August 7-8, 2017
Aug 07 08:16 The DFL's uphill fight in 2018 Aug 07 11:00 Mueller's fishing expedition Aug 07 19:16 Lynch's fake identity Aug 07 23:39 Tester is toast in 2018 Aug 08 12:31 City Council vs. the people Aug 08 14:36 The Democrats' death spiral?
Prior Months: Jan Feb ~ May Jun Jul
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
The DFL's uphill fight in 2018
In 2018, expect the DFL to experience a difficult election season. For years, the DFL, led by Gov. Dayton, has patted themselves on the back profusely for how strong the economy was and how their policies were working, etc. Those days, like Gov. Dayton's time in office, are slipping away. Last week, I cited this article as showing the DFL's economic policies aren't that great.
The article starts by saying "New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that Minnesota was one of only seven states in the country to experience a shrink in its gross domestic product (GDP)." In the next paragraph, it states "In the first quarter of fiscal year 2017, Minnesota's GDP shrank 0.3 percent. This is the seventh worst mark in the United States, ahead of only Montana, Kansas, Hawaii, Iowa, South Dakota, and Nebraska." While Minnesota's GDP shrinks, consumer confidence in President Trump's policies keeps growing .
As of July 25, 2017, consumer confidence was recorded at 121.1. It was projected to be a still-healthy 116.5.
What's worse for the DFL's election chances is that "North Dakota's GDP increased by 1.6 percent, while Wisconsin's increased by 2.1 percent in the past quarter. This was the fifth best mark of any state." Gov. Dayton has frequently talked about how much better Minnesota's economy was doing than North Dakota's or Wisconsin's.
By the time that the conventions end next spring, it's a distinct possibility that the DFL's talking point of having a stronger economy than North Dakota or Wisconsin won't be true anymore. Likewise, it's possible that Republicans will be able to say that Minnesota's economy is underperforming compared to the national economy. Consumer confidence was at 98.6 as of Oct. 25, 2016. Since then, consumer confidence has been 15-25 points higher.
Considering the DFL's difficulties in rural Minnesota, it isn't a stretch to think that the DFL and their special interest allies will sink their money into holding the governor's mansion. If the US economy is doing well and Minnesota's economy is faltering, it isn't a stretch to think that the DFL might have their worst election cycle in a generation.
Tim Walz's seat in Congress is likely to flip into the GOP column. It's difficult to picture the DFL defeating Paulsen, Emmer or Lewis in their races. If Minnesota is underperforming the US economy, it'll be virtually impossible to pin that on Republicans. That makes things plenty difficult for the DFL gubernatorial candidate, especially if their candidate is Tim Walz.
Let's be blunt about something right upfront. Tim Walz is probably the DFL's best candidate in a lackluster field of candidates. He isn't charismatic. He won't drive turnout. In 2010, Democrats were thirsty because President Obama had just led them to their holy grail of universal health care and because they'd been shut out of the governor's mansion since 1991 .
By contrast, Minnesota Republicans are hungry this cycle. They want unified Republican state government. They don't just want to hold their majority in the Minnesota House. (The Minnesota Senate isn't up for re-election.) They'd love to take over control of the congressional delegation, too.
Barry Casselman's article said that "Trump's strong showing came in the rural and blue-collar exurban areas, which responded to his antiestablishment message, and in the northeastern Range area, usually a DFL stronghold, where the vote was as much anti-Clinton as it was pro-Trump." That's actually wrong. President Trump's message was a perfect fit for the Iron Range, just like it was in other parts of blue collar America. That President Trump won the Iron Range by 12 points isn't surprising. Further, the Range was littered with Trump lawn signs all summer long.
Simply put, you can't explain that away as simply rejecting Hillary.
First-term GOP congressman Jason Lewis in the 2nd District could be vulnerable next year. He represents a swing exurban district.
Jason Lewis will win re-election. Angie Craig has announced that she wants a rematch. The NRCC put together this devastating ad late in the campaign:
After that ran morning, noon and night, Angie Craig became synonymous with 'toxic waste'. To be fair, the DCCC will dump tons of money into this race. The good news for the good guys is that she's a bad fit for the district. She's a crony capitalist who fought for special exemptions for her company while pushing unpopular policies on Minnesota.
