January 28-30, 2016
Jan 28 00:02 Trump lost control; will he lose Iowa? Jan 28 16:54 The Donald J. Trump Foundation Jan 29 08:30 Trump isn't really leading. Rubio is surging, though Jan 29 09:21 Reuters debate analysis: pathetic Jan 30 10:55 Ted Cruz's spin vortex Jan 30 14:32 Rubio on homeschooling, school choice
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trump lost control; will he lose Iowa?
By throwing his latest hissy fit, Donald Trump, who had controlled the GOP presidential nomination conversation, lost control over the message to Iowa voters right when candidates are making their closing arguments. That's foolish both from a PR standpoint and from a strategic standpoint. Based on his monologue, Rush Limbaugh apparently understands Mr. Trump but he doesn't understand the typical Iowa voter. During Wednesday's show, Rush said "Everything he's doing goes against the book. Everything that any analyst or consultant or professional would tell you not to do, Donald Trump is doing it, and he's leading the pack. This creates its own set of emotions and feelings and thoughts that run from person to person. Now, the political business, if you want to look at it that way, is like any other business. It has its people who are considered the elites in it, and like any business, they hate outsiders. They don't want outsiders just storming in trying to take over, and much less succeeding at it."
Rush is right from the standpoint that the GOP consultants and elites don't want to relinquish control of the nominating process. There's no disputing that's part of the establishment's upset with Mr. Trump. What Rush apparently isn't taking into consideration is that Trump isn't beloved by the voters. The voters loved Reagan. They don't love Trump. This year, the voters are pissed at everyone and everything. They're pissed because their wages have been stagnant, their jobs aren't providing a path to financial stability and their freedom is getting crushed by an administration that puts a higher priority on regulating people than it puts on liberating them.
Donald Trump hasn't met them with a message of shrinking regulations, cutting taxes on small businesses and letting families make most decisions. He's yapped about making America great again without telling the people what that means. The closest he's come to explaining his slogan is essentially to tell people to trust him, that he's done this before. He'll do it again for the entire nation.
The other component involved in picking a president is the people want to feel comfortable with the thought of him/her in a crisis. Trump created a crisis that's mostly driven by his ego. He got full of himself and demanded that Megyn Kelly be removed from Fox's panel of moderators. Anyone who's watched Roger Ailes' leadership at Fox knows that wasn't going to happen. Trump thought he was painting Ailes into a corner. Instead, he painted himself into a no-win situation.
Immediately after confirming that he wouldn't participate in Thursday night's debate, Trump announced that he would hold a fundraiser for "veterans and wounded warriors." Then he hinted that he'd get another cable network to cover it. CNN will cover the event but the damage to Trump's campaign has already been done.
It's great that he's raising money for vets but that isn't what's important to Iowa voters. They want to take the full measure of each candidate. The long-standing joke in Iowa and New Hampshire is about 2 neighbors talking about who they like. Here's how that conversation often goes:
Fred: George, who are you supporting?
George: I don't know yet. I really like Rubio and Trump but I've only seen Trump 4 times and Rubio 5 times. Give me another week and I'll probably decide.
The latest Quinnipiac Poll shows that 39% of all likely GOP caucusgoers are either undecided or say that they might change their minds. By stomping his feet and throwing another hissy fit, Trump is telling those undecided voters that he isn't interested in their votes.
Saying that that's a YUGE strategic mistake is understatement.
Posted Thursday, January 28, 2016 12:02 AM
No comments.
The Donald J. Trump Foundation
This Federalist article raises questions about the legitimacy of Trump's fundraiser. The Federalist is reporting that the website thrown together is really an extension of the Donald J. Trump Foundation. Specifically, they're reporting that "100% of the money raised on the site goes directly to Donald Trump's personal non-profit foundation."
That's a major problem for multiple reasons. First, Trump has been saying that "100% of your donations will go directly to Veterans needs." Next and most importantly, the Federalist is reporting "Trump's non-profit donated more money to the Clinton Foundation than it did to veterans causes."
To be fair with Trump, I don't think he'd shaft veterans. That being said, I think it's entirely appropriate to question his statements. If he's saying that "100% of the proceeds" are going to veterans, then he'd better live up to that promise. Getting 80% of the proceeds isn't enough after making that promise. That means if there are administrative costs involved in getting veterans' organizations the money, Trump should eat those costs. Period.
It would be different if he hadn't made that statement. Then the regular rules of charities would apply. Trump upped the ante by making this statement. Now he's obligated to fulfill that obligation.
Finally, the fact that he's given lots of money to the Clinton Foundation is disturbing and telling. I know what he's saying now. I know that it doesn't match up with what he said earlier. That trust factor isn't there like it is with other candidates. That's the price you pay when you change positions rapidly.
Posted Thursday, January 28, 2016 4:54 PM
No comments.
