August 21-24, 2014
Aug 21 03:04 Onions, Three Stooges edition Aug 21 02:59 Media scrutiny required Aug 21 11:16 SCSU fall enrollment update Aug 21 13:11 Dayton-DFL deficit Aug 22 02:38 Dayton's debate-ducking dilemma Aug 22 03:23 Brown closes gap with Shaheen Aug 23 00:46 MNsure: Dayton's competency test Aug 24 04:41 Larry Jacobs, DFL operative? Aug 24 04:38 Raising taxes, spending foolishly
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Onions, Three Stooges edition
This must be 'Bad Breath Week' for Democrats. This week's Onions and Orchids is filled with onions for the Democrats. Here's another example:
Onions: To the 3 Stooges - Governor Dayton, Senator Franken and Congressman Nolan. Will the lies never stop. These 3 will do everything they can to destroy the mining industry in Minnesota. Their Sierra Club masters will see to that and pump all the money they can into their campaigns. The sad part is that your union leadership is supporting this effort under the cover of being a Democrat. Remember that a socialist is not a Democrat and a real liberal embraces all ideas and views. All you young miners should be watching the news. Your leadership has betrayed you and the future of your families. If any of these 3 are re-elected, plan on retiring from Walmart. Whether you have a job or not, your union elite will still get a check, expense account and a car thanks to you. Also, I hope you keep an eye on the Highway 53 route; there are a few surprises coming. (Submitted by a Real Democrat and Retired Miner.)
The question miners have to ask themselves is whether they can afford another term from Larry, Moe and Curly. The median household income for Eveleth is $35,500. That's $23,626 less than the statewide average.
The union leadership hasn't pressured the Three Stooges into going to bat for the miners. You can't be pro-union if you don't fight for union jobs. Supporting the right to organize is what these politicians specialize in. That isn't what these Rangers need, though. They need high-paying union jobs.
There's no question that Gov. Dayton, Sen. Franken and Rep. Nolan will fight for the environmental activists. That's what they've consistently done throughout their political careers.
The decision facing Rangers is straightforward. A vote for Larry, Moe and Curly is a vote to end mining. Unlike the Three Stooges' act, this isn't a laughing matter.
Posted Thursday, August 21, 2014 3:04 AM
No comments.
Media scrutiny required
This weekend, I wrote this article about another dishonest ad by the Alliance for a Better Minnesota. It's important to remember that ABM has a lengthy history of running intentionally dishonest ads against Republicans.
Two years ago, ABM ran a series of TV ads that featured nearly identical scripts against 5 Republican senators and 4 Republican representatives. Here's one of the transcripts:
How we solve our state's budget problem will say a lot about our values. Rep. Woodard is choosing to balance the budget on the backs of the middle class with drastic cuts in education and health care and his plan will eliminate jobs and increase our property taxes, all just so the richest 2% don't have to chip in. Gov. Dayton's plan will protect the middle class and 98% of Minnesotans will have no tax increase.
That's a blatantly dishonest ad. It makes a series of allegations without citing proof for any of their allegations.
The budget passed by Republicans and signed by Gov. Dayton increased per student spending, which means ABM's statement about "drastic cuts in education" was intentionally dishonest. They know what was in the 2011 budget because ABM lobbied against it in the summer of 2011.
It isn't a stretch to say that dishonesty is ABM's specialty. Similarly, it isn't a stretch to think of ABM as tightly connected with the DFL. In fact, Alida Messinger, the woman that writes the biggest annual checks to the DFL, writes similar sized checks to ABM.
While it hasn't been documented that ABM and the DFL communicate and coordinate with each other, it's clear that they operate seamlessly with each other. Their smears are often identical in their dishonesty.
What's galling is that the Twin Cities media hasn't put the pieces of the puzzle together, at least not in an article. I suspect they've personally figured it out. I'm certain, though, that they haven't done a feature article about it.
For instance, I wrote this post showing how much influence Alida Messinger has within the DFL:
Most of the criticism of DFL state party chair Brian Melendez in the wake of Election Day has been confined to the liberal blogosphere. The three-term incumbent could likely survive those barbs.
But a much more important DFL supporter, wealthy donor Alida Messinger, is also apparently opposed to Melendez remaining as party chair. According to a reliable DFL source, there won't be any checks arriving in DFL coffers from the Rockefeller heir if Melendez remains in the post.
