September 22, 2014
Sep 22 01:55 The truth about enrollments Sep 22 08:27 Progressives' assault on free speech Sep 22 14:32 Special interests support Dorholt Sep 22 17:42 Walker's surge starts Sep 22 19:44 Mark Dayton, aka Gov. Asleep at the Switch
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The truth about enrollments
Are We Hearing the Truth about Enrollment?
by Silence Dogood
For a number of years Tom Fauchald, a Bemidji State University faculty member, has provided information about enrollments within the MnSCU system. In his latest report, he compares the FYE fall enrollments for all of the MnSCU colleges and universities. The figure below shows the fall enrollment as of September 13, 2014 as compared to the equivalent date from the prior year:
The bottom line from this Figure is that the enrollment within MnSCU looks to be down 4.1% for fall.
The data for the MnSCU universities has been extracted and shown in the following figure:
Analysis of the data shows that the MnSCU universities are down 3.0% so the good news is that if the MnSCU system overall is down 4.1%, the two-year schools are down more than the MnSCU universities.
However, when you examine the data, it doesn't look quite so good for SCSU. The data shows that SCSU leads all of the MnSCU universities with a decline of 348.5 FYE. For all of the MnSCU universities, there is a drop of 792.8 FYE, so the drop at SCSU represents 44.0% of the loss. Why this is important is because it appears that both Moorhead and SCSU are down approximately the same amount on a percentage basis but the 5.9% for Moorhead represents 171.4 FYE and the 6.0% for SCSU represents a more than double 348.5 FYE.
Anyone familiar with university budgets knows that headcount enrollments are meaningless in terms of budgeting for two important reasons. Headcounts do not pay tuition and state allocations are based on FYE enrollment. The latest enrollment data supplied by Tom Fauchald shows that SCSU is on track for an enrolment decline significantly larger than the originally projected decline (3.2% last March) and the revised projected decline of 4-5%. The administration at SCSU has a long history of consistently underestimating the amount of enrollment decline. The budget consequences of underestimating enrollment decline is the overestimation of tuition received and the overestimation of students living in dormitories.
If the enrollment declines continue at SCSU much longer, pretty soon someone might notice that there actually is an enrollment problem. In fact, at last Thursday's SCSU Budget Advisory group meeting, increasing enrollment was mentioned as a means for increasing revenue to off set the current budget shortfall. Unfortunately, saying enrollment needs to increase to increase available revenue does not actually result in enrollment increases. In fact, reversing the five-year enrollment decline must begin with stabilization of enrollment before a dramatic reversal or for that matter a small reversal can begin.
Perhaps the 'right sizing' President Potter has frequently talked about has now overshot its enrollment target, but that is impossible to determine since no enrollment goals have ever been announced. Now we are hearing about increasing enrollment by over 900 FYE to solve the current budget shortfall resulting from declining enrollments. Based on recent enrollment history and administrative enrollment predictions, it looks like it is more likely that SCSU's enrollment will continue to decline more than the administration's predictions and difficult financial times will continue to be in SCSU's future.
Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 1:55 AM
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Progressives' assault on free speech
This op-ed in the Wall Street Journal should frighten civic-minded people of all political persuasions. It paints the picture of what hardline progressives specialize in:
Last year Wisconsin prosecutors - at the behest of Milwaukee's Democratic District Attorney John Chisholm - launched a secret criminal investigation involving almost every conservative advocacy group in the state. Armed law-enforcement personnel executed pre-dawn searches of the homes of consultants for the Wisconsin Club for Growth. The organization had engaged in "issue advocacy" - running ads that do not call for the election or defeat of a candidate - both before and during the extended cycle of recall elections for state officials following Gov. Scott Walker's collective-bargaining reforms in 2011. At the same time, subpoenas were directed to approximately 30 other conservative advocacy organizations and their bankers and accountants.