Divided state government has produced some epic clashes, the most recent being Governor Dayton's line-item veto of the entire budget passed by the legislature for the next two years. Republicans have sued the governor over what they assert was his unconstitutional use of the veto. The state supreme court will hear arguments later this month. Voters next year will try to resolve this stalemate.
That's perplexing. The Minnesota Supreme Court will settle this soon. It won't turn out well for Gov. Dayton or the DFL.
Posted Monday, August 7, 2017 8:17 AM
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Mueller's fishing expedition
It's clear to me that Robert Mueller's 'investigation' has turned into a fishing expedition. It's clear, too, that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein won't be the most forceful person in holding Mueller accountable and keeping his investigation on the right track.
Jazz Shaw's post raised a point with me when he wrote "The actual findings of the investigation in this wild ride may not wind up being what matters. Even if no charges can be filed, this could turn out to be a complete treasure trove for Trump's opponents. And if the investigation is steered away from any non-Russia material and back to the original charter, it's a cover-up in the minds of those who want to find one. Ditto if Mueller winds up being fired. It's pretty much a win-win for the Democrats at this point, so kudos to them for setting the trap this well."
Not to be a contrarian but I read this situation the opposite way. First, it's more than possible that Director Mueller has started a backlash against his fishing expedition. While people want to know whether Russians interfered with the 2016 election, it's difficult to picture them being even slightly interested in President Trump's decade-old financial transactions.
Once Mueller drifts too far afield from his originally assigned mission, people will question whether he's trying to find the truth about Russia or whether he's just looking for another scalp. The minute the American people get a whiff that this is a fishing expedition, Mueller's support will crater.
Mueller apparently thinks that people aren't paying attention while he hires more Democratic headhunters. That's a mistake. Trump's supporters are watching very closely. If Mueller starts investigating things that weren't part of his original mission, Trump's supporters will punish Democrats who insisted on a special counsel.
Posted Monday, August 7, 2017 12:14 PM
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Lynch's fake identity
Bre Payton's Federalist article highlights that, when it came to covering the Hillary Clinton email scandal, there wasn't just a flood of fake news. There was a flood of fake justice, too.
According to Ms. Payton's reporting, "Former President Obama's attorney general, Loretta Lynch, used a fake name to cover up an investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server, indicates an admission from Lynch's attorney." Though this isn't surprising practice, this isn't the first time "the most transparent administration in history" was caught using fake email names and fake email addresses.
Ms. Payton reported "Using an email account under a fake name, Lynch (a.k.a. 'Elizabeth Carlisle') coordinated with DOJ officials to respond to queries about the secretive meeting with the former president. Lynch's attorney, Robert Raben, confirmed her use of an alias on Monday and said she used an email account under a fake identity to prevent 'inundation of mailboxes.'"
Ms. Payton continued, saying:
Using fake names was a common tactic among Obama administration officials to evade accountability. AG Eric Holder, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, and EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson all did so when serving in public offices during Obama's tenure. Lois Lerner, an IRS official who has been suspected of using the tax-collecting agency to target conservative nonprofit organizations, is also thought to have used an email address registered to a pseudonym to conduct official business.
With law enforcement officials like these, it isn't surprising to think that people would start believing there's a two-tiered legal system in this nation:
It's pretty apparent that Attorney General Lynch isn't an ethical public servant. It's pretty evident that Jim Comey isn't the upstanding man that people claimed he was. With them at the top of the federal law enforcement list during the Obama administration, it's pretty obvious that justice wasn't a high priority for the Obama administration. Protecting President Obama's political appointees and would-be political successors had a higher priority with Lynch and Comey.
Posted Monday, August 7, 2017 7:16 PM
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Tester is toast in 2018
In my opinion, it's time to add Jon Tester's name to the Democrats' 'endangered species' list of senators. This article might as well serve as Sen. Tester's political tombstone.
It reports that " A bill to permanently halt mining on federal land surrounding Montana's Paradise Valley will be introduced to the U.S. Senate this session, Sen. Jon Tester announced Tuesday. The Yellowstone Gateway Protection Act permanently withdraws federal mineral rights on 30,000 acres of public land in the Custer Gallatin National Forest adjacent to the Absaroka-Beartooth Wilderness and Yellowstone National Park, and it eliminates the ability for proposed mines to expand on to unclaimed public land."