Of course, Ken Martin, the person most often cited as a potential rival for state party chair, is closely aligned with Messinger. He chaired the Win Minnesota Political Action Fund, which played a key role in the governor's race. The group's largest individual donor: Messinger.
While it's true that the Twin Cities media reported that story, I'm wondering why it didn't tell people that ABM's messaging is almost identical to the DFL's messaging. Why didn't they report that Alida Messinger's influence on ABM is as great as her influence on the DFL?
Why haven't Rachel Stassen-Berger, Brianna Bierschbach, Tom Scheck, Tom Hauser and Pat Kessler done articles showing ABM as having a lengthy history of intentionally smearing Republicans? The information isn't difficult to find. A short trip to FactCheck.org would give any of these reporters the proof they need that ABM's ads consistently received failing grades.
We've already seen how willing liberal organizations have started smearing Republicans. TakeAction Minnesota already is teaming up with AFSCME PEOPLE to smear Stewart Mills . If we had political reporters interested in connecting the dots in their reporting, Mark Dayton wouldn't get away with his nice guy act. Instead, we'd see that he's a willing participant in ABM's vicious smear campaign.
Posted Thursday, August 21, 2014 2:59 AM
No comments.
SCSU fall enrollment update
Fall Enrollment Falling Short of Goal
by Silence Dogood
The following Figure shows the fall FYE enrollment for SCSU from Fall 2006 through Fall 2013.
From the Figure, it is clear enrollment trends between Fall'06 to Fall'10 (increasing at a steady rate) and Fall'10 to Fall'13 (decreasing at a more rapid rate) are very different!
In Fall'13, the enrollment at SCSU was 6,083 FYE. As of August 19, 2014 the enrollment is 5,033 FYE, which is 1,050 FYE lower than the previous year and corresponds to a decline of 17.3%. If this was all there was to it, it would look REALLY bad! However, last fall there were also 567 FYE added due to concurrent enrollment students (on campus PSEO and S2S students). Since these students are typically added throughout fall semester it might be fair to add 567 FYE, which would bring the total to 5,600 FYE. As a result, this would reduce the drop from 1,050 FYE to 483 FYE or a decline of 7.9%. This might look a bit better.
Unfortunately, this is an overly simplistic solution and there are a couple of complications that need to be considered. Bear with me as I work through my approach to estimating Fall enrollment at SCSU.
First, the concurrent enrollment will most likely be higher than the previous year (based on recent enrollment trends in concurrent enrollment). If we assume a 10% growth, would translate into an additional 57 FYE. This would increase the fall enrollment to 5,657 FYE and corresponds to a decline of 7.0%. However, some of the estimated 624 FYE (567 + 57 = 624) of concurrent enrollment students are already registered. A majority of the on campus PSEO students have already registered for fall classes and a few of the S2S students are registered as well. Based on historical trends, if we assume that approximately 1/3rd of the students are registered, approximately 200 FYE need to be subtracted. This would reduce the fall enrollment to 5,400 FYE and corresponds to a drop of 11.2% on a year-to-year comparison.
Secondly, there are a number of students still to be registered. As a result, Fall'14 enrollment will not be down 11.2%! Last fall there were 83 new entering international students - most of whom were not yet in the US and probably not registered until the beginning of classes (which is next Monday). If we assume the same number of international students, increased by 10%, this will lead to approximately an additional 40 FYE. There will also be some additional new entering freshman (NEF) and new entering transfer students (NET), which could bump up enrollments approximately another 100 FYE.
Lastly, the graduate school produced 525 FYE in Fall'13 so some new and returning graduate students are still to register. As a WAG (wild ass guess), let's assume that 150 FYE of graduate students are still to register. Combining all of these together yields a fall enrollment of 5,694 FYE. This number would translate into an overall decline of 6.4%.
The following Figure shows the Fall FYE enrollment for SCSU from 2006 through 2014 - including an estimated 6.0% decline for Fall'14. The enrollment decline is reduced to 6.0% because of the uncertainty in some of the data and in hope of making a more conservative estimate of the decline.
It doesn't take a degree in data analytics to see that there is a significant enrollment problem! In fact, the data analytics group projected a 3.3% decline this spring for FY15 enrollments and it doesn't look like that projection is going to be very accurate! Remember, Summer FYE is in the bank and by the end of Fall semester about 60% of all fiscal year enrollment will have occurred thus making it very hard to affect the total decline.
