June 9-11, 2018
Jun 09 11:12 The DFL's imminent divorce Jun 09 15:37 Pawlenty makes his case Jun 10 01:39 DFL's CD-5 endorsing convention Jun 10 10:13 Shocking polling in DFL Eighth District primary Jun 11 01:52 Dorholt's liberal ideology Jun 11 02:54 Erin Murphy's message Jun 11 15:27 Dayton's veto shuts down hotline Jun 11 16:02 Trump is visiting Duluth
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
The DFL's imminent divorce
With the DFL primaries likely to be contentious, some major rifts have gotten exposed. In his weekly commentary, Harold Hamilton noted that "the DFL is wholly funded, owned, and operated by the wealthy urban elites who hail from about three zip codes in Minneapolis and Saint Paul. These king makers are extremely liberal in their world view and thus support candidates who are extremely liberal in their world view. In short, the DFL establishment these days favors extreme liberals who hail from the urban core." (Hamilton predicts that Erin Murphy and Keith Ellison will win their primaries and be the DFL's general election candidates for governor and AG respectively.)
That necessarily means some awfully hurt feelings. As Hamilton said, "Lori Swanson specifically pointed out in her announcement that she was running for governor that she is in favor of gun rights, a hot button topic. Erin Murphy, on the other hand, is a gun grabber and has no regard for the Second Amendment, as does her running mate."
Anyone that thinks rural DFLers and metro DFLers won't duke it out over the Second Amendment is kidding themselves. This is one of the existential fights that DFL Chair Ken Martin has tried avoiding for 5+ years. Hamilton noted that "there is a growing schism between the party's urban, liberal faction and its rural 'Reagan Democrat' pragmatic faction." Here at LFR, I've been chronicling that schism for years. It's inevitable that the divorce happen.
Mitch Berg correctly notes that "It's pretty clear the DFL is sliding toward Metro-only status. If they lose CD8 and possibly CD1 this year (both are more possible than at any time in years), and with the knowledge that Colin Peterson's Potemkin seat in CD7 will never be replaced by a Democrat again when he retires), it'll really be official, even if they someday flip CD3."
Tonight on Almanac, the 3 DFL gubernatorial candidates did their best to spin the differences between rural issues and metro issues. They failed. Each played nice to a certain degree, though Erin Murphy definitely attacked Walz on the NRA. When rural voters hear that, it's inevitable that they think the DFL is the party of gun grabbers. What's clear is that these candidates either don't understand rural voters or are too busy pandering to city voters.
Murphy and Maye Quade have opposed pipelines and mining. They voted for the buffer strips, too. These positions will alienate rural voters. Amy Koch nails it during the roundtable:
[Video no longer available]
During the Roundtable, Eric Eskola mentioned the Eighth District DFL Primary. They'd run out the environmentalist in that race. Now, 2 more environmentalists have filed to run in the primary. These candidates won't win but they will keep that fight fresh through August. That isn't just a disagreement. Potentially, it might turn into a civil war.
If the DFL can't resolve these major differences, a divorce is inevitable. It's just a matter of when.
Posted Saturday, June 9, 2018 11:12 AM
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Pawlenty makes his case
Thus far, Tim Pawlenty is the only GOP gubernatorial candidate to send me information on their campaign. Jeff Johnson's campaign hasn't shown any signs of activity, either in fundraising letters, campaign updates or through social media. At this point, I'm left to question whether Jeff Johnson is going through the motions or whether he's just too broke to run a full-fledged campaign.
At any rate, Tim Pawlenty is running a complete campaign. In his latest campaign email, Pawlenty writes "The DFL candidates for governor, Tim Walz and Erin Murphy, support tax increases and turning Minnesota into a haven for illegal immigration by imposing sanctuary state laws. In fact, Tim Walz even proposed bringing terrorists being held at Guantanamo Bay to Rochester, Minnesota!" Later in the same email, Pawlenty wrote "At a time when our state government can't properly operate the renewal system for licenses; can't even properly confirm eligibility before giving out public assistance; and is even being investigated for potentially diverting child care funds to terrorists - we need our elected officials to be accountable and use common sense. With the DFL plunging into chaos, they have proven to every Minnesotan that they cannot and will not take these critical responsibilities seriously."
