October 26, 2014
Oct 26 07:37 The gender gap that matters Oct 26 08:29 DC elites see trees, not forest Oct 26 09:04 Johnson cuts Dayton's lead in half Oct 26 09:55 South Dakota rounding into shape Oct 26 16:07 St. Cloud Times' bias exposed
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The gender gap that matters
Byron York's reporting from the campaign trail has been fantastic all month long. Still, this article might be York's best work. Here's why:
DENVER, Colo. -- There is a gender gap in the Senate race here in Colorado, and, contrary to popular perception, it is Mark Udall's problem.
The race between the incumbent Democratic senator and his Republican challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner, has at times been a mire of gender politics. For months, Udall attacked Gardner incessantly on the issues of abortion and birth control, in an effort to run up an advantage among women voters so large that it would ensure victory on November 4.
But that's not how things are working out. According to a variety of public and private polling, while Udall enjoys a lead among Colorado women, Gardner has a far bigger advantage among men. The difference is so pronounced that if it continues through election day, Gardner will win.
Udall's mistake apparently is that he thinks women are the only voters that show up at the polls. If he'd thought this through and if he had a positive agenda to run on, he would've noticed that guys are seriously unhappy with Colorado's Democrats over passing gun control legislation.
Though this has been a tight race throughout the summer, Sen. Udall never got out of his pre-planned approach of relying on the now tired 'War on women' storyline. He didn't notice that lots of people love their new jobs at fracking sites. He didn't notice the people that got laid off when gun manufacturers left the state because Gov. Hickenlooper signed the Democrats' strict gun control bills into law.
This isn't good news for Sen. Udall:
There are a lot of competing numbers on the gender gap, and none of them are good for Udall. A recent Quinnipiac poll found Udall leading by four points among women, but Gardner leading by 13 points among men. Another recent poll, by the Democratic firm PPP, also found Udall up by four points among women, with Gardner leading by 11 points among men. A CNN poll more than a week ago found Udall leading by nine points among women, but Gardner leading by an astonishing 20 points among men. Any of those scenarios would be disastrous for the Democrat.
Gardner's mission through Election Day should be to keep following the game plan. What he's been doing is working. Keep connecting with Coloradans. That'll help inspire them to show up at their polling station and vote to elect Gardner.
Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 7:37 AM
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DC elites see trees, not forest
If Salena Zito's theory is right, which I'm betting it is, DC elites will badly misread the American people :
Late this summer, along the edges of this Mountain State town, a homemade sign jutted from the edge of a country road. It read, simply: 'Change is coming.' A few miles west, toward Coopers Rock State Forest, another sign almost hidden by a cornfield read, 'Change is in the air.'
DC elites have tried holding onto tired incumbents or tried running candidates that sound like the Washington insiders that created this mess. That's why Joni Ernst's campaign is doing well in Iowa. That's why Cory Gardner's campaign is going well in Colorado. That's why Tom Cotton's campaign is going well in Arkansas.
Colorado's Senate race is just stunning: Congressman Cory Gardner is the best candidate the Republicans have in the field, despite being pounded for nine months by incumbent Democrat Mark Udall. In fact, Gardner's image has only gotten better - he lifts people up, he's an optimist and happy to be a conservative; in contrast, Udall's campaign is malpractice.
Joni Ernst in Iowa is a strong candidate for Republicans. Yes, she's conservative, but her personal strength is what independents like most; she is proof that the GOP can fix its problems with female candidates and voters. Tom Cotton in Arkansas is serious, smart, disciplined, and part of the next generation of Republicans who run on what they have done, not on shrill ideology.
Democrats have spent their money on shrill-sounding ads attacking their opponents as a) shills of the Koch Brothers, b) waging a war against women or c) both. They'll turn out their progressive base but they won't win a majority of independent voters.
It is a sign that has been waving in the weeds for more than a year, since the 2013 scandals involving the IRS, the Department of Justice and the Department of Veterans Affairs started rolling out. But it appears that this administration, Democrats in general and Washington's political class kept driving past those signs and missing them.
