January 3, 2008
Jan 03 10:20 A Reagan Conservative Jan 03 12:36 Campaign Dirty Tricks Jan 03 15:23 Let's Shock the World Jan 03 18:47 Super Volunteers? Jan 03 19:11 God Bless John Roberts Jan 03 20:45 Keep Iowa Blue??? Jan 03 21:49 Best Stat Of The Night Jan 03 23:01 Mitt's Early State Strategy On Life Support
A Reagan Conservative
Peter Robinson, who wrote Ronald Reagan's famous 'Tear Down This Wall' speech, has an interesting post up over at NRO. In this post, he says that he got two emails back-to-back. Here's the content of his post:
By the sheerest of coincidences, these two emails came in back-to-back. The first, from a reader:In other words, Fred Thompson, not Mitt Romney, is most capable of uniting the old Reagan coalition. It's nice seeing pundits that actually knew Reagan speak up on who's the Reagan conservative in this race.
Mr. Robinson, In your opinion, is Fred Thompson a Reagan conservative? I ask because you actually had a chance to work with the man and would know better than most. Rush said maybe only one candidate was a Reagan conservative, but he wouldn't name him. My measly two cents says he was talking about Fred, but he didn't want to endorse him. Thanks in advance.
The second email, from my old boss in the Reagan White House, the man who hired me into the speechwriting shop, Ben Elliott. Ben himself worked closely with the Gipper, in particular drafting some of Reagan's most memorable economic addresses. Ben writes:
Only Thompson has a true conservative platform to defend life, liberty and American sovereignty. Only Thompson is advancing a compelling program for economic growth by controlling entitlement spending, unleashing innovation and making the American Dream real for every taxpayer. Only Thompson is committed to strengthening both our military and our intelligence and rallying the country for what must be a protracted struggle against jihadism.
Is Thompson a Reagan conservative? He is indeed.
It's great seeing these pundits tell the world that, despite Hugh's propaganda, that Mitt isn't a Reagan conservative.
It's time Republicans woke up and realized that we're voting for the next leader of the free world, not for who "looks presidential."
Posted Thursday, January 3, 2008 10:22 AM
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Campaign Dirty Tricks
When it comes to elections, I assume that Democrats will do whatever it takes to win elections. That's a foregone conclusion to me. What I can't stand is when Republicans engage in campaign dirty tricks. Based on this USA Today blog post , it appears as though that's what's happening:
One of The Politico's top stories this morning: "Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson's presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's Iowa caucus." The sources telling that to reporters Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen: "Well-connected friends and advisers of Thompson." Allen and Martin report that one of those sources "said there is 'a strong likelihood' that if Thompson comes in a distant third in Iowa, with less than 15% of the vote, he would drop out soon-most likely before this weekend's New Hampshire presidential debates."When it's revealed who put this out there, their reputation won't be worth a plugged nickel. It's impossible to know who put this stuff out there but this might have a backlash effect, though not necessarily in Iowa.
The Thompson campaign, however, did announce Wednesday that the former Tennessee senator plans to be at those debates. And Thompson campaign spokeswoman Karen Henretty told Politico that "doing well in Iowa means exceeding expectations, and Fred has been exceeding expectations for more than forty years.... Thursday's results aren't likely to close any chapters."
And IowaPolitics.com writes that last evening Thompson said "That is absolutely made up out of whole cloth." He said a rival campaign was probably trying to spin the news. "Can you imagine such a thing in politics?" he asked. Thompson also said he thinks there's been a "surge" in interest for his campaign in recent days, a view echoed by the conservative blog The Corner at National Review Online. Ed Morrissey at the conservative Captain's Quarters also thinks the story is just "rumor and speculation."
Needless to say, there's a spate of stories talking about Fred. One has Fred dropping out after Iowa. Another says that he'll endorse John McCain. The Carpetbagger Report asks this question: "Thompson to exit stage right?"
Forget all that nonsense. Fred's in this for awhile.