Gov. Dayton has been a total disaster the past 8 years. Minnesotans are taxed far too much. Far too often under Gov. Dayton's and the DFL's watch, they've ignored warning signs of theft or fraud.
It isn't improper to call the DFL the party of big broken government. They've proven that they only care about oversized appropriations and no oversight. MNLARS continues unfixed. Meanwhile, Gov. Dayton vetoed a bill that would've saved deputy registrars from financial ruin that Gov. Dayton and the DFL caused because Republicans wouldn't write Gov. Dayton a blank check for an additional $33,000,000 to supposedly finish fixing MNLARS. When the GOP insisted on strict oversight, Gov. Dayton went into another of his famous diatribes.
Do we want another inept, corrupt Democrat in the Governor's mansion? Shouldn't we want a governor who has already shown he's competent? We can't afford Erin Murphy's wildly expensive ideas
Posted Saturday, June 9, 2018 3:43 PM
Comment 1 by Rexnewman at 09-Jun-18 08:42 PM
I've been receiving multiple emails a week from Johnson, more than from Pawlenty in fact. And in terms of substance the gap is wider still.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 10-Jun-18 12:37 AM
Frankly, I've received only a couple emails from Jeff Johnson. As for the substance of the Pawlenty emails, they've been more than sufficiently detailed. Finally, the things that Pawlenty has focused on are the hottest of the issues that Gov. Dayton has screwed up -- MNLARS, the elder care abuse scandal & the child care fraud scandal.
As for social media, Jeff Johnson has been invisible. I know that he's perfectly capable of great substance. There's no disputing that. I just haven't seen it.
Finally, Jeff Johnson hasn't resisted taking cheap shots at Pawlenty. Friday night on Almanac was a perfect example. It's looked like he's flailing to get attention.
DFL's CD-5 endorsing convention
In a surprise move, the DFL has opted to hold an endorsing convention to fill the soon-to-be empty seat left by Keith Ellison's decision to run for Attorney General.
According to the DFL's official statement, "The party said in a statement that Ellison's move has 'resulted in a great deal of confusion and interest' in how the DFL will handle the primary election. The party said delegates should have a chance to endorse a candidate."
Later in the article, it said that "the candidates are state Rep. Ilhan Omar, former Minnesota House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, state Sen. Patricia Torres Ray, state Sen. Bobby Joe Champion, Frank Nelson Drake and Jamal Abdi Abdulahi."
This should get interesting. First, most of these candidates are socialists. Putting them on display will only remind Minnesotans how far left the DFL has drifted. Despite all of the names on the ballot, this is essentially a 2-person race between Ilhan Omar and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher. Based on what I've seen thus far this election season, I'd consider Omar to be the frontrunner for the endorsement. I don't know that there is a frontrunner in the primary.
One thing that's pretty apparent, though, is that Margaret Anderson-Kelliher and Ilhan Omar represent significantly different wings of the DFL. Omar stated that "I am a coalition builder and will continue Congressman Ellison's legacy of using the Minnesota Fifth District seat to fight for all of us not only in Washington but here at home."
It will be interesting to see which part of the DFL is dominant. I suspect it's the Ellison-Omar wing.
Posted Sunday, June 10, 2018 1:39 AM
Comment 1 by Chad Q at 10-Jun-18 07:07 AM
Considering that Ellison has been elected numerous times even after throwing bomb after bomb, I'd say CD-5 is going to elect Omar. Funny how a Somali who left her country because of the warlords fighting and ruining the country is more than happy to bring that mentality to the US and MN.
Comment 2 by Rex Newman at 10-Jun-18 08:05 PM
Dfl'ers who were at the Cd-5 convention when Keith nom de jour 'prevailed' over heir-apparent Mike Erlandson will want to wear flak jackets this time.