Trump isn't really leading. Rubio is surging, though
The latest Monmouth University poll shows Donald Trump with a 7-point lead in Iowa. It's a lead that doesn't exist at this moment. According the poll's horserace numbers, "Donald Trump earns 30% support [with] Ted Cruz [at] 23% support when likely caucusgoers are asked who they will caucus for on February 1st." Marco Rubio finished with 16%.
The bad news for Mr. Trump's supporters is that "the current poll estimates turnout will be approximately 170,000 voters, which would far surpass the 122,000 record GOP turnout from four years ago." Yesterday, reporters on the ground in Iowa said that there hasn't been a big upswing in Republican registrations in Iowa. In fact, National Journal's Ron Fournier noted that Republican registrations are down slightly from 2012.
That's proof that the onslaught of new Trump voters hasn't materialized, at least at this point. The Trump wave will either have to happen Caucus night or it won't happen. Projecting a record turnout is one thing. It's quite another to project a turnout that would be 50% bigger than the record turnout.
Decreasing the turnout projection to 130,000 voters, which would still be a record level, puts the race in a tie at 26% for Trump and 26% for Cruz, with Rubio at 15% and Carson at 12%.
'Turnout is basically what separates Trump and Cruz right now,' said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. 'Trump's victory hinges on having a high number of self-motivated, lone wolf caucusgoers show up Monday night.'
Most of the reporters on the ground in Iowa are projecting a record turnout in the 130,000-140,000 range.
The bad news for Trump-Cruz is that last night's debate was Sen. Rubio's coming out party . Last night, Sen. Rubio showed himself to be the only 'complete package' candidate in the race on either side of the aisle. In the interest of full disclosure, I've been a Rubio guy since Scott Walker dropped out. With that on the table, let's get into why I was impressed with Sen. Rubio.
It wasn't that Sen. Rubio didn't stumble. When they got into a discussion about immigration, he took a couple of hits. It's that he focused much of his attention on his vision for the economy and foreign policy while training his attacks on Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and President Obama. Sen. Rubio's quip that Sanders "would be a good president -- of Sweden" was followed by him saying "We don't want to be Sweden. We want to be the United States." It was the best line of the night.
Posted Friday, January 29, 2016 8:30 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 30-Jan-16 05:02 PM
Interesting, "coming out party" terminology.
I'd never viewed Rubio as a debutante beauty before.
Now the image is burned into my mind, difficult to erase.
It could be the source of sour dreams, bordering on nightmares.
Scripted in advance, a dance card, each dance partner in order, and, oh, what a dress . . .
Sorry, Gary, but the term just riles me - like as if he was from the Pillsbury family, a Cargill offspring, getting well taylored Armani suits as a gift from Nassar Kazeminy, elite to elite.
Reuters debate analysis: pathetic
Reuters' debate analysis sounds either like a paid Trump ad or it was written by an alien from another solar system. Their article starts by saying "Even in boycotting a debate with his Republican rivals, front-runner Donald Trump managed to upstage the event on Thursday with a typical dramatic flourish."
My initial response is "Seriously"? Wow. It gets worse from there, with Reuters' team of reporters throwing accuracy to the wind when they wrote "Instead of attending a seventh debate, the former reality TV star held a competing event across town that he said raised $6 million for U.S. military veterans. In doing so, he cast a shadow over his rivals, who frequently tossed barbs his way."
I watched the debate. The candidates didn't frequently toss barbs his direction. There were a half dozen mentions of him. That's hardly frequent in a 2-hour debate. The accurate adjective in this instance is sparse, not frequent.
Further, Trump's absence made for the best, most substantive debate of the cycle. Sen. Cruz summed it up best when responding to Megyn Kelly's question about the "elephant that's not in the room" when he said "Let me say, I'm a maniac, and everyone on this stage is stupid, fat and ugly, and Ben, you're a terrible surgeon. Now that we've gotten the Donald Trump portion out of the way," he finished to laughter."
Otherwise, Mr. Trump was an afterthought at best. This statement is just wrong:
Senator Ted Cruz from Texas and Senator Marco Rubio from Florida, the two top challengers to Trump in Iowa, engaged in squabbles over immigration and national security and did not appear to threaten Trump's lead. He holds the edge over Cruz in polls of Iowa Republicans.
The polls actually show Trump and Cruz virtually tied. The Monmouth University poll that shows Trump with a 7-point lead is based on a turnout model that's more fantasy than scientific. Further, let's stipulate that Trump's most loyal supporters aren't going anywhere. They simply aren't. The latest Quinnipiac poll, though, shows 39% of Republican caucusgoers might still change their minds. They aren't likely to break in Trump's direction.
Reuters needs to discipline these reporters because their reporting is woefully inaccurate.
