November 24-25, 2019
Nov 24 04:53 Did impeachment hurt Trump? Nov 24 05:44 Bucky Badger vs. Goldy Gopher Nov 24 12:41 The Democrats' surprise Nov 25 02:37 Civic education or propaganda? Nov 25 07:42 Campaign 2020 trail review Nov 25 08:34 Is Collin Peterson in trouble? Nov 25 12:31 If Tip O'Neill is right that all politics is local, then Schiff is in trouble
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Did impeachment hurt Trump?
According to this article by David Ignatius, last week's "testimony was damaging to the president." The next sentence from Ignatius' article says it all:
But the Wisconsin survey showed modest but nonetheless perceptible shifts in the direction favoring Trump, on the question of whether he should be impeached and also in head-to-head matchups against leading Democratic presidential candidates. What makes the Wisconsin poll important is that it is a snapshot of a state that, more than any other in the country, could decide the 2020 election.
The obvious question is simple. If the testimony was damaging to President Trump, why is he in better shape today than he was before impeachment was initiated? It's impossible, obviously, to hurt a candidate while he's rising in the polling.
This is what inside-the-Beltway thinking looks like. David Ignatius is a smart guy. Still, he's trapped thinking like others trapped inside the Beltway.
The Marquette poll found 40 percent of registered voters favoring impeachment of Trump and his removal from office, compared with 44 percent in October. At the same time, 53 percent oppose impeachment and removal, compared with 51 percent the previous month. Statistically these are tiny-to-insignificant shifts, but the direction of the changes on this and other questions are consistent.
This isn't insignificant when put into perspective. The net negative on impeachment is what's required. In October, impeach-and-remove was a net negative of -7. In November, impeach-and-remove was a net negative of -13. That's heading in the right direction for the Trump campaign:
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The results from Wisconsin also showed that, since the summer, the Democratic candidates have seen clear slippage in their support in hypothetical matchups with the president. Former vice president Joe Biden led the president by 51 percent to 42 percent in August. By October the margin was 50 percent to 44 percent. The latest poll flips the script. Trump now is ahead of Biden by 47 percent to 44 percent. The shift came primarily from movement among independents, either away from the former vice president to Trump or to a posture of saying they liked neither candidate.
If last week's testimony was damaging to the president, shouldn't that equate to bigger leads for Democrat presidential candidates? Isn't this proof that the testimony wasn't as damaging as the Beltway thinks it was? This is interesting:
Trump's current approval rating in the state, according to the Marquette poll, is 47 percent, higher than his national number and about the same as it was in the poll in October. Republicans are more unified behind him today than they were when he first ran for president.
If Democrats can't flip Wisconsin back to the blue column, there's virtually no chance of them retaking the White House. Democrats would have to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania and another Trump state to win. Trump won with 306 electoral votes. Michigan and Pennsylvania equal 26 electoral votes. Wisconsin adds another 10 electoral votes. Even if Trump lost the so-called blue firewall, he's still at 270, the winning number. The Democrat nominee would need to flip yet another red state while holding New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
I can't picture Democrats re-flipping the Blue Firewall while keeping the previous list of states. It's possible. It just isn't likely. When the votes are counted on Election Night, President Trump will still be President Trump.
Posted Sunday, November 24, 2019 4:53 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 24-Nov-19 09:48 AM
Many who are influenced by propaganda will adhere to the last thing they heard in the propaganda stream, which would be the Senate, if the House votes impeachment. All the pundits seem to assume the House will impeach, once Pelosi committed leadership to holding hearings. What if there is the set of hearings and then no hand-off to the Senate to be the last propagandizing force in this event? That would be interesting, but is it at all probable?
Comment 2 by John Palmer at 24-Nov-19 04:30 PM
Eric Z that's wise counsel you have offered Pelosi but when emotions are what drive decisions wise counsel is often ignored. Pelosi should have followed her own counsel and not started down the impeachment path since she had no bipartisan support.
