplomats from Lybia, good luck of CIA operations, Gary, since operatives would not have the shield of diplomatic immunity via putting spies into embassy or consulate slots as is now common practice. Moreover, the sentence, "It's impossible to have diplomatic relations with a country that doesn't have a functioning government," is saying we should have been out of Afghanistan yesterday. Defective puppet there, and all.I wouldn't have suggested we withdraw the diplomats. I would've suggested that we beef up security prior to 9/11. During the Bush years, that was standard operating procedure. That's why we didn't run into the disasters like we've run into during this president's administration.
Thankfully, this nightmare will come to a screeching halt in 11 days. Good riddance.
Comment 6 by Patrick at 27-Oct-12 08:46 AM
Eric
this is for you. Darn facts I know.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skw-0jv9kts
Comment 7 by walter hanson at 27-Oct-12 03:43 PM
Eric:
Lets not forget that Bin Laden was alive and well to order 9-11 because President Clinton passed on many opprotunites. One that Clinton admitted to because he was caught on tape was that a government had Bin Laden in custody and offered him to us, but we had no criminal charges. He was busy watching a golf tournament to order an attack that could've killed Bin Laden.
But to make a different point. Bush demanded that he be taken back to Washington 9-11 when the Secret Service didn't want him there and addressed the nationa from the White House with the facts he had at the time,
Obama on the other hand ran to Las Vegas for a fund raiser where he had the nerve to compare the people attending his fundraisers as heroes just as important as the dead people in Libya.
Obama even though it can be said clearly knew on September 11th (though Bush didn't clearly know because of the investigation that was needed) that it was not the fault of the video and said that for several weeks.
Why don't you say that President Obama messed and doesn't deserve to be President based on how he handled Libya and then we can Monday morning quarterback the other two Presidents. By the way since we're Monday morning quarterbacking Presidents shouldn't we throw in Carter and Kennedy?
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 8 by Jethro at 27-Oct-12 08:22 PM
Eric could find a way to criticize motherhood and apple pie
Mitt is actually winning Ohio
Dan McLaughlin's post summarizes in statistical form why Mitt is likely to be the next president of the United States. These paragraphs sum things up nicely:
Everything in the latest polls suggests doom for Obama with independents. This morning's Washington Post poll has him down 20 with independents, 58-38. The Rasmussen national tracker has him down 17 today. Today's IBD/TIPP poll has him down 10, 48-38. SurveyUSA/Monmouth has him trailing by 19, 52-33. The outlier, SEIU/DailyKos pollster PPP, had Romney up 2 yesterday with independents, 47-45, after the PPP tracker showed him up 10, 51-41, three days earlier. In this morning's swing state poll, Rasmussen shows Romney leading Obama by 11 with independents.
In Ohio, ARG has Obama down 20 with independents, 57-37, SurveyUSA has him down 8, 47-39; TIME has him down 15, 53-38; PPP has him down 7, 49-42; CBS/Quinnipiac has him down 7, 49-42; Gravis has him down 19, 52-33.
This explains why media organizations (notice that I didn't call them news organizations) have vastly oversampled Democrats in their attempt to make it look like President Obama is leading. If these media organizations used statistically accurate registration models, their polls wouldn't have shown President Obama leading nationally.
Most private polling companies figure Ohio as a D+2 state at most. Many of the media organizations' polls are D+7-8 models. That rivals the PVI of 2008. Serious people know that President Obama doesn't enjoy that type of PVI rating this year. It isn't even close.
To make sense of the various polls, I've started looking beneath the horserace numbers. Based on Mr. McLaughlin's methodology, it looks like I was right. What I've done is start looking at polls via a votes per 100 voters model. That's what I did with this post .
Chip's district is a D+2 or D+3 district. The KSTP-SurveyUSA poll is based on a D+7 model. Chip gets 89% of Republicans, 6% of DFLers and 53% of independents.
The proper weighting of the district is 35% DFL, 34% GOP, 31% independent. That means Chip gets 30.2 votes from Republicans, 2.1 votes from DFL voters and 16.5 votes from independents for every 100 voters. That's 48.8 votes per hundred for Chip.
Adapting that methodology to Ohio, that means Republicans and Democrats (more or less) cancel each other out. That means independents will determine the winner. With Mitt winning independents by double-digit margins, there's no reason to think he won't win Ohio. President Obama certainly won't have the type of turnout that he had in 2008 so he won't be able to offset Mitt's advantage with independents.
