October 17-18, 2014
Oct 17 02:28 Mills wins key endorsement Oct 17 03:19 McFadden's impressive closing statement Oct 17 03:30 Westrom pulls ahead of Peterson Oct 17 04:36 Mills v. Nolan, Westrom v. Peterson, Severson v. Simon Oct 17 10:44 Dayton's latest MNsure crisis Oct 17 11:22 Dayton deflects MNsure disaster Oct 17 15:42 Where will Nolan's money go? Oct 18 04:54 Ritchie in an expensive suit Oct 18 11:01 Westrom blunts Peterson's issue
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Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mills wins key endorsement
Stewart Mills just won an important endorsement :
Don't believe everything you've heard about Stewart Mills, except that he's the clear choice for voters on Nov. 4 to send to Washington to represent Northeastern Minnesota's sprawling 8th Congressional District.
Don't believe he's a rich kid who never had to work a day in his life, as some have charged this election season. The truth is he scrubbed toilets and mopped floors for his family's Mills Fleet Farm stores. And today he's vice president in charge of administering a health plan for the chain's 6,000 employees and their families. A job of such importance requires plenty of hard work.
The Duluth New Tribune's endorsement is one of the most important endorsements from Minnesota's Eighth District. It isn't the only endorsement that matters but it's important.
What makes this endorsing editorial important is how it takes Rick Nolan to the woodshed. Here's a great example of that:
Don't believe critics who say Mills would privatize Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid if elected. Even after the Republican nominee flatly denied it at Tuesday's forum, Nolan continued to make the baseless accusation.
'Yes, there have been some Republicans that have advanced different ideas, but those are not me. For Rep. Nolan to attempt to put words in my mouth because somebody somewhere in the Republican Party advanced one idea - . You know what? I can only state what I believe and what I will stand for in Washington,' Mills said. 'I believe in preserving and protecting Social Security and Medicare.'
Nolan had his script a year ago. No matter who he ran against, Nolan's plan was to accuse his opponent of a) representing the 1 percent and b) wanting to privatize Social Security. Why trust a person who won't listen to what others are saying and who thinks he's a mind reader? That wasn't the only time the Tribune's editorial board criticized Nolan:
Don't believe Mills is a spoiled elitist, either, as this fall's bad-mouthing further has purported. We all have our less-than-mature moments, but at Tuesday's forum, Mills was respectful, he listened politely when it wasn't his turn to speak, and he consistently referred to his opponents as 'Rep. Nolan' and 'Mr. Sandman.' (Ray 'Skip' Sandman of Duluth is the Green Party nominee in the 8th District. Voters can hope Sandman stays involved in public service after his thoughtful, sincere and genuine performance Tuesday.)
By contrast, at least twice Nolan cut off Mills while he was talking; referred to him at least once as 'Stew'; talked about his 'dad and your granddaddy's store,' as though speaking to a small child; and on a couple of occasions turned to Mills and lectured him like he would an underling. The moments were disrespectful, rude, inappropriate and less than congressional.
It's astonishing how disrespectful Rick Nolan is. This wasn't the first time Nolan was dismissive of Mills. It's just that this debate was just the biggest stage where Nolan was condescending, undisciplined, dismissive and disrespectful.
Beyond that, Nolan's anti-war policy is reckless:
Critics also have charged that Mills has no clue about foreign policy. But when asked about the threat of ISIS, Mills offered a detailed, realistic and honest assessment while Nolan said, simply, we can't afford wars overseas. As true as that may be, reality is dictating a different course.
That's downright dangerous thinking from a sitting member of Congress. Does Nolan think that we're safe as long as we don't bother ISIS? That's incredibly naive. That type of naivete can't be tolerated when terrorists are at war with us. Mills sounded like the wise congressman:
'We don't have a choice in this one,' Mills said. 'They have a direct stated intention of attacking Americans (and of) attacking America and American interests abroad. The current track that we're on is the right track because we need to leverage our air power we need to work with our allies in the region : making sure that we're able to give them the training and the arms (and) the logistical support and the intelligence they need so this particular coalition can be successful in undoing our mistake of creating the vacuum (caused by the premature U.S. withdrawal of troops from Iraq). We don't have a choice in this. We can't bury our heads in the sand while there are people being beheaded - while there are Americans being beheaded.'
