April 6-8, 2016
Apr 06 05:07 Dismantling Kasich's electability argument Apr 06 05:50 Outscooping the Times...again Apr 06 07:18 Trump's infighting dilemma? Apr 07 00:15 Trump: Cruz is the establishment Apr 07 07:45 Chamber isn't GOP's friend Apr 07 08:54 Cruz's campaign vs. Trump's campaign Apr 08 04:39 Trump's nightmare continues Apr 08 10:11 Mills vs. Nolan, the rematch
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dismantling Kasich's electability argument
According to Jonah Goldberg, John Kasich is " the thing that wouldn't leave ." Tuesday night, his campaign manager sang the same tired song that Gov. Kasich's been singing for a month -- that he's the only candidate that can defeat Hillary this fall. Coming from a candidate that's won a single primary in 32 attempts, you'd think that he'd have a better argument than that.
The fact that he doesn't indicates that his neighbors in wherever he's living include the Easter Bunny, Alice and Little Red Riding Hood.
Rather than argue against poll numbers, let's fight about something important. The reason Kasich isn't the most electable is because Republicans have repeatedly rejected him. That fact notwithstanding, the truth is that Gov. Kasich put everything into winning New Hampshire. Though he got beat there, he proclaimed "Tonight, the light overcame the darkness." Right. Why didn't I notice that?
Gov. Kasich won his home state primary to break his losing streak. Later that night, he started the losing streak he's currently on. The first thing competitive candidates learn is that you can't win if you don't have your base locked down. Stating that Gov. Kasich doesn't have his base locked down is understatement.
By comparison, I wrote this article to highlight all the different demographic groups that Sen. Cruz won Tuesday night. What we've found out is that Sen. Cruz pretty much won every demographic group:
Senator Ted Cruz won the Wisconsin Republican primary with support from voters across income and education levels. Mr. Cruz even won among voters without high school diplomas, and ran even with Donald J. Trump among those with family incomes below $50,000 per year, typical strongholds for Mr. Trump, according to exit polls by Edison Research.
Mr. Trump carried voters who said they wanted the next president to come from outside the political establishment. But Mr. Cruz pulled ahead among those who feel betrayed by Republican Party politicians, a group that has often broken in Mr. Trump's favor. Mr. Cruz outpaced Mr. Trump by double digits among evangelicals, and he took more than three-fifths of very conservative voters, two of his most stalwart demographics.
The truth is that Kasich doesn't have a path to the nomination. The longer he sticks around, the narrower the path to being someone's running mate becomes.
It's time The Thing That Wouldn't Leave left the stage. Finally, it's worth highlighting the fact that the trio of GOP candidates got 1,064,176 votes, which is 71,291 votes more than the Democrats won.
Posted Wednesday, April 6, 2016 5:07 AM
Comment 1 by Chad Q at 06-Apr-16 07:25 AM
I agree 100% that he should get out of the race. Not sure why he's in unless he feels like he'd be the nominee if there is a brokered convention since he hung in as the loser the longest. Maybe it's a promise from the GOP "establishment" of good things to come in the future if he hangs in there. Whatever the reason, it is not a good enough one to stay in the race.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 06-Apr-16 12:44 PM
The scuttlebutt is that he's sticking around to be someone's running mate.
Comment 2 by JerryE9 at 06-Apr-16 09:36 AM
I wonder how many Democrats crossed over and voted for Trump?
Response 2.1 by Gary Gross at 06-Apr-16 12:43 PM
Very few because they had a competitive race on their side.
Outscooping the Times...again
Mitch LeClair's article about Barbara Carson's motion urging the IFO to push for SCSU President Earl Potter's termination. According to the article, "As of Tuesday evening, Potter had not seen the resolution, and it was not available for public review due to IFO office staffing circumstances."
In the spirit of maintaining a well-informed citizenry, I've got Dr. Carson's resolution. It reads "IFO pushes to have SCSU President Potter removed from office because of the effect his ineptitude has on all MnSCU universities."
It isn't a secret that President Potter hasn't managed SCSU's finances properly. The fact that the motion passed with overwhelming support indicates that this isn't news to most IFO delegates. Throughout the years, LFR has listed a lengthy list of questionable financial decisions made by President Potter. Many of his decisions have been ridiculous.
The truth is that LFR has scooped the Times fairly frequently, partly because I've got good contacts, partly because the Times spent more time being President Potter's stenographer than it spent reporting on the University.
To be fair, the Times is improving. A couple years ago, LeClair's article wouldn't have gotten published. At this rate, they might catch up with LFR by the time our 45th president leaves office, though I'm taking a 'I'll believe it when I see it' attitude on that.
Posted Wednesday, April 6, 2016 5:50 AM
No comments.
Trump's infighting dilemma?
