March 4, 2008
Mar 04 04:35 Dear Pamela Mar 04 05:13 Has the Tide Changed? Mar 04 10:56 Brett Favre Retires Mar 04 14:09 A Graceful Cave On FISA? Mar 04 19:06 Fawning Press Turns On Startled Obama Mar 04 18:42 Asking the Right Questions Mar 04 19:38 Liveblogging the Primaries
Dear Pamela
One of Rep. Steve Gottwalt's constituents recently emailed him about the DFL's override of Gov. Pawlenty's veto. Here's Rep. Gottwalt's response:
Dear Pamela,The sad truth is that the transportation bill is just the first of several major tax increases that the DFL will pass & attempt to override this session. The other sad part is that the DFL howls about the GOP plan of using bonding to leverage the building of roads & the repair of bridges because it heaps debt on our children but doesn't think twice about heaping that same burden on the children to build arenas in Bernie Lieder's & Frank Moe's districts.
Today your state legislator, Sen. Tarryl Clark, voted to override Governor Pawlenty's veto of the $6.6 billion transit bill, thus passing into law one of the largest tax increases in our state's history. Sen. Tarryl Clark voted in favor of this massive tax increase in spite of recent polls showing the majority of Minnesotans opposed this bill. Sen. Tarryl Clark voted for this bill in spite of receiving numerous constituent phone calls and emails urging the Senator not to override the Governor's veto.
As a result of this vote, Minnesota will now have one of the highest gas taxes in the nation. A new sales tax will be imposed upon a majority of Minnesotans without a referendum allowing the people to have a voice in this decision. And those who purchase a new vehicle will pay a significantly higher personal property tax each year over the life of the vehicle. In the end, all Minnesotans will pay more - an average of $300 to $400 annually per household. And these new taxes are regressive, hitting those who can least afford it the hardest.
The bill passed today allocates millions of dollars to funding boondoggle mass transit programs versus fixing our roads and bridges. The bill passed today still relies upon pork-barrel allocation formulas for channeling gas tax revenues to areas other than those which need it the most.
There were other options available to finance Minnesota's transportation needs. But Sen. Tarryl Clark decided to raise your taxes instead of cutting spending or making use of bonding. What may be most disappointing about this vote is that it suggests your legislator may not have the people's best interests in mind. It suggests that Sen. Tarryl Clark cares more about special interest groups that stand to benefit from this bill rather than constituents who will be forced to pay for it. Perhaps it's time for the people to get serious about taking back their government. Perhaps it's time for a change in whose representing your interests at our state capitol.
State Rep. Steve Gottwalt
House District 15A
The DFL followed its time-honored tradition of taxing first & skipping the prioritizing altogether. They should be ashamed of themselves but they aren't. Instead, they're praising each other about finally getting something done for transportation. The truth is that they finally paid off their allies by heaping new taxes on the backs of working with real jobs, people who don't get to be part of some special interest group.
I've seen lefties downplaying the possibility of a taxpayers' revolt. They'll find out soon enough that that revolt is real & gaining momentum.
Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2008 4:35 AM
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Has the Tide Changed?
The question that I can't get rid of is why Barack Obama didn't respond more forcefully to Hillary's 3 AM ad. Sure, he put out a cute little ad shortly thereafter but it was timid. The Obama that took Hillary's momentum away isn't the Obama that responded to Hillary's most direct hit in months.
The 'old' Obama would've dismissed the ad either as more fearmongering from Team Clinton or as the politics of division, not unity. Instead, Obama chose to respond feebly with this ad:
The Obama camp is even trying to raise expectations for Tuesday night's primaries :
By their own clear definition of where they expected and believed they needed to be after Ohio and Texas, the Clinton campaign will fall terribly short on March 4th. The Obama pledged delegate lead stands at 162. The question for the Clinton campaign if they do not significantly erode that lead on Tuesday is what plausible path they have to even up the pledged delegates in the remaining contests.In other words, Obama will say that if Hillary doesn't win big in Ohio and Texas, that it's the end of the road for Hillary. They'll say that she can't win. The thing is that Obama flinched at a time when Hillary seems to have stemmed Obama's tide, at least somewhat.
