September 15-20, 2015
Sep 15 04:33 Scott Walker's imaginary woes Sep 15 17:11 DFL voter suppression Sep 16 05:34 Gina McCarthy's impeachment? Sep 16 06:24 Hansen "seething" over DFL tactics Sep 18 10:12 Fiorina bullies Christie? Sep 19 05:43 The invincible Trump is gone Sep 19 11:31 Hillary's unforgivable mistake? Sep 20 00:26 Countering Schumer's budget spin Sep 20 02:35 Mills forms exploratory committee
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Scott Walker's imaginary woes
During the second segment of last night's All Star Panel of Special Report, George Will made some news about Scott Walker. First, it's important to preface Mr. Will's information by saying he said, as he always does, that his wife works for Gov. Walker's campaign. Second, A.B. Stoddard preceded Mr. Will's opinions by saying she thought Gov. Walker was all but finished.
With that out of the way, Mr. Will said "Beyond that, because I'm sleeping with the campaign, I might as well give inside information. They have polls showing the following: among those in Iowa who have voted in the last caucus -- these are actually people who don't just talk to pollsters -- he is ahead of Trump and with those real Republicans who've been to the last 2 Iowa caucuses, he's in the lead."
That doesn't mean Gov. Walker will win the Iowa Caucuses. It doesn't mean that Gov. Walker is leading outright, either. As Charles Krauthammer pointed out moments later, we don't know if Trump will bring out a new batch of activists to the caucuses. That's a distinct possibility, though it isn't a certainty for Trump, either.
Still, the Iowa Caucuses aren't like other presidential nominating events. Often times, these caucuses are held in people's homes or at the local fire station or public school. Each of the caucus-goers has the potential to be called on to defend their upcoming vote. Theoretically speaking, if there's a pair of caucus-goers who like Lindsey Graham, that might not meet the threshold of that precinct. That's when those caucus-goers have the option to support another candidate.
Theoretically speaking again, if there's a pair of caucus-goers who support Gov. Huckabee but there aren't enough Huckabee supporters to meet the threshold, those 4 caucus-goers might support Gov. Walker. It's possible that those 4 'second-choice' supporters of Gov. Walker might tip things in Gov. Walker's favor, helping him win the most delegates from that precinct.
That's why it's important to be people's second choice if they're supporting lower tier candidates initially. Those 'second-choice' voters might be the margin of victory in lots of precincts.
But I digress.
It's quite possible that the Trump effect isn't that big as the national polls suggest. I'm not disputing whether Trump is supported by lots of people. It's apparent that he is. Still, national polls of adults that finally screen 350-375 likely GOP voters nationwide aren't great predictors of electoral success. It's one thing to show up at a Trump rally. It's another thing to volunteer for Trump as a precinct captain, then organize call operations for Trump.
Gov. Walker's GOTV operation knows this. They've been at his side for 3 elections in the last 4 years. Gov. Walker's supporters will turn out.
That's why I'm skeptical of Mr. Trump's staying power.
Posted Tuesday, September 15, 2015 4:59 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 15-Sep-15 07:09 PM
Is this a prediction? Can I take it to Vegas?
Or just a heads up, maybe, so don't be surprised?
DFL voter suppression
ALERT -- THREAT TO DEMOCRACY: A loyal reader of LFR just contacted me with the alarming news that there will only be 13 polling stations open for the upcoming school board vote on a bonding referendum. There's normally 60 in St. Cloud. The school board certainly hasn't publicized that fact!
That means the potential exists for thousands of voters to show up at their precinct to vote on this $167,000,000 referendum and find out that their polling station isn't open, which will cause them to either find their new polling station or go home frustrated that they couldn't vote.
The school board is 100% liberal. It's been that way for 30+ years. Two years ago, some Republicans tried getting elected. They were defeated even though they were highly qualified teachers. The word got out that they weren't "real" education experts, meaning that 'they weren't one of us'.
Now the DFL is shutting down 47 of the usual 60 voting stations in an attempt to keep voter turnout limited to 'their people' to ensure there's no opposition to raising our property taxes. If this doesn't scream of voter suppression, then the phrase is without meaning.
Posted Tuesday, September 15, 2015 5:11 PM
Comment 1 by Rex Newman at 15-Sep-15 06:40 PM
While this certainly fits the narrative, I think the rules are different when only the school district is holding an election. When my district did one of these recently, my polling place was different than my normal even year November polling place. The City runs the latter, but the District runs (and pays for) the school only referenda.