It's said that winning helps cover lots of complaints, mostly because everybody loves being part of a winner. After saying that America doesn't win anymore, Donald Trump once famously said that America would return to its winning ways with him as president. Trump even said that, under his leadership, we'd win so much that we'd get tired of winning.
Apparently, Trump's staff didn't get the memo . According to NBC's Katy Tur, "Donald Trump's campaign is facing new internal discord over who is advising the candidate and whether his current team must expand if he is to make good on his quest for his party's presidential nomination, sources within the team told NBC News." That's what happens when the winning stops.
When the boss isn't happy, ain't nobody happy. Right now, the boss ain't happy. He's gotten out-organized and out-hustled on delegate selection. He's gotten pounded by the media for some of the childish things he's said. With the boss being an egomaniac who's making foolish mistakes, it isn't surprising that his advisors are walking on eggshells. Would you want to approach Trump and tell him he needs a significant image remodeling job?
Rep. Sean Duffy appeared this morning on Fox & Friends. One thing he said that he's absolutely right about is that Trump has to stop attacking women, starting with Megyn Kelly. Here's the video:
Rep. Duffy gave Trump this advice:
If you've got a popular governor and his reforms are popular, don't hit him! That's stupid. We love Scott Walker and we love Scott Walker's reforms. I think that was probably the biggest point here in Wisconsin.
The other bit of advice from Rep. Duffy is particularly important:
Going forward, Mr. Trump needs to expand his base. You can't exclude women. Stop hitting Megyn Kelly. Stop attacking the female population. You have to get more than 35% of the female vote and you have to broaden your base outside of those who make less than $50,000 a year.
Good luck with those improvements. Trump's as likely to stop criticizing Megyn Kelly as Hillary Clinton is likely to walk into FBI headquarters and sign a confession that she sent classified emails through her private email server.
Posted Wednesday, April 6, 2016 7:18 AM
Comment 1 by Gretchen Leisen at 06-Apr-16 01:09 PM
Rep. Sean Duffy is absolutely correct. Donald Trump for all his bragging is not the brightest bulb on the campaign trail. It is obvious he has no concept of what Scott Walker accomplished in Wisconsin and how hard Republicans rallied to back him during the recall election.
As for Megyn Kelly, Trump's attitude is sophomoric. A simple question about how he/Trump would handle running against a female candidate/Clinton when he has made so many disparaging comments about women - was right on topic and it hit a sore spot in Donald's psyche. So, Donald, instead of defusing the question, lambasted Megyn and continues to do so and thus, supports the value of Megyn's original question!
Trump: Cruz is the establishment
Ever since the networks called the Wisconsin GOP Primary for Ted Cruz, Trump's campaign has been spinning the victory as proof that Sen. Cruz is part of the GOP establishment. I wrote here about the Trump campaign's statement. The statement said "Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again. Lyin' Ted Cruz had the Governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him. Not only was he propelled by the anti-Trump Super PAC's spending countless millions of dollars on false advertising against Mr. Trump, but he was coordinating with his own Super PAC's (which is illegal) who totally control him.
"Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet - he is a Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination away from Mr. Trump. We have total confidence that Mr. Trump will go on to win in New York, where he holds a substantial lead in all the polls, and beyond."
The anti-Trump super PACs oppose Trump because he's a policy lightweight, he isn't a man of integrity, his campaign organization is nonexistent and because he'd get slaughtered by Hillary Clinton.
You can't win electoral votes when you haven't topped 50% in any state thus far. In fact, Trump's best finish was 45% in Florida and Nevada. That won't get it done. There's no proof that Trump is capable of expanding his base of support. There is proof that Trump can't expand beyond his fever-swamp base. It's called the #NeverTrump movement. It's called the Stop Trump movement, too.
Wednesday night, Dave Wohl, one of Trump's amateur spokesters, insisted that the only reason why the GOP Establishment was supporting him was because Sen. Cruz, in Wohl's words, was "malleable." That's interesting, considering the fact that Jimmy Carter once said that the GOP Establishment preferred Trump over Cruz because the Establishment thought Trump was malleable.
Back in February, Trump spent a week accusing Sen. Cruz of being "a nasty guy that nobody liked." That's quite the transformation. In 2 months, Sen. Cruz has gone from being a nasty guy that nobody likes to being the Establishment's "Trojan horse" because he's "malleable."
The Trump campaign's storyline is as erratic as The Donald's mood swings. That's saying something, isn't it?
Posted Thursday, April 7, 2016 12:15 AM
No comments.
Chamber isn't GOP's friend
Contrary to statements in this article , the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce isn't the consistent friend of the GOP. David Montgomery wrote "the GOP's traditional allies in the business community are joining DFLers in the push to include transit in a transportation funding package." The Minnesota Chamber is, at best, an on-again, off-again ally to the GOP.