There are 611 pledged delegates left after March 4th's contests. They would need to win at least 62% of all remaining pledged delegates to get back to even. And while they have often talked about Pennsylvania ; where public polls show their lead deteriorating rapidly ; the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and Mississippi primary or March 11th could potentially result in more pledged delegates netted to the winner than on March 4th.
So it is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins ; and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.
If Hillary wins in Ohio, then Obama will have to fight with her through Pennsylvania at minimum, thereby giving John McCain to define Obama in an unflattering light.
This polling shows that Hillary's stemmed the tide in Ohio, with Rasmussen showing Hillary with a solid 6 point lead.
The other dynamic that's changed is that Obama is getting scrutinized alot closer now. His free pass is coming to an end. It'll be interesting to see how he responds to the pressure. He hasn't faced much scrutiny up until now. It's one thing for him to have swatted away Hillary's desperate barbs. It's quite another to get hit with alot of probing questions about character and past associations.
That said, I still agree with David Plouffe that it's a very uphill climb for Hillary but I think the 3AM ad hurt Obama enough to give Hillary something to cling to for hope of pulling off a miracle.
PS- Check back tonight for my liveblogging of Super Tuesday II.
Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2008 6:50 PM
Comment 1 by skep41 at 04-Mar-08 10:02 AM
Ah, what fun! The Messiah March appears to be over. Yesterday's press conference with The Hopeful One turned into a shouting match about Rezko. Obama's only logical response is to ask the press boys why they're not talking about Chicom Cash and Bimbo Eruptions. Let's hope Hillary manages to survive today so we can have a whole lot more of this. We can dream of a Hillary victory, eked out with lawsuits and strongarming at the convention so that there are plenty of bruised feelings all around.
Brett Favre Retires
According to this ESPN article, Brett Favre has decided to retire . Quite literally, I'm stunned by the news. This is quite literally the end of one of the Packers' greatest eras, right up there with Lombardi's retirement.
ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported that according to Favre's agent, Buss Cook, Favre informed Packers coach Mike McCarthy of his decision Monday night.A few years ago, the Packers picked Aaron Rodgers. Favre's retirement likely means the start of the Aaron Rodgers era. It'll be interesting to see what this does to the Pack. You don't just replace a living legend, especially one that had Favre's talent, combativeness and attitude.
Foxsports.com first reported Favre's decision.
A sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer, Favre, acquired in a trade with the Atlanta Falcons, led the Packers back to the NFL's elite. He retires with 5,377 carrer completions in 8,758 attempts for 61,655 yards, 442 touchdowns and 288 interceptions.
There aren't enough superlatives to describe No. 4. He had Joe Namath's gunslinger mentality with a lineman's style. What made him great was that he didn't have a conscience or a memory. It didn't matter if he'd thrown 3 interceptions that half. All he knew was that he was going to try and make the play even if his throw had to fit in between 3 defenders. He had absolute confidence in his abilities and with good reason.
As a Vikings fan, I hated him. As a football fan, I'm sad. There'll never be another Brett Favre.
Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2008 10:57 AM
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A Graceful Cave On FISA?
For months, Democrats in the House and Senate have have huffed and puffed at the start of the debate on various bills, then left whimpering when President Bush got his way again. That's certainly been true with the Iraq funding bills. Based on this Washington Times article , it sounds like they're getting better at caving into President Bush's demands:
But the House Democratic leadership is under mounting pressure from members of the Blue Dog Coalition (a group of relatively moderate Democrats who joined with Republicans in August to pass a temporary extension of FISA over Mrs. Pelosi's objections) to adopt the Senate bill or work out some kind of compromise on retroactive liability protection. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer indicated last week that he wants to work out an agreement, and Mr. Reyes, interviewed on CNN's "Late Edition," said that the Intelligence Committee had been talking to telecommunications companies "because if we're going to give them blanket immunity, we want to know and understand what it is we're giving them immunity for." The Texas Democrat's use of the term "blanket immunity" would appear to suggest that the House leadership is moving toward the Senate bill. Mr. Reyes added that he has an "open mind" about retroactive liability protection, and said negotiators are "very close" to working out some kind of compromise.This had to happen if we were serious about preventing future terrorist attacks. Now that it's all but signed, sealed and delivered to President Bush's desk, the NSA can breath a sigh of relief.