Enrollment also translates almost directly into money. Last spring, when the administration was planning for an enrollment decline of 3.3%, it announced that it was beginning to plan for the $3,600,000 resultant shortfall. So, unless the enrollment totals 5,885 FYE (which would be the enrollment for a 3.3% decline), additional cuts will have to be made or funds will need to be drawn from the reserves. Last fall, former Provost Devinder Malhotra (now Interim President at Metro) stated that for each percent decline in enrollment an additional $628,000 would have to be cut from the budget. If former Provost Malhotra's estimate of the financial impact for declining enrollment is correct, an additional $1,700,000 would have to be cut from the budget.
No one is talking about the data analytics group wildly missing the enrollment projection (82% error) or where the additional funds will come from. President Potter in his convocation address on Wednesday morning did not mention enrollment and only vaguely talked of "challenges" for the year. At some point, the President is going to have to admit that there is a serious enrollment problem. If the enrollment for the FY15 is down 6.0% and since the summer was down 9.4% this would require significant increases in enrollment for spring semester just to be only down 6.0% for the year, SCSU's enrollment will fall to 11,661 FYE. From the enrollment high of 15,096 FYE in FY10, this represents a 22.8% drop in five years.
No one knows if this is the 'right size' but one university President remarked that 'right sizing' is just another word for failure. You decide if this enrollment trend is being successful. However, the one positive of declining enrollment is that finding parking around campus shouldn't be a problem anymore!
Posted Thursday, August 21, 2014 6:00 PM
No comments.
Dayton-DFL deficit
This summer, Gov. Dayton, the DFL and ABM (pardon the repetition) have talked up Minnesota's economy well beyond reality. As part of their schtick, they've talked about how they've solved Minnesota's deficits. They've done nothing of the sort.
Gov. Dayton's and the DFL legislature's appetite for spending is never satisfied. The gap between more and enough never closes. Whatever they've spent isn't quite enough.
Last month's revenues came in significantly short of the projection. It came in $69,000,000 short of the projection. That represents a 6.6% shortfall. Further, revenues have fallen short of projections 5 of the last 6 months, with July's shortfall being the biggest shortfall thus far.
While this doesn't prove that Minnesota is headed for a recession, it means that we're likely heading for another significant deficit. With the likelihood of another deficit increasing with each revenue shortfall, the question then becomes how Gov. Dayton and the DFL would fix the deficit.
History often serves as a guide. In February, 2007, Minnesota had a $2,200,000,000 surplus. The Rainy Day Fund was full. The DFL legislature spent every penny of the surplus. When the economy slowed, the DFL spent down the Rainy Day Fund.
With revenues falling short of projection and with Minnesota's economy shedding 4,200 jobs in July (plus revising June's job numbers down by 3,600), there's no question a significant deficit is on its way. The only questions left are a) how big will the deficit be and b) how soon will Gov. Dayton and the DFL admit that their budget didn't fix the deficit.
This has ramifications beyond Minnesota's economy, too. Gov. Dayton and the DFL have an incentive for not admitting that their policies have failed. If these economic figures got out during a gubernatorial debate at the Great Minnesota Get Together, Gov. Dayton and the DFL would be put on the defensive by Minnesotans.
I hope that Jeff Johnson highlights these economic statistics in his stump speech. If he starts highlighting the fact that Gov. Dayton's tax increases have led to shrinking revenues and job cuts, he'll paint Gov. Dayton and the DFL legislature into a corner.
Posted Thursday, August 21, 2014 1:11 PM
Comment 1 by Chad Q at 21-Aug-14 03:24 PM
If Jeff Johnson doesn't point out these economic stats along with Dayton's ineptness, he's a fool. If he or any other republican tries to run a "nice" campaign, they are going to get beat by the DFL machine.
Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 21-Aug-14 06:00 PM
I agree.
Dayton's debate-ducking dilemma
While it's guaranteed that Mark Dayton and Jeff Johnson will debate, it's equally true that Gov. Dayton is ducking high-profile debates. Eventually, that will turn into a dilemma for Gov. Dayton and the DFL.
While it's predictable that Gov. Dayton doesn't want to debate Jeff Johnson at the State Fair just a week after a terrible jobs report, that doesn't mean that he'll be able to dodge the subject of Minnesota's slumping economy forever.
While the Alliance for a Better Minnesota produces videos touting the fictional blessings of Gov. Dayton's policies, last month's jobs report proves that Gov. Dayton's and the DFL's policies are failing.