Let's check out the Chamber's history. In past years, they've pushed for lots of bonding projects like civic centers and downtown renovations. That's proof that they aren't limited government conservatives. That isn't surprising.
In 2008, the Chamber provided the DFL with the political cover they needed to raise Minnesota's gas tax. That transportation bill also included lots of fees that went towards increasing transit funding. Eight years later, the Chamber is pushing another round of middle class tax increases to pay for transit projects. Apparently, the other fee increases didn't work. (At the time the 2008 tax increase plan passed, I predicted that they'd be back sooner rather than later for more tax and fee increases. I was right. Hint: it didn't require Nostradamus to get that prediction right.)
House Speaker Kurt Daudt routinely expresses a similar sentiment: that the Legislature should focus on new road and bridge spending and not on buses and trains.
Speaker Daudt is right. Minnesotans can't afford another DFL middle class tax increase. Taxpayers aren't ATMs. It's time to start prioritizing rather than putting together oversized wish lists that can only be funded with major tax and fee increases.
When Gov. Dayton pushed B2B tax increases, the Chamber fought him on it because it was their ox getting gored. Now that the tax increase is hitting someone else, they're pushing for it. Apparently, the Chamber is ok with tax increases ... as long it doesn't hit them.
Posted Thursday, April 7, 2016 7:45 AM
Comment 1 by Chad Q at 08-Apr-16 07:02 AM
You're right, the Chamber only cares about taxes that affect them. Case in point is the other day when Cam Winton was in front of the senate testifying about how the 12 week paid leave would hurt businesses.
I will disagree with Speaker Daudt on transit spending for buses. If they are going to spend money on transit, it should ONLY be on buses as they are the most cost effective transit option this state has and needs for the population density.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 08-Apr-16 09:02 AM
When Transportation Forward talks transit, they're talking light rail projects. As for buses and commuter rail, you're right. They are cost-effective.
Cruz's campaign vs. Trump's campaign
According to George Will's latest column , saying that Ted Cruz's campaign crew is incredible is understatement. Brother Will knows whereof he speaks. He's spent time watching the Cruz machine operate. That's why he wrote "Trump is a world-class complainer (he's never being treated 'fairly') but a bush-league preparer. A nomination contest poses policy and process tests, and he is flunking both."
Trump is the world's greatest [fill-in-the-blank] except when it's put to the test. Then it's frequently revealed that he isn't the world's greatest [fill-in-the-blank]. Put a different way, Trump is a legend in his own mind. Actual results may vary.
When Will visited Sen. Cruz's campaign HQ, he met Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe. In showing Will around the shop, Roe noted "the analytics people here knew how many undecided voters were choosing between Cruz and Trump (32,000) and how many between Cruz and John Kasich (72,000), and where they lived."
Something that's indisputable is that Cruz has built a state-of-the-art GOTV operation. It's state-of-the-art because it operates with militaristic efficiency. Trump hired Paul Manafort "to lead his delegate-corralling efforts." Manafort is, by all accounts, a topnotch operative. That's the upside. The bad news is that he's starting from scratch at a time when Cruz's machine has been refining their methods and working together for months. Having the ability to differentiate between voters who are picking between Cruz and Kasich vs. which voters are picking between Cruz and Trump is refined. Having their addresses is super-refined. That's why Will said this:
If Trump comes to Cleveland, say, 38 delegates short of 1,237, he'll lose. Cruz probably will be proportionally closer to Trump than Lincoln (102 delegates) was to William Seward (173.5) who was 60 delegates short of victory on the first of three ballots at the 1860 convention.
That's why I don't buy into the notion that Trump is going to clean Cruz's clock in the next few states. I'll quickly admit that Trump will win many of these primaries.
That isn't what's important. At this stage, piling up delegates is what's important. I agree with RedState that Trump's lead in New York isn't as daunting as it's been reported:
It would be possible for Trump to win a clear majority of the vote in Pennsylvania and only get 17 delegates. This is not merely theoretical. Given the abject incompetence of the Trump campaign the overwhelming odds are that no matter what they win at the ballot box in terms of popular vote will not be converted into voting delegates.
The next big goal for Trump fans is New York and its 95 delegates. This is Donald Trump's home state and no one who has lost their home state in a primary stays in the race for long. But New York is not the given that Trump fans seem to think it is and it certainly is not the Holy Grail that puts Trump back in the driver's seat heading toward the nomination.
Then there's this:
New York is a closed primary state and the deadline for registering or changing parties passed on March 25. The unstoppable Trump Train of late March suddenly looks rather decrepit but those Trump supporters who are either not registered to vote or not registered as Republicans - an issue in a state with roughly a half dozen parties on the ballot - couldn't know that. And because they didn't register as Republicans, they will not be a factor at the polling booth.
It's a safe bet that the Cruz campaign will persuade most of the unbound delegates to support Cruz.
