November 1-7, 2014
Nov 01 17:47 McFadden's closing pitch Nov 02 03:33 Strib endorses racist Simon Nov 02 11:03 Mitch McConnell's lead expands Nov 03 03:39 At last, a budget...sort of Nov 04 00:17 Dayton: MNsure is getting better Nov 05 10:30 HuskyData3 UPDATED Nov 06 11:01 Range voters pick irrelevance Nov 07 17:13 Rosenstone's terrible week
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
McFadden's closing pitch
Britta Arendt's article tells the story of a fantastic candidate making an impressive closing argument:
With his signature spark of energy, McFadden lit up the room during his stop at the Sawmill Inn as he raced in for a brief visit. 'I love to be here in Grand Rapids where there's the convergence of mining and timber,' said McFadden.
A vote for Mike McFadden is a vote for building pipelines and opening mines. A vote for Al Franken is a vote for more IRS investigations and being the environmental activists' friend.
It's a vote against mining and logging jobs. It's a vote against farmers getting their crops to market.
Most importantly, a vote for Mike McFadden is a vote for the most qualified candidate in the race. Al Franken knows government's nooks and crannies. Mike McFadden understands health care policy, energy policy, regulatory policy and foreign policy.
It isn't just that we can do better. It's that we can't afford 6 more years of Sen. Franken's partisanship and not getting important things done. Sen. Franken hasn't done anything constructive to make PolyMet a reality. He's done nothing to grow Minnesota's companies.
That's because he's spent too much time doing what he's told by President Obama, Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer. That trio don't have Minnesota's best interests at heart. They definitely don't have the Iron Range's best interests at heart.
If he's elected, Mike McFadden will hit the ground running in DC. It's apparent that he'll find natural allies in the Senate in Ron Johnson, Tom Cotton, Joni Ernst and Cory Gardner.
When asked of his thoughts regarding the proposed federal listing of the long-eared bat as an endangered species because of the threat of the white-nose syndrome which could potentially shut down summer logging and timber operations, McFadden said 'It's a false choice, environment or jobs. I reject that.'
Continuing on the environment topic, McFadden addressed the proposed PolyMet mining project and said, 'Science needs to be based on facts not emotions. Extreme environmentalists can cause decisions to be caught up for years in regulatory review and, in the meantime, people lose hundreds of jobs. I am running against someone who has done nothing to expedite the PolyMet project.'
Al Franken is one of the Environmental Left's best allies. He's repeatedly gone to bat for them, albeit quietly so he can pretend to be the miners' friend.
Al Franken won't fight against environmental extremists because he's one of them. Mike McFadden will fight against the environmental extremist base of the DFL because he doesn't owe them anything and because he he'd rather see all Minnesotans prosper than pander for special interest contributions for his next campaign.
Posted Saturday, November 1, 2014 5:47 PM
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Strib endorses racist Simon
It isn't a surprise that the Strib endorsed Steve Simon . It's just sad that they said this about him:
This is the issue that should matter most when those Minnesotans who do exercise their civic privilege vote for a new secretary of state on Nov. 4. And once this key consideration is taken into account, it's clear that Steve Simon, who represents portions of St. Louis Park and Hopkins in the Legislature, is uniquely well suited to succeed Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, who is not seeking a third term.
Simon, like Ritchie, is a DFLer. But he has built bipartisan consensus to increase voter participation. As chair of the House Elections Committee, Simon was instrumental in passing the 'no excuses' absentee voter law, which starting this election makes it easier for Minnesota voters to cast a ballot, as well as the bill allowing online voter registration. And he carried the bill to switch Minnesota's primary election from September to August to better accommodate state voters living abroad.
That's BS. Simon didn't build bipartisan consensus "to increase voter participation." The only time Republicans and Democrats have disagreed about election policies, they were discussing Photo ID. Other than that, they've largely agreed.