Posted Thursday, January 3, 2008 12:38 PM
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Let's Shock the World
In saying that, Fred came close to mimicking Jesse Ventura . Here's what Sen. Thompson said:
I think that the country has not changed its mind since I first ran in 1994. They said yes to what we were saying then & they'll say yes again to what we're saying now. They haven't changed their mind & we've gotta let them know that we haven't changed ours. And that's what we can do in this room. That's what we can do in Iowa today. Let's go out & shock the world. Let's do something great for our country.This is the message that Republicans need to hear. That's why movement conservatives should be contributing to Fred's campaign.
On paper, Mitt Romney should be running away with the nomination . He's practically lived in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's spent fistful after fistful of money on advertisements in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's trailing in Iowa and leading by a nose in New Hampshire.
My point is that people shouldn't trust the stories out there. Voters, not pundits, will decide who the GOP nominee is. If Fred finishes strong in Iowa, Fred lives to fight another day in South Carolina. We've read the stories about Fred's demise. Suffice it to say that reports of Fred's demise aren't just greatly exaggerated; they're downright wierd.
I remember Democrats and pundits in the summer of 2004. Top Democratic strategists from Bob Beckel to Susan Estrich to James Carville were saying that the presidential race was "John Kerry's to lose." I kiddingly told friends on Election night that it's a good thing that John Kerry was up to the job of losing that election.
Let's view this from a different perspective. Conservatives keep complaining about how biased the Agenda Media is, then they accept the bilge that the Agenda Media feeds them. STOP RIGHT NOW!!! Think and decide for yourself.
When Hugh Hewitt says Fredheads should just forget about Fred and jump onto the Mitt Bandwagon, stop and think for yourself. When the Huckabooomers tell us what a great conservative he is, stop and think for yourself.
When Fred makes his case, stop and think for yourself. Ask yourself if his ideas make sense. Ask yourself if he's been trustworthy. Ask youserlf if Fred's been given big responsibilities and got positive results when given those responsibilities.
Posted Thursday, January 3, 2008 3:25 PM
Comment 1 by Ginger Root at 03-Jan-08 11:31 PM
Shilling for Wilfred Brimley!
WHERE'S THE FIRE?!
Super Volunteers?
I couldn't believe my eyes when I read this Bloomberg article . Only a Romney campaign would use this term:
Romney's supporters include 60 paid "super volunteers" who are canvassing in Iowa, and drivers in all 99 counties, focusing on the party's traditional suburban voters, said Albrecht.This just adds to the image Romney has that he'll twist words. Bill Clinton talked about "what the meeaning of the word is is." Mitt's now calling paid staffers volunteers. In the spirit of helping the Romney campaign make the necessary correction, here's the definition of volunteer :
- a person who voluntarily offers himself or herself for a service or undertaking.
- a person who performs a service willingly and without pay.
Perhaps this explains how Mitt can say his record as governor of Massachusetts was solidly pro life even though he signed MittCare into law knowing that MittCare would mandate publicly subsidized abortions.
It's a fair question to ask if words have any meaning in Mitt's world. I'll keep you posted if I find out anything on that. I won't hold my breath on that, though.
Posted Thursday, January 3, 2008 6:49 PM
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God Bless John Roberts
First, let me explain that I'm talking about the John Roberts that works at CNN, not the John Roberts who is Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. With that out of the way, CNN's John Roberts has a great line in the interview. Looking Fred Thompson square in the eye, he said:
"Senator, I know how much you'd like to talk about the horserace but we'd like to talk about some issues this morning."
To say that that caught Fred off-guard is understatement. All in all, I'd say that Roberts did a great job in interviewing Fred. I just wish more interviewers would focus on the important things rather than on frivolous things about 'looks presidential' or 'the most conservative electable candidate'.
Posted Thursday, January 3, 2008 7:23 PM
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Keep Iowa Blue???
I'm jumping around alot tonight, trying to find current vote totals. This website solicits contributions to "keep Iowa blue in 2008."
