New Articles Recognize GOP Gains

There's a distinct trend developing, according to these articles. First, let's look at Frank Newport's article. Frank is the pollster behind the Gallup Poll.

The Bush administration has spent the last several weeks carrying out a political strategy designed to stress the reality of the threat of terrorism in the United States today, while concomitantly emphasizing the GOP's perceived superiority in handling terrorism. The administration's strategy has also included a continued emphasis on the connection between the war in Iraq and the war on terror.

New USA Today/Gallup poll data provide suggestive evidence that this strategy may be having an effect. President George W. Bush's job approval rating has risen to its highest level in about a year, 44%. Americans are more positive about the war on terror and voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush on terrorism rather than one who opposes him. By a slight margin, Americans tend to think that the country will be safer from terrorism if the GOP retains control of the House, rather than if the Democrats take control. And voters are now as likely to say that the war in Iraq is a part of the war on terror as say it is not.

Here's what I said yesterday:

Republicans that run on the issues of aggressively interrogating terrorists, using the NSA intercept program to thwart terrorist attacks & enforcement first immigration reform will clean Democrats' clocks.

Mr. Newport's article largely bears that out. More people don't like the war than like it but it's close. Programs that prevent terrorist attacks, especially of the magnitude of the Heathrow thwarted attacks, get peoples' undivided attention in a snap.

1. While Iraq remains the top issue (out of six alternatives offered) voters say they are thinking about as they ponder the elections this fall, voters who say terrorism is most important overwhelmingly favor the GOP as better able to handle it. Sixty-nine percent of registered voters who say terrorism is the most important issue to their vote this November say Republicans would better handle that issue; 17% say Democrats would do a better job. The results are essentially reversed among those who say Iraq is the top issue, 60% of registered voters say the Democrats would better handle that issue and 23% say the Republicans.

Much has been made by Democratic pundits lately that the gap on terrorism has shrunk to almost nothing. Mr. Newport's findings clearly show that that isn't the case. This analysis says that people whose primary focus is terrorism overwhelmingly favor the GOP and President Bush. It's my opinion that most voters will name terrorism as the dominant issue by the time Election Day arrives, followed closely by illegal immigration.

Here's what the Washington Times' Donald Lambro reports:

Republicans appear to be gaining on the Democrats in the 2006 midterm campaign because of growing confidence in the economy, falling gas prices and President Bush's sustained political offensive on the terrorist threat, according to pollsters and campaign strategists.

In other words, Democrats' plans to run against 'Big Oil', the war in Iraq and President Bush have been vaporized by President Bush using his bully pulpit to fight back on the issue of terrorism and on the freefalling price of gas, which has dierctly translated into President Bush's higher JA Rating on the economy. In other words, Democrats have walked themselves into the same trap that they walked themselves into in 2004: They've anchored their hopes to that day's events instead of engaging Republicans on the battlefield of ideas.

Events often change at a moment's notice. Ideas, especially well-thought out ideas, stand the test of time and are, therefore, by their nature, a sturdier thing to build campaigns on. This summer, Mr. Newt suggested a campaign slogan to Democrats of "Had Enough"? They jumped at that, thinking that they didn't have to offer an appealing agenda. They jumped at it because (a) they're slogan-oriented and (b) they thought they didn't have to offer an appealing agenda. Rushing into that 'strategy' wasn't a wise move on Democrats' part.

Top election forecasters have pointed to an anti-Bush and anti-Republican "wave" that they predict will return the Democrats to majority power in the House, but Mr. Zogby said, "I don't see the landslide that others are seeing. That doesn't mean it can't materialize, but as of today, it's not happening and this is mid-September."

I can see a wave developing but it's an anti-Democrat wave, not anti-GOP, although I agree with Mr. Zogby that there isn't evidence of an anti-GOP wave. Each day, I read more about how the Republicans who take a hardline immigration stance and who support aggressive terrorist interrogation techniques are gaining ground. That's why I've been forecasting GOP gains in the House and Senate all along.

One bit of proof of that came from AZ-8 last Tuesday night when Minuteman founder Randy Graf defeated the GOP 'moderate' that the White House and RNC were supporting by preaching a hardline anti-illegal immigration message. Expect Mr. Graf to be sworn in as Jim Kolbe's replacement as AZ-8's representative this January.

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Posted Tuesday, September 19, 2006 2:33 PM

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