Lately, though, Rep. Simon has shown a particularly nasty, race-hustling side :
STEVE SIMON: I really don't support this idea of a sort of Lexus lane for voting or the so-called 'Express Lane Voting. First of all, it seems intended to be a separate but equal system. All I have to go on are Dan's own words when he characterized on a TEA Party TV show in the spring when he said 'If you don't want to show an ID, be my guest. You can go over to the side and wait 2 hours in the cold. That's fine.'
It isn't accidental that Rep. Simon used that disgusting term. Rep. Simon intended to frighten minorities, especially African-Americans, into turning out and voting. That type of partisanship indicates that Steve Simon isn't the nonpartisan, consensus-seeking public servant that the Strib wants us to believe. It's apparent that he's a politician who won't hesitate in saying anything to get elected. Further, that tells me that he isn't the man of integrity that's required to do this job.
What's most disheartening is that nobody in the DFL or in the Twin Cities media have said a thing about Rep. Simon's racism. Nobody's called him out for his racist fearmongering. That's both disgusting and disheartening. What's worst is that Steve Simon has repeatedly resorted to this inflammatory racist rhetoric. Why would anyone think that he's an impartial, nonpartisan arbiter of administering elections?
Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 3:33 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 02-Nov-14 05:23 PM
Gary:
The sad thing is obviously that the Star Tribune only cares more about people being able to vote and not worried about fraud.
There are thousands if not millions of Americans who are victims of identity theft every year.
A couple of questions for the Star Tribune which I assume they won't answer.
One, lets say I go to the polls on election and tell the judge who I am and the judge claims that I already voted (in part because somebody pretended to be me to vote on my behalf). Will I get to vote?
Two, more important is there a way for the person who committed the fraud to have their vote not count? Can they be identified to prosecuted?
Three, will I have to worry about being prosecuted for trying to vote illegally?
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Mitch McConnell's lead expands
There's an unmistakable trend in the McConnell-Grimes race, a trend best illustrated by this morning's RCP average of polls:
That's what a consistently growing lead looks like. None of these polls show Lundergan-Grimes leading. In fact, none of these polls shows Sen. McConnell's lead inside the polls' margin of error. There's nothing in this graphic that suggests any of these are outliers.
This weekend's developments don't hint that Sen. McConnell will become the next Senate Majority Leader. This weekend's polls strongly suggest that Sen. McConnell will be the Senate Majority Leader sooner rather than later.
For instance, Joni Ernst got great news last night. This isn't good news for Mark Udall:
The trend isn't Mark Pryor's friend in Arkansas:
That's before talking about Montana, South Dakota or West Virginia, which are certainties. That's before talking about Alaska or Louisiana, where Democrat incumbents appear to be living on borrowed time. To make matters worse for Democrats, that isn't the full extent of their potential losses. Scott Brown has run a fantastic campaign in New Hampshire. Defeating Sen. Shaheen would be a mild upset but it wouldn't stun people like his defeat of Martha Coakley in the 2010 special election. Mike McFadden's run a solid campaign in Minnesota. While defeating Sen. Franken would be a major upset, it's worth noting that momentum appears to be on McFadden's side.
Monday, I'll publish a post about a wave election's definition. Yes, this year's election fits that description.
Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 11:03 AM
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At last, a budget...sort of
At Last A Budget! But Now I Have To Cry!
by Silence Dogood
On Wednesday, October 22, 2014, SCSU Vice President for Finance and Administration Tammy McGee publically unveiled the FY15 budget at a Budget Advisory Committee Meeting. The document released is reproduced below.
There is a lot of information contained in this document. However, if you were to focus on one number, it would have to be the Net Operations for the FY15 Revised Budget, which shows a deficit of $9,542,000. This represents a necessary reduction from the General Fund, which amounts to a 6.3% reduction.
Although the document does not list information about the other revenue accounts, this is a far more informative budget document that was released last year.
Now it's time to cry. A decrease of $9,542,000 four years after $14,000,000 had been cut out of the budget will be a monumental task because all of the 'easy' cuts have already been made. Additionally, the tendency to make one-time cuts, fancy accounting shifts, and reserves to cover the deficit may get SCSU through this fiscal year but leave another hole in the following year's budget.