This isn't just about Democrats, though they'll get hit the worst this November. I wouldn't say that people hate Republicans but I'd say that they want to see Republicans become the party of sane-sounding solutions.
They want a political party that respects the rule of law. They want a political party that limits government's authority to reach inside their lives. (Just ask Catherine Engelbrecht on that. Just ask Andy Johnson and his wife about overly intrusive government that doesn't respect private property rights.)
The general sense is that Washington exists to serve itself, not the people back in their districts or their states. Obamacare is the perfect example of that. The Democrats wanted it so badly that some progressive politicians were willing to vote for it even if it cost them their jobs.
Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 8:29 AM
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Johnson cuts Dayton's lead in half
The biggest takeaway from the Strib's latest Minnesota Poll article is that Jeff Johnson has cut Gov. Dayton's lead in half:
Gov. Mark Dayton maintains a lead over Republican Jeff Johnson in a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, but Johnson gained some ground while Dayton's support stayed flat.
The poll taken Oct. 20-22 shows Dayton leading Johnson, 45 percent to 38 percent, with Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet at 5 percent. In September, the poll showed Dayton at 45, Johnson at 33 and Nicollet at 1 percent. With Election Day just over a week away, the DFL governor has shown a consistent polling advantage.
More Minnesotans also now say they have made up their minds about the race, with 10 percent still undecided, compared to 20 percent five weeks ago. They would have to break in large numbers for Johnson if he is to overcome Dayton's lead.
Jeff Johnson is still fighting an uphill fight. Still, he's got to be happy that he's closing the gap while he's getting better name recognition.
Johnson's campaign has leveled charges of incompetence against Dayton, and spokesman Jeff Bakken said the Star Tribune poll shows Johnson has room to catch up and pass Dayton amid a national political climate that Republicans see as favorable. 'All the momentum in this race is on Jeff's side, and the result is going to come down to turnout,' Bakken said. 'And in the midterm election in this political environment, we like Jeff's odds.'
The DFL's GOTV operation is generally thought of as being superior to the GOP's GOTV operation. This election will tell the tale of whether those reputations are deserved or not. It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP's GOTV operation performed better than expected.
Today marks the start of the final sprint to the finish line. Thanks to these poll results, it's likely to be an interesting finish.
Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 9:04 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 26-Oct-14 12:15 PM
Gary:
I think the biggest thing that can be taken out of this is Mark Dayton's biggest argument to vote for him isn't working.
His argument is that I'm the person who fixed the mess that Minnesota is in and I'm the person who is going to fix it. Now has Dayton moved up at all in his number? No it's still at 45? You will think that running those commercials will help move him up? they haven't!
Dayton really can't do anything to try to move his percentage up. Given that if Dayton continues to poll 45 and the independence candidate runs at 5 it looks like Johnson is heading for a 50-45 point win over Dayton.
What do you think?
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by J. Ewing at 27-Oct-14 04:20 PM
I think that a Strib poll showing Johnson trailing by that little portends VICTORY! If they ever show a Republican winning in their poll, it will never be published.
Comment 3 by Gary Gross at 27-Oct-14 04:42 PM
Jerry, Times are changing. Glen Taylor bought the Strib & they're using a legitimate polling company. Their reporting is better. (It still isn't great by any stretch of the imagination, though.) In another decade, the Strib might reach respectability.
South Dakota rounding into shape
Predictably, South Dakota is rounding into shape :
Republican attacks on Democrat Rick Weiland and Independent Larry Pressler appear to have worked, making it more likely that the GOP will pick up the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, as long expected. Republican Mike Rounds, a former two-term GOP governor, found himself in shockingly uncomfortable position earlier this month, but his standing has improved in the eyes of both strong and weak Republican voters, as well as among Independents.
