June 7-8, 2007
Jun 07 16:27 Going, Going... Jun 07 19:57 ...Gone!!! Jun 08 00:07 Why It Failed Jun 08 00:59 It's (All But) Over Jun 08 07:51 Democrat Whining In Immmigration Reform's Aftermath Jun 08 13:51 A History Lesson Jun 08 23:53 Kennedy-GOP Connection Inflames Activists, Kills Bill
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Prior Years: 2006
Going, Going...
The Bush-Kennedy-McCain-Reid immigration package looks like it's circling the drain. I know it's on life support because Harry Reid's already blaming the bill's failure on President Bush:
Reid appealed to Bush to twist the arms of Republicans who voted against limiting debate, saying an inability to pass the legislation would produce headlines that the "president fails again."I've watched politics for a few decades and I can tell you that that's professional spin, worthy of a Clintonista. That spin is insulting to every thinking human being. If it's "the President's bill", why did Ted Kennedy write it? This is typical Democrat 'I'm never to blame for anything' nonsense.
"This is the president's bill. He has worked long and hard," Reid said. "This bill that's on the floor is not a Democratic bill, it is a bill that was worked on by Democrats and Republicans in cooperation with the president."
Mississippi Senator Trent Lott, the Senate's No. 2 Republican and a supporter of the legislation, urged colleagues to stop trying to kill the measure and work toward a final vote because "this is one of the biggest issues facing the country."Sen. Lott, Sit down and shut up. This bill is an abomination. In fact, that's putting it mildly. It doesn't secure the borders, which is the mandatory first step. It doesn't beef up the enforcement staff that keep track of visas. It shrinks the amount of fence that gets built from 854 miles to 370 miles. It's obvious that Sen. Lott and Sen. Graham have forgotten that they work for us, not vice versa. In fact, Lindsey Graham who should be fired by his primary challenger next winter. He should be ashamed of himself for supporting this bill.
Let's face facts. Working 'across the aisle' isn't a virtue when you're dealing with an insane political party. It's only a virtue when you're getting something of value out of the deal. Republicans aren't getting anything of value out of this. No bill is better than this insulting legislation.
Posted Thursday, June 7, 2007 4:29 PM
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...Gone!!!
Major Garrett has just reported on FNC that Democratic and Republican senators have told him that the 'Grand Compromise' immigration reform bill is as good as dead. They've told him that there aren't nearly enough votes to invoke cloture to end the debate. Since they can't end debate on the legislation, they can't proceed to a final vote on the bill. They told him he could start choosing the words for the obituary. That sounds like this bill's last gasp. Good riddance.
This finishes a chapter that Republicans like John McCain, Arlen Specter and Lindsey Graham should be ashamed of. They didn't listen to the people. Worse, they got snookered in negotiations with Ted Kennedy.
This all but officially ends McCain's presidential bid. He can campaign all he wants. He can give his stump speeches, too. But he's dead in the water. The proof of that came from South Carolina. Aiken County McCain for President Chairman David Nix resigned from the McCain campaign over the issue of immigration. Here's the content of his brief letter of resignation:
"Please consider this my resignation as Aiken County chair for McCain. I am too far from him on the Amnesty Bill. I was hopeful that he could keep his nose clean this time around, but he can't read the pulse of the American citizens."Sen. McCain didn't listen to the people. Instead, he thought only of how this would be part of his legacy. In the end, the people told him that he's supposed to work for them. In the final analysis, he decided that he knew better. Sen. McCain found out tonight where the power lies.
UPDATE: You've got to check Leo's take on the death of this bill.
Posted Thursday, June 7, 2007 8:38 PM
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Why It Failed
Much will be written in the coming days as to why the
Here's why I've reached that conclusion. Most importantly, this bill didn't secure the Mexican-US border. A majority of Republicans and independents state that that had to be the bill's first priority, meaning that the bill was pushing uphill into a stiff headwind the entire way. Despite McCain's and Kennedy's protestations to the contrary, there simply wasn't proof that the co-authors were serious about stopping the flow of illegal immigrants.