Pretending that terrorists will leave us alone is foolish. That isn't reality. As Mills said, ISIL has said that they want to attack Americans. They want to hoist their flag from the White House. ISIL has a history of doing what they say they're going to do.
It's time to retire Nolan. He's outlived his political shelf life. He isn't a good listener. His policies are older than the rock formations of the Iron Range.
Posted Friday, October 17, 2014 2:28 AM
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McFadden's impressive closing statement
It's still too early to say that the Franken-McFadden race is a top opportunity to flip a seat from blue to red. Still, MSNBC's Mark Halperin seems to think it's a possibility:
Here's the transcript of Halperin's commentary:
The other one to look at is Minnesota. It isn't talked about much. You always see at the presidential level and statewide races a natural tightening at the end. It is a politically divided state even though it's normally thought of as a blue state. Al Franken has gotten a visit from Bill Clinton, other big Democrat surrogates. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw television money pour in there from both sides at the end to make that race competitive.
This race will tighten dramatically towards the end. McFadden's finishing kick has started on a positive, uplifting note, starting with this promise:
Here's the transcript of the clip:
KTTC ANNOUNCER: Well, US Senate candidate Mike McFadden made a stop in Rochester to sign a contract with the people of Minnesota. With a background in business, he said that drafting a contract detailing his agenda just made sense. In the contract, McFadden promises to visit all 87 counties each year, to hold quarterly townhall meetings and to post reasons behind every vote that he casts on his website if elected to the US Senate. After signing the contract, he talked about the Ebola virus. He says he supports additional screenings at Minneapolis International.
MCFADDEN: I think this is a huge issue. It's the role of the federal government to keep our citizens safe. That's why I think we need to be much more proactive on Ebola screening. It's a big, big issue.
That's the type of contract that will appeal to Minnesotans. We love hands-on democracy. We insist that politicians mix and mingle with the people they represent. That isn't what Sen. Franken has done. He's done the opposite, in fact.
Earlier this week, McFadden introduced plans to help middle class families :
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike McFadden said Wednesday tax incentives for parents with children in day care should be consolidated and made available to parents who choose to care for their kids themselves.
McFadden cited the financial squeeze on middle class parents as he unveiled his child tax proposal. He said consolidating credits and making tax benefits available to parents who stay home with their children makes sense.
'A working mother may want to work part-time or may want to care for her child directly rather than to use a child care program. And right now under the current program, she doesn't have that option if she wants to avail herself to some of these programs,' McFadden told reporters after touring a business in Mounds View.
Anything that helps parents spend more time directly raising their children is a positive thing. It'll be interesting to hear Sen. Franken explain why he didn't think of this during his time in office.
After all, he's been telling everyone in Minnesota that he's the champion of the middle class.
The reason why Sen. Franken didn't propose this is because this initiative would kill AFSCME's attempt to force unionization down Minnesota parents' throats. If parents suddenly had the ability to raise their own children, AFSCME's ability to grow their union would disappear instantly.
Posted Friday, October 17, 2014 3:19 AM
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Westrom pulls ahead of Peterson
The Tarrance Group's latest polling on the Westrom-Peterson race isn't good news for Collin Peterson:
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from our recently completed telephone survey of N=300 registered 'likely' voters in Minnesota's Seventh Congressional District. The Tarrance Group was commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) to conduct a telephone survey in this district. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +5.8% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered October 12-14, 2014.
Torrey Westrom has pulled ahead in the race for the congressional seat long held by DFL incumbent Collin Peterson. Westrom has made steady improvement throughout the campaign and now eclipses the incumbent. Turnout modeling puts the race at 48% Westrom and 46% Peterson, with only 6% undecided. Those undecided voters do not seem likely to break toward an incumbent they know so well.
