October 6, 2006 Posts
02:06 Swann vs. Rendell, Part II 03:36 Sabato's Crystal Ball Still Needs Polishing 15:18 Rendell Panicking 15:38 Friday's Must Reading!!! 15:55 'Better Than Expected' 17:22 ELECTION FRAUD ALERT IN MISSOURI!!! 21:14 Hatch's Bullying Tactics Fail 21:52 Who's Out of Touch? Update 22:20 A Blast of Hypocrisy 22:33 CQ In Playboy???
Swann vs. Rendell, Part II
Ed Rendell is catching lots of flack after breaking one of the ground rules for the Swann-Rendell debates:
But stunningly, Ed Rendell, who appeared at the long scheduled debate just hours after threatening to stay home, flagrantly violated one of its most basic, pre-set rules. Despite the rules agreed to by both campaigns, Ed Rendell used pre-written notes at the podium to deliver his remarks before the live television audience.I linked to Alex McClure's post on the debate. Alex mentioned that "Rendell was reading off notes too. So much for being the brighter candidate in the race."
"The career politician with decades of experience wants another four years of service, but he couldn't deliver his arguments without notes, and he was wrong to break the rules," said Swann Communications Director Leonardo Alcivar. "What good is political experience if the candidate who's been running for office since disco was king needed a cheat-sheet to help explain why voters should give him a do over in November?"
As I said last night, this debate could shift momentum in a hurry if the Pennsylvania bloggers pick up on this. My biggest worry for these debates was whether Swann had command of the issues. It appears as though he's got sharper answers than "Fast Eddie" has. Factor in Swann's charisma, name recognition and popularity in western Pennsylvania and you've got the man who'll beat the career politician. It's also worth noting that Swann's campaigned alot in the Philadelphia suburbs with Rudy Giuliani.
According to Alex McClure's post, Rendell lost his temper a number of times, which can't help. I've never seen a candidate who looked angry move votes his way yet and I doubt I ever will. Look for this race to tighten in the next week.
And don't expect a career politician like "Fast Eddie" to have the answer for the momentum shift either.
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 2:09 AM
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Sabato's Crystal Ball Still Needs Polishing
Larry Sabato and David Wasserman's Crystal Ball has been predicting a wave that capsizes the Republican majority in the House since midsummer. They're still wrong but what should we expect since they're relying outdated measuring sticks. We shouldn't expect accuracy when they're basing things on an outdated paradigm where the major news outlets dictated things. We shouldn't expect accuracy when they're relying on polls. If polls were accurate, the GOP wouldn't be doing the amount of old-fashioned doorknocking that they're doing.
Ohio GOP Rep. Bob Ney's fall from grace and eventual withdrawal gave the weak Democratic nominee in his district an opportunity as wide as a barn door.Ohio is as red a state as there is north of Florida and Texas and west of Kansas. Ohio Republicans were irate with Gov. Taft for his tax hike and his corruption. They were upset with Ney's corruption, too. Now they're history and people are looking for answers to what matters most to them. And Joy Padgett is a first tier candidate, too. Don't look for the Democrats to take this seat.
Republicans in southern Arizona nominated a fire-and-brimstone conservative over a moderate state legislator in the district currently held by GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe, virtually ending their hopes of retaining the seat against the strong Democratic nominee.Don't bet on that, either. The leaders were going one direction, the activists another. Bet on the activists in this one because they're demanding strict border enforcement. In fact, even the Democrats are agreeing with that. Expect this to stay in GOP hands.
Twelve years later, another Foley is (as we can all agree, thankfully) out of his job, and though he did not hold the speaker's gavel, his name might well come to memorialize Speaker Hastert's downfall, if such a downfall comes to pass as either the result of resignation or the election.Joe Negron has been written off by the Crystal Ball prognosticators. Bad prediction. Jeb's put together a machine in Florida. People were appalled with Mark Foley, not with the GOP. Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman haven't given the people enough credit for being able to differentiate between corrupt politicians and fresh-faced conservatives. That's a typical liberal defect.
Notice that they haven't talked about vulnerable Democratic seats like PA-12, where 'Trader Jack' Murtha is about to be run out of Dodge. They haven't talked about Bill Delahunt's troubles in Cape Cod, either. Delahunt's now been linked with Hugo Chavez, which isn't playing well even in liberal Massachusetts.
Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman couldn't have known that the Democrats' playing politics with Foleygate has upset conservatives. This hasn't demoralized us; it's motivated us. Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman misunderestimated the voters being moved by President Bush's stumping on preventing terrorist attacks, whether he's talking about Democrats filibustering the Patriot Act or the NSA intercept program or the detainee interrogation/military commissions bill.
Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman would be wise to understand that most Americans prefer politicians who'd vote for border enforcement first immigration reform over the 'comprehensive reform' politicians because they know most of those politicians would side with Ted Kennedy and they wouldn't do anything to enforce the laws they passed.
The real wave that's coming is against people that (a) oppose real immigration reform and (b) aren't serious about protecting us from terrorist attacks. Americans know that Democrats aren't serious about preventing terrorist attacks. Americans know that Democrats would've given additional rights to terrorists being interrogated. That isn't connecting with America. It's chasing Americans away from them.
Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman haven't taken into account the crumbling monolith formerly known as the black vote. Don't they realize the impact that hip-hop artist Russell Simmons and Kweisi Mfume's son will have in Maryland races just by campaigning with Michael Steele? Don't think that that won't translate to other races either.
Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman haven't taken into account the impact that a strong finish by Rick Santorum and Lynn Swann will have on PA-6, PA-7 and PA-8 either. They haven't taken into account how strong the reform movement and anti-immigration issue is in Pennsylvania.
Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman also haven't factored in the impact that the Nutroots victory in the Connecticut Senate primary has had in driving DLC-type Democrats from the Democratic Party. Shame on them for that. If they read the blogosphere more frequently, they'd know that so-called moderates are walking away from the Democratic Party in droves.
It's time that Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman understood the power internet activists have in moving votes. Conservative internet activists know how to persuade and inform people, thereby moving voters. Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman don't realize the power that blogs that average 200 hits per day have in shaping the debate. They're able to do that because they know how to discuss issues better than most politicians and because they're masters at staying current with information.
Blogs of that size don't get much traffic but are influential because the information in their posts are uysed by bigger blogs like Redstate.org, Captains Quarters, California Conservative, Gateway Pundit, Wizbang Politics and others. The reality is that blogs are read by more people than watch the network news.
Hopefully, Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman will join us on the cutting edge of the information revolution soon. There's always room for more on the edge.
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 3:36 AM
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Rendell Panicking
If you needed proof that Rendell knows that he tanked Wednesday night's debate with Lynn Swann, look no further. In a sitdown interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Rendell is suddenly talking like a reformer:
If re-elected Nov. 7, he'll propose reducing the size of the Legislature, enacting limits on how much one contributor can donate to a political campaign and creating a "citizens committee'' to redraw House and Senate district lines after the 2010 census. Before becoming governor in January 2003, Mr. Rendell had opposed term limits for state legislators.This is proof that he knows that he's seen as an old-fashioned politician, not as an outsider bent on reforming a flawed system. He's seen politicians lose their seats in the primaries. He knows that Lynn Swann tagged him as not being serious about reform. So he's talking about reforms. Here's another bit of proof that he isn't serious about reform:
Regarding term limits, he said, "I was a little naive when I came here. When [legislators] look at the job as a career, it makes it difficult for them to do the right thing."There's a number of adjectives I'd use for Mr. Rendell. Naive isn't one of them. He's a career politician. He's just finishing up his first, and hopefully only, term as governor. Before that, he chaired the DNC. Before chairing the DNC, he was twice elected mayor of Philadelphia. Rendell was elected District Attorney of Philadelphia in 1977 before running for governor. He's got presidential aspirations. He's the quintessential career politician. Now Pennsylvanians are supposed to believe that he didn't understand that career politicians had difficulty "doing the right thing"?
He's part of the problem, not part of the solution, which is why he's got to go. It's time he learned a little about private life.
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 3:18 PM
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Friday's Must Reading!!!
Jeff Jarvis' Buzzmachine blog was one of the first blogs I ever read. I still like Buzzmachine, even though I don't always agree with Jeff. You ask why? Read this and I think you'll understand. Read the entire article. Thanks Jeff.
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 3:38 PM
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'Better Than Expected'
The CBO is reporting bad news for tax-raising Democrats across the country:
The federal budget estimate for the fiscal year just completed dropped to $250 billion, congressional estimators said Friday, as the economy continues to fuel impressive tax revenues. The CBO's latest estimate is $10 billion below CBO predictions issued in August and well below a July White House prediction of $296 billion. The improving deficit picture (Bush predicted a $423 billion deficit in his February budget) has been driven by better-than-expected tax receipts, especially from corporate profits, CBO said.Remember Democrats saying that "we can't afford Bush's tax cuts" in 2001? These figures prove that we couldn't afford not to pass them. It isn't just the moral thing to do. It's the fiscally intelligent thing to do, too.
Indulge me as I vent on a pet peeve of mine: How do these forecasters stay employed if they're seemingly always underforecasting revenues? If I had a dollar for each time I read the term "better-than-expected" in articles about the various economic reports, I'd be rich and then some.
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 3:55 PM
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ELECTION FRAUD ALERT IN MISSOURI!!!
The Missouri GOP has issued a statement quoting a PubDef blog post that tells another tale of corruption within the McCaskill campaign. Here's part of Pubdef's post:
Ten-year ACORN veteran Josephine Perkins claims she was fired last week, in part because she informed the teams she supervised that it was inappropriate and illegal for them to campaign for McCaskill while being paid by ACORN and Give Missourians a Raise, the political action committee which supports Proposition B and, according to campaign finance reports, has given money to ACORN to circulate its literature.As I pointed out here, ACORN's history is littered with campaign transgressions in numerous states. It'd be charitable to say that their organization is ethically challenged. Redstate is on the case, too, with video of PubDef's on camera interview with Josephine Perkins and McCaskill campaign staff worker Johanna Sharrard.
