Crystal Ball Still Murky

There was a time when Larry Sabato was one of my go to guys when it came time for the elections. That ended abruptly in 2004 when he listed Florida as leaning Kerry's direction. Now he's back with another installment of the Crystal Ball. It's no more accurate than his 2004 presidential prediction for Florida. Here's what I'm refering to:
Conservatives are deeply upset with the Bush administration and the GOP Congress about the lack of fiscal discipline, corruption in the ranks, immigration, and a host of other subjects. A dangerous thesis has taken hold among many in the GOP: that it might be better to lose the '06 election and re-group. In American history, when a faction in the majority party decides the party is tired and could benefit from some time in the wilderness, the voters usually oblige.
Sabato's right that off-the-deep-end ultraconservatives are deeply upset but when aren't they? The group that thinks "it might be better to lose the '06 election and re-group" comprise what I call the Purist Wing of the GOP. That group is but a sliver of the GOP but it gets touted as the dominant wing of the party. The truth is that conservatives didn't like the President's nomination of Harriet Miers, his not using the veto pen on spending and his immigration plan but they've come home in the sense that they're telling Washington what they want. They're doing everything they can to send more senators and representatives to Washington that believe in enforcement first immigration policies. Randy Graf, the Minuteman founder, is proof of that.

While the purists can't get past Washington's lack of fiscal discipline, the vast majority of conservatives have sorted things out and realized that Democrats are downright scary on the terrorism and illegal immigration issues. That's given conservatives all the motivation they need to turn out in high numbers.

What these indicators are telling me is that Republicans will gain seats in the House, anywhere in the 4-12 range and that they'll have a net gain of 1-2 seats in the Senate when the dust settles.

When I'm right, I'll tell Mr. Sabato that he needs a new and improved Crystal Ball, one that's more dialed into reality in the heartland.


Posted Sunday, September 17, 2006 4:34 PM

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