August 16-18, 2012
Aug 16 00:29 Despite the spin, people support Photo ID Aug 16 09:59 Exposing Obama administration's hostility towards mining Aug 16 11:11 Is this election turning? Aug 16 13:03 Is VP Biden in Michelle Obama's doghouse? Aug 17 00:36 Gauthier scandal surely will disgust voters Aug 17 09:55 There they go again Aug 18 09:29 Discredited liar at it again Aug 18 13:28 Altered reality
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Despite the spin, people support Photo ID
Jonathan Tobin's article about Photo ID is interesting:
Liberals have spent most of the year trying to convince Americans that voter ID laws are a false front for racist voter suppression. They argue there's no such thing as voter fraud and that legislation aimed at combating election cheating is merely a Republican plot to steal the election. But, as a new Washington Post poll on the subject demonstrates, the majority aren't buying it. Almost three quarters, 74 percent, believe voters should be required to show official, government-issued identification when they vote. A clear majority of those polled also think, contrary to liberal allegations, that voter ID laws are rooted in concern about a genuine problem.
For months, USAG Holder attempted to frighten people. When he wasn't trying to frighten people, he tried suing them. Despite Holder's attempts to frighten or threaten people, the threats aren't working.
Photo ID is something that the American people have made up their mind about. They paid attention to the ACORN voter registration scandals. Though those foot soldiers didn't admit to voter fraud, people know that that's the next logical step. People willing to commit voter registration fraud are willing to commit voter fraud.
Another thing that the people believe is that it isn't that difficult to get photo identification. Photographic identification is routinely required in the course of an average day.
Want to buy $50 worth of groceries? That'll require photographic identification. Want to buy Sudafed? That'll require photographic identification, too. Flying somewhere? It won't happen without photographic identification.
It's impossible to convince people that requiring photographic identification to vote is an undue burden. They aren't convinced. In poll after poll, 65-75% of people support requiring photographic identification. It's just that simple.
Tags: Photo ID , Polls , Voter Fraud , ACORN , DFL
Posted Thursday, August 16, 2012 12:29 AM
No comments.
Exposing Obama administration's hostility towards mining
This article from Salena Zito and this article highlight the lengths the Obama administration will go in shutting down the mining industry.
This is from Ms. Zito's article:
' His vice president said coal is more dangerous than terrorists . Can you imagine that?' Romney told a cheering crowd of about 2,600 people in the village of Beallsville, where 70 miners from American Energy Corp.'s Century Mine joined him onstage. 'This tells you precisely what he actually feels and what he's done, and his policies over the last three-and-a-half years have put in place the very vision he had when he was running for office.'
Romney said he and mine owner Bob Murray, whose Cleveland-based Murray Energy Corp. digs 60 percent of the state's coal, listened to an Obama campaign ad on the car radio, in which the president said he supports 'clean coal.' Yet, Obama tells audiences in Western states that he supports only energy resources that come from aboveground, Romney said.
'I thought, how in the world can you go out there and tell people things that just aren't true?' he said. 'If you believe the whole answer for energy needs is wind and solar, then say that.'
Mr. President, it's shameful that you'd lie to the people of Ohio like that. Speaker Gingrich was right when he called Steven Chu the anti-energy secretary .
Here's something scary from Michael Bastasch's article:
In May, the EPA released its watershed assessment of large-scale mining by Pebble LP at Bristol Bay, which could be one of the largest copper and gold mines in the world, and expressed concerns over impact the mine would have on local salmon habitats and surrounding wetlands.
Under the Clean Water Act, operations that dump 'dredge or fill materials' into wetlands, rivers, lakes, or streams are required to obtain a Section 404 permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The EPA can revoke this permit if there are 'unacceptable adverse impacts on municipal water supplies, shellfish beds and fishery areas, wildlife, or recreational areas.'
However, the watershed assessment did not evaluate any actual plans for the Pebble Mine , as none have been put forward, instead it evaluates a hypothetical mine . Independent scientists have also expressed concerns over this approach and have said the assessment was rushed.