Thus far this year, Minnesota's economy has created a pathetic 2,900 jobs. That's an average of 414 jobs created per month.
Let's look beyond raw job creation figures, though. Let's specifically look at the July jobs report. That report shows that Minnesota's economy lost 4,200 jobs in July and that June's jobs totals were revised downward by 3,600 jobs.
June's and July's job creation figures are, at minimum, disturbing, especially after the weak job growth to start 2014. By the time Gov. Dayton finally agrees to debate, it'll be apparent that Gov. Dayton's and the DFL's economic policies are failing.
By mid-September, Gov. Dayton's campaign will be peril. Bloggers like myself, Mitch Berg and Bill Glahn will have had the time to talk about the sluggish economy in outstate Minnesota. By that time, the MNGOP will have highlighted how metro-centric Gov. Dayton's policies are.
The Dayton debate-ducking dilemma is that it gives Republicans the opportunity to highlight Gov. Dayton's mistakes. It's giving the GOP time to say that the decisions made by the all-DFL state government have produce pathetic job growth. It gives Republicans the time to highlight the all-Twin Cities DFL ticket.
Most importantly, it gives Republicans the time to plant seeds of doubt with suburban, exurban and rural voters about a) Gov. Dayton's competence and b) Gov. Dayton's disinterest in outstate Minnesota.
When Gov. Dayton finally takes the debate stage, there will be lots of pressure on him to convince voters that he's the right man to lead Minnesota the next 4 years. While Gov. Dayton is a likable fellow, he's shown flashes of ineptitude, too.
While there's a short-term gain for Team Dayton for ducking the State Fair debates, there's a ton of downside for the Dayton campaign. Republicans will have plenty of time to give people the facts about Gov. Dayton's mishandling of Minnesota's economy.
In the end, that's the thing Gov. Dayton should be most worried about.
Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 2:38 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 22-Aug-14 03:47 PM
Gary:
Lets not forgot the over under on Dayton saying "I didn't read the bill before signing it" is ten!
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Brown closes gap with Shaheen
A month ago, it looked like Scott Brown's second Senate bid was in trouble. According to this article , stories of Brown's demise are definitely premature:
In the WMUR/UNH survey released Thursday night, Shaheen led Brown by 46 percent to 44 percent, which is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
This latest numbers show a dramatic swing in Brown's direction from the previous WMUR/UNH poll, which was conducted a month-and-a-half earlier and showed Shaheen leading Brown by 12 points.
It's understatement to say that the trend isn't Shaheen's friend. It's probably overstating things to say she's in trouble but I don't think it's wrong to say that she's got some tough campaigning ahead. This statement from Sen. Shaheen's campaign manager is definitely overstatement:
In a statement released after the survey's results were released, Shaheen campaign manager Mike Vlacich said that the incumbent has been 'ready for a competitive race since day one. Jeanne Shaheen is still leading all of her potential opponents because Granite State voters know and trust her,' he said.
The first question I'd ask Mr. Vlacich is pretty straightforward: If New Hampshire trusts her, why aren't they showing it?
Going from a 12-point lead to a 2-point lead isn't how people normally express confidence in a candidate.
Conventional wisdom says that Republicans don't have to defeat Shaheen to retake the majority in the Senate. It's thought that Democrats can't maintain their majority if they lose Shaheen's seat.
At this point, I'm thinking a Brown victory over Shaheen would be nice icing on the GOP's cake. Similarly, while I'm not predicting anything at this point, I'm thinking that winning 8 seats is possible for the GOP.
Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 3:23 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 22-Aug-14 12:32 PM
Gary:
I think the more important thing about this poll is that Sheenan is below 50%. That is the magic indicator that the person is in trouble to be reelected.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
MNsure: Dayton's competency test
When it was first launched, Democrats praised MNsure, Gov. Dayton's health insurance exchange. If Democrats are smart, which is still open to debate, Democrats should run from the issue. A pair of stories, this story from CBS and this story from KSTP , show that MNsure is a disaster:
More than 3,700 people in Minnesota are waiting for changes to be made to their health insurance. They purchased private health insurance through the state health exchange known as MNsure. The enrollment period for health insurance ended in April, but people can change or add to their plans if they qualify for "Life Events."
As disgusting as that is, this is worse:
MNsure officials tell us about 350 people are waiting to add a person to their coverage. They say most of the cases involve things like an address change.