Here's Mr. McLaughlin's analysis of the race:
The waterfront of analyzing all the factors that go into my conclusion here is too large to cover in one post, but the signs of Obama's defeat are too clear now to ignore. Given all the available information, Romney's lead among independents, the outlier nature of the 2008 turnout model, the elections held since 2008, the party ID surveys, the voter registration, early voting and absentee ballot data, I have to conclude that there is no remaining path at this late date for Obama to win the national popular vote. He is toast.
The same things that are artificially propping up President Obama nationwide are artificially propping President Obama up in Ohio. President Obama's message sounds more like the rantings of a spoiled brat throwing a temper tantrum than the words of the President of the United States.
Tags: Polling , Independents , National Polls , Ohio , Turnout Models , Likely Voters , President Obama , Democrats , Mitt Romney , Gravitas , GOP , Election 2012
Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 12:04 PM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 27-Oct-12 03:50 PM
Gary:
Lets not forget two points that apply to Ohio.
One, despite all of these Democrat + polls Obama has just 50% in one of the many polls. Most have him 46-49. Thus if you assume that all undecides to break for the challenger Romney wins on that.
And two, these polling companies are asking have you voted early (Ohio allows that) and their numbers when the pollsters attempt to put into their polls don't match the hard data of early votes turned in (and shock that favors Obama).
A third point it's looking more and more that Romney is winning 53-47 or better. When that happens a lot of states that are expected to be in Obama's camp will be in Romney's.
Walter Hanson
Minenapolis, Mn
Rick Nolan: Verified liar & the miners' enemy
During this campaign, Rick Nolan has tried several scams to boost his popularity. He tried selling his boondoggle Mining Institute as proof that he's pro-mining. Now he's peddling lies that Chip Cravaack doesn't live in Minnesota. We know Nolan's lying because WDIO wouldn't let the DFL run their ad with that specific lie .
Here's what Nolan's up to now:
When U.S. Rep. Chip Cravaack hears ads by his 8th District opponent Rick Nolan saying 'he doesn't even live here anymore,' he describes them as an attack on his family and a broken promise not to get personal in the hotly contested race.
When Nolan hears that accusation, he responds by calling it hypocrisy and an odd leap by Cravaack to bring his family into the dispute over his residency.
In a week of back-and-forth sparring between the two, Cravaack said publicly for the first time this week that his son Nick has autism, and that an accident involving the 10-year-old at their home in Lindstrom spurred him to move his family to New Hampshire, closer to the Boston company where his wife, Traci, works.
It's taboo in politics to go after another politician's family. That's what Nolan did when he lied about where Chip did. The despicable people in the DFL messaging machine haven't hesitated in talking about Chip's wife living in New Hampshire. The DFL thinks it's a big deal with voters.
Instead, Chip stepped forward to explain why his wife and kids moved to New Hampshire, explaining that their oldest son has autism.
Faced with that explanation, decent people would apologize for lying, then pull the ads with these lies. Finally, a politician with any integrity would wish Chip's family nothing but the best, then get back to campaigning about the issues. It's apparent that Nolan isn't a man of integrity:
But the Nolan camp said it could not confirm any such agreement, and that it was Cravaack who brought his family issues into the dispute.
'They're trying to distract because they are behind,' Nolan spokesman Mike Misterek said. 'There is no talk about his family in that ad.'
First, let's state that Nolan was caught lying about Chip not living in Minnesota. Because of Mr. Nolan's blatant lie, Mr. Misterek is sent out to spin away Nolan's lie.
Next, it's the worst of spin to say Chip's trailing. He isn't. Nolan's getting his butt kicked with independents , trailing Chip by a 53%-36% margin.
Finally and most importantly, Chip's done more in 2 years in Congress to create good-paying mining jobs than Jim Oberstar ever did and more than what Rick Nolan would ever do. Nolan isn't interested in mining. He's consistently sided with the militant environmentalists who've funded his campaign.
No honest person thinks that Nolan would fight the militant environmentalists if there was a fight between the environmentalists and the miners.
Rick Nolan isn't a man of integrity. The last thing Washington, DC needs is another bought-and-paid-for politician who doesn't have an ounce of integrity. Secondly, if Nolan was elected, he'd do whatever the special interests told him to. That's because that's what he's always done. Third, Nolan has shown great interest in conning his would-be constituents. In fact, Nolan hasn't shown any interest in doing what's right for his constituents, especially with respect to mining.