The Democrats' talk about a culture of corruption within the GOP rings rather hollow when you see all of the ways that they ignore FEC and election regulations. It rings more hollow when their history of convictions on election violations, found here, here and here are taken into account.
This raises other questions of ethical violations. I posted here, there was a ton of friction between Howard Dean and Rahm Emanuel. Emanuel thought Dean was throwing money away by 'investing' in Dean's '50 state strategy'. Based on the verified fact that Missouri's Democratic Party is now devoting part of their time to lit drops for Claire McCaskill, shouldn't we ask if Dean's '50 state strategy' money isn't being used to illegally assist other Democratic candidates? Aren't we justified in asking if Democrats are paying people to do the legwork on campaigns because there isn't grassroots support to do the daily campaign things?
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 5:22 PM
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Hatch's Bullying Tactics Fail
Bravo to Ramsey County District Judge Gregg Johnson for dismissing Mike Hatch's motion to have the judge removed. Mike Hatch's bullying didn't play well with Judge Johnson. Here's how the Pioneer Press's Brian Bakst reported this:
In court filings, Hatch and lawyers in his office accused Leary of making comments construed as biased in favor of the defendants, whose debt-collection practices are under fire. Hatch caught flak for making an after-hours phone call to confront Leary, which exposed the attorney general to the allegations that he broke court conduct rules. Johnson said there was nothing wrong with Leary trying to facilitate settlement negotiations between Hatch's office and the debt collectors. He wrote that removing Leary from the case would set a dangerous precedent. "It would further create havoc within our system of justice if a party was allowed to make disparaging remarks about a trial judge to the press and then demand the judge's removal from the case based on tensions created by that party's own actions," Johnson wrote.Paraphrasing Judge Johnson's ruling: Judge Leary was within his bounds to facilitate settlement negotiations and Mr. Hatch's disparaging remarks to his media accomplices about a judge in an effort to get the judge removed was a type of havoc that the judicial system couldn't tolerate.
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 9:15 PM
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Who's Out of Touch? Update
Nancy Pelosi released a statement today about the state of the Bush economy in which Ms. Pelosi says that President Bush is out of touch with America:
"President Bush and Republicans continue to claim that the economy is on the right track, with President Bush saying today's jobs report is 'more good news.' This once again demonstrates how out of touch the Republicans are, because the U.S. economy is not delivering for middle-class families."Not to be outdone, Harry Reid issued a similar-sounding statement:
"While some investors may be reaping the rewards of record high stock market, today's jobs numbers show workers are still hurting in the Bush economy. It's because the President and the Republican Congress haven't done enough to help everyone get ahead. Under their economic policies, the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer and the middle class is getting squeezed."During a week when (a) the deficit came in nearly $50 lower than forecast, (b) the unemployment rate dropped another tenth of a point and (c) the stock market hit its record high three straight days, Democrats are telling us that things can't be much worse for the middle class.
Perhaps King can explain how it's possible to have a growing economy, shrinking unemployment and the stock market reaching its all-time high without the economy benefitting America's middle class because frankly, I don't know how a major segment of the population can be hurting if the economy experiences growth over such a sustained period of time.
I suspect that there isn't an economic explanation for Reid's and Pelosi's statements but that there is a political explanation for it.
UPDATE: Check out what The Anchoress has to say about the economy.
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 10:02 PM
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A Blast of Hypocrisy
Andy at KvM has a post up that points out liberal hypocrisy, this time about child safety voting habits. These votes deserve their own chapter in Peter Schweizer's book Do As I Say, Not As I Do: Profiles in Liberal Hypocrisy.
I thought you would like to know how a few of Amy Klobuchar's fellow Minnesota Democrats voted on some major legislation regarding child safety over the last few years.It's amazing that Jim Oberstar and Martin Sabo wouldn't vote for legislation that would've protected children, especially considering the fact that each bill passed with veto-proof majorities.
Amber Alert: Passed 400 Y/ 25 N
Jim Oberstar * (D) - No
Martin Sabo (D) - No
Foley (R) - Yes
Child Safety Act 2005 Passed 371Y/52N
Jim Oberstar * (D) - No
Martin Sabo (D) - No
Foley (R) - Yes
HR 5422 To prevent child abduction, and for other purposes. Passed 390 Y/ 24N
Jim Oberstar * (D) - No
Martin Sabo (D) - No
Foley (R) - Yes
In light of this information, shouldn't MN-8 voters demand an explanation from Mr. Oberstar on his decision? Isn't it time that they stopped electing a Pelosi rubberstamp who won't even vote yes on bills protecting children?
Isn't it time that MN-8 voted for a man like Rod Grams?
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 10:20 PM
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CQ In Playboy???
Stop past Captains Quarters tomorrow to compliment him on making another Top Ten List, this time Playboy's Top Ten List of political bloggers.
Congratulations, Ed. None of us could've imagined you getting mentioned in the same sentence with Playboy.
Posted Friday, October 6, 2006 10:33 PM
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