Further, with only a 1 line ballot, the time per voter is much less so they can argue that 17 stations is sufficient unless the miles traveled is excessive. And there is early voting to cast your vote, right?
Damn, I sound like a Democrat here. But your assertion remains correct, that this will only help the school (i.e. DFL) try to slip this one past the goalie.
Gina McCarthy's impeachment?
Rep. Paul Gosar, (R-AZ), is moving to impeach EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy . (Follow this link to read Rep. Gosar's resolution.) While I don't think that McCarthy's offense rises to the level of an impeachable offense, Rep. Gosar's resolution isn't without merit.
Rep. Gosar notes that, "on Feb. 4, McCarthy [testified that] the EPA was 'not expanding jurisdiction of the Clean Water Act, we are not eliminating any exemptions or exclusions in this proposal, we are in fact narrowing the jurisdiction of the Clean Water Act consistent with sound science and the law.'" Rep. Gosar then highlights the fact that "the EPA's website contradicts this, saying that 3.2 percent of additional waters will be found jurisdictional and that 'until now 60 percent of our streams and millions of acres of wetlands all across the country were not protected.'"
McCarthy insists that the two conflicting statements don't conflict with each other. Further, it's clear that this administration isn't interested in "narrowing the jurisdiction" of federal regulators. That statement is ridiculous. When then-Candidate Obama said that he wanted to "fundamentally transform" America, he didn't mean that he'd insist on limiting the scope of government.
Posted Wednesday, September 16, 2015 5:34 AM
No comments.
Hansen "seething" over DFL tactics
According to the Mesabi Daily News, Bill Hansen is "seething" that the DFL won't hold an endorsing convention before the special election to fill the House seat caused by Rep. David Dill's death after a bout with cancer. Paul Fish, the chair of the SD-3 DFL, issued a statement, saying that "The residents of House District 3A lost a true champion with the passing of Rep. David Dill", adding that "the voters of 3A deserve the opportunity to select the DFL candidate who best represents their interests. Therefore, a DFL endorsing convention for the 3A seat will not be held.'
According to the article, Hansen "is the only DFL candidate publicly opposing the PolyMet (near Hoyt Lakes and Babbitt) and Twin Metals (near Ely and Babbitt) copper/nickel/precious metals projects."
It isn't a stretch to think that the SD-3 DFL didn't want to endorse anyone because it might pit environmental activists on Lake Superior's North Shore against the miners in Hibbing, Virginia and Eveleth. DFL State Chairman Ken Martin has done more tapdancing to avoid setting off that fight than you'd see in an old-fashioned musical.
At the 2014 DFL State Convention, a resolution stating that the DFL supports mining wasn't brought up by the Platform Committee because it was deemed "to controversial." That was a stunning defeat for the Iron Range because the initial resolution was watered down to the resolution that wasn't brought up.
Posted Wednesday, September 16, 2015 6:24 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 18-Sep-15 06:07 AM
Welfare for mining firms is welfare.
As is Wilfare.
Some kinds of welfare are okay, others not?
Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 18-Sep-15 10:21 AM
Eric, how is approving mining according to state statute welfare? This company has had this project 'under review' for almost a decade. If anything, it's a picture of how corrupt regulatory agencies are.
Fiorina bullies Christie?
According to this CNN article , Carly Fiorina bullied Chris Christie during Wednesday night's debate. According to Gov. Christie, "Carly Fiorina talked too much [Wednesday] night about herself and not enough about the issues." Apparently, this is part of Christie's post-debate spin. That's rich considering the fact that the CNN article noted that "From the moment he took the stage, Christie tried to emphasize the idea that he was focused more on voters than himself."
This reeks of sour grapes and spin. First, it's foolish to think that Carly Fiorina didn't talk about the issues. When asked about military preparedness, Mrs. Fiorina gave one of the most comprehensive answers in debate history, speaking about how many divisions the Army needed and how many ships the Navy needed.
Put differently, Mrs. Fiorina answered the questions on point. Not only were Mrs. Fiorina's answers on point. They displayed a grasp of the minutiae and the big picture. Other than that, Mrs. Fiorina's answers were what you'd expect of a typical politician.
From a different perspective, Gov. Christie isn't a stranger to this process. While it's good form to let the person answer the question, it's often the person who jumps into the conversation that benefits the most. Mr. Christie hasn't shown a reluctance to interrupt people at townhall meetings. Why wouldn't he take this opportunity?
Posted Friday, September 18, 2015 10:12 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 20-Sep-15 11:24 AM
Before Fiorina was getting headlines and moving up on polls there was much written about Ben Carson as pulling even with Trump in at least one poll. Now that seems to have quelled somewhat - in terms of reporting if not in polling.