I hate telling them this but President Bush flipped Iowa in 2004, meaning it's currently a red state, though I suspect they'l flip it back in 2008. Here's what the message says:
Keep Iowa blue in 2008! Your contribution will help deliver the state for our Presidential nominee and send Tom Harkin back to the U.S. Senate. ContributeIt's amazing that Democrats think that people are that stupid.
now!
8:03 pm: CNN has called the GOP race . WOW!!! Huckabee 35, Romney 24, Fred 14 with 25% reporting.
If these results hold, then Romney's in deep trouble. There's alot of votes still left to be counted so I'm not calling this a bad night for Romney just yet. I'm just saying it's gotta be disappointing if that's all the better he does.
UPDATE II: There's no spinning these results :
The GOP results marked a remarkble road to prominence by the former Arkansas governor, who appeared to ride a wave of support from Iowa evangelicals to rise from essentially nowhere within the GOP field to beat Romney. The former Massachusetts governor had spent months developing a state-of-the-art Iowa organization and outspent Huckabee by a factor of roughly 20 to 1.After making Iowa his home away from home the last 18 months, this must hurt Romney badly. When you outspend someone 20:1 and you've got a "state-of-the-art Iowa organization", you shouldn't lose, much less by double digits.
Huckabee also survived a barrage of negative ads from Romney and intense scrutiny from the national press that prompted a series of missteps on foreign policy issues.
If McCain beats him in New Hampshire, Romney's run will essentially be over.
Posted Thursday, January 3, 2008 9:40 PM
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Best Stat Of The Night
According to this CNN article , Uncommitted defeated Dodd, Gravel & Kucinich by a 2 to 1 margin.
Posted Thursday, January 3, 2008 9:51 PM
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Mitt's Early State Strategy On Life Support
That's a bit of overstatement but it won't be if John McCain wins in New Hampshire next Tuesday. Here's what the Kansas City Star is reporting:
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won a narrow victory Thursday night in the Iowa Republican caucus, an outcome nearly inconceivable eight weeks ago.I don't know where they're getting the line about winning a "narrow victory". Beating the months-long Iowa frontrunner by 9 points isn't that narrow. Otherwise, though, I totally agree with the article.
Huckabee's victory was a serious setback for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who finished second. Romney now faces a major battle next Tuesday in New Hampshire, where he'll face Huckabee and a resurgent Arizona Sen. John McCain.
And the entire field may face renewed energy from former Sen. Fred Thompson, who appeared to scramble to a third-place finish.
Mitt's early state strategy was his best hope of winning the GOP nomination. Mitt isn't eliminated by any means but his near-double digit loss definitely has him on the ropes. If McCain beats him in neighboring New Hampshire, he's history. Here's another accurate assessment:
For Romney, who once enjoyed a double-digit lead here, the outcome is a potential problem. He must now turn his attention to New Hampshire, which holds the first primary in the nation next Tuesday.I'd be surprised if McCain's relatively strong showing in Iowa, combined with his longstanding appeal in New Hampshire don't spell trouble in New Hampshire. It's worth noting, though, that New Hampshire has a history of 'correcting' Iowa's results. Certainly, it'll be an interesting debate this weekend.
There he'll face McCain, whose own campaign struggled last year. If McCain can beat Romney, who was governor in nearby Massachusetts, in New Hampshire, Romney's effort will be in jeopardy, many Republicans believe.
This debate won't be tailor-made for Mitt, either. By now, people are looking for something more than "looks presidential." They're looking for the next leader of the free world. The 'beauty pageant' phase of the nomination is over. Now people are looking for substance.
It's in that environment that Fred should flourish. Based on tonight's results, Fred's campaign should get a healthy infusion of cash to campaign on. The hit pieces asking if he's got the sufficient fire in his belly or suggesting that he'll drop out and endorse McCain will instantly vanish.
It's also worth noting that Romney still faces difficulties if he survives New Hampshire. As I wrote here , Mitt's got serious problems with the life issue. If ARTLA airs the same advertisement in South Carolina that they ran in Iowa, Romney's evangelical support will vanish.
Posted Thursday, January 3, 2008 11:02 PM
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