September 1-6, 2010
Sep 01 04:16 Media Malpractice, Part II Sep 02 02:32 Are They Really Even? Sep 02 13:22 More From Summer of Lies Sep 02 19:46 The Case For Chip Cravaack Sep 04 01:41 Administration's Newest Liar Sep 05 11:34 Laura Brod vs. Mike Hatch: A Teachable Moment Sep 06 01:15 Cutting Through the Spin Sep 06 22:48 Dayton's Jobs Plan is a Joke
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009
Media Malpractice, Part II
During her Sunday interview of Tarryl Clark, Esme Murphy served as little more than the person who directed Tarryl to the next question in Tarryl's infomercial.
Tarryl's answers to the questions were almost identical to the things said by the 3 characters in Tarryl's Jim the real voter commercial. Not once did Esme Murphy challenge Tarryl's answers, though there was more than ample opportunity for that.
For instance, when Tarryl said that she'd fought hard to keep taxes low "for 95 percent of Minnesotans", that was a direct contradiction to her voting for the huge regressive tax increases in the Transportation Bill:
I wrote in this post about all the regressive taxes Tarryl voted to increase. I'd love hearing Tarryl explain how voting for regressive tax increases while the economy is slowing is fighting for middle class families.After the TV show, I submitted a question to Esme Murphy during her online show, asking why she didn't challenge Tarryl on that. Murphy's reply was that Tarryl had certainly voted to raise taxes but that she hadn't voted for raising taxes for middle class voters.
I immediately responded, saying that I had a list of the regressive taxes that Tarryl voted for. I even offered to email them to her. Another person in the chatroom, DanH, said that I should stop talking about the user fees in the Transportation Bill.
My reply was that the language in the bill called them taxes, that Steve Murphy, the bill's author referred to them as taxes, so I was going to refer to them as taxes. I further explained that it's difficult to call a metrowide sales tax collected in Scott or Anoka counties that's used to pay for transit in Hennepin County a user fee.
I'll still argue vociferously that that fits the definition of a tax, not a user fee.
When Tarryl said she'd cut her staff & compensation, she was technically accurate. Her per diem compensation dropped from $18,000+ to $13,440. What's missing is that Tarryl twice voted to increase per diem from $66/day to $96/day.
These are things that Esme Murphy should've challenged. They directly contradicted Tarryl's answers.
I'd further argue that Tarryl saying that she cut her compensation was, to put it kindly, slightly inaccurate. Tarryl said that she was the fiscally responsible candidate. Why would a person need more than $66/day for meal money & incidentals? I'm having a difficult time justifying that. It seems like $66/day is more than ample compensation.
If journalists don't ask the right questions, how can they inform us during the campaigns? I'd argue that this interview was the worst case of media malpractice of the campaign. If journalists are going to ask the candidates questions, it's important that they have the facts down so they can challenge the answers. Otherwise, the interviews are little more than an infomercial.
Posted Wednesday, September 1, 2010 4:16 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 01-Sep-10 07:38 AM
Gary:
Keep in mind the IRS rate is something like $70 or less for most metro areas. Why did they need a rate higher than the IRS rate?
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Are They Really Even?
The latest MPR polling that shows Sen. Dayton tied with Rep. Emmer isn't good news for Sen. Dayton. Some lefty bloggers see this as proof of Sen. Dayton winning. I don't know how they reached that conclusion but it's the wrong conclusion.
One lefty post cited an oversampling of Republicans as a polling flaw. That's a legitimate point if you're basing it solely off of party registration. After filtering it through the enthusiasm gap currently favoring Republicans, that oversampling might not mean much.
Here's MNPublius' take :
First of all, it was a somewhat small sample of 750 people, with an estimated margin of error of 5.3 percentage points. That means one candidate could have as much as a 10-point lead, even if that is fairly unlikely. Even worse is the methodology: The poll was based on a "landline, random-digit dial survey."Had this been 2008 & they were polling for President Obama, I'd say that the youth votes missed would've been significant. Since this is a poll measuring the 2010 gubernatorial race featuring Sen. Dayton, I'm betting that number is tiny.
Landline? Are you kidding me? I wonder how many younger voters were missed. Not having a landline, I could never have been contacted for this poll.
I'd also argue that this shouldn't be that close of a race considering the fact that Tom Emmer's been badly outspent. The Dayton shadow campaign's negative ads aren't having the effect that the Dayton family was hoping for.