With state appropriations related to the FYE enrollment two years earlier, since two years ago enrollment fell 6.4% in FY13, it is almost certain that the state appropriate for FY16 will be less. Unfortunately, this trend will continue going forward since last year's FYE enrollment (FY'14) was down 5.1% and this year, enrollment (FY15) is again down over 5%. Additionally, with declining enrollments, the tuition revenue concomitantly decreases. As a result, even if the FY15 budget were to be cut to an amount equal to the revenue for this year, it would still lead to another deficit for the following year! Thus, even MORE than $9,542,000 will need to be cut!
The option recently proposed by President Potter to 'grow programs' to solve the budget deficit is a good one in the long term. Unfortunately, it's not as easy as just snapping your fingers and magically new programs are in place. It's also too bad that the initiatives to grow programs wasn't started three years ago because they actually might be helping increase enrollments right now.
Significant cuts are going to have to be made; they are as inevitable as death and taxes. The problem is that most faculty and staff (at least as demonstrated by the results from the Great Place to Work Survey) have little confidence in the administration to be able to handle the current situation. It is also a certainty that there are going to be fewer faculty and staff on campus next year to compliment the 22.5% FYE enrollment decline the past five years.
Posted Monday, November 3, 2014 3:39 AM
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Dayton: MNsure is getting better
Throughout this campaign, Gov. Dayton hasn't told Minnesotans the truth about MNsure. In his final debate with Jeff Johnson Friday night, Gov. Dayton insisted that MNsure was getting better all the time. Gov. Dayton said that despite this information :
Counties will have to start next month processing thousands of paper applications for health insurance for MNsure, the state's online health exchange.
Local officials say the unexpected shift will result in a significant increase in workload for counties, which already are dealing with additional duties related to the Affordable Care Act. " We will have to gear up for it, there's no doubt about that ," said Mary Jo Cobb, Sherburne County health and human services director.
Apparently, Democrats think spending $155,000,000 on a website that didn't work last year and that isn't working this year is proof that MNsure's getting better all the time. People living in the real world, however, think that's a gigantic waste of their hard-earned money.
Politicians, for the most part, don't think about whether money spent improves people's lives. Businessmen, on the other hand, are constantly monitoring whether the money they've spent is producing positive results because it's either their money or their job depends on spending their investors' money wisely.
The Twin Cities legislators that voted to create MNsure will likely win with 75% of the vote. For them, consequences don't exist. As long as they do what the DFL machine tells them to do, they won't have a thing to worry about.
This information is frightening:
Since the MNsure exchange launched a year ago, it's been plagued with technical problems. That's caused more people than expected to resort to submitting paper applications, said Janet Goligowski, gateway services director in Stearns County's human services department.
"Presumably, the concept is that the online system will be so easy and so intuitive and user friendly that no one would really think to go to paper applications, which are very hefty and very long," Goligowski said. However, since the exchange has been unable to process many applications promptly, "people just really naturally gravitated toward the paper applications," she said.
That's frightening. Apparently, the Dayton administration thought that the website would work beautifully so they didn't need a tested manual system. The Dayton administration's actions and assumptions wouldn't be tolerated in the private sector. The thought of not being prepared for multiple eventualities is disgusting.
Why Gov. Dayton's administration didn't prepare for this is beyond incomprehensible. Apparently, Gov. Dayton thinks that his job is to sign bills. He hasn't shown an interest in making sure the nuts and bolts operations are operating properly.
That's why MNsure is an ongoing disaster. That's why his administration is an ongoing disaster.