Do you see Carson's fate fading, holding strong along with Fiorina, or just an ebb and flow but with Trump continuing to hold a changing larger plurality segment of poll respondents?
Is there any specific point and time where you'd see Trump dropping to second or third in the polls, and would it be something specific or the old saying, familiarity breeds contempt - without any predictable time for any such shift?
Carson, Trump and Fiorina are the three who've never held office - reported in some places as an advantage - with it appearing Trump is the only one currently active in owning and running a business. Do you read anything of substance into such reporting, as a mood of the electroate or such?
Comment 2 by eric z at 20-Sep-15 11:32 AM
Making the complaint gained Christie mention of his name.
In a crowded field, attention good or bad might be better than no attention at all. Unless it is the "when will he quit" attention that Perry got and that Walker is now getting.
Christie saying that what he has to say is equally worthy as what Fiorina may say is only to be expected.
Whether that proves true or not is part of the winnowing.
The invincible Trump is gone
One of the major things to come out of this week's GOP debate on CNN is that Donald Trump doesn't look like the behemoth that can't be beat anymore. While I give lots of the credit for puncturing that image to Carly Fiorina, it isn't fair to say that she's the only one to draw blood against him.
When Hugh Hewitt asked Mr. Trump if the three senators on stage shared the responsibility for the refugee crisis in eastern Europe by not authorizing the use of military force, Mr. Trump said that they should accept part of the responsibility for the crisis. The minute Mr. Trump finished his statement, Sen. Rubio pounced, saying "We bear no responsibility. Let's remember what the President said. He said that the attacks that he would conduct was going to be a pin prick. Well, the United State's military wasn't built to conduct pin prick attacks. If the United States military is going to be engaged by a commander-in-chief, it should only be engaged in an endeavor to win and we're not going to authorize the use of force if you're not going to put them in a position to win. And, quite frankly, people don't trust this president as commander-in-chief because of that."
Here's the exchange between Mr. Trump and Sen. Rubio:
While that won't dissuade Mr. Trump's true believers, it's something that will resonate with those activists who aren't already infected with Trumpmania Syndrome. In the past, lightweight candidates like Lindsey Graham and ultra-establishment candidates like Jeb Bush haven't hit Mr. Trump with the lethal hits that were required.
That changed prior to this week's GOP Debate. It isn't surprising that the 2 consensus winners of Wednesday night's debate, Mrs. Fiorina and Sen. Rubio, got in the best shots against Mr. Trump. It isn't surprising because their messaging has always been the most crisp, the most hard-hitting on the GOP side.
There's an old hunting saying that teaches that 'you don't want to track a wounded grizzly', which applies to Mr. Trump. If you aren't going to rhetorically hit Mr. Trump with lethal force, don't hit him at all. I'd argue, though, that you don't belong in the race if you can't hit Mr. Trump with lethal force.
The campaign, in its truest form, should be a clash of titans. Those that can't compete at that highest level needn't apply.
Posted Saturday, September 19, 2015 6:47 AM
Comment 1 by eric a at 20-Sep-15 10:55 AM
Your chosen image posts a question. Without looking, I can name two Senators, Rubio [who's shown], and Graham. Also, Santorum in the past but out of office well before the Syrian fan loaded up.
Graham? Where was he on the Arab Spring, and the Libyan regime change, and political support of the Saudis where IS is their Sunni fighting surrogate in wanting to displace the Shiite friendly Assad regime?
Comment 2 by eric z at 20-Sep-15 11:04 AM
Rand Paul is the third senator, the one I could not recall. I always think of him as Ron Paul's son, and an eye surgeon. Rubio's comment sounded a lot like the Bush rhetoric going into Iraq; going in to win, to make the world and nation safe for democracy stuff, chemical weapons of mass destruction. It seems Rubio and Trump both talked around the question that Congress alone is authorized to declare a war, not the Executive; and Congress declined with many believing it to have been an extermely sound decision to not mire the military in Syria. And it takes fortitude for those in Congress to go on record to instigate a war, especially since the outcome can be a mess, as in Iraq, where Congress handed off responsibility to Executive neocons who screwed things up royally.
Hillary's unforgivable mistake?