It's my opinion that Mitch Berg's exposing ABM as the Dayton shadow campaign has created a backlash against ABM & against Sen. Dayton. I'd bet that unafilliated voters especially don't like that type of dirty tricks campaigning.
When Sen. Dayton called for keeping the campaign focused on the issues, the Minnesota Republican Party highlighted the fact that the Dayton family had funded the dirty advertising campaign against Tom Emmer. I'm betting that the Dayton campaign's dirty tricks have created a backlash against Sen. Dayton.
It's also worth noting that the Emmer plan for restructuring government will come out soon. When that happens, there's bound to be alot of scrutiny of the plan. When people find out that Rep. Emmer is the only candidate that's serious about keeping government costs down, that's going to have a positive impact which will favor the Emmer campaign.
While it's true that the horserace numbers show a tie, the undelying campaign indicators favor Tom Emmer. The Dayton campaign should be worried about this poll.
Posted Thursday, September 2, 2010 2:32 AM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 02-Sep-10 08:32 AM
Gary:
Maybe you can deal with an issue that seems to come up. Not only are indepents backing Dayton better than Emmer which isn't matching with the national data a large percentage of Republicans aren't supporting Emmer.
Any idea about that. On another blog a couple of people are talking how Horner has the mo and it's his race to win.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by J. Ewing at 03-Sep-10 01:40 AM
Horner is an Independent's wet dream-- a self-styled Republican with "radical moderate" ideas (aka a liberal that talks conservative). Anybody with a lick of common sense will pick Emmer; it's just up to us to remind the 52% or so of voters lacking in that essential quality about what it really is.
Comment 3 by eric z at 03-Sep-10 01:59 PM
Walter -
I think Horner will get less than the traditional ten percent, mostly bleeding off DFL votes to the IP.
I see 8%, and the bigger part of that taken from the DFL, not traditional GOP. They will support Emmer.
Emmer will work with Cullen Sheehan to try to posture himself as a Norm Coleman clone, he now has the advisor for it, in order to make his contest close to Norm almost winning reelection.
People will be as misled as ever, and he could win it, as narrowly or narrower than Pawlenty against Hatch, it's possible.
What Emmer really needs from the right wing is to hold his feet to the fire and not let him waffle that way, but to demand he stay with the girl he went to the dance with. If they don't there are strong GOP types who might stay home. The far right needs to reclaim Emmer from pandering to the middlemen - and middlewomen.
Comment 4 by Gone 912 at 04-Sep-10 09:12 AM
I realize Tom is trying run his campaign without mudslinging and negative campaign ads, which after the 2008 elections is appreciated by the people of Minnesota, but he needs to focus on the issues and say what he is going to do about them, the people want to know. Dayton isn't as popular as the DFL and the media portrays. I think Tom could take a chance and say what he intends to do, even if some things seem less popular. I for one, would suggest State employee pay cuts to start, trim the fat.
Gone, Apple Valley, MN
Response 4.1 by Gary Gross at 04-Sep-10 11:38 AM
Tom's plan will be coming out in the next 2 weeks. I'm confident you'll really like Tom & Annette's plan.
More From Summer of Lies
This LTE is just the DFL's latest lying contribution to the 2010 campaign. It's so filled with lies that I'm questioning whether it was written by ABM's writers:
Tom Emmer has been campaigning across Minnesota for almost a year now and all I have heard from him are insults and smears.I'm not certain that there's a verifiable fact in this LTE. Saying that all a person has heard from Tom are "insults & smears" tells me that this writer is lying through her teeth. I defy her to list a single insult or smear that Tom has said. I've listened to the debates. I've heard Tom's stump speech. They're smear free. PERIOD.
Mark Dayton has given voters a detailed proposal to fix our state's huge budget deficit. Emmer gives us attack ads. Dayton has a positive vision for Minnesota. Emmer's vision is limited to winning by attacking and smearing.
Tom Emmer is wrong. Minnesota voters know it was Emmer and Pawlenty policies that got us into a budget mess. We know we need a new, positive direction. On Nov. 2, I will proudly cast my vote for Mark Dayton.
Saying that Sen. Dayton has "given voters a detailed proposal to fix our state's huge budget deficit" is a myth. A 2.5 page document isn't detailed. Saying that Tom has given Minnesota attack ads is pure BS. The only TV ad that the Emmer campaign has produced is a bio that finishes by saying we need to get the economy going. If that's the writer's definition of an attack ad, then she's warped.
