October 12-13, 2014
Oct 12 00:21 Democrats' worst nightmare? Oct 12 02:06 Tim O'Driscoll exposes Dayton's, DFL's MNsure Myth Oct 12 02:43 Seifert endorses Torrey Westrom Oct 12 10:35 Citizens smarter than Al Franken Oct 12 13:39 NRA's pro-Mills ad buy Oct 13 02:26 Wisconsin Enrollments Oct 13 03:04 Dayton isn't interested in honesty Oct 13 04:00 LTEs from a different planet, Part II Oct 13 09:26 DFL, Nolan, Franken hate employers
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Democrats' worst nightmare?
This article suggests that Democrats' worst nightmares are right around the corner:
Polling in recent weeks suggests turnout on Election Day could be very low, even by the standards of recent midterms. That's bad news for Democrats because core groups in the liberal base are more likely to stay home than are people in the demographic segments that lean Republican.
A Gallup poll last week found that voters are less engaged in this year's midterms than they were in 2010 and 2006. Only 33 percent of respondents said they were giving at least 'some' thought to the upcoming midterms, compared to 46 percent in 2010 and 42 percent in 2006. Even more troubling for Democrats, Republicans held a 12-point advantage when those paying 'some' attention were broken down by party.
The news isn't all bad for the Democrats:
Turnout should be higher in states with high-profile competitive races. Michael McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida who specializes in elections, said that turnout may be low nationally simply because most of the county's largest states, such as California and Texas, don't have major competitive races.
This isn't that great of news for Democrats. Most of the late-breaking races are breaking in the Republicans' direction. It appears as though Harry Reid has given up on Sen. Udall :
This is potentially huge. Senate Majority PAC, the SuperPAC aiming to help Democrats keep their Senate majority, is cancelling $289,000 worth of broadcast-television advertising next week.
There's such a thing as a domino effect late in elections. If people are noticing that the alphabets (DSCC, DNC, DCCC) are cancelling ad buys, it isn't a stretch to think that they're giving up on those races. It's thought that pulling ad buys says that they've got better places to spend limited resources.
Similarly, races that aren't attracting big names hint that they aren't part of the top tier races.
This isn't good news, either:
This election's worst kept secret is that things aren't breaking the Democrats' direction. Cancelling ad buys in North Carolina and Colorado doesn't indicate strength on the Democrats' behalf.
Posted Sunday, October 12, 2014 12:21 AM
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Tim O'Driscoll exposes Dayton's, DFL's MNsure Myth
Tim O'Driscoll's op-ed on MNsure's rate increases is the best explanation I've seen on the subject. Here's the key paragraph in Rep. O'Driscoll's op-ed:
But if you're still wondering how the state arrived at a 4.5 percent average increase, Commerce simply took the four average rate changes for providers in the exchange (up 17.15 percent, up 8.12 percent, up 1.8 percent, and down 9.07 percent) and divided them by four.
First, it's important to note that the Commerce Department intentionally misled Minnesotans. While the average rate increase for each of the 4 remaining plans equals 4.5%, that's misleading at best. Here's why:
The reality is people are paying more than ever because of Obamacare in Minnesota. For people in Benton, Sherburne and Stearns counties, MNsure enrollees will see their average rates go up between 18 and 37 percent. And people in the bronze plans, which offer the lowest cost options, will see premiums increase about 20 percent. This is simply unaffordable for too many hardworking Minnesotans.
So why are their numbers off by so much?
First, it's important to note the comparison of last year's rates to this year's is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Instead, when calculating rates, Commerce chose to ignore that the lowest cost provider (which covered about 60 percent of MNsure enrollees) dropped out of the exchange because of continued technical problems and inefficiencies.
The Minnesota Senate Republicans put together this interactive map showing how much insurance premiums were increasing in each of Minnesota's 87 counties.
For instance, Benton County's least expensive health insurance premiums will increase by 22% in 2015. Stearns County's least expensive health insurance premiums will increase by 22% in 2015, too. Ditto with Sherburne and Wright counties.
