New Minnesota Poll Out
There's a
new Strib Minnesota Poll out, with the horserace numbers showing Tim Pawlenty tied with Mike Hatch at 42-42. Now let's look at the real story, not the horserace:
The next logical question is what does this mean in terms of November? It likely means that Hatch has topped out. I'll guarantee that he'll start slipping as his unfavorables rise and his favorables drop.
One thing that can't be measured by polls is GOTV-driven voter turnout. As we've seen the last two election cycles, the GOP GOTV operation is a stellar operation. The GOP GOTV is likely worth another 2 percentage points to GOP candidates, whether it's Gov. Pawlenty, Mark Kennedy, Michele Bachmann, Jeff Johnson or Tara Westby.
One thing that isn't being talked about is how Hatch has staked out a 'No tax increases' stand. Nobody in their right mind believes that a Democrat wouldn't jump at the opportunity to raise taxes but let's just say, for the sake of this discussion, that he won't raise taxes. What he's essentially said is that he'd do what Tim Pawlenty's been doing in terms of taxes. Unfortunately, Hatch won't have any credibility if he says that he'd keep spending under control.
From what I see, I'd rather be in Gov. Pawlenty's shoes than Hatch's. By a longshot.
Originally posted Saturday, September 16, 2006, revised 17-Sep 8:25 AM
August 2006 Posts
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Both Hatch and Pawlenty have a good image among likely voters. Fifty three percent view Hatch favorably, compared with 50 percent for Pawlenty. The governor's unfavorable rating is 41 percent; Hatch's is 24 percent.Let's start by saying that the race really isn't 42-42. The MP always oversamples Democrats & undersamples Republicans. That most likely means that Gov. Pawlenty holds a 48-40 lead. Then let's realize that there's no way that Hatch's unfavorable rating stays at 24%. That'll be 40+ percent by the time Election Day arrives. Also, Gov. Pawlenty's 41% unfavorable rating is exaggerated by the MP's oversampling of Democrats. It's most likely in the 30-35% range.
The next logical question is what does this mean in terms of November? It likely means that Hatch has topped out. I'll guarantee that he'll start slipping as his unfavorables rise and his favorables drop.
One thing that can't be measured by polls is GOTV-driven voter turnout. As we've seen the last two election cycles, the GOP GOTV operation is a stellar operation. The GOP GOTV is likely worth another 2 percentage points to GOP candidates, whether it's Gov. Pawlenty, Mark Kennedy, Michele Bachmann, Jeff Johnson or Tara Westby.
Hatch and Pawlenty have secured their party faithful, according to the poll. Hatch has 85 percent of those who identify as Democrats. Pawlenty has 87 percent who identify as Republicans.This is another indicator that Hatch trails Gov. Pawlenty. This summer, it was announced that there were equal numbers of registered Republicans and registered Democrats. If we accept that premise and we accept the fact that 87% of Republicans will vote for Gov. Pawlenty while 85% of Democrats will vote for Hatch, that gives Gov. Pawlenty a 2 point lead amongst party loyalists. Then factor in that Gov. Pawlenty holds a 10 point advantage amongst independents. That means that Gov. Pawlenty would get 52% of the votes if you exclude Mr. Hutchinson's votes.
Meanwhile, Pawlenty has an edge over Hatch and Hutchinson among independents, according to the poll. Pawlenty gets 40 percent of those votes to 30 percent for Hatch and 13 percent for Hutchinson.
Pawlenty spokesman Brian McClung said Saturday that another finding in the poll, the governor's lead among independents, is "good news and reflects his mainstream appeal and success at growing jobs and strengthening Minnesota's economy."The narrative that will emerge is that Tim Pawlenty erased the $4.5 billion budget deficit that he inherited without raising taxes and that his holding the line on taxes helped create alot of jobs for Minnesotans. Partisan Democrats will think of things that Gov. Pawlenty didn't do to their liking but independents will look at how the economy's going & say that it's doing just fine. This tells me that Hatch will have a difficult time winning enough independents to catch Gov. Pawlenty.
One thing that isn't being talked about is how Hatch has staked out a 'No tax increases' stand. Nobody in their right mind believes that a Democrat wouldn't jump at the opportunity to raise taxes but let's just say, for the sake of this discussion, that he won't raise taxes. What he's essentially said is that he'd do what Tim Pawlenty's been doing in terms of taxes. Unfortunately, Hatch won't have any credibility if he says that he'd keep spending under control.
From what I see, I'd rather be in Gov. Pawlenty's shoes than Hatch's. By a longshot.
Originally posted Saturday, September 16, 2006, revised 17-Sep 8:25 AM
August 2006 Posts
No comments.