In other words, hardline leftists like John Chisholm perverted the criminal justice system for political purposes. Chisholm and his thugs had a goal to silence conservatives' political speech. It looks like they accomplished that mission while chilling political speech.
That's as un-American as it gets.
The investigation has been stopped by a preliminary injunction in O'Keefe v. Chisholm, and it is the subject of legal wrangling in state and federal courts, but if Mr. Chisholm's efforts were politically motivated, then he can already claim victory. As midterm elections near, Wisconsin conservative groups have been sufficiently intimidated amid the uncertain legal climate, or their money has been so depleted by courtroom fights, that they are not the force in the state that they were in 2012.
Chisholm has won this part of the fight but he hasn't won the war. What's needed is an army of thoughtful people who put the Bill of Rights ahead of short-term political gains. If that army doesn't exist, then Chisholm's won the war, not just this fight.
When short-term political gains are more important than fighting for the Bill of Rights, we've passed the tipping point as a nation. It's time to fight for the Bill of Rights. It's time to momentarily put partisanship aside and focus on doing what's right. Chilling political speech through the courts is abhorrent. Utilizing unconstitutional laws to chill political speech is disgusting.
It's been said that people shouldn't subscribe to conspiracy theories the things that can be explained by incompetence. This isn't about incompetence. It's a plan that Democrats utilize because they don't like taking criticism. They've used the IRS to stifle conservatives' political speech. Senate Democrats just attempted to gut the First Amendment. There's nothing accidental about the Democrats' campaign against the Bill of Rights.
Campaign-finance lawyers often say that the process is the punishment, and that has certainly been the case in Wisconsin. I have witnessed it first-hand as my organization, the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty, consults with many conservative advocacy groups across Wisconsin.
After the raids became public knowledge, the prosecutors claimed that they were investigating allegations that the Wisconsin Club for Growth and other groups had illegally "coordinated" their speech on political issues with Gov. Walker's campaign in violation of the state's baroque and often inscrutable campaign finance laws. The investigators seized sensitive and highly confidential records of a good part of the state's conservative infrastructure.
When Chisholm is laughed out of his final court, which will happen, he'll still have won because he will have silenced conservatives. Winning in court wasn't part of his fascist agenda. Chisholm's goal was to intimidate people into silence. That's called censorship.
I don't trust people being the arbiters of what's acceptable political speech and what isn't. That's why I cheered when the Senate's bill, predictably, went up in flames.
Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 8:27 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 22-Sep-14 08:38 AM
Gary:
Lets not forget we have that crazy prosecutor in Texas who charged Governor Perry with a crime because he first said he was going to veto a bill and then actually vetoed it.
Wow a governor was charged with a crime for doing their job!
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Special interests support Dorholt
In late July, I wrote this post to highlight the fundraising disparity between Jim Knoblach and Zach Dorholt. Dorholt's fundraising totals are pathetic, which is why I said this at the time:
What's interesting is reading Mr. Dorholt's campaign finance report. The reason it's interesting reading is because it has a lengthy list of out-of-state special interests contributions. That begs the question of who Mr. Dorholt represents. Does he represent his district or does he represent the DFL's Metrocrats? At this point, there's little question that Dorholt represents Speaker Thissen's wishes. He voted with Speaker Thissen 99% of the time on issues of importance.
Now that it's crunch time, Dorholt's special interest masters are spending on his behalf:
At the bottom of the lit piece, it says that it was "prepared and paid for by the Working America Minnesota Action Fund, 815 16th St. NW, Washington, DC in support of Zachary Dorholt. I decided to visit Working America's About Us page :
Together, and in solidarity with working people across the country, we fight for our common interests - good jobs, affordable health care, education, retirement security, corporate accountability and real democracy. We want to ensure our kids have a quality education, our grandparents don't have to decide between paying for their monthly medication or paying for food and that we will have a secure retirement when our working days have ended.