Shocking polling in DFL Eighth District primary
I'm semi-stunned with the first polling for the DFL primary in Minnesota's Eighth District. First, the polling company was "conducted by Victoria Research and Consulting for the Radinovich campaign. The firm, based in Maryland, has worked in Minnesota's Eighth District since first hired by the late Jim Oberstar in 1992." Next, "the company interviewed 400 likely DFL primary voters in the Eighth District from May 12-17. Of the five DFLers in the race, Lee had the highest name recognition at 39 percent, while Radinovich was second at 30 percent. Fewer than one-in-four likely primary voters had heard of state Rep. Jason Metsa or North Branch Mayor Kristen Hagen Kennedy ."
That few people had heard of Kristen Hagen-Kennedy isn't surprising. That few people have heard of Jason Metsa is stunning. He's a state legislator. He's been re-elected, too. That isn't the only bad news for Metsa, though. Here's more:
The survey considered the candidates support within the district's two major media markets, Duluth and the Twin Cities. Lee had a clear lead in the Duluth market, with 24 percent support, while Radinovich was second at 18 percent. Metsa finished third with 15 percent support while Kennedy had the backing of just four percent of those polled.
Radinovich holds a clear lead, however, in the southern part of the district, with 17 percent support. Kennedy was in second place at nine percent, while Lee finished third at seven percent. Metsa came in at just two percent support .
In other words, Metsa is tanking outside of his back yard.
Lee represents an interesting dilemma for the DFL. She's well-known, popular and she opposes copper-nickel mining:
[Video no longer available]
The last thing the DFL needs is for there to be a tough fight between the pro-mining people and the anti-mining activists as their 2 finalists duke it out. That's what this is shaping up to be at this point. It's impossible to forget, too, that Leah Phifer won all 10 of the ballots at the DFL CD-8 Convention, though she didn't win the endorsement. Let's remember, too, that Rebecca Otto's only win in the Precinct Caucus straw poll was in CD-8. They might've gotten rid of Phifer but they haven't gotten rid of the environmental activists.
I expect Radinovich to win the primary because there will a significant turnout for the pro-mining Swanson-Nolan gubernatorial ticket in the primary in the Eighth. That shouldn't be underestimated. However, it wouldn't be wise to predict a Radinovich victory in November if the Erin-Squared ticket wins the gubernatorial primary. An Erin-Squared victory will likely have a negative effect on turnout in the Eighth District.
Posted Sunday, June 10, 2018 10:13 AM
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Dorholt's liberal ideology
Zach Dorholt's newest political venture is running for the ISD 742 School Board . Predictably, Dorholt is bringing his failed liberal ideology with him.
One of Dorholt's "priorities" is "to revamp Apollo High School." "You hear the conversation of, 'Am I going to go to this brand new school or am I going to go to this relic from the '70s?' I don't want that to be a narrative in our community. These need to be equal schools,' he said. 'There's a lot of different ideas about how to do that and I want to make sure that conversation is constructive.'"
Actually, St. Cloud doesn't need 2 high schools, especially with grade school enrollments dropping over the next 10 years. The new Tech High School should be able to house all of the students within a decade. The last thing we need is to spend another $25,000,000-$50,000,000 on renovating Apollo.
Dorholt will have high name recognition going for him in his campaign. What he'll have going against him is his reckless spending habits, his love of tax increases and his liberal ideology of just dumping tons of money at noisemakers. People who have studied the Apollo issue and who are honest know that we don't need to renovate the building.
Dorholt and his fellow liberal won't admit it but St. Cloud isn't growing. Businesses are closing or moving. People who still live in St. Cloud are sending their kids to Sauk Rapids-Rice HS so they won't have to deal with the Tech situation.
Meanwhile, Dorholt and his progressive friends have buried their heads in the sand, pretending that the problems I just outlined don't exist. Unfortunately for taxpayers, they exist. Dorholt and the other progressives on the Board will attempt to throw more money at the problem without fixing the problem.
