October 29-31, 2018
Oct 29 04:44 Why the blue wave died Oct 29 05:20 Walz plays politics with Tree of Life Synagogue shooting Oct 29 11:10 Lewis lands major union endorsements Oct 29 13:43 Keith Ellison's partisan agenda Oct 29 21:23 Ellison supports law enforcement? Oct 30 05:14 Keith Ellison can't escape Oct 31 00:45 The Democrats' next outmigration? Oct 31 09:15 I remember when Democrats knew how to debate
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Why the blue wave died
For months, we've been told that the Democrats' blue wave would swamp Republicans. We've known for awhile that this was more wishful thinking than reality but that's what we'd been told. Salena Zito, the woman who accurately predicted Trump's victory, wrote this article , which states a contrarian theory.
She asked "But what if, in all of those details working against the Republicans, experts and pollsters missed that this midterm isn't the brake-pedal that midterm elections typically are in a president's first term? What if voters weren't thinking Left/Right or stop/go as much as they were thinking in/out?"
She then wrote "For a lot of people, very little has changed in Washington since President Trump was elected. The swamp, the chaos, and the elites who know best are still there. And there's only one thing standing between them and their betters - and that's Trump."
The Swamp is still intact. Democrats are getting more insane by the day. Those are things working in the Republicans' favor. Something changed, though, during the Kavanaugh hearings:
The Kavanaugh fight might have re-sparked the old torches. As Democrats and the press came after the Supreme Court nominee and things looked bleak, Trump picked up the fallen flag of a Republican Party in retreat and charged the Establishment. And then, Lindsey Graham and the Republicans on that committee said, Follow him! And voters all around the country said, Follow them!
Like it or not, you have to view sentiments through the eyes of the voters who live outside D.C. and New York, who live in the swing districts and states that voted for Trump. They saw, for the first time, Republicans grow a spine and actually stand up angrily and loudly against Washington.
It was sort of like a Hell yeah, that's why we sent Trump there moment. The un-energized Trump voters who don't particularly like Republican or Democratic members of Congress decided they did like the party that stood up and fought against a mob leading a very Washington character assassination.
The blue wave died because Republicans, thanks to Trump, grew a spine and started standing up to Democrats. More and more each day, Republicans are going on the offensive. They're highlighting how nutty the Democrats' policies are.
It doesn't hurt when people see this:
President Trump has done a great job of painting the Democrats as the 'Open Borders Party'. When people are polled about immigration, they usually say that Democrats do a better job. When they're asked who does a better job with border security, Republicans win handily. With a migrant mob approaching, people understand that they're trying to overwhelm the system. They'll oppose that 100% of the time.
Posted Monday, October 29, 2018 4:44 AM
Comment 1 by Steve at 29-Oct-18 10:03 AM
I'm wondering if there's gonna be a blue wave here in Minnesota. As much as the polls showing the GOP within striking distance of the Governor's office and maybe one Senate seat, I'm seeing the Dems making a concerted effort to win the state House back.
They're dumping a lot of money into house districts that Hillary did well in but also have a GOP incumbent or where a GOP incumbent is retiring. I think they feel that the suburbs are now their turf because of Trump's unpopularity in those areas. They appear to be aiming at the soccer moms and millennial women.
I've heard a rumor (passed on to me by someone who heard it from a reliable source) that the Dems believe they'll regain control of the House.
Yuck, I hope not.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 29-Oct-18 11:21 AM
First, the DFL has no chance at retaking the MN House. Tim Walz still has a legit shot but he's the personification of flip-flopping. I think Pam Myra & I'm certain that Doug Wardlow will, too.
Comment 2 by Gretchen L Leisen at 29-Oct-18 01:50 PM
I echo what Steve wrote. It appears that the DFL has found some deep pockets to throw money into the MN state races.
I hope that people in outstate MN will realize how corrupt and insincere the Democrats are. I am holding out hope that Johnson will be our next governor although it is an uphill battle.
As for Tina Smith, she needs to be retired by Karin Housley. The polls are still close, but Smith is a nonentity. However, again, she seems to be doing a lot of advertising in the last week of the campaign. Go Karin! Defeat the imposter from Planned Parenthood.
I do believe Keith Ellison is going down to defeat. Doug Wardlow will be our next AG.
