September 17-21, 2010
Sep 17 05:40 Kasich Pulling Away Sep 17 09:16 Tarryl Trails Sep 17 18:03 Coons Is Unbeatable? I Think Not Sep 17 20:46 Demmer Now Young Gun Sep 18 08:04 Feingold In Trouble Sep 19 15:01 Turning Conventional Wisdom On Its Ear Sep 21 08:58 Governmentcentric vs. Peoplecentric Sep 21 05:14 Tarryl's Arguments Aren't Gaining Traction Sep 21 17:42 Dayton's Hodgepodge Budget Coming Together?
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009
Kasich Pulling Away
This past Tuesday, I participated in a blogger conference call with Ed Goeas, John Kasich's pollster. What he said during the call has been reinforced by this Quinnippiac poll :
Republican challenger John Kasich has a 54-37 percent lead over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in the race to be Ohio's next chief state executive, with much of his lead due to overwhelming support among independent voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today.John Kasich is running a great campaign. The great news for Ohio conservatives is that Kasich isn't just running to win. He's running to help down-ticket conservatives win, too.
Kasich, a former congressman and Fox News host, holds even larger leads over Gov. Strickland when voters are asked which candidate would be better rebuilding the state's ailing economy and handling the state budget, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first general election measure of likely voters in Ohio for this election cycle can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
Kasich leads among men 60-31 percent and gets 47 percent of women voters to Strickland's 45 percent. Kasich leads among Republicans 91-4 percent and 55-32 percent among independent voters. Strickland leads 84-8 percent among Democrats.
I wrote way back when that Ohio and Pennsylvania would be great indicators as to how well Republicans would do in retaking the House. Based on what I'm seeing, I'd say it's going to be a great year for Republicans. In fact, I'm predicting that we'll have a great idea on how strong a night Republicans will have based on Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Michigan.
Four years ago, pundits said that Democrats had recruited great gubernatorial and congressional candidates. I didn't buy it then. I'm being vindicated now. I'm a partisan but I can tell the difference between a candidate who can defend his/her positions and one that's inept at it. The Democrats' candidates weren't particularly skillful at defending their positions.
Ted Strickland wasn't a great candidate. He simply ran in a great Democratic year with a resume that had the right boxes checked off. It wasn't that he was presidential timbre. It's that he was competent enough. Had he run against John Kasich then, I'm betting that he would've lost by 6-8 points.
Whichever way you look at it, John Kasich's main goal now should be to help restock the Ohio legislature with a great conservative nucleus for years to come. I'm confident that's precisely what he'll do.
With Rob Portman running to replace GOP squishie George Voinovich in the U.S. Senate and with great candidates up and down the ticket, this figures to be a great year for the Ohio Republican Party.
Finally, President Obama should start writing Ohio off for 2012. He won Ohio in 2008 but he won't repeat in 2012. When Ohioans compare Kasich's results with Obama's results and Kasich's policies with Obama's policies, it won't take much time for them to reject President Obama in 2012.
Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 5:40 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 17-Sep-10 02:39 PM
Gary:
Here's another example of a dumb Ohio candidate from 2006. Brown the senator they elected during the health care debate had the nerve to say that a Harry Porter book was longer and more complicated than the health care bill.
The longest Harry Potter book isn't 800 pages unlike the 2000 plus health care bill and has a plot line you can follow. You'll have no idea what is happening in health care because of that bill.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by Chuck at 17-Sep-10 07:55 PM
Great piece Gary. Kasich is the real deal, always liked him. As you point out, an excellent candidate as well. Not just good message and ideals but tactics as well. I agree with the Ohio and PA test for NOvember as well.
Tarryl Trails
According to the latest KSTP-SurveyUSA poll , time is running out on Tarryl Clark's attempt to unseat Michele Bachmann:
In an election for United States Representative from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District today, 09/16/10, incumbent Republican Michele Bachman is elected to a 3rd term, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis-St. Paul.Little has changed since the last poll:
Today, it's Bachman 49%, DFL State Senator Tarryl Clark 40%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, little has changed: each candidate is up 1 point.Two months ago, the Sorosphere highlighted the fact that Michele wasn't above 50 percent. At that time, I said that it wasn't that much under 50 percent and that that poll wasn't that good of news for Tarryl.
I said at that time that Michele's lead was bigger than the numbers of undecideds. In fact, just like this poll, Michele's lead was almost the size of the undecideds plus the Independence Party candidate.