With MNsure closing approximately 100 cases per day, MNsure should get caught up with that backlog by October, which is just in time for the premium increases. On a serious note, though, MNsure has taken months to do what it took agents to do in minutes. Changing a person's address shouldn't take months. Adding a newborn baby to a policy shouldn't take months.
Minnesotans spent $160,000,000 on a website that can't even make routine changes. This represents a major step back in health insurance. This isn't just working out a few flaws. MNsure has been riddled with difficulties since its launch. The biggest thing is that most of MNsure's difficulties are inexcusable.
The things that they're talking about in these stories should be routine. They should be routine because they were routine prior to the ACA.
Gov. Dayton insisted that Minnesota establish a health insurance exchange. Now that it's a disaster, Gov. Dayton and the DFL should be judged on MNsure's pathetic performance.
Minnesota's economy just took a major hit when it lost 4,200 jobs in July. With MNsure now qualifying as a disaster, too, the biggest items on Gov. Dayton's and the DFL's agendas should be considered failures.
That's why Gov. Dayton's competence should be questioned. At this point, the verifiable facts say that he's a failure.
Posted Saturday, August 23, 2014 12:46 AM
No comments.
Larry Jacobs, DFL operative?
Friday night at the Great Minnesota Get Together, Larry Jacobs offered his predictable commentary on the various races throughout most of the Almanac Roundtable. Then Prof. Jacobs said something so ridiculous that it must be challenged. Here's what he said that's questionable:
But, within the states, such as gubernatorial races, the dynamics are a little different. For instance, in Minnesota, the economy is doing very well. People feel much more optimistic than they do nationally and that's probably going to create a little different dynamic.
It's insulting to hear a person who's one of the go-to political gurus in Minnesota say something that assinine. I'm tempted to start a petition telling Prof. Jacobs that there's more to political punditry than regurgitating the DFL's chanting points.
Further, later this weekend, I'm going to send Prof. Jacobs an email telling him that he isn't helping his credibility to ignore DEED's (Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development) monthly jobs reports, which he's obviously doing. If he'd been reading those reports, he'd notice a couple things that won't help Gov. Dayton.
First, DEED's latest jobs report showed that a) Minnesota's economy shed 4,200 jobs in July and b) DEED revised June's jobs report downward by 3,600 jobs. Next, if Prof. Jacobs had paid attention, he'd see that Minnesota's economy created a wimpy 2,900 total jobs thus far this year.
HINT TO PROF. JACOBS: Creating dozens of jobs a month isn't proof of the economy "doing very well." In most parts of the state, that's considered rather pathetic.
Had Prof. Jacobs looked at the top 5 cities in terms of job creation for the past 12 months, the Twin Cities led the way with 46,339 jobs create, followed by St. Cloud with 2,894 jobs, then several cities with 1,000-1,200 jobs created each.
That means cities like Alexandria, Brainerd, Fairmont, Little Falls, Moorhead, Owatonna, Redwood Falls and Thief River Falls and regions like the Iron Range essentially didn't experience job growth. Doesn't Prof. Jacobs think that those cities and regions should have prospering economies? If not, why not?
I get it that most nonagricultural jobs are in the Twin Cities. I'll stipulate that it's probably been that way since the Perpich administration left office. I won't stipulate, however, that that's the right economic model for Minnesota. It isn't right that Gov. Dayton's economic policies haven't created economic opportunities in outstate Minnesota.
Prof. Jacobs has spent too much time in Minneapolis. It's time he started paying attention to cities outside the Twin Cities. Those cities deserve economic prosperity, too.
Yes, I was being sarcastic when I asked if Prof. Jacobs was a DFL operative. Still, I'll start respecting Prof. Jacobs more when Prof. Jacobs starts paying attention to the world outside the Twin Cities on a consistent basis.
Minnesota's economy isn't "doing very well." It's time that the Twin Cities pundits figured that out.
Posted Sunday, August 24, 2014 4:42 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 24-Aug-14 07:51 AM
Gary:
When you Professor Jacobs that email ask him since Wisconsin has created over 150,000 jobs so far this year why don't people feel good about the economy in Wisconsin?