Response 2.1 by Gary Gross at 29-Oct-18 08:26 PM
We must finish the race for the legislature. That being said, if we keep doing our jobs, there isn't a snowball's prayer in H-E-double-toothpicks that we'll lose the MN House.
Walz plays politics with Tree of Life Synagogue shooting
Tim Walz just couldn't resist the opportunity to play politics after the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting . After the shooting, Walz took to Twitter to say "As we learn more about what's happened in Pittsburgh, my heart goes out to the victims, loved ones, first responders, and Jewish community at large. This is a pain that is all too familiar in America. We can and must take action to reduce gun violence in our communities."
Does anyone seriously think he cares about the people killed by this gunman? I certainly don't. This is just another attempt by Walz to curry favor with the gun grabber fringe in the DFL.
As we learn more about what's happened in Pittsburgh, my heart goes out to the victims, loved ones, first responders, and Jewish community at large. This is a pain that is all too familiar in America. We can and must take action to reduce gun violence in our communities.
- Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) October 27, 2018
It's clear that Tim Walz has gone from being a reliable vote for the NRA to being a reliable vote for Michael Bloomberg. He's no longer a centrist. He's a leftist. On Nov. 6, it's time to retire Tim Walz, Tina Smith and Keith Ellison.
Posted Monday, October 29, 2018 5:20 AM
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Lewis lands major union endorsements
I had to pinch myself to be certain I'd read this article right. I wasn't imagining things. Sure enough, it really opened by saying "Two of the largest trade unions in Minnesota are backing the reelection campaign of Republican representative Jason Lewis against a Democratic business executive. The carpenters' union and International Union of Operating Engineers Local 49, both of which endorsed Hillary Clinton, will support the first-term congressman in the midterm elections in his rematch against former health care executive Angie Craig. Labor leaders praised Lewis's record in Congress, highlighting his support for domestic energy development as well as his willingness to buck his political party. Lewis has supported Davis-Bacon, which favors union wage levels in federal projects despite the push in the conservative movement to abolish wage mandates."
Here's their explanation:
"In Jason's time in Congress he has cast repeated votes in support of Davis-Bacon prevailing wage and has led on the issue of changing school curriculum to encourage more people to look at careers in the construction industry," carpenters' spokesman Adam Duininck said in a release.
First, if the name Adam Duininck sounds familiar, it's because he was Mark Dayton's chair of the Met Council. Then there's this:
"Jason Lewis has made an effort to get to know our Union, understand our issues, and has taken politically tough stances in support of good paying Union jobs," George said in a statement. "We don't always agree on every issue, but we know that when it comes to supporting our jobs, he has stood with us, and that is why we are standing with him."
Lewis offered this reply:
This is a major victory for Lewis. This can't help Angie Craig.
"I'm working hard to make certain we get Enbridge so we get the Pine Bend refinery in the second district : the oil it needs to grow the economy," Lewis said in the Oct. 21 debate. "My opponent says, 'well Sierra Club won't let me endorse that.'" Lewis pledged to continue advocating for local laborers in Congress. He said he will continue to focus on workforce training and revamping the apprenticeship system, one of the Trump administration's priorities, "so labor groups are able to thrive with adequately trained laborers."
"This nation was built on the backs of hardworking Minnesotans like those belonging to these two groups and it is important we support them with our policies in Washington," he said in a statement. "I am proud to have supported them in my first-term in Congress and look forward to continuing to work on their behalf."
Posted Monday, October 29, 2018 11:10 AM
Comment 1 by Steve at 29-Oct-18 05:00 PM
I hope Jason will use these endorsements in his campaign. There are several areas in Dakota County where labor has clout.
In order to win (IMHO), Jason must hold down Craig's vote in Dakota County.
This strikes me as an avenue to do that. Picture some mailings with the words "Jason Lewis: labor Endorsed Republican" going out in Newport, South St Paul, etc.
It couldn't hurt.
Keith Ellison's partisan agenda
Keith Ellison isn't hiding the fact that he won't uphold laws he doesn't like. That's what he's saying in this video:
[Video no longer available]
Ellison said "If the state legislature passes laws that don't make sense, but are constitutional, then I'm going to have to cross that bridge when I get to it." That statement is what I'd expect from a narcissist who thinks he's the ultimate decider of which laws get enforced and which once won't. Ellison isn't arguing for the principle of prosecutorial discretion. He didn't mention a lack of resources.