It's also galling. ABM, aka the Dayton family shadow campaign, has run a series of ads that have been nothing but smears that aren't based on verifiable facts. The writer conveniently omits that fact. I wish I could say I'm shocked but I'm not.
Saying that Mark Dayton has "a positive vision for Minnesota" is laughable, too. He doesn't. Sen. Dayton's vision starts with a tax-the-rich scheme that Sen. Dayton has predicted will generate $4,000,000,000 in additional revenue. It isn't likely that it'll produce $2,500,000,000 in additional revenue. If it doesn't produce the revenue, then Sen. Dayton will raise taxes well into the middle class.
I don't consider that to be a positive vision for Minnesota.
Finally, saying that "Minnesota voters know it was Emmer and Pawlenty policies that got us into a budget mess" is more opinion than anything else. I'm betting that Minnesotans agree that spending is out of control & that Mark Dayton & the DFL is the party of out of control spending.
Serious arguments can be made that the DFL majority in the Senate, led by Linda Berglin, John Marty & Sandy Pappas, is an obstructionist majority. The joke is that the Senate is where reforms go to die. Berglin, Marty & Pappas haven't considered a GOP reform this century.
If anything, the DFL obstructionist majority is what's created the budget mess. Their refusal to consider common sense reforms has caused alot of money to be spent foolishly.
Expect to see more of these LTEs the last 8+ weeks of the campaign. The DFL doesn't have a positive agenda to run on. What's worse for them is that they're stuck with a gubernatorial candidate with a significant charisma & gravitas gap.
Posted Thursday, September 2, 2010 6:00 PM
Comment 1 by eric z at 03-Sep-10 02:14 PM
Dayton and Emmer both seem to be atop of the alcohol problems these days. Each had problems, that's documented, with Dayton having no history of putting other folks at risk by going onto the road tanked up and driving in a way that draws police attention.
But the underage Emmer kid, getting tagged for an alcohol offense after Emmer ran that wowser advertisement on his tight regular GOP family, that has to have Tom unhappy.
I would guess Tom Emmer probably would be upset by it in any event, but as something getting publicized because of the campaign, it makes it appear almost as if the kid is irresponsible, rebelling against upbringing, or something.
Perhaps he just likes to drink, or there's a peer pressure thing in Wright County among the underage male population there.
Whatever it is it happened early in the campaign and by November it may be overlooked.
Comment 2 by Rex Newman at 03-Sep-10 04:18 PM
Not to make light of the seriousness of alcohol abuse, but a drunk Emmer would still make far better decisions than a sober Dayton.
The Case For Chip Cravaack
This editorial tells us that voters in Minnesota's 8th District are taking Chip Cravaack's candidacy seriously.
Chip Cravaack is working the 2010 campaign - and working it hard. The GOP 8th District candidate got to know the Range well during the summer months while attending parades and festivals. He has also had several fund-raisers in the area, including one scheduled this evening at the Eshquaguma Country Club outside Gilbert.Rep. Oberstar hasn't paid serious attention to this district in years. He's broght home the pork for his environmentalist friend but that's about it. Now he sees that he's in trouble for the first time in years & he's suddenly taking an interest in something that's important to the voters.
He has also been quick to respond to issues of paramount importance to the Iron Range.
When Rep. Oberstar visited the proposed PolyMet copper/nickel/precious metals site near Hoyt Lakes last week to publicly demonstrate his support for the project Cravaack was quick to respond with a news release that pulled no punches in challenging the congressman on the issue.
"This project has been in the works since 2004, so I'm going to see Congressman Oberstar's new interest as a good sign. Maybe he has figured out what Minnesotans already know: Oberstar's failed formula of pork projects and deficit spending produces debt, not long-term employment.
"Of course he's for 'creating good jobs' 67 days before the election, but where was he 400 days before the election? In Washington voting for Obama's failed stimulus and corporate bailouts.
"If Congressman Oberstar was serious about getting this project up and running, construction would already be underway. His silence has been deafening, especially for the thousands of unemployed residents of Saint Louis County and their families. Actions speak louder than words. If Congressman Oberstar did something other than just talk about creating jobs, unemployment in our district wouldn't be the highest in the state."
My hope is that voters will see through Rep. Oberstar's election year conversion. I hope that they'll see this for what it is: an election year attempt to look like he cares. This charade shouldn't be taken seriously because Rep. Oberstar couldn't care less about MN-08's priorities. He hasn't for years.