That, more than anything else, is why Eighth District voters should reject the slick-sounding empty suit known as Rick Nolan. Instead, they should re-elect Chip Cravaack because Chip's committed to making life better for the blue collar workers of the middle class throughout the Eighth District.
Tags: Rick Nolan , Politics of Personal Destruction , Militant Environmentalists , Pork , DFL , Chip Cravaack , Mining , Middle Class , Blue Collar Jobs , Families , MNGOP , Election 2012
Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 10:08 PM
Comment 1 by walter.hanson at 28-Oct-12 02:58 PM
Gary:
Lets not forget in the year when the Republicans are accused of having a war on women the democrats are attacking the man who has supported his wife's decision to be with kids where she works.
Um I thought the democrats want women to have kids and work good paying jobs.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by eric z at 29-Oct-12 06:51 AM
It would be good if Nolan wins. It would help recapture the House, and end, hopefully, gridlock.
Comment 3 by walter hanson at 29-Oct-12 10:07 PM
Eric:
Since President Romney is going to be elected gridlock will be created if the Democrats capture the House (by the way that isn't going to happen the best estimate is the Democrats gain less then 10 seats - believe it or not the Republicans defending sixty plus new seats might gain seats)
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 4 by Brian at 30-Oct-12 09:38 PM
Nolan Is retired and currently lives in Florida for I think I heard 6 years where he will go to after the first week in November is over. The people of Minnesota are a lot smarter that to listen an angry old man lie repeatedly on TV and believe it. Nolan is lucky that Chip has respect and wouldn't talk about Nolan's marriage problems when he was in congress.
Comment 5 by Nononolan not good for 8th at 01-Nov-12 07:45 AM
Rickety frickety Dick Nolan is a greedy man. And a liar! Missed. 30% of votes and could care less about the 8 th D and mining. He is a friend to the EPA, he wants more studies and regulations. Hes an angry person needs anger management classes. Hes in lockstep with oberstar who got booted and left Duluth at 4:1 poverty level for uresidents. No oberclones wanted or needed back in CD8. Dick can go back to his 450k home in Florida!
Sen.-Elect Akin?
I hadn't paid any attention to the Akin-McCaskill race recently but this polling suggests I should :
The News 4, St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Kansas City Star poll shows Senator Claire McCaskill with a 2 percent lead over Congressman Todd Akin, at 45 and 43 percent, respectively.
What's interesting is that Rep. Akin leads Sen. McCaskill amongst independents by a 42%-36% margin. Another thing that's interesting is that Rep. Akin only got 82% of the GOP votes vs. Sen. McCaskill getting 97% of the Democrats' votes. Finally, 9% of Republicans and 13% of independents are undecided. It isn't likely that those votes will break for Sen. McCaskill, especially after they see this video:
In fact, I'm betting that Rep. Akin's lead with independents grows after they see that ad. Here's the transcript of that ad:
Todd Akin: "I'm Todd Akin and I approved this message."
Announcer: "It's been revealed, Claire McCaskill's husband was caught cutting business deals in the Senate dining room, selling tax credits tied to Obama's stimulus money, money Claire McCaskill voted for. McCaskill uses her position and power to cash in. It's no surprise that McCaskill thinks she's above the law, she didn't pay her taxes but voted to raise ours. The arrogance and corruption of Claire McCaskill. Dealing herself in. Selling us out."
It wasn't that long ago that Sen. McCaskill was the most vulnerable senator up for re-election, mostly because she's used her position to benefit her husband's business and because she's the most dishonest member of the U.S. Senate this side of Harry Reid.
Those facts haven't changed. Now that Rep. Akin and Sen. McCaskill are making their closing arguments, voters are getting reminded why they don't like her.
Six weeks ago, Rep. Akin looked like toast. Things settled down. Sen. McCaskill's past has been dredged up. Now Sen. McCaskill's looking like she's heading for defeat. Good riddance.
Tags: Corruption , Claire McCaskill , Tax Credits , Democrats , Todd Akin , Independents , Polling , GOP , Election 2012
Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 4:56 AM
Comment 1 by walter.hanson at 28-Oct-12 02:55 PM
Gary:
Along with Minnesota might go for Romney maybe I can start dreaming of Senator Akin that creates a majority far bigger than 51 for President Romney.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