With a margin of error of 5.8% and with the race being this close, this race is anything but settled. Also, it's always wise to question private partisan polls. Still, this can't give the Peterson campaign comfort.
It's noteworthy that the KSTP-SurveyUSA poll showed Peterson leading 50%-41%, with a distinct oversampling of Democrats:
Sen. Westrom has fought a great campaign. He's raised the money to be competitive. He's travelled the district to increase his name recognition. He's enunciated a message that's resonating with voters. In short, he's given Peterson a legitimate reason to worry.
It isn't accidental that the DCCC has spent a few fists full of money on advertising. That advertising has mostly focused on criticizing Sen. Westrom for his alleged role in the Dayton government shutdown. Prior to this partisan private polling, this already figured to be Peterson's toughest re-election fight yet.
That fight just gained in intensity. The thing is that the DCCC has already thrown the kitchen sink at Torrey. They don't have many bullets left in the clip.
Entering this summer, conventional wisdom was that Stewart Mills had a better shot at defeating Rick Nolan than Torrey Westrom had of defeating Collin Peterson. That's mostly due to the fact that Rick Nolan wasn't the top-tier candidate that Peterson was. Apparently, Peterson isn't as popular in the district as his recent election numbers indicated.
Going into this summer, I thought Republicans would win either defeat Peterson or Nolan. I didn't think they'd defeat both of them. I still have trouble believing that they'll accomplish that feat but it's definitely a better possibility today than a month ago.
If Republicans flip both seats, it'll be bad night for the DFL and for Nancy Pelosi.
Posted Friday, October 17, 2014 3:30 AM
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Mills v. Nolan, Westrom v. Peterson, Severson v. Simon
Friends, this is as close to a GOP trifecta as we've seen in quite some time:
Stewart Mills leads Rick Nolan
Minnesota's Secretary of State race heats up
Westrom leads Peterson in private polling
If the MNGOP wins these three races, it'll be a big night for Minnesota Republicans. It's still too early to predict victories in these races but I'd rather be the Republican in each of these races than be the Democrat.
Posted Friday, October 17, 2014 4:36 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 17-Oct-14 12:13 PM
Gary:
Can't we dream bigger?
governor Johnson
Attorney General Newman.
State House under Republican control.
Then the bonus will be Waltz being kicked out of the first district. I suppose I'm asking too much for Keith and Betty to be kicked out.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 17-Oct-14 02:30 PM
Walter, I didn't include those races because I didn't want my articles to be 2,000-3,000 words. I chop them up & keep them focused so the most important points aren't lost in the 27th paragraph.
I fully expect the House to flip. I'd rate that at 75% minimum. AG Newman might be a stretch but that's just a guess. I'm far from writing off Gov.-Elect Johnson.
That race will definitely tighten.
Dayton's latest MNsure crisis
When Gov. Dayton's Department of Commerce announced MNsure's rate increases, skeptical statements poured in. State Senate Republicans put together this interactive map to spread the truth that Gov. Dayton's Department of Commerce wouldn't. KSTP's Tom Hauser says people are justified in worried about big health insurance premium spikes :
With great fanfare earlier this month, Minnesota Department of Commerce officials announced Minnesota would continue to have among the "lowest health insurance rates in the country." They were referring to health insurance sold through MNsure, which they said would only increase an "average of 4.5 percent."
That modest increase was immediately met with skepticism by Republican opponents of Gov. Mark Dayton's administration. However, the health insurance industry is also throwing cold water on the notion that Minnesotans will see rates go up just 4.5 percent. Whether buying insurance in the MNsure system or through the private market, for most Minnesotans reality will not match the rosy 4.5 percent "average increase."
"You've got to remember, the majority of consumers who have individual health insurance policies did not buy them through MNsure," says Alycia Reidl of the Minnesota Association of Health Underwriters. "Most of them are outside of MNsure at this point, and they haven't received their renewals yet. As they start to receive them, they're going to understand they have significant increases facing them."