This lit piece was part of a door-knocking effort recently. It was given to a loyal reader of LFR, who then asked if I'd like to write about it. I didn't hesitate in saying yes to that opportunity. When pressed by this loyal reader of LFR, the person doing the door-knocking said that he was an independent. When questioned about how independent he really was, the door-knocker insisted that he was truly independent.
That's intellectually insulting.
Working America isn't a Minnesota organization. It's a national organization. How did they find out about Zach Dorholt? It'd be one thing if they were a Minnesota organization. It's a different story because they're a national organization.
This is just a hunch but I'm betting he got recognized for voting against in-home child care small businesses and for AFSCME and the SEIU in 2013. I'm betting that Dorholt got their attention by voting for raising Minnesota's minimum wage, too.
At this point, it's fair to ask who Dorholt represents. When I checked Dorholt's campaign finance report, nobody living in his district had contributed to him. In fact, 2 people from Minnesota and 2 people from North Dakota had contributed to his campaign. Five people from California, 2 people from Ft. Lauderdale and 2 people from Pennsylvania contributed to him but nobody from his district.
It's totally legitimate to ask who Dorholt represents because nobody supports him locally. His local BPOU hasn't even supported him. Then again, his BPOU has virtually nothing in their checking account. If Dorholt's neighbors won't support him, why should we think he'll represent this district?
It's pretty clear that he's bought and paid for by the progressives' special interests.
Originally posted Monday, September 22, 2014, revised 21-Nov 11:17 PM
Comment 1 by Gretchen Leisen at 22-Sep-14 06:06 PM
Thanks for analyzing the latest lit piece of Zach Dorholt's campaign. I was out today for Jim Knoblach's lit drop and I found several of these pieces which had not been picked up, and were shriveled from the rain this weekend. So, I looked it over and was also amazed at the claims and the blatant exaggerations about how Zach was helping the local citizens.
He is clearly out side his competency sphere. We need Jim Knoblach representing us,
Walker's surge starts
Conn Carroll's article highlights how the Mary Burke plagiarism scandal have hurt her:
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has surged ahead of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mary Burke, as Burke has been forced to fire campaign staff responsible for copying her campaign's job plan from other failed candidates.
The most recent Marquette Law School Poll, conducted September 11-14, found Walker enjoying a 3-point, 49-46 percent lead over Burke. This was a marked improvement for Walker who trailed Burke in Marquette's earlier poll, conducted August 21-23, by 49-47 percent.
That's a 6-point swing in less than a month. I'd call that significant. The Burke campaign's worries are legitimate, to say the least. The plagiarism is just the least of her worries, though:
Burke's week only got worse after BuzzFeed's Andrew Kaczynski reported that portions of Burke's jobs plan had been copied from four other Democratic candidates, three of whom went on to lose their elections.
Ed Morrissey's commentary highlights another potential difficulty for Burke's campaign:
And now Burke will certainly claim not to know that her other policy positions in her own campaign turn out to be cut-and-paste jobs, too. That will lead Wisconsin voters to ask just what about Burke's campaign is her own thoughts and words, as well as question her ability as an executive. So far, Burke hasn't exactly impressed as an executive with the running of her political campaign, and one has to wonder what voters can expect if she becomes the CEO of state government. With the majority of Wisconsin voters liking the direction of the state under Walker, these revelations will make them less and less likely to opt for new leadership, especially when the alternative is amateurish incompetence.
Burke's campaign is in danger of hitting a tipping point. If she isn't careful, she could get questioned for why she didn't scrutinize her jobs plan. After all, that's the cornerstone of her campaign. It isn't a positive reflection on her abilities that she didn't pay attention to the cornerstone of her candidacy.
Walker is no stranger to come from behind victories. In 2012, the same Marquette poll found Walker trailing his then-opponent Tom Barrett 46-47 percent. But Walker soon surged ahead of Barrett in Marquette's final poll before the election 50-44 percent, before beating Barrett easily 53-46 percent.