Posted Tuesday, November 4, 2014 12:17 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 04-Nov-14 01:00 AM
Gary:
The thing I might find alarming about this story is when will DFL local leaders start objecting to this. One of the biggest arguments that was made to let the DFL be put in control was that they will relieve the counties of spending and give them extra revenues. In this case the counties (including the big ones that support the democrats) are getting extra work that they didn't expect.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
HuskyData3 UPDATED
Is The NEF Retention Rate All That Important?
by Silence Dogood
The third issue of the HuskyData Newsletter, a regular newsletter dedicated to sharing data and information about SCSU and our students" focuses on the 30th day enrollment numbers came out on Thursday, October 16, 2014.
From the data in the Figure it looks like the trend is going in the right direction. The increase from 70.5% to 72.8% represents a one-year increase of 3.3%. This is probably something that should be considered a success. However, the number of New Entering Freshmen (NEF) in Fall'13 (1,703) decreased from Fall'12 (1,949) by 246 students, which corresponds to a drop of 12.6% so this might temper the euphoria of the small success of increasing the NEF retention rate. If students aren't enrolled, they can't be retained!
A retention rate of 72.8% of 1,703 students means that 1,240 students returned for classes in Fall'14. If the retention rate had been 70.5%, as it was for the previous year, a total of 1,200 students would have returned. As a result, due to the increase in the retention rate, 40 additional students returned to campus this fall. An increase of 40 additional students increased the 30th day enrollment of 15,416 students by a whopping 0.26%.
Why quibble, an increase is an increase, right? At the same time that there were 40 additional students retained, there were also 246 fewer NEF to be retained. Had the NEF cohort been the same as the prior year (1,949) and 70.5% were retained (the same retention rate for Fall'12), this would have returned 1,374 students, which would be 134 students larger than the number actually returned for Fall'14! As a result, the increase in retention rate generated 40 additional students while the decrease in NEF lost 134 students. It certainly shouldn't be one or another but the net effect of both. When both are considered the NEF decrease swamps any increase resulting from an increase in the retention rate.
Last year, the administration at Meet and Confer (September 5, 2013) stated that it had reduced the number of NEF by 160 for Fall'13 by reducing the number of students who did not meet the admission requirements for the DGS (now ACE) program. The reduction of 160 students represents a drop in the number of NEF from the prior year by 8.2%. However, the actual drop in NEF totaled 246 students so there were an additional 84 fewer NEF students than had been supposedly planned for. A drop of 246 NEF corresponds to a drop of 12.6%. Drops in NEF are significant because they aren't available to be retained for up to as many as six years, which translates into a lot of lost tuition revenue.
The DGS/ACE program had an enrollment of 500 students in Fall'12. A Figure handed out at Meet and Confer on September 5, 2013 is reproduced below.
For Fall'13 the DGS/ACE program reduced its numbers from the previous year's 500 students to 349 students, which corresponds to a drop of about 1/3rd of the students. The purpose of the drop in the numbers of students in the DGS/ACE program was made very clear by the administration at Meet and Confer on September 5, 2013.
The clear assumption is that if the number of students who did meet the admission requirements were reduced, the retention rate would go up. Let's assume that the increase in retention rate from 70.5% to 72.8% was entirely due to having 160 fewer DGS/ACE students. If those 160 had been admitted in Fall'13, the NEF number for Fall'13 would have been 1,863 instead of 1,703. Applying the retention rate of 70.5% to 1,863 students would yield 1,313 students. The difference between 1,240 students and 1,313 students is 73 students. If only 73 students out of 160 students were retained, this would lead to a retention rate for those 160 DGS students of 45.6%.
This then begs the question. If the DGS/ACE program has a retention rate less than 50%, should there be a DGS/ACE program at all? If the retention rate of 45.6% is applied to the 349 DGS NEF in the class of 2013, only 159 would have been retained in Fall'14. Since 1,240 students were retained that means 1,081 of the retained students were 'regular' admissions. The retention rate for 'regular' admissions is therefore 79.8%. Thus, if you want to increase your retention rate, simply eliminate the DGS/ACE program!