Reidl made that point to the MNsure Board at their first meeting since the new MNsure rates were announced. She told them many Minnesotans now have the mistaken notion their rates will go up only 4.5 percent. Instead, Reidl says they're likely to get "sticker shock" when they see their increases. "The increases that are happening are putting our clients in a really difficult situation which is putting us in a difficult situation as the bearer of that news," Reidl told the MNsure Board.
That's just the tip of the iceberg. Here's another part of that iceberg:
When Gov. Dayton says that Minnesota's health insurance rates are the cheapest in the nation, it's important to highlight the fact that, though that's true, it's after three-fourths of the people received rate increases while transitioning from the policies they liked to Obamacare-approved policies. The next logical question would be about how big those premium increases were. You ask. I'll deliver:
According to that graphic, 28.3% of people surveyed got rate increases of 11-20%. Another 30% of the people got rate increase ranging between 21%-30%. Another 15% of people got rate increases of 31%-40%. Those statistic don't fit with the bill's title of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
I've said it before and I'll repeat it here. When the ACA kicked in, most everyone's premiums spiked. That means that Minnesota's premiums are the least terrible premiums in the nation. They're a better grade of terrible.
Jeff Johnson is calling on Gov. Dayton to apologize for lying to Minnesota about the rate increases:
'A few weeks ago, Mark Dayton stood before the press and flat-out lied to Minnesotans. Dayton's claim that MNsure rates are going up an average of just 4.5% next year is completely bogus, and he knows it. I call on Governor Dayton to come clean and apologize to Minnesotans for lying to us. Enough is enough.'
I'm predicting that Gov. Dayton, or one of his paid shills, will release a statement saying that Commissioner Johnson's accusations are the actions of a desperate candidate who'll say anything in his attempt to win an election. Commissioner Johnson, I'd have a statement prepared to respond to Gov. Dayton's unresponsive response. Here's what I'd put in that statement:
Gov. Dayton, why are you accusing "Alycia Reidl of the Minnesota Association of Health Underwriters" of lying? In the days ahead, our campaign will be releasing stories from families throughout Minnesota who will verify MAHU's report.
Minnesota doesn't need a governor who won't admit that MNsure, Obamacare in Minnesota, is an unmitigated disaster. Minnesota needs a governor with integrity and fresh ideas that will take Minnesota in the right direction.
I'm being charitable by saying Gov. Dayton's Commerce Department used slippery math in the MNsure rate increase report. Gov. Dayton's actions inform us that he isn't a man of integrity. He's a man just hoping to get past November 4th.
Posted Friday, October 17, 2014 10:44 AM
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Dayton deflects MNsure disaster
I predicted that Gov. Dayton would attempt to deflect criticism from the bogus health insurance premium rate increase report. I was right :
Republican Jeff Johnson seized Thursday on new insurance data to accuse Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton of lying about how much health premiums will increase for coverage next year.
Johnson said the Dayton administration is lowballing the medical premium estimates for political advantage. Dayton shot back that Johnson is ignoring that people are free to shop around for the best deal and said his charge demonstrates a rival who "gets more desperate by the day."
Gov. Dayton's response was predictable. In fact, I predicted it. Gov. Dayton's dismissive attitude won't sit well with Alycia Reidl. Here's what she told the MNsure Board of Directors:
'You've got to remember, the majority of consumers who have individual health insurance policies did not buy them through MNsure,' says Alycia Reidl of the Minnesota Association of Health Underwriters. 'Most of them are outside of MNsure at this point, and they haven't received their renewals yet. As they start to receive them, they're going to understand they have significant increases facing them.'
Reidl made that point to the MNsure Board at their first meeting since the new MNsure rates were announced. She told them many Minnesotans now have the mistaken notion their rates will go up only 4.5 percent. Instead, Reidl says they're likely to get 'sticker shock' when they see their increases. 'The increases that are happening are putting our clients in a really difficult situation which is putting us in a difficult situation as the bearer of that news,' Reidl told the MNsure Board.