Meanwhile, Nancy Boyda says that the FISA reform bill will shred the Constitution :
"I am adamant about protecting the Constitution. They're giving nothing in return for it. We're not getting any more security and they're shredding the Constitution," said U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Second Dist.Ms. Boyda should've paid attention to what Mike McConnell said when he talked about how a FISA appeals court ruling changed the entire landscape for intel-gathering agencies:
The reason that the FISA law was passed in 1978 was an arrangement was worked out between the Congress and the administration, we did not want to allow this community to conduct surveillance, electronic surveillance, of Americans for foreign intelligence unless you had a warrant, so that was required. So there was no warrant required for a foreign target in a foreign land. And so we are trying to get back to what was the intention of '78.Court after court has ruled that intelligence-gathering in wartime is a reasonable search. It should also be noted that warrants weren't required for foreign intelligence gathering prior to FISA's enactment in 1978. Here's more of Rep. Boyda's infantile rant:
"What shocks me is how members of Congress from Kansas would so readily give up 230 years of our Constitution without gaining any additional security," Boyda said.Rep. Boyda would be wise to study the precedents on this issue. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that she didn't know about previous FISA rulings in the appellate courts. As I stated earlier, FISA didn't exist until 1978. Prior to that, warrants weren't needed to surveil foreign communications because courts had ruled that gathering intelligence in wartime was a reasonable search . (Hint to Rep. Boyda: The Fourth Amendment only covers unreasonable searches .)
It's sad that Rep. Boyda doesn't think that the NSA's regaining the powers that they once had is "gaining any additional security." Clearly, DNI chief Mike McConnell thinks that it restored their capabilities. Here's another piece of information that Rep. Boyda should process:
A knowledgeable source on intelligence issues, who declined to speak on the record concerning a sensitive topic, said that current FISA legislation worked, but was not expeditious. Targets of opportunity were difficult to pursue under current FISA guidelines.Time matters. That's why this legislation is important. For a legislator to deny that it isn't exposes that legislator as either an idiot or a spinmeister. Whichever the case, we can't tolerate people as unserious as Rep. Boyda voting on such important matters, especially in wartime.
She needs to be retired this November.
Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2008 2:12 PM
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Fawning Press Turns On Startled Obama
People have been wondering if the fawning media would finally start asking tough questions of Sen. Obama. We now have our answer. By all accounts, they're intent on not giving him a free ride anymore. This account by the Washington Post's Dana Milbank captures what happened at an Obama press conference. Suffice it to say that he wasn't his usual calm, cool, collected self.
It took many months and the mockery of "Saturday Night Live" to make it happen, but the lumbering beast that is the press corps finally roused itself from its slumber Monday and greeted Barack Obama with a menacing growl.I've long maintained that Sen. Obama was only able to maintain his cool because he hadn't gotten any difficult questions. One shouldn't look flustered when fielding softballs. A big reason why he's looking rattled is because of Hillary's 3 AM ad, her first successful attack against Sen. Obama in ages. As I pointed out here , his reply was timid:
The day before primaries in Ohio and Texas that could effectively seal the Democratic presidential nomination for him, a smiling Obama strode out to a news conference at a veterans facility here. But the grin was quickly replaced by the surprised look of a man bitten by his own dog.
Reporters from the Associated Press and Reuters went after him for his false denial that a campaign aide had held a secret meeting with Canadian officials over Obama's trade policy. A trio of Chicago reporters pummeled him with questions about the corruption trial this week of a friend and supporter. The New York Post piled on with a question about him losing the Jewish vote.
Obama responded with the classic phrases of a politician in trouble. "That was the information that I had at the time...Those charges are completely unrelated to me...I have said that that was a mistake...The fact pattern remains unchanged."
When those failed, Obama tried another approach. "We're running late," the candidate said, and then he disappeared behind a curtain.
Before he beat his hasty retreat, however, Obama found time to assign blame for the tough questions suddenly coming his way. "The Clinton campaign has been true to its word in employing a 'kitchen sink' strategy," he protested. "There are, what, three or four things a day?"