I don't doubt that permanently cutting off mining near Yellowstone National Park sounds reasonable to some people. I'm confident, though, that lots of blue collar people screamed when they heard about this bill. It isn't that miners don't care about the environment. It's that they know that they can mine safely.
The article continues:
The Montana Department of Environment Quality recommended in December that Lucky Minerals be given an exploration license to obtain core samples from up to 46 drill holes on private land in the Absaroka Mountains in Park County, about 12 miles southeast of Emigrant. The total project disturbance area would be just less than 5 acres. The company wants to gauge the area's copper, gold, silver and molybdenum deposits.
A second company, Crevice Mining Group, is seeking permission to explore for gold on 14 acres of private property near Jardine, just north of Yellowstone Park. The Crevice project has been on hold since the DEQ issued a letter of deficiency last summer asking for more information on the request to drill.
This is what a politically endangered species looks like in Montana:
By submitting this bill, Jon Tester is telling the blue collar people of Montana that their employment isn't important to him. The implicit statement he made was that tourism was sufficient to support Montana's economy. I'm pretty certain the citizens don't agree.
Posted Monday, August 7, 2017 11:39 PM
Comment 1 by Mining Supporter at 20-Aug-17 03:41 PM
Motivations for anti mining effort in Minnesota.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/we-support-minnesota-mining/following-the-money-analyzing-who-and-what-is-opposing-polymet/1071761152959871/
City Council vs. the people
People will insist that I'm being overly dramatic about refugee resettlement. That's fine. Some members of St. Cloud's City Council have already suggested that people who've asked for information on the economic impact of the State Department's refugee resettlement program are racists. The St. Cloud Times has accused people who have simply asked for information of being bigots or Islamophobes. While visiting St. Cloud in October, 2015, Gov. Dayton told lifelong residents that they should leave Minnesota if they didn't accept Somali refugees. Our congressman, Tom Emmer, is disinterested in the subject.
According to this KNSI article , "St. Cloud residents voiced their concerns about refugee resettlement at Monday's city council meeting. A group of five people addressed the council asking for refugee population statistics and economic data, saying they haven't been able to get any answers on the issue." After they spoke, Councilman George Hontos made a "motion for a study session on refugee resettlement." Hontos' motion failed on a 4-3 vote.
The cowardly councilmembers who voted against even talking about the issue were Steve Laraway, Carol Lewis, John Libert and Jeff Goerger. City Council President Lewis attempted to defend her vote by saying that it's "a federal issue, it may have some state implications, but we really have nothing we can say."
Lewis is right in the sense that the refugee resettlement program is a federal program run through the U.S. State Department. It's also a cowardly answer in the sense that refugees use local resources like schools, hospitals and other resources. Those things are definitely within the City Council's purview.
It's important to note that this motion wasn't on a resolution condemning the program. It was a motion to spend a study session studying the impact the program has on St. Cloud's transportation system, schools and hospitals. Goerger, Laraway, Lewis and Libert were too cowardly to even agree to that.
When those councilmembers are up for re-election, I hope St. Cloud residents remember that these councilmembers voted against transparency and accountability. In my opinion, those politicians are a disgrace. Here's the video of Gov. Dayton telling lifelong Minnesota residents they should leave:
Posted Tuesday, August 8, 2017 12:31 PM
Comment 1 by Dave Steckling at 08-Aug-17 08:38 PM
Right on Gary. Those cowards do not represent the native born masses who elected them.
I promise to campaign against each of them and I sent each an email telling them I will work
to tip their election victory boat.
The Democrats' death spiral?
First, I'll stipulate that there's no such thing as a permanent majority. Next, though, I'll state that Democrats have radicalized themselves so much that it'll take a decade (or more) to become a viable national party. Right now, they're a bicoastal minority party. That isn't just my opinion. It's 538.com's opinion , too.
In his article, David Wasserman writes "Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points - a pretty good midterm by historical standards - they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats."
Wasserman explains this phenomenon by saying "In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York, states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states, think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia, that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations.
This is a better explanation for what's happened during the weakening of the Democratic Party: the Democratic Party has spent far too much time courting environmental activists and too little time connecting with blue collar workers. Democrats focused so much time on Hispanics that they forgot that there's a ton of blue collar voters in America's heartland.
If Democrats don't get their act together, they'll quickly become the minority party for a generation. It's that simple.
Posted Tuesday, August 8, 2017 2:36 PM
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