They should consider themselves lucky that they aren't in Meeker, Kandiyohi, Chippewa or Yellow Medicine counties, where their least expensive health insurance premiums will jump by 43%. (Does that sound affordable?)
Cottonwood, Lyons, Nobles and Murray counties' least expensive health insurance premiums hit a less-than-happy medium, increasing by 34%.
But I digress. Here's more important information from Rep. O'Driscoll's op-ed:
Additionally, I offer this to people who argue rates still aren't going up as fast as they did before the Affordable Care Act or before Minnesota taxpayers spent $160 million on a broken MNsure website. From 2003 to 2010, individual market insurance premiums rose a total of 35 percent in Minnesota, compared with 47 percent in our first year under Obamacare.
That isn't Rep. O'Driscoll's opinion. That's from statistics compiled by the Department of Commerce. Finally, this is great advice:
Keep a copy of this article, and when open enrollment begins Nov. 15, take a look at your new premiums and compare my math to the 4.5 percent number being marketed by MNsure.
I've just got one tiny dispute with Rep. O'Driscoll. In fact, it isn't really a dispute. The 4.5% increase figure is being peddled by the Dayton re-election campaign through the Commerce Department. There's no sense in being polite. The 4.5% figure is fiction. Every real journalist should be highlighting the Dayton campaign's dishonesty.
Finally, while I agree with Rep. O'Driscoll's statement that people should "keep a copy of this article" and compare their "new premiums" with the Commerce Department's 4.5% fiction, I'd additionally suggest that people remember Gov. Dayton's and the DFL's dishonesty in pimping the 4.5% figure. They know it's intellectually dishonest. They don't care about honesty when Gov. Dayton and the DFL are trying to win elections.
While there's no doubt that people think that politicians aren't the most honest people, there's no doubt that people should take politicians that are intentionally dishonest to the proverbial woodshed. It's time to take Gov. Dayton and the dishonest DFL legislators to that woodshed.
Originally posted Sunday, October 12, 2014, revised 13-Oct 6:18 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 12-Oct-14 11:53 AM
Gary:
I think you should ad read my post about Al Franken and how he wants to restrict free speech to show why government isn't honest and we need to have real free speech.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Seifert endorses Torrey Westrom
According to this editorial , Marty Seifert has endorsed Torrey Westrom's run for the US congressional seat held by Collin Peterson:
'Many of you in western Minnesota know me, know my family, and know what I'm about. I'm not someone who entered political office for personal gain, but to help build a better state for my children and yours.
'My former colleague in the Legislature, Torrey Westrom, also believes that politics should be about service, not about individuals.
'That's why I am asking you to join me in supporting Torrey as he runs for Congress here in Minnesota's 7th District.
'Torrey is a man of integrity, wisdom, and most of all courage. He lost his eyesight at the age of 14 in a farm-related accident, but in the years that I've known him, I have never seen him let that slow him down. Now, with determination and drive, he is taking on liberal big-spenders in Washington.
'He is on the verge of winning, and making rural Minnesota proud, but he needs our support. I know he is the right choice for southwestern Minnesota, and I know he will represent us well.
'Please join me in choosing Torrey Westrom for Congress on Nov. 4.'
Marty Seifert
Former State Representative
Marshall
I'd love seeing Collin Peterson making a concession speech on Tuesday, Nov. 4. It's long past time to retire that dinosaur.
Posted Sunday, October 12, 2014 2:43 AM
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Citizens smarter than Al Franken
I know it isn't the highest hurdle ever constructed but it's apparent that some citizens are smarter than Sen. Franken when it comes to the Bill of Rights. Here's proof:
"Congress and the states may regulate and set reasonable limits on the raising and spending of money by candidates and others to influence elections." This is a proposed constitutional amendment Sen. Al Franken supports along with 47 other Democratic senators. Hopefully in one of his remaining debates he will explain his reasoning for supporting this amendment and why incumbent congressmen like himself should be entrusted to set "reasonable limits." Perhaps Democrats think we shouldn't be exposed to too many ideas. It's ironic his party supports such an amendment since the Democratic Party is far outspending the GOP in this year's mid-term election.
