May 31, 2015
May 31 00:24 Walker's lead in Iowa grows May 31 01:05 Tom Anzelc: independent thinker? May 31 09:12 Blue collar America's crisis May 31 12:52 Sen. Paul's delusional supporters
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Walker's lead in Iowa grows
While others stumble, Gov. Scott Walker, (R-WI), keeps getting stronger in Iowa :
DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) - Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker holds a 7-point advantage among Iowan voters over the rest of the crowded Republican field in the scramble for the party's 2016 nomination for president, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll finds.
The poll, released late Saturday afternoon, shows Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rounding out the top five in the state, which, as the first-in-the-nation caucus, is a critical battleground for presidential hopefuls.
This isn't good news for Mike Huckabee or Jeb Bush. It's terrible news. Jeb isn't gaining traction in Iowa, perhaps because he isn't taking it seriously. This is terrible news for Gov. Huckabee, too. Last week, he officially jumped into the race. Predictably, he got a bump when he jumped in. In all likelihood, this is Huckabee's high water mark, or at least fairly close to it.
This isn't good news for Sen. Paul, either:
Paul and Carson were tied for second place with 10% of the vote. The Kentucky senator with a strong libertarian streak was most successful among the candidates in attracting moderate Republicans, independents who plan on attending the GOP caucuses and likely party caucus-goers under the age of 45.
The poll found, however, that Paul has seen his favorability rating drop by 9 percentage points in the state since January.
I predict that that drop is just the beginning. Coupled with Sen. Paul's statements that GOP hawks caused the rise of ISIS and his plan to force the expiration of the Patriot Act , Sen. Paul's approval rating will continue dropping. On his best days, Sen. Paul was within striking distance of being a top tier candidate. These aren't his best days. I wouldn't be surprised if Sen. Paul announced that he was getting out of the presidential race the day after the New Hampshire Primary to focus on running for re-election to the Senate.
This is terrible news for Jeb Bush:
Another telling tally: More than a third of likely Republican caucus participants indicated they'd never vote for Bush; 43 percent view him favorably while 45 percent view him unfavorably.
The Republican candidate will need to either win Iowa or be competitive in the general election. At this point, Jeb isn't even competitive. Gov. Walker isn't just competitive in Iowa, he puts Wisconsin in play, too. The thought of flipping Iowa and Wisconsin from blue to red has to be appealing to the RNC. According to this map, flipping Iowa and Wisconsin from blue to red would flip 16 electoral votes:
Republicans have some work to do to flip enough states from blue to red. Still, the Democrats are doing them a major favor by running Hillary. If they weren't running a candidate that's scandal-ridden and mistake-prone, they'd have a good chance of winning a third straight term.
Anyone that thinks Hillary will excite the base is kidding themselves. Check out this article :
A focus group of 10 Iowa Democrats this week voiced distaste over some of Hillary Clinton's tactics and ethics, but agreed she represents the Democrats' only hope of retaining the White House. Some of the five women and five men assembled at Drake University in Des Moines acknowledged concerns about issues such as Clinton's paid speeches, her Wall Street ties and the controversy over her use of private email while secretary of state. But they repeatedly praised her experience, especially on foreign policy. Despite acknowledging flaws, most said they like her on balance or don't see a viable alternative.
This video isn't good news for Hillary:
That's the equivalent of saying that they'll vote for her but they'd rather be watching paint dry or grass grow. If Republicans pick a great young candidate, their enthusiasm gap will be significant.
Posted Sunday, May 31, 2015 12:24 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 31-May-15 09:29 AM
Gary;
A couple of points on flipping that map. If I have my count right the blue states have 8 Republican governors (including Walker) which means that if you have the right candidate arguing Republican values, those states can easily flip.
Also part of those wins were based on the demographics of blacks, women, and young voters. With no Obama on the ballot the blacks aren't likely to come out in the record numbers which can help in some of those states.
Throw in proper chasing of the Hispanic and the youth vote a lot of these states can flip.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 31-May-15 12:10 PM
Some states with Republican governors will never flip. Illinois & Massachusetts are 2 of those states. Having Republican governors just means that those candidates ran great campaigns, nothing more than that.
Comment 2 by walter hanson at 02-Jun-15 01:01 PM
Gary:
While IL and MA flipping are the last of the states to flip lets start with some other states.
Iowa was carried by the previous Bush and Joni won a race based on the national issues that will be run on in 2016. Flip state #1.
Colorado was carried by the previous Bush and Senator Garner won his race based on the national issues that will be run on in 2016. Flip state #2.
Scott Walker was elected twice (so if he's the Republican nominee) and showed he was a strong leader not to mention he's taken the worst punches the democrats can throw makes Wisconsin flip state #3 if he is the nominee.
Obama's success in Virginia in both 2008 and 2012 can be tied in part because he got more blacks to vote than voted for Kerry. If the Democrat candidate loses lets say 200,000 black votes there goes Virginia.