Under the surface, there is offsetting movement: Clark has reduced slightly Bachman's advantage among men and among Independents , and has gained ground among voters over age 50; Bachman, meantime, is now even with Clark among women and has increased her advantage among middle-aged voters .If Tarryl can't attract the support of a supermajority of women, she's sunk.
This race has played out pretty much like I've expected it to. I wrote in March that Tarryl faced an uphill fight . In July, I said that the numbers from that poll weren't likely to change much because Michele's support wasn't soft. I see no reason to think that they'll change much in the last month and a half.
Let's remember that Michele hasn't hardly tapped her substantial warchest and that MN-6 isn't a particularly expensive media market. All of Tarryl's attack ads won't really change people's opinion of Michele because she's a known commodity within the district.
Meanwhile, I suspect that people are finding out things about Tarryl that they didn't know before. Tarryl's been cagey in crafting the image of a centrist while voting with uberliberal John Marty 90+ percent of the time, if not higher. Now people are hearing about her voting record of outrageous spending and tax increases.
Tarryl's been fighting uphill from the start. Tarryl's climb won't get any easier between now and Election Day.
Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 9:16 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 17-Sep-10 01:58 PM
Gary:
Very important Michelle went on the offense weeks ago and to the best of my knowledge Clark hasn't responded. That shows a sign of Clark's weak campaign.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by eric z at 17-Sep-10 04:16 PM
I am afraid you could be correct.
Once Bachmann shifts from negative ads to saying something she feels is positive about herself, it might only lengthen the lead polls imply.
The hope is Baachmann cannot avoid doing something stupid, as against Tinklenberg, where he got bundles of money at the last minute where he did not know what to do with cash levels he'd not seen before.
Bachmann-&-Emmer is such a frightening contemplation. Similar to a permanent Barnum-&-Baily, never leaving town but the popcorn getting stale.
Governmentcentric vs. Peoplecentric
Over the weekend, I DVRed the gubernatorial debate at the Pantages. Several points became crystal clear.
The first thing that became apparent is that Tom Emmer's budget targets are the only plan that balances the budget. Sen. Dayton's plan and Mr. Horner's plans aren't serious budget outlines. Sen. Dayton certainly wasn't able to answer Tom Emmer's question on where they'd cut spending now that his plan still had a major deficit according to the Minnesota Department of Revenue.
Had his plan been scored by the Department of Revenue, Horner's budget outline would've been exposed as not coming close to balancing the budget, either.
The other thing that's apparent is that Sen. Dayton's and Mr. Horner's budgets are governmentcentric, focusing far more on feeding the government beast than on helping the private sector prosper.
At a time when the private sector is struggling, only one candidate is focused on creating opportunities for Minnesota's jobs creators. That candidate is Tom Emmer.
The 'highlight' of the debate was the sparring between Sen. Dayton and Mr. Horner on whose tax increases were better for Minnesota. (Neither is.) Their back-and-forth was the only sign of life from Sen. Dayton the entire night.
It's telling that the only thing that got Sen. Dayton animated was raising taxes. Otherwise, he came across as disinterested and not particularly convincing as a leader.
NOTEWORTHY: This MPR article says that Sen. Dayton will release more budget details:
Democrat Mark Dayton's campaign spokeswoman says the campaign will release an updated budget plan tomorrow morning. The campaign has been crunching the numbers after the MN Department of Revenue released an analysis that Dayton's proposed income tax hike on Minnesota's top earners wouldn't generate the money he predicted.It'll be interesting to see what cuts and what other tax increases will be proposed. I wrote last week that Sen. Dayton couldn't answer questions after his plan was exposed :
Katharine Tinucci, a Dayton spokesperson, said the analysis showed "that more work is needed to identify additional sources of revenues ". The analysis, she added, "shows us what we already know: there is no single solution to raising the revenues needed to make Minnesota's taxes fair and to fund essential services."It's never a good sign when a candidate's spokesperson says that her candidate is trying to "identify additional sources of revenues." Sen. Dayton doesn't have alot of options if he plans on keeping his promises. He's said that he won't make Minnesota the highest tax rate in the nation and he's said he wants to make the tax more progressive. The only way to accomplish those goals while balancing the budget is to raise taxes on the middle class.
That's without factoring in Sen. Dayton's promise to increase education funding "without exeption, without excuses."
Dayton's budget does nothing to create jobs either. Horner's isn't much better. Rep. Emmer's plan is chock full of great proposals to help Minnesota's job creators create jobs.