This LTE hits the nail on the head in highlighting the silliness of thinking anyone in Washington, DC is capable of setting "reasonable limits" on fundraising spending during campaigns. To quote the great economist and philosopher Milton Friedman during his interview with Phil Donahue, "Just where do you suppose we're going to find these angels who are going to organize society for us? I don't even trust you to do that."
The notion that government bureaucrats always care about families or individuals rights is myth. The sooner that myth is demolished, the better. The thought that an incumbent will set up election rules that don't favor the incumbent is foolhardy. Thinking that Al Franken, Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer are interested in playing fair is intellectually insulting.
Yes, raising and spending money can be used to influence opinions and elections. That is what free speech is supposed to do.
It's a beautiful thing. Shouldn't "the rich" have the right to express their political opinions? If not, why not?
Actually, that's just a trap. Who made any of us the impartial arbiter of what's acceptable political speech? Is any of us so virtuous that we'd trust ourselves with never showing partiality? If you think that of yourself, then you're either lying through your teeth or you've got a higher opinion of yourself than you should have.
Al that aside, the fact is that Sen. Franken has shown he isn't the impartial arbiter of what's acceptable political speech and what isn't. He's signed his name to a letter telling the IRS to crank up their investigation against conservative organizations by saying that they were involved in something suspicious. What that suspicious thing was wasn't identified in Sen. Schumer's letter.
What's interesting is that Sen. Franken wants to give politicians the right to tell people that think differently than him that the First Amendment doesn't protect them like it protects people that think like him. After that, he's essentially saying that we should trust him with the authority to unlevel the political playing field.
No thanks.
Posted Sunday, October 12, 2014 10:35 AM
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NRA's pro-Mills ad buy
Rick Nolan's statements on the Second Amendment have hinted that he doesn't understand the Second Amendment. The NRA's ad buy will set the record straight on who's the pro-Second Amendment candidate in this race is. This statement is frightening:
"There have always been restrictions on the Second Amendment," Nolan previously told the Associated Press. "You can only have six shells in your shotgun when you're shooting ducks. Why should you be able to have 100 in your rifle when you're shooting people?"
It's frightening to think Congressman Nolan doesn't know federal law on shotgun capacity for waterfowl. That isn't even Second Amendment 101.
That's before getting into the part about the Second Amendment wasn't created to give people the right to hunt. That was just a given considering the fact that urbanization of our nation was a century+ away. The Second Amendment was created to give citizens the right to defend themselves against tyrannical government and so people could protect their families.
How can someone say that they're pro-Second Amendment when they don't know what inspired the Founding Fathers to write it?
Nolan has defended his support of an assault weapons ban, limits on magazine capacity and other proposals as common-sense regulation that don't conflict with the hunting-friendly lifestyle of the 8th District.
The only difference between so-called assault weapons and other semi-automatic weapons is cosmetic. When the original assault weapons ban was passed, it was obsolete within 6 months. Passing another assault weapons ban would be unconstitutional because it would outlaw an entire type of firearm.
That isn't common sense. That's stupidity on display.
Baker cited those votes and others in Nolan's "F" grade with the NRA. The NRA announced its endorsement of Mills this week. Baker called Mills "the only person in the race who is committed to protecting our Second Amendment rights."
Rick Nolan is pro-Second Amendment except when he's pro-gun control. It's that simple.
Posted Sunday, October 12, 2014 1:39 PM
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Wisconsin Enrollments
Wisconsin Enrollments
by Silence Dogood
The Leader-Telegram published an article September 25, 2014 on enrollment at UW-Eau Claire, UW-River Falls and UW-Stout. According to the article,
Starting with the university with declining enrollment - Eau Claire. UW-Eau Claire lists a second-week headcount of 10,619 students, which is down 223 from the same time a year ago. This decline corresponds to a decline in enrollment of 2.1%. When numbers are finalized the article reports that UW-Eau Claire expects to be down only 150 students, which would represent a decline of 1.4%. The article further states that: "The university's examining statistics to find reasons for the drop." This contrasts with SCSU, where President Potter simply continues to say: We're 'right sizing.'