If Rep. Oberstar cared about MN-08's priorities, he would've jumped on PolyMet's cause 3 years ago. If Rep. Oberstar cared about MN-08's priorities, he would've gotten government out of the job creators' way so they could've created jobs for Iron Rangers.
Whether through letters to the editor, conversations at the newspaper's front counter, personal e-mails to the editor or phone calls, Cravaack supporters are not shy in making contact.To be honest, I didn't know much about Chip Cravaack prior to this year's state convention. Since then, I've gotten to know quite a bit about him. He's an impressive candidate, smart, a man of integrity & a man of private sector accomplishments.
And they are doing so not just because of their traditional GOP roots and beliefs. Nor is it solely because of the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington, pro-tea party sentiment that is rumbling like an angry thunderstorm across the country.
All those elements certainly play into a more visible and active Republican candidacy in the 8th District. But Cravaack the person, not just his stands on the issues, has clearly generated more zeal among his likely voters in the area than for any other challenger to Oberstar in the past 20 years.
Plain and simple, many voters like this guy from Lindstrom, Minn., who had a strong and decorated military career, private sector aviation background with Northwest Airlines that included being a union steward, and who is also comfortable volunteering time in the Chisago Lakes School District where his boys, Nick, 8, and Grant, 6, attend classes.
And so just as he is working the district hard, his supporters are working hard for him.
In a recent conversation with Mr. Cravaack, I learned that he's competing in areas that 'traditional Republicans' don't compete in. What he's finding is that there's alot more people that agree with conservative principles than agree with progressive ideas.
I think that's the secret to Chip Cravaack's success. He isn't afraid to talk about being a conservative & he isn't afraid of talking about his conservative principles. I'd argue that Republicans can learn alot from Chip's campaign.
Finally, I'd argue that Chip Cravaack is Rep. Oberstar's worst nightmare. He relates to the people of the Iron Range. He's a former union steward so he understands their way of life. Most importantly, he's a very bright man. (You don't get to fly jets commercially if you aren't sharp.)
In any other year, Cravaack's fight would a steep uphill fight. This year? Not so much:
Bookies would give Cravaack long odds to unseat Oberstar. And they would also likely install the incumbent congressman as a prohibitive favorite, given past electoral history, to once again top the 60 percent vote threshold.It wouldn't surprise me to see Oberstar get substantially less than 60 percent of the vote. I won't predict a Cravaack victory at this point but I'm comfortable predicting a tight election.
But regardless the voters' verdict on Nov. 2, Cravaack has made this year's 8th District congressional race an interesting one, with voters paying more attention and the incumbent working harder. It's impressive that he has not ceded any portion of the vast 8th District to Oberstar, a Chisholm native, including the congressman's home turf.
Originally posted Thursday, September 2, 2010, revised 04-Sep 1:35 AM
Comment 1 by eric z at 03-Sep-10 02:05 PM
Does Craavick have a website.
I have never heard of him.
I would like to know his background.
Is he a mining company executive?
An insurance salesman wanting publicity?
Who. Anyone with a helpful link posting it in a comment, to some kind of candidate bio, would be doing Gary's readers a service.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 04-Sep-10 01:46 AM
Eric, I linked to Chip's website so you can find it. Second, Chip Cravaack is a retired airline pilot & former union steward, having flown for Northwest. Feel free to contact him through his website. He's a very engaging person & a very straightforward person.
Comment 2 by eric z at 06-Sep-10 02:42 PM
Gary. Thanks.
When you said "editorial" and did the extensive quoting - of an editorial, I did not realize it was posted on and linked to on the campaign site - I expected had I followed it to get a news outlet.
You did indeed link to the website. The guy looks as if he could make a stroger showing as a credible GOP candidate in MN 6 than I'd expect to see against Oberstar. He'd be a GOP upgrade if in MN 6.