It isn't a stretch to say that this fight really comes down to Trump's cult of personality campaign vs. Cruz's machine. That isn't a fair fight.
Posted Thursday, April 7, 2016 8:54 AM
No comments.
Trump's nightmare continues
I wrote this article to highlight how untalented Donald Trump's spokespeople are. The article also highlighted how dishonest Trump's allies are. As deceptive as Barry Bennett, Katrina Pierson, David Wohl and Ed Brookover are, though, they're amateurs compared with Roger Stone.
If you've been hiding under a rock, Stone is Trump's thug. He's Trump's chief intimidator. (I initially wrote about Stone's thuggishness in this article .)
Apparently, Stone realizes that he's in big trouble if something happens to the delegates for the Republican National Convention. Appearing on Stefan Molyneux's program, Stone issued a threat, saying " I have warned the public, I have warned Trump supporters, of what I believe is 'The Big Steal'. One of two things will happen here, Stefan. Either Trump will have 1,237 votes, in which case the Party will try to throw out some of those delegates in a naked attempt to steal this from Donald Trump or he will be just short of 1,237, in which case many of his own delegates, or I should say people in his delegates' seats, will abandon him on the second ballot. So the fix is in."
That's definitely intended to tell Trump's supporters that the Republican National Committee, aka the RNC, working in concert with the "GOP Establishment," will attempt to "steal" Trump's nomination away from him. Then Stone added this:
Join us in the Forest City. We're going to have protests, demonstrations. We will disclose the hotels and the room numbers of those delegates who are directly involved in the steal . If you're from Pennsylvania, we'll tell you who the culprits are. We urge you to visit their hotel and find them.
It's pretty apparent that Stone wrote this article to insist that his statements weren't advocating violence. In fact, he's blaming CNN for deceptively editing out something exculpatory. I'd love hearing the podcast for Mr. Molyneux's show that day. I want to know whether that would exonerate Stone or whether it would show that he's trying to weasel out of threatening delegates. I'm betting it's the latter.
Less than a month ago, Mr. Trump was talking trash, saying that he'd pay the legal fees for his supporters who laid a beating on protesters at his events. It was clear that Trump was a full-fledged thug, albeit a rich thug. Stone was his consigliere for the better part of twenty years. I won't buy it that Trump kept that parasite around for his charming personality. Trump kept him on Trump's payroll to have him do his dirty work.
Trump's schtick is getting old. Trump's thuggishness is preventing him from closing the deal with the American people. That's why Trump won't be the GOP presidential nominee.
Posted Friday, April 8, 2016 4:39 AM
No comments.
Mills vs. Nolan, the rematch
Based on what his campaign manager just said , Rick Nolan isn't living in northern Minnesota. Based on Joe Radinovich's statement, it's more likely that Nolan's current neighbors include the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy and some unicorns.
After the Tarrance Group released its first poll of the campaign, Radinovich said "The real takeaway from this poll and others we've seen is that, despite seemingly favorable conditions for Republicans, Congressman Nolan's integrity, effectiveness and strong leadership is recognized by voters across the district and is reflected in his strong performance in this and other polls."
Radinovich's statements show that the Nolan campaign will rely on class warfare to win again. Radinovich also said "This poll also seems to show that voters remember Stewart Mills III and his support for tax breaks for the wealthy, while also believing that Congress should be 'putting all options on the table' when it comes to Social Security. Even in favorable conditions for Republicans, Mills can't buy a lead."
The poll that Radinovich is talking about shows some interesting things. For starters, it "has Nolan with 49 percent and Mills at 46 percent." It also shows this:
The survey also showed 8th District voters supporting both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz over Hillary Clinton - Cruz by 49 percent to 40 percent and Trump 43 percent to 40 percent.
This isn't good news for Hillary but it isn't surprising either. This isn't a tangential issue, either. If Cruz is the nominee and he's able to maintain this lead, Nolan would have to run 10 points better than Hillary. That's a daunting task for any candidate.
Put differently, if the presidential race tightens, which is inevitable, to a 5-point Cruz lead, Nolan would have to run 5 points better than Hillary. Another way of looking at it is to say Hillary will be a drag on Nolan.
Posted Friday, April 8, 2016 10:11 AM
Comment 1 by Chad Q at 09-Apr-16 03:22 PM
Time for the Iron Rangers to put their money where their mouths are at and vote out retread Rick and vote in Mills, someone who wants to bring jobs to the area instead of government dependency checks.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 10-Apr-16 01:48 AM
Chad, you've probably figured it out that I'm an optimist. Still, this is a perfect year for Stewart. Hillary will be a drag against Democrats. That's the only statewide race, too. No senator or gubernatorial races either. Plus, this year, there's been much more animosity from Range politicians against the DFL than in other years. Here's hoping everything fits together for Stewart.