Bucky Badger vs. Goldy Gopher
Next Saturday, P.J. Fleck's 10-1 Golden Gophers face off against Paul Chryst's Wisconsin Badgers for the Big Ten West division championship. The game will be played at TCF Bank Stadium on the U of M campus. The game will be sold out, if it isn't already. Let's trot out the cliches. This is for all the marbles. It's winner-take-all. Both teams will leave it all on the field. The Gophers will be defending their division lead and Paul Bunyan's axe. This might be the first time that's ever happened in this storied rivalry's history.
On top of all that, ESPN's College Game Day will be on the U of M campus all week. Excitement will be everywhere. Beyond that, though, there will be a fight between 2 college titans. This isn't new for Wisconsin. It's definitely new for the Gophers, though. They defeated Wisconsin in Madison last year, snapping a 14-game rivalry losing streak in the process.
The Gophers bounced back from last week's loss to Iowa by defeating Northwestern 38-22 . The Gophers' stars definitely shined offensively. Tanner Morgan was a modest (for him) 15 of 23 for 211 yards, 1 interception and 4 TDs. Rashod Bateman, one of the elite wideouts in the nation, caught 3 of Morgan's TD passes:
[Video no longer available]
Morgan's other TD pass went to Tyler Johnson:
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Both these receivers high-point the ball exceptionally well. They both run precision routes, too. The Badgers' secondary will have its hands full next Saturday.
Last year, the Gophers went into Madison and won 37-15. Rest assured that the Badgers will have revenge on their minds. They'll want to return the favor in Minnesota. The kickoff will be at 2:40 pm. CT. The forecast is for 35 degrees with a chance of flurries. KSTP will cover the game. Check in with LFR all week with updates. It isn't hyperbole to say this is the biggest Gopher game in 50+ years.
Posted Sunday, November 24, 2019 5:44 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 24-Nov-19 09:42 AM
Ohio State did beat Penn State too, last weekend, but it was far from being a beat down. At some point there is a question of Big Ten championship play. It could be Gophers against Ohio State, where a win would be bigger at season's end than the Iowa loss. Axe mania for now, but in the big picture, possibility exists for a very special season ending.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 24-Nov-19 10:55 AM
It's already been a special season for P.J. Fleck's crew. I think there are at least a half-dozen players that will be top-tier draft picks, starting with Antoine Winfield Jr., Rashod Bateman, Tanner Morgan & Tyler Johnson.
The next 2 weeks could be the most fun or most heartbreaking in Gophers' history.
The Democrats' surprise
Anyone with an IQ north of 75 and a willingness to view last week's testimony honestly isn't surprised that the Democrats' impeachment hearings went terribly. Still, it isn't surprising that Democrats are surprised that the polls are tanking for them .
New public opinion polls are moving against Democrats on impeachment, as independents sour on the House inquiry and increasingly express opposition to the hearings that have consumed Washington in recent weeks. The new data comes as a surprise to Democrats, many of whom believe the roster of witnesses have offered damning testimony about President Trump's dealings with Ukraine.
This isn't surprising. Democrats have wanted to impeach President Trump so badly for so long that they'd do anything to make it happen. The past 2 weeks, the Democrats' testifiers would say something provocative in their opening statement, which was immediately leaked to CNN with the heading of "bombshell" testimony.
It didn't matter that, in each of these instances , the testifiers' provocative accusations was utterly shredded during the Republicans' cross-examinations. For instance, Mike Turner got Gordon Sondland to admit that "I was presuming" the meeting was being conditioned on the investigation. Turner said that Sondland didn't have anything on this theory, to which Sondland replied "Other than my presumption." Turner immediately replied "Which is nothing."