Gov. Dayton's dismissiveness is only exceeded by his dishonesty. The Minnesota Association of Health Underwriters are experts on the size of rate increases because they're working with it every day. By contrast, Gov. Dayton has shown that he doesn't know what's in the bills he's signed. If I'm forced to choose between Alycia Reidl or Gov. Dayton on the issue of trust, that's an easy decision. Hint: I wouldn't trust the sitting governor of Minnesota as much as I'd trust Ms. Reidl.
The administration's 4.5 percent average leaves out PreferredOne, a dominant player in MNsure last year that isn't selling policies through the exchange this year. Details that surfaced Wednesday show its customers could see up to 60-percent premium increases if they want to keep their policies and buy them away from the exchange for 2015.
Gov. Dayton is fond of saying that PreferredOne "'misjudged the market'" last year by offering lower costs than bigger competitors in an attempt to gain market share." Whether that's true or not, the reality is that PreferredOne's rates are going up in a big way. Minnesotans will experience sticker shock when they get their renewal notices.
Commissioner Johnson should be asking Minnesotans who've seen their new rates for 2015 if they're feeling the Dayton-DFL middle class squeeze. I'd remind people that Republicans didn't vote for MNsure, which means the double-digit increases they're seeing are Gov. Dayton's and the DFL's fault. They passed it. They own this disaster.
Gov. Dayton can make petulant child-like comments insinuating that Jeff Johnson isn't being honest. What Gov. Dayton can't do is hide from MAHU's well-documented numbers. Those numbers show how expensive health insurance is through MNsure. Gov. Dayton's hissy fits won't change those facts because facts are stubborn things.
Posted Friday, October 17, 2014 11:22 AM
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Where will Nolan's money go?
After last night's bombshell polling data from Minnesota's Eighth District, the next questions are quite logical. First, when will the DCCC and Nancy Pelosi's PAC pull their money from the Mills-Nolan race? Second, when that money is pulled, where will it be spent?
The conventional wisdom is that the money pulled from Nolan's race would be spent on Collin Peterson's race. I don't think that's what they'll decide. They've already pumped millions of dollars into the Westrom-Peterson race. It hasn't hurt Westrom a bit. Next, they've thrown everything at Torrey, including the proverbial kitchen sink. Torrey Westrom keeps gaining. In fact, Torrey will campaign tomorrow with Mike McFadden:
McFadden knows that his message sells in the Seventh. He's campaigned with Torrey before, too. It's obvious that they feed off each other and complement each other nicely. Why would Pelosi's superPAC or the DCCC shift money into that situation?
Finally and most importantly, a little money pays for tons of ads in the 7th. How much more money does Collin Peterson need to win that race? People know Peterson because he's finishing his twelfth term. If the first and second ad buys didn't put Peterson over the top, why would the DCCC think that the third and fourth ad buys will? Known commodities are known commodities. If they don't sell right away, they won't jump off the shelf later.
Pelosi's superPAC and the DCCC have other seats that need propping up. Nolan's seat is history. He's an ancient candidate whose policies are from the 1970s. There's nothing that indicates he'll catch fire in the last 2 weeks.
Peterson has a better shot at winning but that's because he's frequently won with over 60% of the vote. He's either popular and heading for victory or people have tired of him and he's heading for defeat. There isn't a middle ground with him.
Ken Martin, the DFL, Steve Simon, Gov. Dayton and Sen. Franken are watching these races. That's because they know their races are based, at least partially, on doing well in these districts. If Nolan and Peterson lose, Gov. Dayton's, Sen. Franken's and the DFL's path to victory gets complicated fast.
Posted Friday, October 17, 2014 3:42 PM
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Ritchie in an expensive suit
Last night, I watched the Almanac Roundtable debate featuring the candidates for Secretary of State. The lasting impression I left with was straightforward. Steve Simon is Mark Ritchie in an expensive suit. He's thoroughly indoctrinated in liberal ideology with regards to voting fraud. The other thing about him is that he apparently thinks voters are incredibly stupid.
Let's take that last one first. After Dan Severson highlighted the vulnerabilities of Minnesota's election system, Rep. Simon replied, saying "Would Minnesota have the highest voter turnout rate in the nation if people didn't trust it?" That's a nice-sounding answer but it doesn't have anything to do with whether the system is secure. The fact that Democrats continually talk about Minnesota's election system as the nation's gold standard is because they don't want people checking out the details of whether the system is fraught with vulnerabilities.