Spoken like a man who had just been hit on the head with a heavy piece of porcelain.
The Obama that took Hillary's momentum away isn't the Obama that responded to Hillary's most direct hit in months.
The 'old' Obama would've dismissed the ad either as more fearmongering from Team Clinton or as the politics of division, not unity. Instead, Obama chose to respond feebly with this ad:
I suspect that Sen. Obama is hoping he throws a knockout punch tonight because there will be trouble ahead if he doesn't. With the Rezko trial starting and with the fawning media scrutinizing him more, he could be in for a difficult stretch.
I still expect him to prevail in the nomination fight but it's 'Katie, bar the door' if he doesn't deliver a knockout punch tonight.
Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2008 7:08 PM
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Asking the Right Questions
Conservatives often complain about the liberal bias in the media. Too often we forget to compliment the media when they ask the right question. I won't be guilty of that this time. SC Times reporter/blogger Larry Schumacher asked alot of the right questions of the DFL leadership after they introduced an accountability bill in the Senate. He documents the exchanges in this post . Here's what led to the exchanges:
The big guns of the DFL House and Senate lined up Tuesday morning to present a series of nine bills that would "increase accountability on the part of the Legislature and increase accountability on the part of the executive branch," according to Sen. Ann Rest , DFL-New Hope, who heads the Senate State and Local Government Operations and Oversight Committee .
The bills would, among other things:
- Require inflation to be included in the state's fiscal forecast.
- Expand legislative access to state agency budget information.
- Allow lawmakers greater access to information supporting the budget data, reports of state agency projects.
- Allow committee chairs and ranking minority members access to more agency info.
- Prohibit nonpartisan state employees from advocating for policy or political goals unless it's spelled out in their job descriptions.
What reforms and increased accoutability would legislators face as a result of these proposals?
Here's her extremely lame reply:
"Well, the Legislature would receive better information, and that would lead to us being accountable for making better decisions," Rest said.Larry then wonders aloud:
What about legislative compensation reform, a subject of some controversy and at least one lawsuit currently before the courts that alleges lawmakers' per diems amount to a back-door pay raise that circumvents the state Constitution?Larry should've known better asking that question. Reforms, like eliminating pork from the budget, is what the other guy's supposed to do. It isn't something that they put on their own shoulders. Larry should've known that personal enrichment takes precedent over something as silly as the Constitution.
After all, Larry, the Legislature didn't even bother passing a budget targets bill last year mandated by the Constitution. Another thing worth considering is that the Senate should confirm department commissioners when a new session starts. They didn't get to Carol Molnau until this week.
The good news is that alot of citizens are paying attention. The worst news is that those citizens that didn't pay attention will be able to get caught up on the blogs. We'll gladly remind them of the things that the legislators did right, the things that legislators did wrong & things that the legislature didn't deem important enough to pay attention to.
BTW, for those of you who aren't paying attention, Larry's one of the good guys in the Capitol print media, ranking right up there with Mark Brunswick.
Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2008 6:42 PM
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Liveblogging the Primaries
Wow. That caught me offguard. it's only 6:30 and CNN is already calling Vermont for McCain and Obama .
10:51- The ever-gracious Howard Dean has issued the following congratulatory note to John McCain:
"John McCain is out of touch with the issues facing Americans each day. Instead of offering solutions to the high cost of health care, help for the middle class or ideas to create jobs, McCain offers 100 years in Iraq and more of the same Bush budgets that have heaped debt onto our children and damaged our economy. Instead of ending the influence of lobbyists in Washington, he's hired them to run his campaign. The closer voters look at the real McCain record, the more they will realize he cannot be trusted to deliver the change America wants."10:44 - CNN.com is reporting Hillary's lead in Texas at 47,000+.
10:40 - Hillary's lead is back to 30,000.
10:31 - MOMENT OF THE NIGHT came with Karl Rove saying he'd been ordered back to the pit. When Doug Schoen asks if he'll apologize for his earlier remarks, Rove says "No, I was ordered back here because I was intemperate."
10:24 - I finally tuned into Hillary's speech & I regret doing that. She's absolutely robotic with the most dreadful monotone voice imaginable. Everyone's talking about the momentum her wins in Ohio & possibly Texas would give her. Her speech will kill alot of that momentum.