That's chilling. The EPA is making a judgment based on...assumptions? Shouldn't their decisions be based on actual plans?
President Obama campaigned on the notion that he'd base his decisions on science. That's BS. He's basing his decisions on political ideology, not verifiable facts.
As a direct result of his EPA's decisions, gas prices have doubled since he took office, electric bills are more expensive, mining jobs are endangered and the price of products affected by higher gas prices is more expensive.
That's the direct result of his political ideology and the Democratic Party's reliance on campaign contributions from the trust fund elitists who fund the militant environmentalists.
This administration's hostility towards mines of all kinds is appalling. We The People can't afford their hostility towards mining.
That's why firing this president this November isn't just important, it's imperative.
Tags: President Obama , Bristol Bay , Pebble LP , Gold , Copper , Mining , EPA , Democrats , Mitt Romney , Coal , Cincinnati , Ohio , Jobs , GOP , Election 2012
Posted Thursday, August 16, 2012 9:59 AM
No comments.
Is this election turning?
This morning more than others, there's a sense that this election is turning and not in President Obama's direction. The latest Rasmussen polling must sting the Obama campaign:
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 48% support to President Obama's 47%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
Remember the Democrats' spin right after Gov. Walker's recall election? They reminded us that President Obama was still leading in Wisconsin. Apparently, Cheeseheads' appreciation for President Obama wasn't rooted as deeply as the Democrats told us.
The fact that Mitt's ahead in Wisconsin is bad enough. This polling from Florida should frighten President Obama:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Romney earning 45% support to the president's 43% . Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
The horserace number is only part of the story. That only 43% of Floridians will vote for President tells a sad story if you're an Obama supporter. He's a known quantity. The people have sized him up. This biblical phrase leaps to mind:
MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN.
TRANSLATION: You've been weighed in the balance and been found wanting. Floridians have weighed President Obama's strengths and weaknesses. They've found him unacceptable.
Polling is only part of the story. It's one thing when Chris Stirewalt writs President Obama missed his opportunity on entitlements . It's another when Kirsten Powers writes about " Why The Screwed Generation Is Turning To Paul Ryan ":
Generation X chronicler Jeff Gordiner, has written that Gen-Xers suffer from 'athazagoraphobiaian abnormal and persistent fear of being forgotten or ignored.' Except it's not really a phobia; it's been reality for a long time. Maybe that is about to change.
Enter Ryan. While Democrats attack his Medicare plan as 'radical' and portray him as pushing granny off the cliff, young people don't seem to be buying this caricature. Or maybe 'radical' is what they want.
The Obama campaign's attempt to villify Paul Ryan won't work because today's reality frightens Gen-X infinitely more than Paul Ryan's plan does. Here's proof:
A Zogby/JZ Analytics poll Tuesday showed increased support among voters 18-29 for the Romney ticket, which pollster John Zogby attributed to the Ryan pick. President Obama received just 49 percent of the youth vote, versus Romney's 41 percent. (Obama took home 66 percent of the youth vote against McCain in 2008.)
A 17-point drop is a gigantic drop. That's a drop of several hundred thousand votes. More importantly, that's several divisions of GOTV workers in key states.
This is a warning shot across Democrats' bow:
Jon Cowan, the CEO of the centrist think tank Third Way told me, 'Ryan is doing the country a huge service by putting this on the table.' Cowan is the former founder of Lead or Leave, a Gen X group that gained prominence in the 1990s as it rang the alarm bells for reducing the deficit and dealing with entitlements. He doesn't believe Ryan's plan is the best way to reform Medicare, though he concedes that it is a serious plan. He cautions that Democrats may find themselves in political peril in the next 10 years if they don't come up with a substantive alternative plan. He says, 'There are a lot of younger voters who say of the Ryan plan, 'at least I get something: at least there is a plan'. If you don't get in there and offer a plan you give up the high ground on policy.'