[Video no longer available]
Democrats have based this impeachment on a series of nothingburgers. Seriously, each of the Democrats' testifiers have gotten crushed. The apolitical people haven't had any problems identifying the Democrats' testifiers' flawed testimony. That's why the polling shows Democrats in trouble:
In October, independents supported impeachment 48 percent to 35 percent in Emerson's polling. In the new poll released this week, independents opposed it by a 49 percent to 34 percent margin . In that time, overall support for impeaching Trump swung from 48 percent in favor and 44 percent against, to 45 percent in opposition to impeachment and 43 percent in favor.
Going from a +13 to a -15 is a 28-point swing in a month. That's like falling off a cliff. This isn't just a modest drop. It's a warning sign to Democrats that the people want them to actually do things rather than insisting on impeaching a gruff but productive president. Voters have factored in President Trump's personality traits and said 'we can live with that as long as the economy keeps humming.'
Democrats bet everything on impeachment. They lied to the American people for 3+ years. When the Mueller Report went bust, Schiff's Democrats found a CIA snitch, dressed him up as a whistleblower, then insisted that President Trump had tried strong-arming the Ukrainian president into investigating the Biden family. The problem was that President Trump released the transcript of the phone call. The minute that happened, the Democrats were screwed.
People could read the 5-page transcript and judge for themselves. They didn't need to watch the Democrats' testifiers to know what happened. Try as the media might, they couldn't move the Democrats' impeachment needle. As I've said consistently, these weren't witnesses because they didn't witness anything substantive . They were testifiers. Democrats voted to investigate a rabbit hole that was empty.
Only Democrats are surprised that they found nothing.
Posted Sunday, November 24, 2019 12:41 PM
Comment 1 by J. Ewing at 24-Nov-19 03:05 PM
Part of these poll results are an indicator of just how few people are actually paying attention to politics in general and this show trail in particular. Part of it represents the outsize influence of the liberal media, and part of it is due to simple, irrational partisan bias. For those viewing it in reasonably objective terms (that is, us Republican-leaning folks) we need to adjust to the idea that there WILL be an impeachment vote in the House, and it WILL pass. How many vulnerable Democrats will Pelosi force to walk the plank is unknown but she has no choice. If they vote to impeach, Republicans will be furious with them, and many of those 39 vulnerable Democrats will lose their seats. If they do NOT impeach, both Republicans AND Democrats will be mad at them and many more will lose their seats. Desirable but unlikely.
Civic education or propaganda?
Last week, the hate crimes discussion that was cancelled 2 months ago was finally held. According to this SCTimes article , "[the] panel discussing hate crimes was held after security concerns led to a two-month delay at St. Cloud State University Wednesday at the Miller Center Auditorium." Actually, there weren't any legitimate security concerns, as I've written about here .
The myth of security concerns was likely started by the Minnesota Department of Human Rights, aka MDHR. Over 3 hours after the event had gotten cancelled, MDHR issued a statement saying "Hate is not a value in St. Cloud or in any part of our state. Our community deserves better,' says MDHR Commissioner Rebecca Lucero. 'I am heartbroken by the attempts to silence discussion on hate crimes. The goal of the forum was to discuss the community we want to create. One that is full of dignity and joy."
The event was officially announced as cancelled at 1:16 pm. The protesters didn't show up until after 2:00 pm. Further, the St. Cloud Times wrote "despite the 'public safety concern' cited by the human rights department, St. Cloud Assistant Police Chief Jeff Oxton said Wednesday the department received no reports of threats related to the event. "
The panel was originally planned to be held Sept. 18 at the St. Cloud Library, but was canceled "due to safety concerns,' according to a release from the Minnesota Department of Human Rights.
On that day, demonstrators with the Freedom Speaks Coalition protested the Council on American-Islamic Relations' involvement. On their website, the group claims that the Council on American-Islamic Relations is affiliated with terrorist organizations.
Shame on the Times for soft-pedaling that. It isn't a claim. It's a finding of fact from "the terror-finance trial against the Holy Land Foundation and its former officials."