Foremost among then is streamlining the permitting process. That alone would make Minnesota more business friendly. Cutting taxes is another step in the right direction. Finally, making government work for the people instead of vice versa will make Minnesota more business friendly.
When you put everything together, it's apparent that Tom Emmer's policies are the only policies that are peoplecentric, not governmentcentric.
Posted Tuesday, September 21, 2010 8:58 AM
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Coons Is Unbeatable? I Think Not
For the pundits that say Christine O'Donnell can't win obviously haven't done their homework. They definitely haven't read this :
By his own standard, Coons' reckless spending as County Executive led New Castle County from being "fundamentally sound" to the verge of bankruptcy in just four years, causing him to admit that the county was "18 months from being out of money" and "unable to operate."At a time when the entire nation is craving fiscal responsibility, Coons is simply the wrong man at the wrong time running against a candidate whose policies are an ideal fit for the situation.
As New Castle County's spending skyrocketed by 10 percent under Coons' leadership, he shifted the burden for his irresponsibility to taxpayers with three massive property tax hikes of 5 percent, 17.5 percent and 25 percent respectively. In 2008, Fitch Ratings downgraded the county's "rating outlook" from stable to negative because the county's cash balances were decreasing under Coons' reckless stewardship.
There's abundant evidence that Coons spent his county into oblivion, which caused their bond ratings to plummet and their property taxes to skyrocket. (I'm reminded of Al Gore's standard 1992 stump speech in which he complained that "Everything's that's supposed to be up is down and everything that's supposed to be down is up.")
There's no arguing that Delaware is left-leaning. That doesn't mean that they're psychotic.
The reality is that Coons is further to the left than the punditocracy thinks O'Donnell is right. He's admitted to being called a "bearded Marxist." I'm betting that once O'Donnell starts highlighting Coons' radical policies and his Marxist tendencies with the money she raised online, Coons' approval rating will plummet.
A month from now, this race will essentially be a dead heat. I won't predict an O'Donnell victory but I'd rate her as having no worse than a 50-50 shot at winning. People simply haven't calculated how unpopular Obama's policies are and the impact they'll have this November.
UPDATE: I was just watching John King's show on CNN. They showed video of Chris Coons campaigning with VP Biden. In the video, Coons tried sounding like a conservative. He even mildly criticized Obamanomics.
Does that sound like a confident man who's certain he'll win?
Originally posted Friday, September 17, 2010, revised 18-Sep 12:11 AM
Comment 1 by Chuck at 17-Sep-10 07:50 PM
I'll go ahead and predict victory. You know she has a shot when someone is attacked like she is. I like the way conservatives are always "extreme" but leftist/marxist/progressives are "mainstream". I think Ann Coulter's advice always works: never apologize for your views and keep on your conservative message if you want to win. Sen Bennet from Colorado voted 100% for the Obama agenda but in his speech, he says it is a moral outrage,the spending and deficits we'll leave our kids. If a conservative message wasn't a winning one, why are all the democrats running that way now?
Demmer Now Young Gun
Congratulations to Randy Demmer for having run a great campaign thus far. Thanks to him running a great campaign, Demmer has now qualified as a Young Gun , the highest ranking a challenger can achieve.
Predictably, the Walz campaign issued a totally snotty reply to that positive news:
The Walz campaign's Communications Director Sara Severs released the following statement:
"Representative Demmer may be a "young gun," but he can't shoot straight. He's a typical, career politician whose record proves he has no new ideas, only the same failed policies of the past. There is a clear choice in this campaign and we're confident southern Minnesota voters will recognize his pitiful record for what it is."Rep. Walz campaigned as "an independent voice" for his constituents. Instead, he's voted the way Speaker Pelosi has told him to more than 90 percent of the time. That's hardly shooting straight.
Anyone voting for Cap and Tax, Obamacare and the stimulus doesn't represent MN-01's priorities. It's what's made this race competitive. It won't surprise me a bit if Demmer defeats Walz this November. In fact, I'd say there's a better than 50-50 shot that it flips.
Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 8:46 PM
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Feingold In Trouble
Russ Feingold hasn't had a good year. What's worse is that he got terrible news th;is afternoon from Scott Rasmussen's latest poll :
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Johnson picking up 51% support, while Feingold earns the vote from 44%. One percent (1%) of voters prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.That's the first time Johnson has topped the 50 percent mark. That's got to have Feingold's campaign manager worried. Still, I'd be more worried that other polling shows Sen. Feingold can't get above the 46 percent support level.