This should frighten Democrats. The fact that they can't demagogue this issue with a significant voting block should frighten the bejesus out of them. Taking the demagoguery arrow out of the Democrats' quiver is the political equivalent to exposing Superman to kryptonite.
Put these things together and they tell people that this is a tipping point week for this election.
Tags: President Obama , Mediscare , Polling , Scott Rasmussen , Ohio , Florida , Gen-X , Democrats , Paul Ryan , Ryan Budget , GOP , Election 2012
Posted Thursday, August 16, 2012 11:11 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 16-Aug-12 07:10 PM
Gary:
This is how much trouble Obama is in. According to Real Clear Politics Obama has 237 electoral votes. If Obama wins Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Iowa (all possible, but he can lose those) he only has 262 electoral votes. He needs Wisconsin to get to 272.
So Obama needs to win five states which seem iffy or pull out at least one of the following which I expect him to lose Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Obama's reelection is on extreme life support right now. Fortunately the left and the mainstream media don't realize it even though the Obama camapaign does because any time I look Obama is in one of these states.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by Lady Logician at 16-Aug-12 07:30 PM
The more important number from that Zogby poll is that the majority of those 18-29's that the President lost are simply NOT VOTING this year. The President has a large base that has decided that they are not turning out to support what has been (to them) a very disappointing Administration.
LL
Comment 3 by eric z at 17-Aug-12 07:31 AM
Regarding your headline, no.
Is VP Biden in Michelle Obama's doghouse?
Small business owners are standing up to this administration. They've started rejecting visits from VP Biden :
Vice President Joe Biden's advance team approached the owner of a local Virginia mom and pop bakery, 'Crumb and Get It', and asked him if the bakery could host an event for Biden on Wednesday.
The owner, Chris McMurray, who just opened the store with his wife in May, could have used the business and attention.
But he declined the offer because he was upset over comments President Barack Obama made in which he told small business owners like McMurray, 'you didn't build that.'
"This is an opportunity of a lifetime but essentially I said 'No offense to you or the campaign but I just decline you guys coming in here,' McMurray told reporters. 'At that time she said 'Are you sure? There's going to be a lot of press, a lot of activity,'"
McMurray said 'very simply, 'you didn't build that' was the reason why he declined the invitation, noting that, 'speaking of small businesses and entrepreneurs all across this country and actually last night my wife was up all night. No sleep, she's worked a full 24 hours."
First, it's great that Mr. McMurray said no on behalf of all small businessmen and women. That doesn't mean I think Mr. McMurray's motives were totally altruistic. I'm certain that he'll get tons of PR, and business, because he said no to the VP.
I'm worried, though, that VP Biden might've done something that'll get him in Michelle's doghouse. Here's why :
Doughnuts are fried, full of sugar and white flour and most all varieties contain trans fat. Store-bought doughnuts are made up of about 35 percent to 40 percent trans fat , and an average doughnut contains about 200 to 300 calories, mostly from sugar, and few other nutrients.
VP Biden has survived his gazillions of gaffes because expectations aren't high for him with that. It remains to be seen whether he can survive Michelle Obama's temper tantrum for visiting a shoppe that specializes in selling products with high trans fat content.
UPDATE: That's what I get for not reading the entire article in the first place. I missed this tasty tidbit the first time through:
WBDJ7 reports that the secret service, though, walked into 'Crumb and Get It' and thanked McMurray for standing up to Biden and saying 'no' and bought 'a bunch of cookies and cupcakes.'I haven't read anything about the trans fat content of cookies and cupcakes but I can't picture them being on the First Lady's list of healthy foods.
Tags: President Obama , Michelle Obama , Bakery , Doughnuts , Trans Fat , Joe Biden , Food Police , Democrats , Election 2012
Posted Thursday, August 16, 2012 1:11 PM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 16-Aug-12 06:59 PM
Gary:
There might be another reason for turning it down. I look at Big Government on a regular basis and apparently according to a post on their website Obama's appearance at the Iowa State Fair cost a beer vendor $25,000 plus in sales because of the Secret Service security demands.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by Lady Logician at 16-Aug-12 07:27 PM
Hot Air is also reporting that there may be a reason why the Secret Service made a point of possibly getting into serious hot water at work. It seems that our esteemed VP CHARGES RENT to his protection detail!