Comment 3 by VoteChip at 15-Oct-10 10:25 PM
Thank you for your engaging article. and good thoughts about the recent years of how MN-08 has been represented. we look forward to hearing more voices from N. Minnesota
Twitter.com/VoteChip
http://www.facebook.com/cravaackforcongress
Administration's Newest Liar
Based on his op-ed, I'd say that Donald Berwick has officially become this administration's newest liar. Here's the myth that he's peddling:
Former health and human services secretary Michael Leavitt was incorrect in calling the Affordable Care Act's Medicare reforms an "illusion" ["The wrong prescription for Medicare," Washington Forum, Aug. 27]. It's no illusion to the seniors and people with disabilities who will pay less for prescription drugs, to the millions of Medicare beneficiaries who will have preventive care and check-ups covered without paying co-pays, or to the people who will be protected from fraud and abuse. Under the act, Medicare is stronger than it has been in years, and seniors will get new benefits. That's no illusion; that's progress.It's a lie to say that "Medicare is stronger than it has been in years" after cutting Medicare funding by half a trillion dollars only to spend that money on another new entitlement.
Here's something else that's worth debunking:
The Medicare Board of Trustees estimated last month that the Affordable Care Act produces savings that extend the life of the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund for 12 years, to 2029. The actuary of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), an independent office, reached the same conclusion.Here's what the Medicare actuary said:
The actuary's alternative memo explains that "the projections in the report do not represent the 'best estimate' of actual future Medicare expenditures." Worse than that, they are not even in the ballpark of reasonability. The official 2010 Trustees' Report tells us that total Medicare expenses will be total 6.37% of GDP by 2080. The CMS actuary's alternative memorandum explains that 10.70% of GDP is a more reasonable estimate for that year, though one that is roughly 68% higher.This administration's figures aren't credible. We were told that the unemployment rate wouldn't go above 8 percent if the stimulus passed. Friday, it was announced that it's currently at 9.6 percent. Throughout the Obamacare debate, we were told that it would cut the deficit and lower health care costs. Last week, we heard that health care costs were still rising and that insurance premiums were increasing by 9 percent.
That's before considering Vice President Biden's comments this spring that the economy would soon be adding 250,000-500,000 jobs a month. That's before factoring in the White House's deficit forecasts were based on the economy growing by 4 percent per year for the foreseeable future.
Simply put, I'll trust the Medicare actuary's figures because his projections are based on running the numbers, not on what might help a person's political party this November.
Originally posted Saturday, September 4, 2010, revised 05-Sep 11:25 AM
Comment 1 by J. Ewing at 04-Sep-10 07:13 AM
The reason Obamacare makes Medicare more solvent is precisely because of the cuts to Medicare, and because Obamacare cut payments to doctors that, in separate legislation-- the "doc fix"-- were again rescinded. They really expect us to believe that they can make more and better care appear magically, for less money? The only credible number is that Medicare has a negative cash flow and the trust fund has zero real assets to cover it. Telling people that you can buy more health care for everybody when your pocket is empty is, you are correct, a flat-up lie, or the ravings of a lunatic, same difference.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 04-Sep-10 11:40 AM
Jerry, Obamacare doesn't make Medicare more solvent. The savings from the Medicare cuts are siphoned off for the CLASS Act.
Comment 2 by J. Ewing at 04-Sep-10 06:14 PM
That's what I tried to say. They have made it more solvent by reducing the amount they spend on it. They CUT Medicare and got away with it, mostly. They seem to be very skilled liars.
Comment 3 by walter hanson at 05-Sep-10 07:53 AM
J. They aren't making it more solvent. They claim to be cutting it, but for example since the passage of the bill they added the doctor fix. The basic point is they rigged the bill to claim it cost less than a trillion dollars while adding new spending.
Medicare still has a negative cash flow. This made things worse for the whole deficit since it adds to the deficit.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Laura Brod vs. Mike Hatch: A Teachable Moment
During Friday night's edition of Almanac, Laura Brod took Mike Hatch to the proverbial woodshed. Think of it as this week's teachable moment. It isn't that Laura taught Hatch anything. He's too stubborn for that. The teachable moment is for Minnesota's benefit.
Hatch criticized Gov. Pawlenty for not taking $1,000,000,000 in federal money for Early MA. Hatch said that Minnesota didn't get its fair share of federal money. That's when Laura jumped in, saying that that type of thinking is what's caused the budget problems of the last decade.
While Hatch took offense with her statements, Laura kept teaching, saying that federal money comes with strings attached that would force Minnesota to abandon the programs that work.
The bottom line is this: Money accepted from this administration doesn't come with strings attached. It comes with CABLES attached. Minnesota has figured out how to do health care right. People know that.
First, the money comes from our wallets, meaning the DFL characterizing it as free money is a lie. Second, the federal government's perscription, Obamacare, doesn't cut costs. The care from Obamacare isn't as good as the programs Minnesota offers.