McCain picked the wrong hill to fight his battle on. When the bill reduced the amount of fence from 854 miles to 370 miles, it's impossible to convince people that you're serious about border enforcement.
That fight got even tougher after John Cornyn's op-ed last Sunday talking about how backlogged USCIS was:
The State and Homeland Security departments had three full years to prepare for an easily foreseeable flood of new passport applications. However, we are seeing the results. Planning and staffing for the new law has been woefully inadequate.That op-ed, which was picked up by newspapers all across the nation, told people that the language in the bill was meaningless because it couldn't be enforced. It essentially said that visa enforcement wouldn't happen. The American people simply wouldn't tolerate that.
Tens of thousands of U.S. citizens who applied for passports in January and February of this year, anticipating travel this summer, have not yet received their documents. The passport office is in near-chaos. All over the United States, people are turning to congressional offices seeking help.
Some critics are justifiably asking: If the federal government cannot even handle routine passport applications for U.S. citizens, how can it possibly do thorough background checks and issue visas for millions of foreign-born applicants?
What I found hilarious was Ted Kennedy's prediction earlier tonight:
"It's touch and go. It's extremely close," said Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, (D-MA) , as negotiators worked to salvage the measure, a top priority for President Bush that's under attack from the right and left.Here's what the AP reported later:
The bipartisan compromise championed by the president failed a crucial test when it could not attract even a simple majority for an effort to speed its passage.It's obvious that Sen. Kennedy was lying through his teeth when he said that it was "extremely close." It couldn't even attract a majority of senators on the cloture motion, much less get the sixty votes required to invoke cloture.
I'll predict that this won't be the last attempt at immigration reform. Ted Kennedy wants this too badly to let this setback stop him. Kennedy is a big open borders supporter. He also knows that George Soros won't keep opening his checkbook to support Democrats if they don't continue pushing for Soros' pet projects. And there's no doubt that he wants an open border between Mexico and the United States.
Proponents had argued that the bill, on balance, was worth advancing. "We can all find different aspects of this legislation that we differ with," said Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, the leading Democratic architect of the bill. He held out hope after the vote that the measure would survive. "Doing nothing is not an alternative," Kennedy said. "This issue isn't going away."Doing nothing is a viable option if open borders legislation is the other option. On the other hand, Sen. Kennedy is right in saying that this issue isn't going away. I just wish he'd see that nothing will happen until they get serious about building the fence and enforcing existing laws.
I'm betting that most Republicans are now wary of the 'comprehensive immigration approach' because they know that they'll face primary challenges if they support it. In fact, I'm betting that Lindsey Graham is preparing for a primary fight. I'm predicting that he'll be out spinning things before this weekend is over.
When you make deals with
Posted Friday, June 8, 2007 12:20 AM
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It's (All But) Over
Time is slipping away from Chuck Hagel as Hagel's Senate career appears over. (H/T Leo, who's doing a happy dance.)
The attorney general of Nebraska, Jon Bruning, stopped by our office yesterday to let us know that tomorrow he will announce he will challenge Senator Hagel in the Republican primary, which is in May of 2008. A poll conducted for Mr. Bruning shows him leading Mr. Hagel among likely Republican primary voters by 9 percentage points. Mr. Bruning assails Mr, Hagel for being, "The Republican that talks like a Democrat," pointing to Mr. Hagel's support for a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq, as well as his discussion of impeaching President Bush. "He's become arrogant and out of touch," Mr. Bruning said. "His constituent services are very poor."I'd love seeing Mr. Bruning beat Hagel. He's this year's Linc Chafee. The only thing that'd be better would be if Hagel announced he wasn't running for the Senate in an attempt to run for president as an independent. That way, Bruning wouldn't have to fight a primary fight. Bruning is right in saying that Hagel has become arrogant in his job. Now that that's happened, it's time for him to go, especially when he's voting against Republicans on all of the big issues.