LL
Gauthier scandal surely will disgust voters
When the news broke of the affair between Michael Brodkorb and Sen. Amy Koch, the DFL punditocracy hyped it up, saying that Minnesotans would be repulsed by the scandal. At the time, I thought it probably wasn't smart for the DFL to play things up like they did.
I thought that the DFL would overplay their hand with that scandal. That's becoming reality with the news about Kelly Gauthier's late night rednezvous with a 17-year-old boy :
State Patrol will confirm that one witness approached a trooper around 11 at night on July 22nd to report an incident.
The State Patrol turned the investigation over to the Duluth Police Department.
Well placed sources today told the Northland's NewsCenter, the incident involved a 17 year old boy with whom Gauthier was reportedly engaged in a sexual act.
Because the age of consent in Minnesota is 16 it is not illegal to have sex with someone who is 17. However it can be a misdemeanor to engage in sex acts in a public place.
Our sources say Representative Gauthier met the young man on Craig's List and that police are investigating the potential that money changed hands which could make it a criminal matter.
I won't pretend that the GOP is pure as the driven snow. I'll just suggest that, if it's confirmed, paying a person for sexual acts is a crime in Minnesota. That elevates the situation considerably.
I'll be honest. I never bought the thinking that the Brodkorb-Koch scandal was enough to tip the legislature from GOP to DFL. That's why I don't think this scandal will impact which party will be the majority party. That said, it's pretty apparent that a potential case of child prostitution isn't the type of thing that Ken Martin and Paul Thissen want to dealing with heading into the sprint to the finish line.
The only question left unanswered is whether Rep. Gauthier is forced to resign immediately or if the DFL leadership is willing to sit on their thumbs and say nothing. Then again, this DFL leadership team might pretend that this didn't happen and pray that their media allies at the Strib and WCCO will protect them with a shroud of darkness.
Apparently, Rep. Gauthier is hiding from the press :
Republican Party of Minnesota Chairman Pat Shortridge issued the following statement calling for transparency regarding this issue from the DFL House Caucus and Rep. Gauthier.
"Wednesday's revelation that DFL State Representative Kerry Gauthier is under investigation for alleged misconduct at a Duluth area rest stop is deeply disturbing.
"Today, Gauthier's constituents have legitimate reason to believe that what he terms a 'private matter' is preventing him from doing his job representing them.
"Gauthier's absence from today's legislative hearing on providing his district relief from the floods that devastated Duluth in June, raises serious doubts about his ability to continue holding public office. He attended a previous meeting on August 7, when the July 22 incident was still not publicly known. His failure to come to the Capitol today indicates that as other legislators are discussing helping his district, he can't even serve his constituents for fear of having to face reporters.
This isn't private conduct since it's affecting his ability to serve his consistituents during a crisis. That's anything but private conduct.
Finally, Rep. Thissen hasn't spoken about this in almost 4 weeks. His silence indicates that his actions are purely politically motivated. There isn't another justification for his silence.
Tags: Scandal , Kerry Gauthier , Paul Thissen , Investigation , Police , Prostitution , Corruption , Craigs List , Cover Up , Media , DFL , Election 2012
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 12:36 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 17-Aug-12 07:29 AM
The Koch-Brodkorb thing never was a scandal, it was two people bedding one another while married to third persons. It was the four horsemen of the GOP who blew it out of proportion for their own political ends; and their actions give or take one exception blew up on them.
This latest thing. The guy is out of the legislature, whatever the detail, and as with Koch-Brodkorb, we should move on.
The problem with not moving on from Koch-Brodkorb is the ham-handedness with which GOP operatives gleefully handed Brodkorb his exit. ALL, ALL, ALL, ALL your party's mess-up. Blaming the DFL at all on that score is being intentionally false.