I bet it's because everyone in Wisconsin is being told that the economy is bad when it isn't while everyone in Minnesota (left liberal groups) are trying to say Minnesota is doing great.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by Sean at 24-Aug-14 10:49 AM
Wisconsin hasn't created 150,000 jobs this year. It hasn't even created 150,000 jobs in Walker's entire term.
http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/promises/walk-o-meter/promise/526/create-250000-new-jobs/
Comment 3 by Chad Q at 24-Aug-14 03:20 PM
Citing totally biased "news" sources to make your point only makes you look foolish.
Wisconsin gained jobs in July whereas Minnesota lost them. We have only just started to feel the effects of the DFL tax, tax, tax, and spend, spend, spend policy/ideology and if the DFL remains in control, we will end up like Detroit.
Comment 4 by walter hanson at 24-Aug-14 07:45 PM
Sean:
I hate to tell you this the DWD (you can say that is Wisconsin's department of labor) had reported at the end of December 2013 Wisconsin had employment of 2,751,845. At the end of June 2014 they had reported that Wisconsin had 2,906,100 for employment. That is a gain of 154,255.
So that source you citing and believe is lying to you.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 5 by Sean at 25-Aug-14 11:09 AM
Can you give me a link to that data? I don't see numbers that match that anywhere on their website.
For instance, this release from August 14 says the state has added 36,100 private sector jobs in the last year.
http://worknet.wisconsin.gov/worknet_info/Publications/PressRelease/state.pdf
Response 5.1 by Gary Gross at 25-Aug-14 11:47 AM
This Strib article is where I first found the troubling economic data. Check this out in the headline:
State lost 4,200 jobs in July
Only 2,900 jobs have been added since January, a much slower pace than in 2013.
Comment 6 by Sean at 25-Aug-14 01:35 PM
I was referring to Walter's 150,000 jobs claim, actually. I agree that the MN jobs picture this year has been shaky, although the notion that we lost jobs in July in and of itself means little. Historically, Minnesota has pretty consistently lost jobs in July (10 of the last 15 years, IIRC).
Comment 7 by walter hanson at 25-Aug-14 02:53 PM
Sean:
I went to the DWD website and got out two employment reports. The one that they did to show what was the unemployement for December 2013 which showed how many people were employed December 2013. And the one that they did to show unemployment for June 2014 that showed how many people were employed June 2014.
The numbers I took off their own website. Unlike anti Walker people like you I don't try to create lying charts. I just report facts.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 8 by Sean at 25-Aug-14 03:39 PM
If I go here:
http://worknet.wisconsin.gov/worknet/daces.aspx?menuselection=da
and select Wisconsin in #1, 2014 and 2013 in #2, and Total Non-Farm in #3...
I get 2,852,500 jobs in December 2013 and 2,887,100 jobs in July 2014.
Comment 9 by walter hanson at 25-Aug-14 09:55 PM
Sean:
This is how I got my numbers.
One I went to DWD.Wisconsin/gov/.
Two, on their main page is a search line.
Three, I typed in June 2014 unemployment. I get a bunch of news releases.
Four, if you hit the third one of the group you get the 2014 June unemployment report they published on July 17, 2014.
On the third page they announce their employment which
is 2,906,100. On the fourth page is data for December 2013 employment which is 2,751,485. Thus I have a good reason to say that Wisconsin has gained 154,615 jobs.
But lets use your numbers for a second. By your own admission Wisconsin has gained 34,600 jobs while Minnesota hasn't gained even 10,000 jobs this year.
By your admission you have shown Wisconsin is doing three times better than Minnesota. And based on what Mark Dayton and the Democrats have done Minnesota could actually be moving backwards now.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 10 by Sean at 26-Aug-14 09:41 AM
You can't compare those two numbers because they come from different surveys. Your December 2013 number is from the quarterly survey, which hits 96% of businesses, while the monthly numbers are from a survey that goes to 3.5% of employers.
You need to compare numbers from the same survey over different time periods to get an accurate reflection of job growth.
Comment 11 by walter hanson at 26-Aug-14 10:19 AM
Well the other number came from the federal government and was on the same report. Isn't the Feds suppose to have accurate numbers to use as a baseline comparison?
Still since the basic point I've been trying to make is that Wisconsin is in better shape than Minnesota and heading in the right direction as you have shown the numbers for Wisconsin while smaller are certainly far better than Minnesota. And this time next year Minnesota's can easily be far worse.