Assistant Attorney General Ronald Weich "included trial transcripts and exhibits 'which demonstrated a relationship among CAIR, individual CAIR founders, and the Palestine Committee. Evidence was also introduced that demonstrated a relationship between the Palestine Committee and HAMAS, which was designated as a terrorist organization in 1995.'"
CAIR's reputation as a Muslim civil rights organization is tarnished:
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CAIR wasn't founded after 9/11. It was started in the 1990s. It's difficult to take CAIR seriously an organization that's promoted by propagandists like Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib.
Posted Monday, November 25, 2019 2:37 AM
No comments.
Campaign 2020 trail review
It's easy to see that the Democrats' impeachment hearings have pushed the 2020 presidential campaign into a higher gear. While I'd be wrong to call it full speed, I wouldn't be wrong in saying that it's sped up more than a notch or two. Lots of information is accumulating just begging to be deciphered.
First, there's the effect that impeachment is having on shaping the election. For that, I turn to FNC's Liz Peek, who writes "Newsflash: Rep. Adam Schiff is dithering over impeachment! On CNN's 'State of the Union' Sunday, the House Intelligence Committee chairman claimed that grounds for impeaching President Trump are 'not contested' but also said he wants to 'discuss this with my constituents and colleagues before I make a final judgment on this.'"
Whoa! That's like watching Moses part the Red Sea, then decide that 400 additional years of slavery in Egypt sounded ok. It isn't that impeachment went well for Democrats. It didn't. It's that Schiff saw things that weren't there.
The thing is that the impeachment train left the station when Pelosi announced the inquiry. It picked up steam when 232 Democrats voted for the inquiry. By now, the train that left DC is likely heading through Kentucky or parts west. The Lunatic Left demands an impeachment vote and they're gonna get it or they'll stop writing checks to the Democrats' congressional candidates.
Displeasure with the impeachment push is also showing up in the polls. While early surveys indicated widespread support for the investigation into Trump's commerce with Ukraine, the tables have turned. A recent Emerson poll shows 45 percent of voters oppose the impeachment push while 43 percent support; a month earlier 48 percent supported impeachment and 44 percent were against it. Perhaps more significant for Democrats hoping to regain the White House in 2020, support among independents has nosedived. Some 34 percent approve of the push today, down from 48 percent in October.
The Emerson poll is not an outlier. An NPR/Marist poll also shows support for impeachment dropping over the past month and, even worse for the showboating Schiff, interest in the proceedings waning. Only 30 percent of the nation saying they were following the proceedings "very closely," down from 37 percent in September. Adding insult to injury, Trump's approval rating has actually gone up, not down, over the past month. And, the stock market keeps hitting new highs.
Then there's this :
According to two new polls, Trump has now gained popularity with African-Americans - and the numbers are significant, even "bigly." Both polls - Rasmussen, which usually tilts Republican, and Emerson, which is considered even-handed - came out almost exactly the same, putting Trump's support among blacks at a surprising, almost astonishing, 34 percent. Typically, Republicans poll in single digits among blacks.
Check this out:
If President Trump gets 15%-20% of the African-American vote, Democrats would be looking at an historic bloodbath next November. It's still a long ways from Election Day but the warning signs are accumulating. The bad news for Democrats is that they aren't heading in the right direction.
Finally, the fundraising totals continue heading in the GOP's favor. With the DNC essentially bankrupt, Pelosi, Perez and Schiff shouldn't feel too confident.
Posted Monday, November 25, 2019 7:42 AM
No comments.
Is Collin Peterson in trouble?