On this Duluth individual, his political career has come to an end, but that's no cause to suggest it's any business of Thissen. Unlike your Republicans, who enjoyed themselves while acting so pompous, Thissen has class and will not be drawn into any such public showing of stupidity, try as you might to bait the gentleman. Give it up. Move on to less salacious stuff.
Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 17-Aug-12 09:34 AM
Thissen hid this from the public for 24 days. That's certainly his business. More importantly, he didn't call for Gauthier's resignation.
He didn't need to call for Gauthier's resignation publicly initially. Approaching him quietly would've worked initially.
If Gauthier said no initially, then Thissen should've gone public. It's apparent that Rep. Thissen was perfectly willing to never bring this up and to let Gauthier keep serving.
Most importantly, why didn't the police make this known publicly? Why did we first hear about this 24 days after the incident? (It isn't alleged anymore because Gauthier & the boy admitted that they had oral sex to the police.)
Isn't it interesting that the day after the story broke is the day that the county attorney announces that he isn't bringing charges? Isn't it interesting that Gauthier & the lad told police that money didn't exchange hands, which would've elevated this to a felony?
There's a bunch of troubling law enforcement questions & troubling questions about Thissen that haven't gotten answered. There's no way I'm letting people off the hook this easily.
Comment 3 by Bob J. at 17-Aug-12 01:53 PM
Gauthier is a Democrat. Of course there will be no consequences.
Response 3.1 by Gary Gross at 17-Aug-12 03:25 PM
Bob, Check out my article about what's laughably being called an investigation. This isn't going away anytime soon. This thing stinks like crony coverup to the high heavens.
Comment 4 by Chad Q at 17-Aug-12 09:59 PM
Thissen has class? I guess that would mean Larry Craig real does have a wide stance.
The ends justify the means for democrats and nothing more will come of this. The media and public officals will cover this up and the voters will forget it ever happened.
Comment 5 by walter hanson at 18-Aug-12 11:33 AM
Eric:
On a previous post you said you cared about the deficit that was being run up. I showed you that Obama had run up $6 trillion of debt in just four years.
So I guess on this issues which effects everyone unlike the sex scandals which you commented on that you're announcing you're voting for Mitt Romney because Obama rang up that $6 trillion in debt?
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
There they go again
Just once, I wish the LA Times wouldn't carry President Obama's water or drink his kool-aid. This time, the LA Times seems amazed that a running mate pick is supporting the nominee's positions:
The probing did not let up Thursday, even during a quick visit the new Republican vice presidential candidate made to a hot dog stand here. Ryan invited a reporter celebrating a birthday to join him for a bite, and was soon asked about his Medicare position.
"You're criticizing President Obama right now for taking money from Medicare to pay for Obamacare. But your budget plan includes those cuts. What's your response to that?" asked the reporter, Chris Moody of Yahoo News.
Leaning over a hot dog covered in sauerkraut, Ryan responded: "First of all, those are in the baseline; he put those cuts in. Second of all, we voted to repeal Obamacare repeatedly, including those cuts. I voted that way before the budget; I voted that way after the budget. So when you repeal all of Obamacare what you end up doing is that repeals that as well."
The idiots in the media need to pay attention to what Paul Ryan's plan doesn't do. What Ryan's plan doesn't do is it doesn't use that money to artificially bring down the deficits caused by the ACA. Ryan's plan doesn't take money from the Medicare Trust Fund, which is really just an IOU, then transfer that IOU into the fund for the ACA.
Second, Paul Ryan doesn't tell audiences that the IOU's taken from the Medicare Trust Fund will pay for the ACA and extend Medicare's solvency.
More to the point, the reality is that running mates adopt the nominee's positions almost without exception.
Tags: LA Times , Media Bias , Paul Ryan , Medicare , Mitt Romney , GOP , Mediscare , Democrats , Election 2012
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 9:55 AM
No comments.
