Bachmann Leads in SurveyUSA/KSTP Poll

I know I posted the SurveyUSA/KSTP poll in my debate roundup but I've decided that it deserves an article all its own. Let's get right to the statistics:
Bachmann gets 89 percent of Republican votes. Wetterling gets 85 percent of Democrat votes. Independents would split their votes among the women, according to the poll.

Bachmann leads by 19 points among men. Wetterling leads by three points among women. Bachmann's lead comes entirely from voters under age 50. Voters over the age of 50 split their votes evenly. Bachmann leads by 70 points among conservatives. Wetterling leads by 62 points among liberals and by 19 points among moderates. Of those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance, 87 percent choose Bachmann.

Of those who disapprove of Bush's job performance, 77 percent choose Wetterling. President Bush's job approval among likely voters in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District is 46 percent.
My first impression when I read the internals of the polling was "This is what a real poll looks like." With Sen. Bachmann getting very strong support amongst her base and Mrs. Wetterling getting strong support from Democrats, the numbers fit logically. With MN-6 being the most conservative district in the state, this naturally translates into a Bachmann lead.

DumpBachmann posted something in response to the relatively low undecided totals. The precise comment was:
"In the "REAL" world, that percentage at this point is more in the area of 25 to 30 percent."
Frankly, I don't buy into that notion at all because DFLer's know Patty Wetterling well and because the GOP faithful know Sen. Bachmann as well as DFLers know Mrs. Wetterling. When you have two known quantities, expect the undecideds to be low. It's worth noting that this poll also tells us that Sen. Bachmann's support amongst college students and middle age wage earners is rock solid. Having seen Sen. Bachmann campaigning, I can tell you that this poll accurately tells the story that I've seen at parades this summer.

It's worth noting that the commentary/conclusions to this poll are logical as opposed to the Minnesota Poll commentary. Remember this analysis:
Most notable to Duffy is that Kennedy has a favorable rating of 44 percent but voter support of only 32 percent. "He's losing,people who view him favorably," Duffy said. "That's hard to do, and it's rare. It tells me that people are looking for change. They like him, but they're looking for something else."
As I said in that post, Duffy should know better than to trust these poll results. Red flags went up instantly when I read them. It's rare because it doesn't make sense & should be seen as not credible.

Based on this polling and factoring in last night's debate performance, I expect Sen. Bachmann's lead to widen in the next two weeks.


Posted Tuesday, September 19, 2006 9:16 AM

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