Mr. Bruning also mentioned New York Sun editorials documenting the weakness of Mr. Hagel's record on Israel, including a recent speech by Mr. Hagel before an Arab American group in which Mr. Hagel said that support for Israel shouldn't be automatic. Mr. Bruning, 38, has been to Israel three times and is seeking backing from the pro-Israel community for his challenge to Mr. Hagel. It'll be interesting to see how Mr. Hagel's weakness on foreign policy plays in the American heartland when challenged by a strong candidate such as Mr. Bruning. There's been talk of Mr. Hagel mounting a Republican presidential campaign or joining with Mayor Bloomberg on an independent presidential ticket, but it looks to us as if the senator from the Cornhusker state may be lucky if he even manages to hold on to his Senate seat. It'll be a race on which to keep a close eye.
Posted Friday, June 8, 2007 1:00 AM
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Democrat Whining In Immmigration Reform's Aftermath
Democrats took varying approaches in the aftermath of last night's final defeat to the immigration bill. (I refuse to call it reform.) According to this NY Times article, Harry Reid whined while Ted Kennedy blustered about the status quo not being acceptable:
"The vote was obviously a big disappointment, but it makes no sense to fold our tent, and I certainly don't intend to," said Senator Edward M. Kennedy, (D-MA), and a chief author of the bill. "Doing nothing is totally unacceptable."Fight on all you want, Sen. Kennedy. Expend all the energy that you can muster. Last night verified what we learned last year: that comprehensive immigration reform is a nonstarter until we see the Bush administration and the Senate get serious about stopping the flow of illegal immigrants by building the fence.
It's time that the Senate listened to the people for a change instead of listening to Ted's bluster. It's time that they realized that the American people insist on being heard. This bill was essentially a collection of poison pills, none of which did a thing to improve border enforcement. It was a 'Washington knows best' bill.
While Teddy blustered about continuing the fight, Harry Reid opted for full spin mode:
Mr. Reid said the critics were simply stalling and would never be satisfied. Noting the Senate had considered more than 40 amendments and held 28 roll call votes, he attributed the failure of the bill to Republican recalcitrance.It's time that Reid realized that the bill was a collection of fatal flaws. This bill was doomed because it didn't do anything to enforce the borders. That's why a number of Republican amendments were offered. Reid, Kennedy, McCain and Specter took a 'Washington knows best' perspective to this. They refused to give a fair hearing to legitimate amendments that would've made the bill acceptable. When they refused to take serious amendments seriously, the American people started burning up the phone lines to Washington.
As I've said before, this bill collapsed because there wasn't a single good reason for it to pass. Good riddance.
Posted Friday, June 8, 2007 7:52 AM
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A History Lesson
Dean Barnett has another of his FAQ posts up, this time about the Iowa Straw Poll. Here's one of the questions that he asks:
5) How about Rudy?I thought the statement about there being "no intrinsic reason why Romney should be beating him so soundly in Iowa" sounded a bit odd so I checked into the Republican history of the Iowa Caucuses. Here's what I found:
Rudy remains a formidable candidate, but there's no intrinsic reason why Romney should be beating him so soundly in Iowa. At some point, Rudy will have to beat Romney in Iowa.
RepublicansMost of the races were utterly predictable. George Bush was the favorite amongst Republicans in 2000, as was Bob Dole in 1996. That's why 1988 jumps out at people. Bob Dole trounced George Bush by an almost 2 to 1 margin, with President Bush 41 finishing a distant third.
2004 - George W. Bush* (unopposed)
2000 - George W. Bush* (41%) defeated Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)
1996 - Bob Dole (26%) defeated Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)
1992 - George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1988- Bob Dole (37%) defeated Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush* (19%) , Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)
1984 - Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)
1980 - George H. W. Bush (32%) defeated Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)
1976 - Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan
Dole's big win did nothing to prevent George Bush from cruising to the White House in 1988.
Phil Gramm tied Bob Dole in the 1995 Straw Poll, then took only 9 percent of the vote in the Caucuses. To be fair, the Straw Poll winners have usually won the Caucuses but the rule of thumb is that the Iowa Caucuses do more to winnow out the longshots than it does to propel the winners.
The other point of contention I have with Dean's post is this:
7) So Rudy's not doing well in Iowa. Big deal. He can win one of the others, right?Mitt's 'home field advantage' in New Hampshire isn't lopsided by any stretch of the imagination. Considering Rudy's northeast roots, he can easily rebound from Iowa with a strong showing in New Hampshire. Dean has a point about South Carolina, though.