Rep. Simon's answer totally ignores the vulnerabilities in Minnesota's voting system. I know more than a little about this since I wrote a series of articles highlighting those vulnerabilities. (See here , here , here and here .)
Part IV is particularly disturbing because it shows how protective the election machine is of their system:
Thanks to KSTP-TV's reporting, we learned that cities threw "up legal roadblocks" to their investigation. We learned that Bloomington "even suggested that felony charges could be pursued against" KSTP-TV if they "reported what [they] found."
A system that's the gold standard for election participation shouldn't threaten people examining the system. They especially shouldn't threaten reporters investigating Minnesota's election system. The thought that they'd throw up legal roadblocks and suggest that they'd file felony charges against KSTP's reporters strongly suggests that Minnesota's election system is anything but impervious to voter fraud.
The DFL says that there's little proof of fraud existing. That isn't true but let's say it is. The video shows that there's a number of vulnerabilities in the absentee ballot system. Why wouldn't we want to eliminate those vulnerabilities?
Another of the DFL's chanting points is that we should want high voter participation rates. That sounds nice but it comes with a catch. The insinuation always comes with the suggestion that everyone who requests a ballot should get a ballot. There's never a mention that this should be done within the context of the requirements in Minnesota's constitution.
Steve Simon doesn't have Mark Ritchie's history of corruption. Still, Simon is nothing if not a puppet doing the same things Mark Ritchie did. That's a step sideways after a major step backwards in 2006. We don't need Mark Ritchie in a better suit. We need a man of integrity who won't blindly incorporate the DFL's chanting points into Minnesota state statutes.
Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 4:54 AM
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Westrom blunts Peterson's issue
Collin Peterson's calling card throughout the years has been that he's an influential member on the Agriculture Committee. He's still running on that calling card, though it's fair to question how potent it is this time. Torrey Westrom is reminding people Peterson isn't the only candidate in the race who knows agriculture issues :
Agriculture is another major issue for Westrom, who currently serves on the state legislative agriculture committee. He said that serving on the agriculture committee in Washington, like his opponent currently does, "sure would be" a priority for him.
"I grew up on a dairy farm, I have an agricultural background," Westrom said. "I have been a strong proponent for agriculture and farmers in the state Legislature, and I will continue to be a strong ardent voice for agriculture in Washington."
Torrey Westrom knows agriculture issues. Here's an important difference between Westrom and Peterson:
Peterson has said that he supports the pipeline, but Westrom urged that his support of the project is not enough.
"We have rail car shortages because of this Obama administration's policy supported by the Democratic leadership," Westrom said. "You support the pipeline and then you go support leadership that's gonna oppose it? That doesn't make sense."
"That's a decision I have to make as a new congressman," Westrom said. "Will I support Nancy Pelosi as the leader of the U.S. Congress or not? I am here to tell you I will not unlike my opponent who has."
In prior elections, Peterson neutralized the 'Nancy Pelosi card.' Apparently, that streak has met its match. Westrom isn't just mentioning Pelosi's name. He's tying Pelosi to Peterson on the biggest issue in the district. Westrom has done a nice job of highlighting the House Democratic leadership's environmental fanaticism.
That won't sit well in the 7th District.
Finally, people apparently are responding to Torrey's positive message:
"We have been running a positive campaign, a positive message, and voters have been responding very favorably to what they see and hear coming out of our campaign," Westrom said. "We are going to continue pushing a positive message of change."
The thing that I've heard is that people appreciate Torrey Westrom's demeanor and discipline. He isn't afraid to highlight differences like he did in this interview. Still, he's been respectful while highlighting policy differences he has with his opponent. That's an admirable trait, one which says he'll fight for his policies and principles without vilifying people he'll need to work with.
Minnesota's 7th District needs that type of leadership and character. A vote for Westrom is a vote for principled leadership.
Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 11:01 AM
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