Consider these two universities. One university is where the enrollment is down 1.4% and people are worried and asking questions. Another university is down in enrollment over 22% and the only comment from the administration is that we're 'right sizing.' However, recently the administration has started saying that we need to "grow our programs." So the obvious question is how far did SCSU go past the 'right size'?
UW-River Falls enrollment is listed as being down 20 students but with students still to enroll in mid-semester classes expects "it will be nearly identical to what we had last year." SCSU recently projected a decline of 4-5% for FY15 (up from 3.2% last March). Unfortunately, current data points to being down significantly more than the administration's latest estimates. It looks like SCSU will now add its fourth year in a row of enrollment decline over 5%.
The article also states that if UW-Stout enrolls eight more students, it will break its enrollment record set in the fall of 2011. "Meeting freshmen enrollment targets, a rise in transfer students, higher retention rates and more people taking graduate courses were factors to UW-Stout's increasing numbers."
Looking at the data for SCSU's new entering freshmen (NEF):
Fall'08 to Fall'14, NEF enrollment has dropped by 721 students and represents a drop of 30.0%! So it looks like SCSU and Stout are on very different trajectories.
Looking at the data for SCSU's transfer students (NET):
Fall'08 to Fall'14, NET enrollment has dropped by 306 students and represents a drop of 23.1%! So again it looks like SCSU and Stout are on very different trajectories.
SCSU doesn't report retention rates. Most of the MnSCU universities have tables of retention rates on their websites; SCSU does not. Historically, SCSU's retention rates were in the high 70's. Recently, they have fallen into the high 60's and now several have claimed to have that they moved back into the low 70's. However, the administration has not publically provided data on retention rates. The rates at Winona and Mankato are much higher.
Looking at the data for SCSU's graduate enrollment:
This is the one area showing an increase like Stout. Unfortunately, a 1.00% growth in graduate enrollment, which is only 12% of the total enrollment, will not increase the overall enrollment significantly. Consider if the graduate enrollment had grown by 10% this fall instead of 1.00%, the overall enrollment would have increased by a whopping 1.2%. Given SCSU's current enrollment situation, this still might be cause for celebration. However, it will not significantly affect the enrollment decline or the need for $8,000,000-$10,000,000 in budget reductions.
Certainly, the graduate enrollment increase is good news. However, since the university was 'reorganized,' graduate enrollment has dropped 15.0%. As a result, from an enrollment of 1,620 at a 1% rate of growth, it will take 17 years to get back to the enrollment level in Fall'10. It is also worth noting that the drop occurred in only four years. Given that significant funding cuts will need to be made, it is unlikely that graduate enrollment will continue to rise for two reasons. First, graduate programs have smaller class sizes and therefore higher personnel costs. Secondly, graduate assistantships are easy targets for budget cutters. Neither is a recipe for success in growing a program in a time of budget cutting.
The last time the university cut these kinds of dollars from the budget was when the university underwent reorganization and the enrollment was down over 5% in each of the four succeeding years. It doesn't look like the enrollment has hit bottom yet. Now the university is cutting again. How will the results be different this time?
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. -- Albert Einstein
Posted Monday, October 13, 2014 2:26 AM
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Dayton isn't interested in honesty
The thing that stood out during Tom Hauser's interview with Gov. Dayton was Gov. Dayton's insistence that some official government reports were totally accurate while other official government reports were rubbish.
For instance, Gov. Dayton insisted that health insurance prices were going up a paltry 4.5%, a statistic that's been frequently discredited. Here's what I wrote Sunday:
The Minnesota Senate Republicans put together this interactive map showing how much insurance premiums were increasing in each of Minnesota's 87 counties.
For instance, Benton County's least expensive health insurance premiums will increase by 22% in 2015. Stearns County's least expensive health insurance premiums will increase by 22% in 2015, too. Ditto with Sherburne and Wright counties.
They should consider themselves lucky that they aren't in Meeker, Kandiyohi, Chippewa or Yellow Medicine counties, where their least expensive health insurance premiums will jump by 43%. (Does that sound affordable?)