If there's anything that I've learned in years of pollwatching, it's that incumbents in a 2 person race who consistently garners 45-46 percent don't win. In fact, the late break almost always breaks against the incumbent.
The dynamics are working against Sen. Feingold this cycle. He's a progressive running in a decidedly conservative year. His votes for Obamacare and the stimulus won't play well with voters, who want fiscal conservatives running Congress.
Get out the butter because Feingold's toast.
Posted Saturday, September 18, 2010 8:04 AM
Comment 1 by James Douglass at 19-Sep-10 12:32 AM
About time for some good news after hearing Christine O'Donnell may implode in a fit stupidity after canceling appearances on Face the Nation and Fox News Sunday tomorrow after Bill Mahr released some video of her on one of his shows she appeared on. Hope she rethinks her dumb decision.
Prof. Feingold needs to go back to teaching and let some adults run the country.
Turning Conventional Wisdom On Its Ear
If there's a theme that's emerging this election cycle, it's that We The People, through the help of the TEA Party, is turning inside-the-Beltway conventional wisdom on its ear.
The conventional wisdom says that Mike Castle was the only Republican who could win Vice President Biden's U.S. Senate seat in Delaware. The last couple days, outside-the-box analysts like Dick Morris and Newt Gingrich have said that they think Christine O'Donnell can win Biden's seat.
Glenn Beck framed it perfectly when he questioned the validity of the CW that a self-described Marxist would trounce a fiscal conservative. I'll admit that O'Donnell wouldn't have a shot if the economy wasn't struggling as badly as it's struggling. It's time that we figured out that this year isn't like any other year in U.S. history.
This morning on FNS, Nina Easton pointed out that 6 weeks before the special election, Scott Brown was 25 points behind and was best known for posing nude in a magazine. He was considered an empty suit. Now he's a U.S. senator.
When Ted Kennedy's seat is won by a candidate who pledges to be the vote to kill health care, it's time to discard the old paradigms.
People have never been so starved for honesty. Never have people been this starved for accurate information about specific issues as the times we're living in. In fact, people are most starved for genuine conservatives who say what they mean and mean what they say.
They want people who campaign as conservatives to govern as conservatives. In case people haven't noticed, they're rejecting unprincipled politicians like Arlen Specter, Lindsey Graham and Charlie Crist. In general election polling, they're rejecting liberals like Barbara Boxer, Russ Feingold and Patty Murray.
At no time have I seen more people this informed and demanding that politicians listen to them. When Rick Santelli took to the floor for his now famous rant, people were appalled. That's what got them informed and engaged.
Here in Minnesota, that's led to the gubernatorial candidates to not only put together budgets but to have the Department of Revenue score their budgets. Now Sen. Dayton's budget has been exposed. Even though he's got 100 percent name recognition, his slide is starting and it's bound to get worse.
It's time for the parties to understand that we're living in a issue-driven political environment. That's because politicians aren't trusted, which led people to do their own research.
That's a huge shift. Prior to Santelli's rant, politicians didn't fear the people. They worried about gaining their votes but they didn't fear the people. After the GOP primaries, they're now paying attention. After November, we'll have their undivided attention. Those that won't listen will be swept away.
Posted Sunday, September 19, 2010 3:01 PM
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Tarryl's Arguments Aren't Gaining Traction
According to this article , Tarryl Clark's arguments aren't gaining traction. In my opinion, that's mostly because they're flimsy arguments.
One of Tarryl's arguments is that Michele isn't spending time in the district, that Tarryl's the only one spending time in the district. That argument isn't working because people see Michele in parade after parade, campaign stop after campaign stop.
HINT TO TARRYL: If you're going to argue something, make sure it's a valid argument. It's counterproductive if you're just making things up.
Another argument that's failing Tarryl is the one where she's trying to convince people that she's the fiscal conservative in the race. People know Michele's consistently voted times against big spending legislation, most recently against the stimulus, Obamacare and against Obama's budget.
Again, if you're criticizing your opponent, it helps to make a valid argument.
My favorite failing Tarryl argument is Tarryl accusing Michele of voting for tax increases because Michele voted against the stimulus. It's a flimsy argument saying that Michele voted against tax cuts (the stimulus checks weren't tax cuts didn't cut taxes.) Saying that voting against the stimulus raised taxes simply isn't credible.