Specifically, Ellison talked about laws "that don't make sense" but that are constitutional. Who gives him the authority to determine which laws makes sense? I'm certain that Minnesota's Constitution doesn't. What are Ellison's criteria for judging which laws make sense?
Apparently, being Minnesota's chief law enforcement officer doesn't interest Ellison, either:
[Video no longer available]
Apparently, Ellison thinks that the Minnesota Attorney General's office should be used to thwart President Trump's agenda or advance the Democrats' agenda. What else did he mean when he said "Some of my opponents have been trying to argue that I'm going to sort of leave the federal Congress to come back to Minnesota to try to use the state Attorney General's Office as some sort of political platform. And the truth is I do plan on doing some national litigation."
If Democrats want to sue President Trump, then let them raise the money and open their own law firm. Minnesota's taxpayers shouldn't pay the price for Keith Ellison's or the Democrats' activism.
The choice couldn't be clearer. A vote for Keith Ellison is a vote for advancing the Democrats' agenda of obstructing President Trump by any means necessary. A vote for Doug Wardlow is a vote to restore law and order in Minnesota.
Posted Monday, October 29, 2018 1:43 PM
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Ellison supports law enforcement?
In this article , Keith Ellison, the DFL's disgraced candidate for Minnesota's Attorney General's office, is quoted as saying "I value and honor all members of law enforcement and am grateful for the work they do every single day."
With all due respect to Rep. Ellison, that's a pile of BS. This letter supports #BlackLivesMatter, not law enforcement:
In the letter to the Bloomington City Attorney, Ellison is quoted as saying "I am writing in response to reports that you are considering issuing charges against the organizers of the Black Lives Matters protest at the Mall of America on Saturday, December 20."
He then adds this:
I request that you reconsider using your prosecutorial discretion to issue such charges. The purpose of the protest was to draw attention to concerns about police-community relations in light of the deaths of Eric Garner, Michael Brown and others in confrontations with police.
Ellison finished his letter by saying this:
The demonstrations didn't damage property and protesters remained peaceful the throughout the demonstration. Many Minnesotans were inconvenienced during the holiday shopping season and I understand their frustration. Nonetheless, I encourage you and city leaders to consider the broader context of what the protest represented...
Does that sound like a letter who "values and honors all members of law enforcement"? It sounds more like something that a Black Lives Matter activist might say.
Posted Monday, October 29, 2018 9:23 PM
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Keith Ellison can't escape
It's pretty clear that Keith Ellison knows a thing or two about being slippery. With a week left before Election Day, Keith Ellison is still attempting to slip away from Karen Monahan's accusations .
It's fun reading that "Keith Ellison stood in front of reporters this week desperate to redefine the attorney general's race as his poll numbers slide. The Democratic congressman's campaign has been overshadowed for the two months since his ex-girlfriend accused him of physical and emotional abuse." As the candidate with near universal name recognition, he's fighting a difficult problem:
Ellison has denied the allegations, but the damage was done. Once leading Republican opponent Doug Wardlow in polls, Ellison trails by 7 percentage points in the most recent Minneapolis Star Tribune/MPR News survey. Still, Ellison has hope: the same poll shows 16 percent of voters say they're not sure who they'll choose. So there he was Thursday in the basement conference room at the state Capitol, imploring voters to examine Wardlow's record instead of his own troubles.
Ellison doesn't have much hope. Most undecideds break away from well-known candidates. If they know who you are but are still undecided, that isn't a vote of confidence. That's a sign that voters aren't satisfied with their options.
Here's mathematical proof that Ellison is in trouble. Let's suppose that 1,000 likely voters were polled. If Ellison is getting 36% of the vote, then convinced 2/3rds of undecideds to vote him, which is highly unlikely, Ellison would finish with 467 votes. Wardlow is getting 43% of the vote. If he convinced 33% of the undecideds to vote for him, he'd finish with 483 votes.