Burke's campaign is in a precarious position. If she doesn't do something to change Walker's momentum quickly, things could get real late real fast.
Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 5:42 PM
Comment 1 by Rex Newman at 22-Sep-14 06:22 PM
What is this "her jobs plan" business? If she had one, she would at least ask "why aren't you printing my words? Where did you get these words?" But since she had none, she had no standard of comparison. Given the legendary "eagerness" of campaign activists (both parties), I'd further suggest that she is a poor leader, hiring the wrong people and/or failing to properly supervise them.
Mark Dayton, aka Gov. Asleep at the Switch
This Star Tribune article isn't stunning from the perspective that people generally don't worry how they spend other people's money. It's startling from the perspective that Gov. Dayton didn't have a clue about this. First, here's what the Star Tribune is reporting:
Leaders of a Minneapolis nonprofit that serves low-income residents used taxpayer money to pay for a celebrity cruise and trips to Palm Beach and the Bahamas, according to a recently completed state audit.
Along with the trips, the audit by the state Department of Human Services found that the nonprofit's leaders spent public money on bonuses, golf, spa treatments, furniture, alcohol and even a personal car loan.
The audit concluded that the organization's longtime chief executive, Bill Davis, misspent hundreds of thousands of dollars from 2011 to 2013.
I'm not a prosecutor but I've got to think that it's illegal to use taxpayer money to make payments on a personal car loan. It isn't that I think that the other things listed are good governance. It's just that I think there might be a semi-plausible explanation for some of the things listed. This part jumps off the page at me:
Davis said his group, Community Action of Minneapolis, sent the state 112 pages of information in early September challenging some of the audit's findings. He said in an interview that information has been 'totally ignored' in the final report.
'I've been here for 24 years,' Davis said. 'I'm well aware of my responsibilities. I wouldn't be elected to national boards if I was doing things I shouldn't be doing.'
Let's look at that last statement about being "elected to national boards" if he was doing things he shouldn't have been doing. Of course he would. That wouldn't matter to people swimming in the same cesspool. They're cronies who think that they're entitled to the perks. In this instance, Mr. Davis went too far.
This part is jaw-dropping stunning:
Auditors blamed Community Action's board, which includes several well-known politicians and community leaders, for a lack of oversight and for personally benefiting from $34,892 worth of activities that 'do not appear to serve a business purpose, and are considered waste and abuse as defined in state policy.'
Those activities included two weekend trips, between 2011 and 2013, to Arrowwood Resort in Alexandria, where board members and senior management spent $9,000 for lodging, $3,200 for food and $900 for spas.
Davis defended the trips as a 'small gesture on our part to offer them a moment of relaxation or entertainment. It's not like we do this every single week of the year.'
Spending $13,100 isn't a 'small gesture on our part." That's spending lavishly and/or extravagantly. Other than identifying that fact, I'd like to know what Community Action of Minneapolis's employees did to justify this lavish spending.
Our taxes are paying for a significant portion of Community Action's budget:
Community Action had an $11 million budget in fiscal year 2011, with over half of its revenue coming from government grants. The audit's findings put Community Action at risk of losing at least $2.8 million in aid.
Initially, Mark Dayton responded to Jeff Johnson's call for an extensive audit of NPOs by saying "The decades-old accusation that Minnesota government recklessly wastes money on people who are poor, sick, or elderly is unfair and unfounded." Now that the facts are out, Gov. Dayton is singing a different tune:
Gov. Mark Dayton on Monday said that a Star Tribune report of a nonprofit using state funds to subsidize cruises, a director's car lease and spa treatments was very concerning and alarming. "I was personally really appalled," Dayton said. "I take it very seriously."
Now that it's been proven that Community Action of Minneapolis spent taxpayers' money foolishly, Gov. Dayton is backtracking. Fast. We don't need a governor who takes things seriously after the fact. What's needed is someone who takes steps to prevent it from happening in the first place.
Posted Monday, September 22, 2014 7:44 PM
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