Tarryl's reputation is taking a beating this election cycle. Tarryl's arguments aren't credible because she's making things up out of thin air. If you aren't credible this election, then you're heading for a beating.
You know it's over when David Schultz says that the race is over :
The race is over. About a week ago I blogged about how Democrats are wasting money on this race and need to stop pouring money into it and shift it to the Third Congressional District (Jim Meffert) or other races across the country. This poll reinforces my point.I'm getting out the butter because Tarryl's toast.
Posted Tuesday, September 21, 2010 5:14 AM
Comment 1 by Rex Newman at 22-Sep-10 12:38 AM
The cynic in me has another theory of the case. Imagine you're the DFL. Whereas: you can't beat Bachmann, certainly not this year. Whereas: you have to run somebody for appearance's sake and who knows, maybe a scandal will turn up. Whereas: you don't want to burn an up and comer. Whereas: Pogemiller was wrong about Clark, had to whisk her off the stage within weeks of appointing her Asst. Majority Leader. Whereas: she has to give up her Senate seat to run. Now, therefore be it resolved that running Clark as cannon fodder is addition by subtraction. DFL gets to name a competent Asst. Majority Leader yet blame Bachmann. Boo hoo. Wink wink.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 22-Sep-10 06:26 AM
I reject that theory because, if anything, most DFL senators think that Pogemiller was the problem. I'd be surprised if Sen. Pogemiller hasn't served his last day as Senate DFL leader.
Dayton's Hodgepodge Budget Coming Together?
Based on the sketchy details dribbling out about Sen. Dayton's budget plan, this is a picture of scatterbrain budgeting. This AP article sums it up nicely:
Democrat Mark Dayton's second stab at a plan to resolve Minnesota's projected budget deficit leaves him about $1 billion shy of a complete fix.First off, I'm skeptical of Dayton's numbers on tax revenues because he's been badly wrong before. According to Tom Scheck's tweets, Sen. Dayton is proposing a tax on credit card companies who charge more than 15 percent. That tax won't generate the revenues he's hoping for because the companies will drop credit for people who are bad credit risks.
The former U.S. senator provided new details Tuesday that calls for $3.6 billion in new state revenue, mostly in the former of increased taxes on high-end earners. His plan relies on profits from a yet-to-be-authorized state-owned casino at the Mall of America or Minneapolis-St. Paul airport.
Dayton's proposal outlines $1.2 billion in spending cuts.
This tweet says it nicely:
tomscheck On budget: Dem Mark Dayton and IP candidate Tom Horner are $1 billion short to erase deficit. GOP Tom Emmer short on specifics in his plan.Dayton's and Horner's budgets don't balance; Tom's does. Simply put, Tom took the budgeting process seriously, Dayton and Horner didn't. If given the choice, I'm betting that Minnesotans will be more worried about candidates that didn't take the process seriously than candidates who didn't publish every detail of their plan.
This Strib post says alot:
In detailing a new budget plan Tuesday morning, Dayton listed $1.2 billion in spending cuts that include some estimates for savings from reducing paperwork, limiting the upper echelons of state staff, reducing private contracting and coordinating state purchasing. According to past history, savings from those bureaucratic changes may be hard to realize.Another part of Dayton's budget that people should be skeptical of is Dayton's reliance on revenue from a yet-to-be-created racino operation.
In short, Dayton is scrambling to piecemeal a budget together instead of taking a serious approach to putting it together. In the process, he's boxed himself into a corner. He's also upset one of the DFL's biggest contributors in the process.
In his Tuesday budget plan, in addition to the $1.9 billion tax hike, Dayton would also increase taxes on homes worth more than $1 million to capture $95.4 million for the state coffers, bring in $340 million from a "crack down on tax evaders" and gather an estimated $500 million from closing a tax loophole that allows people to live outside of the state for any more than six month and pay no income taxes to Minnesota.Dayton won't realize the "$340 million from a 'crack down on tax evaders'" because snowbirds will move totally from the state. They moved away because of Minnesota's predatory taxes on retirees. If Dayton tries implementing this tax, which isn't a certainty by any stretch, he'll chase people away from Minnesota.
The Dayton budget isn't built on serious proposals. It's built on populism disguised as economic policy.
Serious economists wouldn't take Dayton's budget proposal 2.0 seriously because it's a hodgepodge effort, not a serious effort. I can't wait to see what Dayton's 3.0 budget proposal will look like.
Hopefully, it will have come together by then.
Posted Tuesday, September 21, 2010 5:42 PM
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