Walker has got Wisconsin going in the right direction while Dayton and the democrats have Minnesota going in the wrong direction.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Raising taxes, spending foolishly
This article highlights the foolish priorities that taxpayers have the ability to stop. Here's what I'm talking about:
An airport that serves the whole Central Minnesota area is looking for financial support from that region. St. Cloud Regional Airport was the first recipient of revenues from the half-cent local option sales tax when it was established in 2003. Residents will vote in November on whether to continue that source of revenue.
The airport is one of the three regional projects, including trail connections and the community and aquatics center, that would benefit from the tax extension.
"It's our greatest example of a true regional project," St. Cloud Mayor Dave Kleis said.
With all due respect to Mayor Kleis, spending money on the airport is a waste of money. A few years ago, money was spent on upgrading the airport. About a year later, scheduled air service was discontinued. The airport parking lot was empty until St. Cloud agreed to terms with Allegiant Air to provide charter service to Arizona.
This is the part of the article that I find offensive:
A $5 million terminal expansion is planned that would need $500,000 in sales tax. The airport was expanded in 2008, and Airport Director Bill Towle said a majority of that work was to bring the building up to new security standards.
The new project would add space to the main lobby area. Towle said the area is overcrowded with the restaurant and lines from the check-in area. Now that hundreds of travelers go through the terminal with daily air service, more space is needed.
There also needs to be more room for baggage claim and the space where bags are stored before being put on the plane, he said.
What happens when scheduled air service to Chicago ends? Then all that money will have been spent foolishly. This graphic shows how underutilized the St. Cloud Regional Airport is:
First, an explanation of the acronyms is in order. LF stands for load factor. To make a profit, airlines need a load factor of at least 70%. The chart shows that they've hit that 70% mark twice thus far. They're projected to hit and exceed that over Labor Day weekend, too.
What's disturbing is that a significant percentage of the rest of the days fall far short of that 70% mark. Simply put, Skywest Airlines isn't profitable. They'd need a huge increase in traffic to make a profit.
That isn't likely considering the fact that airfare out of Minneapolis is 25% cheaper than flying out of St. Cloud. Why would taxpayers vote for a tax that pays for something that won't get used 3 years from now? (BTW, three years is being charitable.)
While I don't doubt that the airport is busy right now, there's little doubt that it won't be busy if SkyWest opts out in a year. I'm skeptical that air service is viable because the load factor statistics provide an indication of how little interest there is in this travel option.
Posted Sunday, August 24, 2014 4:38 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 24-Aug-14 07:56 AM
Gary:
I didn't see it in the article, but how much of the lack of the use of the airport can be tied to SCSU ending it's aviation program a couple of years ago?
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by wanderer at 24-Aug-14 11:04 AM
"Build it and they will come" is a wonderful inspiration for fantasy movie. As the enrollment at SCSU continues to decline, perhaps the air traffic for families visiting students and employees traveling on business will decrease - it surely won't increase.
Comment 3 by wanderer at 24-Aug-14 11:08 AM
Another thought. Mesaba regional flights through St Cloud also were supported by small flights connecting from other regional airports north of STC. That traffic was factored into the previous airport expansion and improvement. Also, wasn't the runway lengthened to accommodate larger planes? What are those folks doing now and how would we replace them if their airports no longer have regional carriers routing through STC? At MSP the shuttle vans are doing great business, not just to St Cloud but to Bemidji, etc.
Comment 4 by A for profit guy at 24-Aug-14 04:35 PM
I flew for a regional carrier and I can tell you that without subsidies at the Federal level(that no longer exist)when the $900,000.00 runs out so will the Carrier.
Perhaps we could request how hard that fund has been hit so far given the load factors that are having to be carried by that fund. That would provide an accurate calender of when it will be over.
I suppose someone could persuade Lutheran Social Services to have direct flights from Mogadishu. We may have to wait until they field a candidate for Mayor.
The Somalis are the only thing increasing in St Cloud, which will continue to drive SCSU students away. What the heck do parents from other parts think when touring a campus when there are more goat markets now than McDonalds......Hmmmmmmm?
St Cloud does not need "air service" anyway and as before it will disappear and as before they will spend more money making it "better" just before it does.
Comment 5 by Overseas student at 24-Aug-14 06:31 PM
It is clear SCSU is not willing to become a community partner providing graduates for critical needed areas that have a shortage of qualified workers in the airline industry like pilots and managers. Instead, they installed an irrigation system in the community garden at a time where enrollments have seen a decline approaching 25%.