Laura's message essentially is that we're letting the federal government dictate policy to us instead of relying on Minnesotans' inovations. I'll trust Minnesotans' innovative abilities over DC's everytime & twice on Sundays.
There's another thing that Hatch didn't talk about, which is that Minnesota wouldn't get the money unless the state signed maintenance of service agreements, which mandate Minnesota maintains a certain service level whether we get federal money or not. That's unacceptable from a state budget standpoint because the minute that the federal government cuts off funding is the minute that Minnesota faces a budget crisis.
The other message that Laura was teaching is that we're better off relying on ourselves because we know Minnesota's needs infinitely better than the federal government knows. DC's remedies have failed for better than a generation. Minnesota's reliance on DC has caused far more problems than it's solved.
There's only one candidate that gets that. His name is Tom Emmer. The others don't get that, meaning that they'll just prolong the problem rather than fixing the problem.
Originally posted Sunday, September 5, 2010, revised 06-Sep 1:06 AM
Comment 1 by Leslie Davis at 07-Sep-10 07:54 AM
Emmer doesn't get it and he never will because he's basically a stubborn bully. All you have to do to realize that is veiw his behavior on the floor of the state legislature.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 07-Sep-10 08:32 AM
Coming from a crackpot like you, I'm sure Tom's worried. NOT!!!
Cutting Through the Spin
Charlie Cook's recent article for National Journal cuts through the spin. Here's the part that most jumped off the page at me:
Simply put, Democrats find themselves heading into a midterm election that looks as grisly as any the party has faced in decades. It isn't hard to find Democratic pollsters who privately concede that the numbers they are looking at now are worse than what they saw in 1994.Over the past month, Dick Morris has talked about competitive races between an incumbent Democrat & a relatively unknown Republican challenger. He's told national TV audiences that he'd be happy if the Republican challenger was 3-4 points behind at this point.
The race-by-race outlook confirms the dire forecasts. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman points out that at this point, 32 Democratic incumbents are running even or behind their Republican challengers in one or more public or private polls. At this point in 2006, when Republicans lost control of Congress, only 11 GOP incumbents were running even or behind.
Privately, some Democratic pollsters say that they are routinely seeing districts where Democratic incumbents are running only even with relatively unknown GOP challengers. In other districts where the Republican challengers are reasonably well known, the incumbents are often running 5-10 points behind, a rather extraordinary development at this point.
In one instance, GOP challenger Lou Barletta is leading Rep. Paul Kanjorski, (D-PA), by 12 points. Morris's observation mirrors what Cook is writing about.
With the economic numbers looking grim, Obamacare being as unpopular as a seasick crocodile and the Democrats' spending seen as reckless, it isn't surprising that Democrats are doing this terribly.
Chris van Hollen's, Tim Kaine's & Vice President Biden's predictions that this won't be as difficult as the pundits are predicting are exposed as spin by this information.
I'm not predicting this but I won't be surprised if the GOP retakes the House & Senate by gaining 60+ seats in the House & 11-12 in the Senate. I am predicting that Nancy Pelosi won't be Speaker much longer.
This isn't good news for Democrats either:
In the Senate, while the odds still favor Democrats holding on to a narrow majority, it is not only mathematically possible for the GOP to capture a majority this year, but it has become plausible. The odds of Democrats capturing even one currently Republican-held seat appear to be getting longer. Meanwhile, Republicans are running ahead or roughly even in 11 Democratic-held seats, one more than necessary for control of the Senate to flip. It's still a tall order but not crazy to say that Republicans will win the Senate.There's still 8 weeks before Election Day. The economy won't suddenly strengthen & save the Democrats. The only thing that's likely to happen is things getting worse for Democrats. That's especially true in places where President Obama campaigns. He's gone from having a Midas touch to being toxic.
Senators don't have the margin for error that some House members had. Each of the 59 remaining senators voted twice for the stimulus plan & Obamacare. Senators can't now complain that spending is now out of control when they voted for the runaway spending. People aren't in the type of mood where they're willing to overlook those types of votes.
Youtube has captured lots of speeches touting the stimulus as the lifeline needed to lift the economy out of the doldrums. Speeches touting Obamacare as saving money are similarly catalogued. In other words, Senate Democrats are fighting a desperate fight.
Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 1:15 AM
Comment 1 by J. Ewing at 06-Sep-10 07:55 AM
You have to watch out for desperate candidates-- they're dangerous. Look for an "October surprise" at the national level (say Obama asking for a few tax cuts), for attempts by the DNC to make all elections local rather than national, and outrageous negative campaigning (hardly something new for Democrats) painting their Republican opponents as a cross between Attila the Hun and wild-eyed Charlie Manson.
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 06-Sep-10 03:54 PM
Jerry, the DNC & DCCC can attempt to make it a local election all they want but it's the voters who've made it a nationalized election. PERIOD. Let's realize that people are more than skeptical of Election Eve conversions.
Dayton's Jobs Plan is a Joke
I just read Sen. Dayton's jobs plan . Calling it a joke is an insult to comedians. It's mostly from the 1980's. Check this out:
As Minnesota's Commissioner of Economic Development in 1978, I implemented the state's new tourism initiatives.These are the strategies that will create a 21st Century economy? Let's get serious.
As Commissioner of the expanded Department of Energy and Economic Development from 1983 through 1986, I led the new jobs programs that encouraged businesses to locate or expand here and to create thousands of new jobs for Minnesotans.
First, let's understand that you have to have a business friendly environment to entice "businesses to locate or expand here." We don't have that because the obstructionist DFL majority in the Senate keeps adding insane regulatory burdens to businesses.
Here's another facet of Sen. Dayton's jobs plan:
And, building upon the Star Cities for Economic Development program which I previously expanded statewide, I will re-establish the working partnerships between my Administration and local Economic Development Corporations throughout our state to assist their efforts in job creation.Sen. Dayton, get out of the way. Businesses don't need the DFL's 'help'. They're better off without it.
Many Minnesota small business owners are ready to expand and create new jobs, but are unable to obtain loans in the midst of an historic credit crunch. For these aspiring entrepreneurs, small loans create big growth. I will establish a micro-lending fund that will guarantee access to capital and ignite small business expansion. I will also create a "Buy Minnesotan" preference for state contracts, keeping Minnesota tax dollars in Minnesota.The biggest thing that's stopping small businesses from expanding is Obamacare. Businesses that employ 35-45 people will stay there because they don't want to deal with Obamacare's pitfalls. Until Obamacare is repealed or ruled unconstitutional, employment will lag.
This one is utterly laughable:
The even-year legislative session should be an "Unsession" in which the priority is to undo unnecessary state regulations, redundant oversight, and excessive reporting requirements for businesses, individuals, non-pro"t organizations, and local governments.In the final debate before the DFL primary, Sen. Dayton wasn't the least bit worried about the permitting process that PolyMet was spending money on. PolyMet spent 10's of millions of $$$ on studies, etc. that the federal government required of them by that time.
Those excessive requirements delay business expansions, consume many thousands of hours of peoples' time, and cost millions of dollars in unnecessary expenses. We must have strong and elective oversight in Minnesota; however, we must do so efficiently and cost effectively.
When the first debate between Tom Emmer, Sen. Dayton & Horner was held on Almanac, Rep. Emmer criticized the permitting process. Realizing that he might lose points, Sen. Dayton said that he didn't "have a problem with streamlining the permitting process." Rep. Emmer then said that he'd followed Sen. Dayton's career, noting that Sen. Dayton "hadn't written or co-sponsored any legislation that streamlined any part of government."
Forgive me if I'm skeptical of this death bed conversion.
Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 10:48 PM
Comment 1 by eric z at 07-Sep-10 07:03 AM
Anything's better than Emmer's Labor Day serving of Pawlenty and Ayn Rand leftovers.
Trickle down has failed, is failing, and will fail.
So where's his deficit reduction cutting planned?
Response 1.1 by Gary Gross at 07-Sep-10 08:33 AM
Capitalism works everywhere it's tried. The DFL's hatred of capitalists making profits puts them opposed to capitalism. Dayton's plan doesn't come close to balancing the state's budget.
Comment 2 by Rex Newman at 07-Sep-10 12:35 PM
If only Hatch had won! Taxes would have been raised to cover our "needs", "creating" jobs and "investing" in "infrastructure" that would have precluded the current "deficit"!
Ha! We'd be $10 B in the hole instead of $6 B.
Response 2.1 by Gary Gross at 07-Sep-10 09:34 PM
Rex, you're an optimist. I'd put the deficit at 12-15 million had Hatch been gov.