10:17 - Hillary's lead is now down to 12,000+ in Texas. The Architect is saying that Obama might win most of the delegates in Texas but then says that "that's a heckuva message for Obama to tout", saying that 'yeah we lost the popular vote but we won more delegates.'
10:05 - There's another shift happening in Texas. Hillary's lead is now down to only 754,231 to 741,992. This topsy-turvy primary is heading for another change of direction. It's gonna be a late night and then some.
10:00 - Hillary has now been declared the winner in Ohio. Rove is now saying that if Hillary's lead holds, then Hillary will shrink Obama's delegate lead by approximately 23 delegates. CNN.com is showing Hillary with a 58-40 percent lead with 56 percent of the vote in.
9:56 - Texas website is showing Hillary Obama leading 661,515 to 606,892.
9:53 - Doug Schoen is now talking nonsense, saying that McCain should pick Joe Lieberman because "it would be a compelling pick." Karl Rove says that "that's a pipe dream."
9:50 - The Texas SecState website is showing Hillary's lead widening. Hillary now leads Obama 640,070 to 592,004.
9:35 - Doug Schoen is talking about how the late deciders in Texas are moving in Hillary's direction. This indicates that my theory that things were shifting against Obama. This means that it's much more likely that we won't know who the Democratic nominee is for quite some time.
9:15 - According to the Texas SecState's website , Hillary has 554,000+ votes to Obama's 539,355. Michael Steele, appearing on FNC's Stategy Room on the internet, says that this is likely to be a good night for Hillary. He said that Hillary's coalition has been re-assembled.
9:07 - Karl Rove reports that the Texas Secretary of State is showing Hillary has moved ahead of Obama.
8:35 - Sen. McCain will travel to the White House tomorrow to get President Bush's endorsement.
8:30 - CNN is projecting Hillary as the winner in Rhode Island. Details to follow.
8:12 - CNN is projecting John McCain as the GOP presidential nominee .
Sen. John McCain will win Texas and become the Republican presidential nominee, CNN projects.Now starts Sen. McCain's general election campaign, a time in which he'll define Barack Obama as too inexperienced to entrust the White House to in a time of war. Sen. McCain doesn't need to define Hillary because she's defined herself over the last 15 years.
McCain swept all four contests in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, giving him the 1,191 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination.
McCain will travel to the White House to be endorsed by President Bush as early as Wednesday, sources tell CNN.
I strongly suspect that Hillary will stay in until the Convention but that Obama will win the nomination.
7:15 - A judge has ordered that several polling places in Cuyahoga County remain open until 9:00 pm ET. Here's a better timeline of the events leading to the ruling:
8:19 p.m. The number of precincts being kept open is 15. The exact locations have not been released, yet.6:47 - RCP is linking to this CNN post showing Hillary with a slim lead in Ohio exit polling. According to my trusty calulator, Hillary is getting 51.2 percent of the exit polling vote thus far in Ohio.
8:12 p.m. A Cuyahoga County judge has granted a motion filed by the Obama campaign to keep some polling stations in Cuyahoga County open until 9 p.m. The exact locations being kept open late have not been specified, yet.
8:02 p.m. The Cuyahoga BOE has suspended the counting of all ballots pending the outcome of the Obama campaign's motion
7:58 p.m. The Obama campaign has gone before a judge to try and get an order to have the polls remain open in Cuyahoga County until 9 p.m. The campaign claims there was a shortage of Democratic ballots that may have left some voters without the chance to vote. A higher number than expected number of Republican voters showed up at the polls Tuesday asking to switch parties and receive a Democratic ballot. A judge in Sandusky County already approved a similar measure requested by Ohio Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner. Brunner says there was a lack of Democratic ballots in that county due to the number of voters switching parties.
4:45 p.m. Cuyahoga County BOE Director, Jane Platten, held a news conference detailing how the situation was going so far. Overall, it seems the voting has gone smoothly with few problems reported.
6:40 - CNN is calling Ohio for McCain :
Sen. John McCain will pick up his second win of the night with Ohio, CNN projects, but the Democratic race there is too close to call.
Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2008 11:54 PM
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