Support for Pressler, a one-time GOP senator who has said that he would be a friend of Obama if elected to the Senate and has acknowledged that he voted for Obama, has melted away over the past few weeks.
Rounds' improved position in the race, assuming that the trend holds, means GOP strategists will now have to worry primarily about only a couple of their own seats, in Kansas and Georgia, two red states where Republican nominees have handed ammunition to their opponents.
This was predictable, especially after this stunt:
Weiland never was a serious candidate. Pressler was a challenger...until he said that a) he'd vote to keep Harry Reid as majority leader, b) he supports Obamacare and c) he's a personal friend of President Obama's. It was downhill after that.
Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 9:55 AM
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St. Cloud Times' bias exposed
Proving that they're most interested in pumping up the DFL, the St. Cloud Times didn't even bother interviewing Jim Knoblach , the GOP-endorsed candidate for HD-14B. Meanwhile, they positively gushed about "impressive DFL challenger Emily Jensen." Ms. Jensen is still a student at St. Ben's while running for Jeff Howe's seat.
Saying that the Times lack of professionalism is showing is understatement. This afternoon, I confirmed with Jim Knoblach wasn't contacted by the Times. Consequently, he wasn't interviewed about the Times' endorsement. Here's what they wrote about the candidates for HD-14B:
Two very strong candidates, DFLer Dorholt and former GOP Rep. Jim Knoblach, are vying in a marquee race to represent a diverse district that covers mostly the eastern half of the St. Cloud metro area. Through his personal, business and community experiences, Dorholt is best positioned to represent a district that's home to a diverse mix of young people, new residents, and deep-rooted homeowners and businesses.
Reflective of that constituency, Dorholt has been part of a DFL legislative majority that has enacted many changes benefiting most of those constituents. Look no further than the minimum wage hike, expanded health coverage, and investing more in B-12 education while curbing the costs of higher education.
Challenger Knoblach served in the House from 1995-2006, including as chair of the powerful House Capital Investment and House Ways and Means Committees. In those roles, he proved himself to be a business-minded fiscal conservative, even when it sometimes meant minimal support for measures that directly benefited his district and the St. Cloud area.
Again, both candidates are well-qualified. Dorholt gets the nod, though, because his priorities better match the diverse needs of this district.
The Times didn't just refuse to interview Jim Knoblach. When they published their endorsement, they threw in this cheap shot, too:
In those roles, he proved himself to be a business-minded fiscal conservative, even when it sometimes meant minimal support for measures that directly benefited his district and the St. Cloud area.
Never mind the fact that Dorholt did nothing to question St. Cloud State's questionable financial decisions while he was the Vice-Chair of the House Higher Ed Committee. That isn't setting the right priorities for his district. Dorholt's willingness to ignore what's happening at SCSU while he's vice-chair of the House Higher Ed Committee stinks of irresponsibility.
Further, Dorholt's vote for sales taxes on warehousing services and farm equipment repairs weren't in the interests of his district or St. Cloud. Dorholt's vote for the Senate Office Building definitely wasn't a vote for this district's priorities. His silence during this year's session on fixing Minnesota's roads and bridges and the DFL legislature's refusal to fix Minnesota's potholes was disgraceful.
Simply put, Zach Dorholt didn't show leadership during this session despite his being a vice-chair of an important committee.
Finally, the Times calls this "a marquee race." If that's true, why didn't they even bother interviewing one of the candidates? From what I've seen, and I can only base this on the Times' actions, the Times decided long ago who they were endorsing. That's likely why they didn't bother interviewing Jim Knoblach, the most qualified candidate for the job.
The Times has a history of doing this type of thing. In 2008, the Times endorsed Rob Jacobs when he ran for Dan Severson's seat. That year, Jacobs said he wasn't an expert on transportation issues or health care . The Times endorsed him anyway. 2008 was a strong year for the DFL. Dan Severson defeated Jacobs by 10 points.
The Times has a bigger readership. I just wish that they were professionals.
Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 4:07 PM
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