Bill Clinton was one of the best retail politickers in presidential history. It's clear that Hillary wasn't blessed with the same political gifts that her husband possessed. One of the things that Bill Clinton was great at was never missing an opportunity to look magnanimous, especially with students. This article is just another example of Hillary Clinton's penchant for never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
Even though "Hillary Clinton held two events in New Hampshire on Thursday, including a heroin forum in Laconia," she'll still have to deal with the fallout from the "crisis brewing at Laconia Boys and Girls Club, one that had parents angry and some kids in tears. 8-year-old Landon, left the Boys and Girls Club disappointed and empty handed."
I'll guarantee that Bill Clinton never would've missed that opportunity, partially because he loved mixing with people, partially because he understood the political benefits of being considerate. Those are traits Hillary definitely doesn't have.
It's clear that Hillary hates retail politicking. The guarded nature of her campaign screams she hates campaigning unless she can totally control the setting.
While it's possible, maybe even likely, that she can repair the damage done in Laconia, the truth is that that's taking time away in the future to fix something that shouldn't have been broken.
Posted Saturday, September 19, 2015 11:31 AM
No comments.
Countering Schumer's budget spin
Greg Sargent's post highlights how the Democrats will attempt to use Donald Trump's and Jeb Bush's words against Republicans during the upcoming budget fight. Republicans should reject the Democrats' proposal outright. Then they should launch a counteroffensive to hit them at their weakest points. At this point, most readers of LFR are probably laughing, saying that congressional Republicans don't have the spine for that. I don't disagree. I said that's what they should do. I didn't say that that's what they would do.
Sen. Schumer is planning on using Mr. Trump's and Gov. Bush's statements on taxes against Republicans. According to Sen. Schumer's office, he'll say today "There is a developing solution that could help us strike a budget deal. If closing the carried interest loophole, ending subsidies for oil and gas, and tackling inversions are good enough for Donald Trump and Jeb Bush, it ought to be good enough for Republicans in Congress."
Republicans should attack Democrats for recommending the shrinking of the military to dangerous levels, especially in terms of size of force structure and military readiness in terms of protecting against terrorist attacks and destroying ISIS.
Further, Republicans should make the moral case against funding Planned Parenthood. There's no justification for funding them when there are other, less objectionable options. If Democrats want to turn this into a front in their contrived 'war on women' campaign, Republicans should be prepared to offer a better alternative.
Posted Sunday, September 20, 2015 12:26 AM
No comments.
Mills forms exploratory committee
A loyal reader of LFR confirmed rumors I'd heard that Stewart Mills, the GOP's candidate for the MN-08 congressional race in 2014, has formed an exploratory committee. Forming an exploratory committee is often the first step in the process of running for office.
What first got my attention was buzz that I'd heard about the NRCC spending money criticizing Rick Nolan's vote for the Iran treaty. Saying that that vote isn't popular in the district is understatement. My thought was that the NRCC wouldn't put money into a race they didn't think they had a shot at winning. That's why I contacted friends in CD-8. Tonight, I got the confirmation that Stewart Mills has officially formed an exploratory committee.
I wasn't able to find out who he's picked to serve on that committee. While exploratory committees are often a formality, there are serious considerations that go into putting a campaign together. Much of the work done by the committee is putting together a fundraising team. Other people deal with putting a communications team together while still others set up campaign offices and call centers.
Nolan hasn't delivered on getting PolyMet built, which was a major promise he made during the last campaign. It isn't just that he hasn't gotten PolyMet built. It's that he hasn't lifted a finger to get the project off the ground. It's one thing to not accomplish something. It's another thing to not put the effort in to make a project a reality.
Nolan failed on both counts.
Posted Sunday, September 20, 2015 2:35 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 20-Sep-15 09:06 AM
Go Stewart!
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by eric z at 20-Sep-15 11:10 AM
This is something that would have gone under my radar, until later, so it is good you posted it, Gary.
Comment 3 by Chad Q at 20-Sep-15 02:42 PM
So what's Stewart going to do this time that he didn't do last time? I think he ran a good clean and effective campaign yet he got his butt handed to him. The fools in CD-8 deserve Nolan, low wages, and the unemployment they continually vote for.
Response 3.1 by Gary Gross at 20-Sep-15 07:26 PM
Quit being overly dramatic. Stewart didn't get "his butt handed to him." Here's what KSTP wrote about the election:
Nolan edged Mills by a little more than 1 percentage point - or about 3,600 votes out of some 265,000 cast.Nolan is getting criticized for voting for the Iran treaty, which isn't popular in the 8th District.
Comment 4 by eric z at 21-Sep-15 09:22 AM
Chad - Mills cut his hair. Hence, he will do at least one thing different. I think it makes him look like Dan Quayle.