Posted Monday, June 11, 2018 1:52 AM
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Erin Murphy's message
During her interview with KMSP-TV, Erin Murphy did her best to explain why the DFL endorsement for governor is important. At one point, I got the sense that Rep. Murphy almost said that it's important because she's strapped for cash and needs the DFL's assistance to push her across the finish line. She stopped short of that but that's still the truth:
[Video no longer available]
According to this report , Murphy had less than $75,000 cash-on-hand as of 3/31/2018. By comparison, Tim Pawlenty has $900,000 more cash-on-hand . On the DFL side of things, Tim Walz has almost $650,000 cash-on-hand .
Let's get serious here. With the DFL's help, Erin Murphy should win the DFL Primary. The minute the primary is over, though, she's in trouble. The bad news for the DFL is that her competitors on the DFL side are in worse shape. With the DFL having been taken over by Our Revolution, Murphy is the only candidate extreme enough for that organization. Lori Swanson and Tim Walz will split the outstate vote. When they lose the primary, their voters are most likely to either not vote for Murphy or they'll switch to the GOP.
This won't be a happy reunion. This is the DFL's civil war. Republicans aren't unified but the DFL is heading for outright civil war.
Posted Monday, June 11, 2018 2:54 AM
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Dayton's veto shuts down hotline
When Gov. Dayton vetoed the omnibus spending bill, he killed funding for multiple important things. We knew that Gov. Dayton's veto killed funding for elder care protections. Thanks to this article , we now know that Gov. Dayton's veto of the omnibus spending bill is shutting down "Minnesota's cash-strapped suicide hotline." How heartless can you get?
It's time to give our governor a new nickname. I think it's time to nickname him Gov. Temper Tantrum because he's long on temper tantrums and short on solutions. He can't get out of office soon enough. Thanks to Gov. Dayton's temper tantrums, people might die. That isn't acceptable. Period.
Think about this. Thanks to Gov. Temper Tantrum's vetoes, people will lose their homes through no fault of their own. Employees have lost their jobs. Now, potentially, people in need might be deprived of a helpline. What type of heartless bastard would do that?
This is Gov. Dayton's feeble attempt to defend his vetoes:
[Video no longer available]
What a total loser. This isn't just about policy. It's about real people's lives. Apparently, Gov. Dayton's parents didn't teach him that political gamesmanship has real life consequences. It's time for him to leave. It can't come soon enough.
Posted Monday, June 11, 2018 3:27 PM
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Trump is visiting Duluth
According to this article , President Trump will make a campaign appearance in Duluth. Also, "the rally will be at the Duluth Entertainment Convention Center at 6:30 p.m." Pete Stauber plans on attending the event. Stauber is the GOP-endorsed candidate for the Eighth Congressional District. Stauber hopes to replace Rick Nolan.
It's worth noting that "Trump carried [the district] by nearly 16 percentage points in 2016." Further, "the race for the open 8th District seat is considered a tossup." Unlike the races in CD-2 and CD-3, this race is an actual toss-up. Republican Party Chair Jennifer Carnahan is getting excited :
"The importance of Minnesota this election cycle - in influencing the balance of power in Washington D.C. for the next two years and ensuring we send the President conservative reinforcements - depends on our ability to Make Minnesota Red," Carnahan said. "We look forward to the momentum and positive energy his visit will bring to Minnesota Republicans and our opportunities this election cycle."
President Trump will increase turnout in the Eighth District. His appearance might help cause voters to switch allegiances.
This shouldn't be seen in a vacuum. Remember that the DFL primaries (gubernatorial and congressional) both pit an environmentalist against a pro-mining candidate. Don't think that President Trump won't mention that in his speech.
The last time Trump was in Minnesota was right before the 2016 election. Back then, they said stopping in Minnesota and Wisconsin was "campaign malpractice." I guess the pundits were wrong that time, too.
Posted Monday, June 11, 2018 4:02 PM
Comment 1 by Gretchen Leisen at 12-Jun-18 08:47 AM
Wow! That is fantastic. Now we need to work on getting him to MN in the fall - someplace in central Minnesota - like St. Cloud, For instance. That would really pump up the excitement and help make Minnesota Red in 2018!