John K. has won two races for governor. Given that Hillary has shown she might be a weak leader (at least Obama can he looked like a strong leader) Ohio can flip.
New Mexico and Nevada flipping away from Bush to Obama is probably because of the heavy courting of the Hispanic vote by Obama. Rubio just as a Presidential candidate let alone the possible VP and strong Republican governors in both these states having laid the ground can flip them to the Republicans.
Michigan has a strong Republican governor and a Republican candidate making the case hey the policies the democrats are calling for helped create all the problems Michigan has. That makes it possible flip state.
Lets not forget Florida which Democrats are counting on a massive edge from Hispanics and blacks. If the margins go down that makes life difficult for Hillary or the democrat. Throw in that Rick Scott has shown tough leadership that makes the Republican look better.
That's like nine states that can flip. The thing that I will want the Republican nominee to do and I think Walker can do it far better than the other to explain to the youth hey this is how you will be better off. Republicans have also been given an open door to get blacks to seriously think voting Republican if they make the case hey look at how the democrats have let you down.
What will hurt the democrats a lot of these votes are votes they have already put in the bank. Imagine the damage if the Republicans can pull off that robbery.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Tom Anzelc: independent thinker?
Thanks to this article , I've learned something new today. I didn't know this:
Though the makeup of the group is largely affiliated with the DFL, the Rangers don't consider their party alignment the most important aspect of their political goals. It all comes down to the Range, whether you're Democrat or Republican.
' I like to make my own decisions and exercise my own independent thinking ,' said Anzelc.
The reason I didn't know that is because Rep. Anzelc's statement isn't true. Rep. Anzelc votes like a Metrocrat about 95% of the time. The Range delegation puts up token opposition to the Metrocrats' environmental regulations, then get bought off by not fighting for the things that would actually improve Rangers' lives. That isn't independence. That's tokenism.
If the Range delegation wanted to be a potent political force, they'd join forces with Republicans each year and insist on a list of high priority items that would create mining jobs. Instead, they keep doing what the Metrocrats want them to do. That isn't fighting for improving Rangers' lives. That's putting party loyalty ahead of loyalty to their constituents.
Common goals are one of the central political strategies of the Rangers, who often face legislative opposition from other parts of the state. While the Range and the metro area are both DFL political strongholds, their lawmakers have different ideas about issues ranging from gun legislation to the environment. Meanwhile, Republicans from other parts of the state have largely had an unsympathetic voting record.
I don't doubt that Republicans haven't always voted with the Range delegation. There's no question, however, that the Metrocrats always vote against the Range delegation on mining issues. In fact, Metrocrats have bragged in fundraising emails that they stood up to the Range delegation.
The thought that Range delegation Democrats are independent is laughable from the standpoint that they haven't insisted on legislation that opens up mining. Rep. Anzelc rightly states that the Range economy is a natural resource-based economy. The Metrocrats stand vehemently opposed to natural resource-based economies. That won't change anytime soon.
Rep. Anzelc can spin it that the Range delegation is independent thinking but the truth is that they're puppets controlled by the Metrocrats.
Posted Sunday, May 31, 2015 1:05 AM
No comments.
Blue collar America's crisis
Salena Zito's column highlights blue collar America's crisis perfectly:
A tugboat pushing nine loaded coal barges chugged up the Ohio River, toward the confluence of the Allegheny and Monongahela rivers. It eventually passed the McConway & Torley steel foundry along the Allegheny, likely headed for one of the few coal-fired power plants left in America.
That was what Democrats believed in then when they cared about America. The Democratic Party was built in manufacturing cities like Pittsburgh. Isn't it symbolic that Pittsburgh's steel-producing decline coincides with the Democratic Party's decline as the party of the middle class?
Workers in the coal industry and at McConway & Torley are in the cross hairs of the progressive left. The left rails against McDonald's for not paying a salary that sustains a family of four, as it simultaneously tries to snuff out the manufacturing base that provides well-paid middle-class jobs.
McConway & Torley has been in Pittsburgh for nearly 150 years. It is one of the few places in the city where laborers can earn enough to stay out of poverty, own a home and provide security for their families' futures.
The Totalitarian Left worships at the altar of controlling people's lives. They'll do anything that forces their religion down blue collar America's throat. If you think religion isn't the right word for that situation, think again. Here's the definition of religion:
the body of persons adhering to a particular set of beliefs and practices
The Totalitarian Left worships uniformity and a one-size-fits-all worldview. Meanwhile, Americans are demanding an iPhone-iPad world. The EPA's proposed new rule to the Clean Water Act won't make America more productive. The EPA's proposed new rule will attempt to tell a free people what they can't do. That's totalitarianism by any definition. It certainly fits this definition :
the character or quality of an autocratic or authoritarian individual, group, or government
When I started paying attention to politics, liberals used the judiciary to get their way when they couldn't pass the legislation they wanted. That changed when President Reagan started appointing more Constitution-minded judges. The Totalitarian Left found that they couldn't rely on the judiciary for their victories like they had in the past.