Not really. Iowa is his best shot. Mitt has a home field advantage in New Hampshire and Fred has one in South Carolina.
The point I'd make is that I think we're reading too much into Giuliani not putting alot of emphasis on the Iowa Straw Poll. He's perfectly capable of rebounding from that to win the Caucuses, at which point Romney would be the candidate facing a must win situation in New Hampshire and a Thompson juggernaut in South Carolina.
The final point I'd make is that most Republicans, justified or not, haven't taken a shine to Romney, McCain or Giuliani, mostly because they've been waiting for a true conservative. To alot of conservatives, Fred Thompson looks like the candidate that they've been waiting for. That belief could create a significant momentum for Thompson, a momentum that isn't visible right now.
From what I've heard, Thompson's got a ton of support in the South, which is something that'll cause more problems for Romney than for Giuliani. According to my source, conservatives are ok with Rudy because of his post 9/11 leadership. They don't have nearly as high of an opinion of Romney because he's still perceived as a flip-flopper.
Posted Friday, June 8, 2007 1:52 PM
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Kennedy-GOP Connection Inflames Activists, Kills Bill
Certainly, that isn't news to anyone who's read the newspapers lately. Ralph Hallow's article offers specific insights into why linking up with Ted Kennedy is death to Republicans.
An immigration alliance with Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts is damaging Arizona Sen. John McCain and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham among conservative Republicans. The damage to the two Republican senators caused by their support for Mr. Kennedy's immigration bill, which was blocked by a Senate filibuster last night, is especially clear in Mr. Graham's home state, scene of an early presidential primary next year.Acting in concert with the most despised liberal in the Senate isn't the way to improve your popularity with the GOP base. Asking his direction on how to vote on a controversial bill instead of listening to your constituents is incomprehensible and indefensible. You simply can't do that.
"I'm very wary of a Republican who is talking to Ted Kennedy," Rick Beltram, Republican Party chairman for Spartanburg County, S.C., told The Washington Times yesterday, after it was reported that Mr. Graham and Mr. McCain had first checked with Mr. Kennedy before deciding to vote with the Massachusetts Democrat on an amendment to the Senate bill.
This is what happens when elitists like McCain, Kennedy, Graham and Specter take a 'Washington knows best' attitude. That's why we must vote out politicians that frequently ignore the will of the people. That means finding quality primary challengers for Chuck Hagel and Lindsey Graham. That means defeating city council members that won't enforce the laws of the land. That means defeating sheriffs that are party to the politicians that establish sanctuary cities.
South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson said the immigration issue has inflamed Republican voters in his state. "I have been chairman for five years and have never seen anything that has connected with the base like this amnesty fight," Mr. Dawson said. "I can't go down the street, walk into a restaurant or fill my gas tank without people walking up to me and saying, 'What are you all going to do about immigration?'"Republicans know that this is a national security issue, meaning that they know that something must be done to fix this expanding crisis. It's also apparent that the Kennedy-McCain bill did essentially nothing to fix the main immigration problems. We knew that border enforcement wasn't a serious consideration.
That's why Republicans should take the lead on this and craft their own legislation. Invite Democratic senators like Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Evan Bayh of Indiana into a group along with Republicans like John Cornyn, Jeff Sessions, Jim DeMint and Norm Coleman to write legislation that would be serious about enforcement and that would beef up the USCIS so that we could process and track the various visas.
If they followed that process, I'd bet that they could get 60 votes for final passage without breaking a sweat. The other demandment is that Ted Kennedy's fingerprints aren't on this legislation because conservatives know better than to trust him on law enforcement.
Posted Friday, June 8, 2007 11:54 PM
Comment 1 by jroosh at 09-Jun-07 10:05 AM
insights into why linking up with Ted Kennedy is death to Republicans.
...they probably shouldn't ride in a car with him either.
Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 09-Jun-07 10:40 AM
JR, They may be idiots in terms of policy but I'd doubt that they're willing to put their lives in Teddy's hands.