Unfortunately, this logic does not recognize that historically in the 1990s the DGS program had higher retention rates and five-year graduation rates than 'regular' students. So, it's not quite that simple. Clearly, the DGS program has changed and the academic profile of new entering students has changed so, at best, we need to recognize that the current DGS program is not as successful as it has been historically.
From Minnesota State University - Mankato's 2012-2017 Enrollment Management Plan,
A Table of Mankato's NEF retention rate from Fall 2000 through Fall 2012 as reproduced from the Academic Data Summary 2009-10 through 2013-14 is shown.
Mankato's Enrollment Management Plan also states "this rate often leads the MnSCU Universities: "
Clearly, there are significant differences in the retention rates at SCSU and Mankato, recognizing these differences and trying to understand them is important if the goal is to affect a change in the current trajectory. By almost every measure, MSU - Mankato seems to be out performing SCSU. While it may not be a competition in some sense, I can't imagine aspiring to be second - that just sounds almost un-American!
Originally posted Wednesday, November 5, 2014, revised 06-Nov 1:33 AM
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Range voters pick irrelevance
If there's anything that's clear about the Eighth District race, it's that Eighth District voters voted for a congressman who will be utterly irrelevant :
Candidates for 8th District Congress from the Brainerd Area received 254,004 votes on Tuesday, with Democratic U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan polling a mere 3,636 more ballots than Republican Stewart Mills. The result: A narrow re-election victory for Nolan in a race that drew national media attention and more than $12 million in independent groups for advertising - mostly television.
A final count gives Nolan 128,820 to 125,184 for Mills, a 48.5 percent to 47.1 percent margin. Nolan and Mills volleyed the lead for about two hours until the congressman opened about a 2 percent lead at 10 p.m., which he maintained with only slight slippage until Wednesday morning when his lead was too much to overcome.
The Eighth District just voted for a man who will be utterly irrelevant when the next Congress is sworn in. Nancy Pelosi's caucus will have their smallest caucus since 1929. Seriously, that's how irrelevant they'll be.
More important, the Iron Range voted against its own self interest. They voted for a life-long environmentalist who won't lift a finger to open PolyMet. The DFL is dominated by environmental elitists from the Twin Cities. That won't change anytime soon because the environmental elitists write big checks to the DFL. The Range's legislators are subjected to the Metrocrats' agenda and always will be until the Range breaks away from the DFL.
Republicans were accused of playing the PolyMet issue for political advantage. Rangers said they'd forget about PolyMet the day after the election. To be fair, Republicans haven't always had the Range's best interests at heart so a certain amount of distrust is justifiable.
What Rangers are about to find out, though, is that PolyMet wasn't just a political position taken by Republicans for the 2014 election. Rangers will see the Republicans' commitment to PolyMet and other similar projects. The Range will find out that Republicans want people prospering wherever they live in Minnesota.
Finally, Rangers will find out that this isn't their daddies' DFL. This DFL is run by Alida Messinger, the woman who writes big checks to environmental organizations and to the DFL in her effort to prevent PolyMet from getting built. If Rangers keep voting for the DFL, they'll continue to have the same shitty economy they've had for the last 15-20 years.
Einstein once said that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. I disagree. Voting for the DFL again and again, then expecting the FL and Alida Messinger to change is either stupidity or political suicide. The DFL won't change. It's time the Range finally admitted that.
Posted Thursday, November 6, 2014 11:01 AM
Comment 1 by Chad Q at 06-Nov-14 01:34 PM
It just amazes me the stupidity of people. The democrats have brought nothing but unemployment and government dependency to the Iron Range for 30+ years and the fools continue to vote for more of it. I for one no longer care if PolyMet ever opens up to allow those morons better paying jobs and a better life since they themselves refuse to do anything to help.
Comment 2 by Steve Schafer at 06-Nov-14 02:16 PM
Gary-
Are you going to post anything about Jim Knoblauch's big win in 14B?
I even thought you'd say something about Tom Emmer's win - even though it's pretty much been inevitable.