That wasn't acceptable to the Activist Left. Their policies weren't popular, which meant they couldn't pass their extremist agenda. With more Constitution-minded judges, they weren't winning legal victories, either. Which leads us to today. The Totalitarian Left has now opted for ruling through regulators. It's really their only option at this point.
You see, on the same night that the city hosted a conference with Nordic countries about 'social sustainability' (talking to each other), 'urban fabric' (city living) and 'carbon footprint transference' (walking), the health department held a public hearing in the once working-class, now upwardly-mobile neighborhood where the foundry sits.
That hearing was about a plan to reduce the foundry's steel production by 77 percent. And that would take away the one thing everyone says they want to create through manufacturing - middle-class jobs.
The plant's opponents basically want the foundry out of Pittsburgh, a city once known for a skilled labor force that 'made stuff.'
It is an aggressive effort by GASP (Group Against Smog and Pollution), funded by the Heinz Endowments to the tune of $350,000 in 2014, the same foundation funding the city's conference with Nordic countries that local Democrat leaders hailed as the direction the region should go.
I'd love seeing a populist uprising against the Totalitarian Left. The Democratic Party of the 1950s had a strong libertarian streak to it. That Democratic Party loved building things. They, along with astute Republicans, built the interstate highway system.
Today's Democratic Party worships at the altar of light rail, Cap and Trade and partial regulatory takings. That isn't Americanism. That's warmed over Europeanism, which is an unsavory broth.
It's time for the Reagan Democrats to join the Republican Party, not because the GOP is a fantastic party without flaws, but because the Totalitarian Left isn't, shouldn't be their home. Reagan Democrats have as much in common with the Totalitarian Left as oil has with water.
Those ingredients don't fit together.
Posted Sunday, May 31, 2015 9:12 AM
No comments.
Sen. Paul's delusional supporters
After reading this article , sane people are left wondering what Sen. Paul's supporters are thinking:
The newest Iowa poll conducted by The Des Moines Register reflects a trend which has been ongoing since polling for this cycle began. Rand Paul, in second place at 10%, is well within the margin of error of the lead, currently held by Scott Walker at 17%. Ben Carson finished with 10% and both Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush earned 9%.
While it is debatable how important it may be to actually win the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus, history shows that it is imperative to finish in the top 4, as each nominee from both major parties has done so since the quadrennial tradition began in 1972. With a possible field of nearly 20 Republican candidates, a poor showing in Iowa could prove lethal to several campaigns.
With that information in mind, the fact that Senator Paul has consistently remained in double-digits since Iowa polling commenced in mid-2012 becomes all the more important and impressive. Paul enters the contest with a bit of an advantage, as his father came within 4 percentage points (or 4,000 votes) of winning the caucus in 2012. In fact, the legacy that the elder Paul left is best represented by the fact that 22 of the state's 28 delegates pledged themselves to his campaign.
Now that Sen. Paul has announced that he'll force the expiration of the Patriot Act, his days are numbered. From this day forward, his support will drop until he's left with his father's core of loyal supporters. By the time the Caucuses happen, he'll trail Walker, Rubio, Carson and, quite possibly, Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz.
The 2016 Iowa field will be unique in that it will be first in history to feature 2 different past winners (Huckabee and Rick Santorum), but Paul has shown himself to be one of the favorites to win the caucus. Other candidates' numbers have fluctuated, yet Paul has steadily maintained a solid core of voters.
First, Sen. Paul's support hasn't grown. Second, Sen. Paul's support isn't reaching into other demographics that are needed to win in Iowa. For instance, Sen. Paul doesn't have a chance of winning over evangelical Christians because of his strict libertarian views on things like legalizing marijuana and his indifference towards gay marriage. Whether you agree or disagree policy-wise, evangelical Christians won't support candidates that are indifferent on those issues.
Putting it simply, Sen. Paul's potential for winning Iowa is virtually nil.
The newest person in line in the Iowa 'stock market' of candidates has been Scott Walker, who now averages nearly 20%, but has seen his numbers begin to decline. As recently as January, Walker was polling at below 5%, showing that his reign is likely unsustainable, and could be very well a limited one.
Now that's fanciful. Wow! Scott Walker has led the RCP average of polls for nearly 4 months, usually with solid leads outside the margin of error. If that's what a "likely unsustainable" lead looks like, especially one that "could be very well a limited one", then I'm betting most candidates would settle for such an unsustainable lead.
Josh Guckert is the name of the person who wrote this article but it could've just as easily have been Baghdad Bob.
Posted Sunday, May 31, 2015 12:52 PM
No comments.