Discredited liar at it again
Stephanie Cutter is at it again. The last time I wrote about her, she was saying that she didn't know anything about Joe Soptic's life story :
Deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter told CNN she didn't know the facts behind Soptic's story.
'I don't know the facts about when Mr. Soptic's wife got sick or the facts about his health insurance,' she said.
Robert Gibbs echoed that sentiment when he told reporters on Air Force One that 'we don't have any knowledge of the story of the family.'
But an article posted Thursday at policymic.com says that Soptic was on a conference call with Cutter on May 4, 2012.
'Stephanie Cutter knew Joe Soptic, and heard the entire story well before the Priorities USA ad debuted over the airways. It's now obvious that she lied when trying to deny it this week,' Jesse Merkel wrote.
It didn't help Ms. Cutter's credibility that she hosted a conference call with Joe Soptic as the featured guest of the call. During that call, Mr. Soptic accused Mitt Romney of closing GST Steel in 2001. They ignored the fact that top Obama bundler Jonathan Lavine was in charge of Bain Capital at the time.
Now Cutter's at it again:
The first thing Cutter says in the video is that Mitt Romney accused President Obama of cutting benefits for current seniors. That's a green eye shade statement that must be debunked.
According to the Medicare actuary, Medicare will be totally bankrupt in 2024 if changes aren't made. That's what Mitt said. That's the argument Mitt and Paul Ryan are making. That's the fight they're currently winning.
It's beyond question that many current Medicare enrollees will be using Medicare when it goes bankrupt. Still, I suspect that, if confronted with this information, Stephanie Cutter will lie about that, too.
The next thing Ms. Cutter says is partially true:
He ends taxpayer subsidies to insurance companies and weeds out waste, fraud and abuse, which saves the Medicare system $716,000,000,000.
Stephanie Cutter intentionally omitted the fact that President Obama then uses that money to finance the ACA. That's indisputable because Democrats told CBO that it would be used to finance the CLASS Act.
That's what led CBO to report the double-counting. Paul Ryan talked about that when he took President Obama's plan apart . So thorough was Ryan's explanation that President Obama couldn't respond, much less refute.
The Obama campaign is paying Ms. Cutter a bunch of money to lie. I just don't think they're getting a great return on that money. The polling since Mitt announced Paul Ryan as his running mate have significantly changed the trajectory of the race.
Couple that with Ms. Cutter's getting caught lying on CNN about Mr. Soptic and there's justification to think she isn't a campaign asset.
Tags: President Obama , Stephanie Cutter , Mediscare , Affordable Care Act , Medicare Actuary , Democrats , Mitt Romney , Paul Ryan , Double-Counting , CBO , GOP , Election 2012
Posted Saturday, August 18, 2012 9:29 AM
Comment 1 by jgarcia at 18-Aug-12 12:02 PM
Look wake up and smell the coffee, most politicians and their aides lie. Republicans do it, democrats do it. Don't be so naive to think only one side lies, or I've got a bridge for sale.
Comment 2 by eric z at 21-Aug-12 07:03 PM
An Ann Colter clone, of the other party?
Altered reality
Jonathan Alter is one of the least persuasive opinion writers because he passionately believes in an Alter-native reality. Alter's latest column is filled with that type of BS:
Some Democrats now dare to wonder if Romney's pick for vice president could even undermine Republican control of the House of Representatives. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has said for months that the Democrats can take the House; no one believed her. Although it's still a steep challenge, Ryan's addition to the ticket makes the climb easier.
The Democrats retaking the House isn't "a steep challenge." It's impossible.
First, Democrats would need a wave election to swing 25 House seats from red to blue. There isn't proof that this is a wave election, mostly because Democrats suffer from a significant enthusiasm gap.
In 2006 and 2008, there was a 100% chance that Democrats would've run through brick walls to get their candidates elected. This year, there's only a 50-50 chance that they're willing to walk across the street to get their candidates elected.
Another important factor that Alter didn't consider is the 2010 election. A significant number of seats that Republicans won that year were seats that Democrats had only held for 4 years. Republicans won back Republican seats because voters realized that the newly-elected Democrats weren't the centrists that they campaigned as.