Posted Friday, January 29, 2016 9:21 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 30-Jan-16 04:55 PM
This is where it seems the Iowa voting is being discounted even before it happens. I think there is logic to such a stance, but explicit beats implicit every time.
Ted Cruz's spin vortex
In the days leading into the Iowa Caucuses, though, Sen. Cruz has taken to telling fanciful things that don't have anything to do with the truth.
In Ringsted, IA, Sen. Cruz told people "If you look, in particular, at President Obama's illegal executive amnesty, Marco Rubio's gone on Univision and said, 'No, no, no. I wouldn't rescind amnesty.' That isn't spin. That's an outright lie that Sen. Cruz should apologize for telling. Further, Sen. Cruz might be a world-class debater but that doesn't mean he doesn't need a dictionary. Sen. Cruz needs a dictionary because he apparently doesn't know (perhaps he doesn't care?) about the definition of amnesty . The definition of amnesty is a "general pardon for offenses, especially political offenses, against a government, often granted before any trial or conviction; Law. an act of forgiveness for past offenses, especially to a class of persons as a whole; or a forgetting or overlooking of any past offense."
I know Sen. Cruz enjoys employing inflammatory, misleading, rhetoric in making his case. Unfortunately, his fidelity to the truth isn't a high priority. He's got a history of insisting that he's the purest of the pure, the noblest of the noble, the man who stops one step short of being able to walk on water.
Bill O'Reilly interviewed Sen. Rubio last night. Here's what Sen. Rubio supports:
- Building the 700-mile wall on the US-Mexican border
- Implement E-Verify and build the wall before any discussion about what to do with illegal aliens already here
- Hire 20,000 new border agents
- anyone with a criminal background are deported.
Sen. Rubio hasn't denied being part of the Gang of Eight legislation. His argument has always been that Sen. Cruz has said he'd support legalization.
Sen. Cruz is likely resorting to this heated rhetoric because Sen. Rubio is gaining momentum in Iowa .
Posted Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:55 AM
No comments.
Rubio on homeschooling, school choice
David Brody just tweeted a link to this interview Marco Rubio did on the subjects of homeschooling and school choice. I wish this had come out earlier because it would've catapulted Rubio past Sen. Cruz with evangelical Christians, minorities and women. Mike Farris conducted the interview with Sen. Rubio.
The first question Mr. Harris asked about education was "What's your experience been with homeschooling families, what's your interaction, what's your view of homeschooling?" Sen. Rubio replied, saying ", we have a lot of friends that homeschool. In fact, during the campaign, there will be elements of homeschooling that we'll use. My kids' school in South Florida has a sort of homeschooling component of their curriculum, which we'll be able to use when we're on the road with our kids during the campaign."
Sen. Rubio wasn't finished there. He added "But in general, I think it's not only a valid way to teach your children, you see from the empirical evidence that homeschool children are outperforming many children attending traditional schools. I believe in parental choice - homeschooling, faith-based schools, private school of your choosing, what public school you want to go to instead of the one you're zoned for. But I view homeschooling, and especially the explosion of homeschooling in America over the last 15 years, as a great development that we've seen. And we see how well homeschoolers are performing once they're getting into college and universities across the country."
The point I think is important to make is that conservatives have to have a positive agenda that's governed by the Constitution but that also connects with voters of all stripes. Education is an issue that, if done right, would expand the conservative base. School choice and homeschooling are winning issues with women and minorities. It's important that conservatives rally to the one candidate that's run an uplifting campaign based on expanding the conservative while protecting the United States from terrorist attacks.
There's only one candidate that fits that description. His name is Marco Rubio. That's why I've called him 'the complete package conservative' in my tweets.
Posted Saturday, January 30, 2016 2:32 PM
Comment 1 by eric z at 30-Jan-16 04:52 PM
Rubio is a war monger. The best option the GOP has is Rand Paul. Then Trump. Cruz is better than Rubio because Cruz is sincere, even when wrong. Rubio seeks Adelson's backing, and will bend to the winds.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 30-Jan-16 08:08 PM
Apparently, you refuse to notice that terrorists, specifically ISIS, is waging war against us. Obama has stuck his head in the sand to that reality. Thanks to him & Hillary's State Department, 14 people from San Bernardino are dead & 22 more were severely injured.
The first responsibility a president has is to protect the people. I know the Democratic Party's foreign policy has been farmed out to CODEPINK but the rest of the nation knows we can't have another pacifist and survive.
Comment 2 by Chad Q at 31-Jan-16 09:04 AM
Gary, there are no terrorists in progressive land, only misunderstood freedom fighters. It takes days if not weeks and sometimes months for this administration to call terrorist acts what they are and in the meantime they find excuses as to why the attack happened.
Progressives believe that the first responsibility of a president is to give jobs and money to their cronies. This administration is stacked with a bunch of no nothing campaign supporters.
