The Year of the Black Republican?

That's the headline of Dan Balz's and Matthew Mosk's Washington Post article . I suspect that that'll be one of the most compelling storylines in this fall's elections.
Blackwell, who will face Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland in November, is now the third prominent African American on a statewide Republican ballot this fall. In Maryland, Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, whose candidacy has benefited from his friendship with two Republican National Committee chairmen, is the party's nominee to fill the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes. In Pennsylvania, former Pittsburgh Steelers star Lynn Swann is challenging Democratic Gov. Edward G. Rendell.
As more black voters see the qualifications of these three men, the more they'll start giving strong consideration to the GOP. While I don't expect any of these candidates to earn 50% of the black vote, I do expect their candidacies to put a scare into Democratic strategists nationwide.

Frankly, if I were consulting for these races, I'd have each of them meeting weekly with black businessmen, asking them if they liked the notion of high taxes and regulations or if they prefered keeping more of their hard-earned money in their pockets. A businessman is a businessman and I've never met a businessman who didn't prefer keeping a larger portion of his earnings.

Another thing I'd have them doing is talking about vouchers to inner city families. There isn't a parent alive that wouldn't prefer better schools for their kids. That's the new civil rights issue that the Agenda Media won't cover. When they're forced to cover it, they usually take the angle of whether or not public money should be spent in religious institutions. Wrong question. The right question is whether these children would benefit from them because that's all that matters.
All three begin as underdogs. Independent polls have shown Steele starting the campaign as much as 15 points behind the Democratic front-runner. Blackwell trailed by 10 percentage points in a pre-primary Mason-Dixon poll for the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Swann trails Rendell in the polls and has lost ground since entering the race earlier this year.
I don't think that Blackwell is the underdog that Balz makes him out to be. Most of Strickland's lead is directly attributable to Bob Taft's ethical dilemma. Once the race hits the home stretch, people won't be as worried about the past as they'll be thinking about the future and about the policies of the candidates.

From what I understand, Swann's made some early mistakes but nothing that can't be fixed. Fast Eddie Rendell has some serious ethical problems of his own and he just vetoed a bill requiring a picture ID to vote. Word is that plays in Philadelphia but it's got people in conservative areas plenty upset.

Michael Steele likely faces the most daunting task but he's a charismatic figure so don't rule out a Steele victory, either. Maryland is definitely a blue state but Steele might have a shot at winning over black voters, especially if the Democrats pick Cardin over Mfume as their candidate.



Posted Wednesday, May 10, 2006 1:59 AM

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