Reality matters except if you're living in an Alter-native universe.
A third factor that Mr. Alter ignored is the fact that the 2010 midterm flipped a ton of legislatures into GOP control. This article lays that out nicely:
Republicans picked up 680 seats in state legislatures, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, the most in the modern era. To put that number in perspective: In the 1994 GOP wave, Republicans picked up 472 seats. The previous record was in the post-Watergate election of 1974, when Democrats picked up 628 seats.
The GOP gained majorities in at least 14 state house chambers. They now have unified control, meaning both chambers, of 26 state legislatures.
That control is a particularly bad sign for Democrats as they go into the redistricting process. If the GOP is effective in gerrymandering districts in many of these states, it could eventually lead to the GOP actually expanding its majority in 2012.
Republicans now hold the redistricting "trifecta", both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship, in 15 states. They also control the Nebraska governorship and the unicameral legislature, taking the number up to 16. And in North Carolina, probably the state most gerrymandered to benefit Democrats, Republicans hold both chambers of the state legislature and the Democratic governor does not have veto power over redistricting proposals.
That means many of the seats the GOP won in 2010 were made stronger GOP districts through redistricting. The Democrats will likely retake some of the seats they lost in 2010. It's also likely that the GOP will take new seats in 2012.
At this point, it isn't unreasonable to predict the House to be close to a wash, with a few seats switching hands in either direction possible.
This sentence made me laugh uncontrollably:
The Obama camp is guarding against overconfidence and still betting the U.S. presidential race will be close.
Guarding against overconfidence? That's like the Germans saying they were guarding against overconfidence in north Africa after a string of Patton victories.
The recent spate of polling of likely voters from Purple Strategies and Rasmussen indicates that President Obama should be worried. Here's Purple Strategies' polling :
Mitt leads President Obama in Ohio, Florida and Virginia while President Obama leads Mitt in Colorado. Each of those polls is within the MOE, with Virginia being Mitt's biggest swing-state lead and Colorado being President Obama's biggest swing-state lead, both at 3% points.
The latest Rasmussen polling has Romney-Ryan leading President Obama in Wisconsin.
At what point will Jonathan Alter consider the possibility that the House will stay in GOP control and that President Obama is in trouble? Will there be a point when Jonathan Alter will admit those things?
Some Republicans lament that Ryan's emergence makes it easier for the Obama campaign to keep the campaign focus away from jobs by shifting it to entitlements. Republican strategist Mike Murphy posted on Twitter that someone should do a Nexis search to see whether 'economy' or 'Medicare' appeared more often in the news media in the 72 hours after the Ryan announcement. His point was clear: Any day the country is talking about Medicare instead of unemployment is a good day for Democrats.
That's why it isn't a good idea to trust idiots that haven't left DC for any appreciable amount of time. All that needs to be said about Murphy's credibility is that he's a former McCain campaign insider . We saw what kind of campaign that was.
Outside the DC echochamber, Medicare solvency is a big issue, not by itself but because it's a way to attack the ACA. With the ACA being hated by a significant majority of voters, attacking the ACA is almost as good as attacking President Obama on the economy and jobs.
In fact, if put together properly, it's a way to to tie the ACA together with the economy and unemployment. Small businesses across the country aren't expanding to stay under the 50 employee threshhold. I spoke with 2 St. Cloud businesspeople this week that confirmed that fact.
Alter is a DC creature. He wouldn't know anything about America's heartland if his life depended on it. That's why I usually ignore his columns. I couldn't ignore this one, though, because some BS just has to be destroyed. This was one of those times.
Tags: DC Beltway , Jonathan Alter , Media Bias , Mike Murphy , John McCain , Establishment , President Obama , Nancy Pelosi , Democrats , Mitt Romney , Redistricting , House of Representatives , Mediscare , GOP , Election 2012
Posted Saturday, August 18, 2012 1:28 PM
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