The reality is that Ellison isn't likely to win 67% of undecideds. He'll be lucky to convince 50% of undecideds to vote for him. If Ellison and Wardlow each won half of the undecideds, Wardlow would finish with 51% of the final vote. Frankly, Ellison's support of Assata Shakur should disqualify him from being Minnesota's Attorney General:
[Video no longer available]
Then, too, so should Ellison's statement that he wouldn't uphold Minnesota laws he doesn't like. It's time to end Keith Ellison's political career.
Posted Tuesday, October 30, 2018 5:14 AM
Comment 1 by Rex newman at 30-Oct-18 07:50 PM
ICYMI, LFR got cited on Ricochet's '3 Martini' national podcast, doing a segment on Ellison's presumed demise.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 31-Oct-18 06:31 AM
Very cool. I didn't know that.
The Democrats' next outmigration?
This article is fascinating from the standpoint of exposing the next demographic group to exit the Democratic Party.
It starts by saying "Daniel Bonthius was never much interested in politics before Donald Trump came along. Both his parents are involved in the labor movement, but he earned a musical theater degree in Boston and moved to New York City to make it as an actor. Like many of the city's aspiring actors, Bonthius, 33, was waiting tables and working for an event planner - and had been doing it for most of a decade when Donald Trump obliterated the political system in 2016. After the election, a shocked Bonthius invited friends over to his home in Sunnyside, Queens, a one-time Irish enclave that has seen an influx of new residents. 'I just wanted to talk out what happened with people who felt the same way I did,' he says. That gathering eventually morphed into an Indivisible group, a grass-roots left-wing answer to the Tea Party, and in early 2017 it hosted a new candidate for Congress the first time she met with an organized group of voters: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez."
What happened next is fascinating:
New York's 14th Congressional District is more than 70 percent people of color, and 50 percent Hispanic. Ocasio-Cortez, who was born in the Bronx to a Puerto Rican mother, fit the district's changing demographics, and neatly fit a larger narrative of a national Democratic Party in which increasing progressivism and diversity go hand and hand.
But a closer examination of the data tells a different story. Ocasio-Cortez's best precincts were places like the neighborhood where Bonthius and his friends live: highly educated, whiter and richer than the district as a whole. In those neighborhoods, Ocasio-Cortez clobbered Crowley by 70 percent or more. Crowley's best precincts, meanwhile, were the working-class African-American enclave of LeFrak City, where he got more than 60 percent of the vote, and portions of heavily Hispanic Corona. He pulled some of his best numbers in Ocasio-Cortez's heavily Latino and African-American neighborhood of Parkchester, in the Bronx - beating her by more than 25 points on her home turf.
What's noticeable is that blue collar Latinos and African-Americans rejected a progressive Latino. The progressive Latino attracted white collar people, the same as a white progressive would've. That's pretty fascinating. Enter Blexit:
[Video no longer available]
Don't be surprised if blue collar people of color are the next demographic group to leave the Democrats.
Posted Wednesday, October 31, 2018 12:45 AM
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I remember when Democrats knew how to debate
I'm old enough to remember a time when Democrats knew how to substantively debate issues. I know that dates me but it's worth mentioning. I even remember a time when Juan Williams was capable of participating in a substantive debate. Sadly, those days are gone.
Back in the good old days, Christopher Hitchens, Daniel Patrick Moynihan and even Bill Clinton were capable of participating in passionate, substantive debates. Juan Williams isn't in Hitchens' and Moynihan's class. Greg Gutfeld is. Watch him utterly dismantle Williams' shallow arguments in this video:
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It was awesome watching Gutfeld say that he wouldn't take criticisms about civility after Democrats ignored his book titled "The Joy of Hate" 5+ years ago. Gutfeld talked about how he warned that the pipe bombs would happen. He said that he "wrote 13 chapters on this. We talked about this on this show. I can't take a lecture who ignored me about this concern."
Greg Gutfeld's argument was coherent. His predictions were right. Juan Williams' arguments, by comparison, have utterly disappeared with time. The reason, in my theory, is that Democrats are great at reciting that day's chanting points but they're utterly inept at applying logic and data. The Democrats' inability to grasp key principles is frightening.
This isn't my dad's Democratic Party. This bunch isn't nearly as smart and considerably less patriotic.
Posted Wednesday, October 31, 2018 9:15 AM
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