Response 2.1 by Gary Gross at 07-Nov-14 03:17 PM
Steve, yes & yes.
Comment 3 by walter hanson at 06-Nov-14 02:51 PM
Gary:
I have a question. Isn't the reason why Stewart lost was because Duluth is in CD8 it gave Nolan a big margin and the rest of the district was trying to vote for Mills and the Republicans.
If I'm not mistaken didn't we gain four state house seats in the 8th district. That sort of implies that we got the message out.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Response 3.1 by Gary Gross at 07-Nov-14 03:19 PM
Walter, Duluth always gives the DFL their vote. That was a known known. Stewart got the same percentage of the vote from the Iron Range that Chip Cravaack got in 2010.
Comment 4 by Rex Newman at 06-Nov-14 05:26 PM
To restate Chad's point, the Iron Range voters have a coalition of DFL enviroloons who don't want "dirty jobs" in their pristine playgrounds and GOP they betrayed into indifference. Mines and pipeline projects have joined the Edmund Fitzgerald at the bottom of Lake Superior.
Response 4.1 by Gary Gross at 07-Nov-14 03:21 PM
Rex, going into the election, it was thought that the Range would vote differently than the Arrowhead. The Arrowhead and Duluth were thought to be more tree-hugger country while the Range was thought to be anti-environmentalist country.
Comment 5 by walter hanson at 07-Nov-14 04:49 PM
Gary:
When I went to the Secretary of State's Office I thought Republicans won four seats held by democrats. Isn't that a sign of progress?
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Rosenstone's terrible week
Lost in all of the election hoopla has been the disintegration of the Rosenstone administration. Thus far, faculty representatives at Winona State, Minnesota State University, Mankato, Bemidji State and Southwest University have approved votes of no confidence in Chancellor Rosenstone's administration. St. Cloud State, meanwhile, has overwhelmingly approved a resolution saying that they support the Winona State faculty's vote of no confidence.
Next week, faculty representatives at Metropolitan State and Minnesota State University, Moorhead, will have their opportunity to express their opinions on Chancellor Rosenstone's administration. I don't want to presume anything but it isn't a stretch to think that they've paid attention to this week's events.
Unfortunately for Chancellor Rosenstone, the votes of no confidence are just the tip of rather nasty iceberg of his own creation. This is a major unforced error:
The chancellor of the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities (MnSCU) system says a state agency has agreed to mediate faculty unions' dispute with MnSCU leaders over how to carry out an overhaul of the system. Steven Rosenstone says he has invited union leaders to join him in talks with the state Office of Collaboration and Dispute Resolution.
Here's the IFO's response :
'In labor relations, mediation is a mutual process to be held in confidence, never to be exploited for political gain,' he wrote. 'In that light, Chancellor Rosenstone has shown his bad faith. This recent action is part of a pattern of behavior which is an important reason that the faculty unions have lost trust in his leadership.'
Chancellor Rosenstone either knew or should've known that mediated disputes go to the Bureau of Mediation Services, aka the BMS. That's what the collective bargaining agreement between the IFO and MnSCU specifies. IFO President Jim Grabowska is exactly right in saying that this was a political stunt. I'd add that it's a nonstarter and Rosenstone knew that. That's why it must be characterized as a political and PR stunt. Here's how Monte Bute, the IFO's action coordinator, reacted to Rosenstone's actions:
[IFO] action coordinator Monte Bute said Rosenstone was acting in 'bad faith' when he made his announcement early Thursday that a state agency would intervene. Bute called Rosenstone's announcement a 'political ploy,' and said union leaders have decided not to proceed with the mediation.
It's time for Tom Renier, the chairman of the MnSCU Board of Trustees, and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher, the vice-chair of the MnSCU Board of Trustees, to discipline Chancellor Rosenstone. If they haven't figured it out that he works for them, then they're as worthless as potted plants and need to go.
There's much more to this story, which I'll include in upcoming posts. Check back for more information.
Posted Friday, November 7, 2014 5:13 PM
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