Cottonwood, Lyons, Nobles and Murray counties' least expensive health insurance premiums hit a less-than-happy medium, increasing by 34%.
Gov. Dayton should be ashamed of himself for being this dishonest. The Dayton administration's report saying that insurance premiums are only going up 4.5% is an outright lie.
Gov. Dayton wasn't done lying with that, though. When Hauser brought up the BLS report that showed Minnesota was last in the Midwest in private sector job growth , Gov. Dayton started reciting the BS that Minnesota's economy has created 160,000 jobs during his administration. Government jobs don't create wealth. Private sector jobs are the only jobs that create wealth, which strengthens the economy.
The Dayton-DFL economy is a sugar high economy propped up by big bonding bills. The fundamentals are weak. Taxes are too high. Regulations prohibit or, at minimum, limit private sector job growth. MMB's rosy scenario revenue forecasts are falling short on a near monthly basis.
Further, Minnesota's economy hasn't created 160,000 jobs. It's closer to 110,000 jobs, 20% of which (21,523) are public sector jobs.
Later, Hauser questioned Gov. Dayton's ad that says he's cut taxes, asking whether it's fair to question that considering the fact that Gov. Dayton campaigned on raising taxes. Gov. Dayton said that it's fair to say because he only "raised taxes on the richest 2%." Does this mean that Gov. Dayton thinks it's ok to ignore raising taxes on "the rich" because they're greedy and they don't really count like the saintly middle class?
Seriously, Gov. Dayton's thinking is warped, if it can be called thinking. Tax increases aren't tax increases if they're increased on people who Gov. Dayton disagrees with. Health insurance premiums are going up at 4.5% because his administration decided to use gimmicks to arrive at a figure that put the Dayton administration in the most favorable light. Families whose health insurance premiums were increasing by 20%-43% aren't real because Gov. Dayton's Commerce Department used deception to determine in putting together a political document rather than putting together a document that accurately reflects the increases that families will get hit with.
Posted Monday, October 13, 2014 3:04 AM
Comment 1 by Chad Q at 13-Oct-14 09:51 AM
A lie becomes the truth if you keep telling it over and over again, especially to the morons who support Dayton and the DFL.
Comment 2 by walter hanson at 13-Oct-14 03:15 PM
Gary:
I got a new lie you didn't highlight. Dayton said that he only raised taxes on the top 2%. So I guess every single cigarette smoker in Minnesota is in the top 2% because their taxes went up quite dramatically.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
LTEs from a different planet, Part II
This LTE isn't rooted in historical fact or reality. Here's proof:
After the 2012 election, District 14B Rep. Zachary Dorholt and the Legislature had the tough task of cleaning up our state's finances, which had been left in shambles. Previous Legislatures had passed along a $600 million budget deficit and nearly $1 billion in debt to our schools.
That isn't accurate. The DFL legislatures of 2007-2010 left behind multi-billion dollar deficits and about $2,000,000,000 in school shifts. Republicans inherited a $5,000,000,000 deficit when they became the majority party in 2011.
They passed tons of reforms, including permitting reform, budget reform while insisting that high school teachers pass a Basic Skills Test. All of these things became law thanks to Republicans sticking to their principles of accountability and efficient government that works for people.
It's worth noting that Republicans passed a bill that would've paid off the school shifts, too. The disappointing part is that the DFL legislature voted against repaying the school shift. Then Gov. Dayton vetoed the bill that would've paid off the school shift.
That's verifiable historical fact. It's indisputable.
When the DFL took total control of state government, the deficit had dropped to $600,000,000. That's one-eighth the size of the deficit Republicans inherited in 2011.
By the time the 2014 session finished, the all-DFL government had repealed the Basic Skills Test reform and the budget reforms the GOP had passed. That's inexcusable. Education Minnesota opposed the Basic Skills Test so Zach Dorholt and his DFL colleagues voted to repeal it. Nobody in the DFL, starting with Gov. Dayton, Senate Majority Leader Bakk and Speaker Thissen, liked the budget reforms so they repealed those reforms.