It seems like each week brings more bad news in Collin Peterson's direction. Just minutes ago, I spotted this tweet:
Join former Congresswoman Bachmann and endorse Michelle Fischbach, a new voice for western Minnesota who will support President Trump. #MN07 https://t.co/aaEvslVJiS
- Michelle Fischbach (@FischbachMN7) November 25, 2019
There are endorsements and then there are endorsements . Michele Bachmann's endorsement in a staunchly pro-life district like MN-7 is definitely a difference-maker. Here is Michele Bachmann's endorsing statement:
Here's what Willmar Radio announced :
Former Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who has served as a member of President Trump's evangelical advisory board in the past, says she is endorsing former Lt. Governor and State Senator Michelle Fischbach, who is running for Congress in western Minnesota's 7th District. If she wins, Fischbach, of Paynesville, will become the second Republican woman from Minnesota elected to the US. House of Representatives; the first was Bachmann.
Thus far, Collin Peterson, the House Agriculture Chairman, has done nothing to get USMCA ratified in the House. Watch this pathetic string of excuses from the Democrats' 'leadership' team:
For *a year* now, @SpeakerPelosi has promised she was on a "path to yes" on USMCA.
: .we're still waiting.
Democrats' obsession with impeachment has left them with NO TIME to work on issues important to the American people.
WATCH: pic.twitter.com/nYmJT9r3LC
- Senate Republicans (@SenateGOP) November 22, 2019
Pelosi's Do-Nothing Democrats are a failure. They've focused on impeachment while ignoring USMCA. The Democrats' priorities aren't America's priorities. Democrats deserve to return to minority status in the U.S. House of Representatives. Removing Collin Peterson would be a fantastic start to accomplishing that goal.
Posted Monday, November 25, 2019 8:34 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 28-Nov-19 02:40 PM
A Michelle and a Michele, both inveterate Jesus jockeys, ... your party could do better.
.
If Tip O'Neill is right that all politics is local, then Schiff is in trouble
If Tip O'Neill is right that all politics is local, then this isn't good news for Adam Schiff. Jennifer Barbosa, Schiff's opponent, is attacking him because Schiff has paid too much attention to impeachment while ignoring the homeless crisis in his district.
Appearing on Fox & Friends, Barbosa said "Adam Schiff has been my congressman since 2012. He became my congressman through the redistricting process. Since he became my congressman he has not presented any legislation that's become law. In terms of homelessness, what he's done is he's basically rubber-stamped Maxine Waters' bill to deal with homelessness, and her bill essentially replicated the same failed policies that [L.A.] Mayor Garcetti has implemented in our city over the past few years. We know they're not working. So, what we need to do in terms of homelessness... we need to stop allocating federal funds for affordable housing which costs $500,000-700,000 per unit and really focus on mental health services for the people who are living on the street."
At this point, Schiff appears to have a difficult path to re-election. Impeachment has flopped. Schiff has been ineffective in fighting the crisis in his neighborhood. Barbosa is hitting Schiff hard on the home front, too:
When in U.S. Congress in @AdamSchiff's place, I promise to NOT commence $70 million doomed-to-fail Impeachment Hearings less than 1 year before a Presidential Election or 3 weeks before a November 21 government shutdown.
That's not what representatives are elected or paid to do. pic.twitter.com/S2hFI8XW7V
- Barbosa for Congress (@TeamJenBarbosa) November 6, 2019
"Seeing the impeachment inquiry, when he's wasting all these resources - we know that Ken Starr's impeachment cost about $70 million," she said. "That's $70 million that really could be spent on much better things in our district."
If Schiff doesn't start paying attention to things at home, he might soon be unemployed. If Schiff's actions in committee are an indicator, he's too invested in impeachment to pay attention to the crisis in his district.
Stay tuned to LFR for updates on this and other races that affect the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
Posted Monday, November 25, 2019 12:31 PM
Comment 1 by Pamela Price at 13-Dec-19 05:10 PM
I am a conservative Christian, a Trump supporter. I voted for Cruz in the primaries but gave Trump a chance and am glad I did. If people with differing views compromise with the President rather than hate and 'resist' think of so much more that could be done. If President Trump can go from calling Leader Kim Jong Un 'Rocketman' to crossing into North Korea with him, there is hope hope here in America.