These paragraphs are total propaganda:
But Dorholt did not back down. He helped pay back every penny owed to schools and used new revenue (largely from closing corporate tax loopholes and asking the wealthiest 2 percent to chip in a fair share) to eliminate the deficit and make long-overdue investments in priorities Minnesotans broadly share.
Those priorities included all-day kindergarten; a two-year college tuition freeze; bigger property tax refunds; more funding for nursing homes; and resources to help small businesses. As a result, our economy is growing, Minnesotans are going back to work and more children have an opportunity to reach their full potential.
Dorholt the ideologue fit right in, voting against his constituents in raising a) income taxes on "the rich", b) sales taxes that hit the middle class and c) the cigarette tax that hits low income Minnesotans.
All-day kindergarten wasn't a priority for most middle class families but it was a priority for Education because they saw it as a way to increase funding to their members. It doesn't have anything to do with providing a better education to students. Property tax relief is mostly a mirage. Yes, there will be refund checks on the back side but there's also property tax increases on the front side. As for helping small businesses, that's a myth. Many small businesses are either expanding in other states, starting in other states or moving to other states.
Rep. Dorholt and his all-DFL legislature have made a total mess of things. They should be fired this November.
Posted Monday, October 13, 2014 4:00 AM
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DFL, Nolan, Franken hate employers
Watching all the ads being run by Nancy Pelosi's PAC, the Franken campaign, the Nolan campaign and all the anti-business rhetoric coming from the Dayton campaign, DFL chairman Ken Martin and other anti-business parasites, there's only one conclusion you can draw. The DFL and its candidates hate employers. Joe Soucheray's column highlights the DFL's silliness perfectly:
It's to the point of comedy that the national Democratic Party has raced to Minnesota to help Nolan out with television ads that feature yachts and private airplanes and white sand beaches. I guess the voter is supposed to believe that Mills sits around all day and has grapes fed to him as he pages through the Neiman Marcus Christmas catalog pining for a new Maserati Ghibli S Q4.
Whether it's Nancy Pelosi's superPAC or Rick Nolan's campaign, the hard left's disdain for companies is unmistakable. It's in each of their ads against Stewart Mills. What's most appalling is that the DFL's agenda doesn't have a thing in it that says they're pro-capitalism. In fact, when the DFL held their state convention, Iron Range Democrats wanted the state party to ad a simple sentence to their party's platform. That simple sentence was to say that the DFL supports mining.
After hours of negotiations, aka Metrocrats intimidating the Iron Range delegation, that simple sentence was dropped because Alida Messinger declared that statement was too controversial. Nolan isn't the only 1970s reject that thinks companies are evil:
The Franken camp says that as an investment banker, McFadden has brokered the sales of companies that have resulted in the loss of jobs. Well, that can be true in some cases. In other cases, there will be a gain of jobs. Besides, once a company is bought or sold, what does McFadden have to do with it? The Franken camp also insists that McFadden has been involved with companies that have committed the mortal sin of tax inversion by moving their headquarters overseas. No. McFadden's company represented a foreign company being bought, not the U.S. company moving abroad. That's business, however unfamiliar Franken might be to business.
In Franken's thinking, the problem isn't that the tax code is filled with special favors. It's that small businesses, aka the rich, aren't paying a high enough tax rate. The thing is that Franken and Nolan haven't started a business that requires sound judgment. That's why they don't know that many of these small businesses owners work 60-75 hours/week to build a business, paying their employees first, then paying their bills before they can start funding their retirement and their kids' college education.
After sweating through tough times before getting to the point of profitability, then idiots like Dayton, Franken and Nolan accuse them of being greedy and of "not paying their fair share."
The truth is that Stewart Mills and Mike McFadden have done more to improve middle class families' lives in 5 years than Dayton, Franken and Nolan have done in a lifetime. Long-winded politicians haven't paid for their employees' health insurance or contributed to their employees' retirement accounts or paid them a good wage that put a roof over their employees' families' heads. Stewart Mills and Mike McFadden have.
When Dayton, Franken and Nolan do that for a generation, then I'll listen, not a minute before.
Posted Monday, October 13, 2014 9:26 AM
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