Turning Purple
That's what
Katherine Kersten's research is showing. Here's a glimpse into her column:
Here's more to support that analysis:
The next election will be vital in determining the course of Minnesota politics for the next generation. If Gov. Tim Pawlenty is reelected, Mark Kennedy wins the U.S. Senate race and Republicans take back control of the Minnesota Senate, we'll have the opportunity to see how popular mainstream GOP policies are. I suspect that people will notice how sensible they are and that these policies will appeal to sensible voters.
Similarly, more Democrats are showing themselves to be of the MoveOn.org/Daily Kos variety. This isn't just a trend in Minnesota, either. It's nationwide, with the most traditionally blue states seemingly most affected by this trend.
What will all this mean come November is still an open question. If the activists work hard work and the candidates run solid campaigns, there's no reason why this can't be a feel-good story for Republicans.
Posted Monday, May 22, 2006 4:27 PM
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Minnesota, once thought of as a solid Blue State, is now a Purple State: politically up for grabs. What's going on? Demographic changes may be part of the explanation.Jacobs' analysis appears to be right on the mark. It's no secret that the GOP's GOTV has focused their most intense efforts in the suburbs and exurbs.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for Politics and Government at the Humphrey Institute, says two factors might play a role. The first is generational replacement. " The folks who grew up during the New Deal are passing into history," says Jacobs. "In their era, government was expected to play a big role. The generation that's replacing them is influenced by very different experiences, from Watergate to Ronald Reagan. We're still a state with a baseline of support for a robust government role. But economic liberalism may be fading somewhat, with social conservatism replacing it." The second factor is in-migration. "A new set of people are moving to Minnesota," says Jacobs. "They are settling in suburbs and exurbs like Lakeville, the fastest-growing parts of the state. They tend not to look to government as much. You might call them the Tim Pawlenty coalition."
Here's more to support that analysis:
Annette Meeks, my former colleague at Center of the American Experiment and a longtime Republican activist, says she often meets these newcomers at party events. "When I speak to Republican groups, I'm always amazed at the number of people who, like me, have come from other states, where, for example, taxes are much lower. They say, 'It doesn't have to be like this.'" Demographic change may help explain why Minnesota is moving to the right. But it doesn't address what is perhaps the Minnesota Poll's most surprising finding: Republican support remains steady here, despite the barrage of negative news that has recently plagued Republican politicians nationwide.This doesn't mean that Republicans have smooth sailing in Minnesota. There's still plenty of liberals here in the 'State of Humphrey'. Alot of these liberals have likely re-registered with the Green or Independence parties.
The next election will be vital in determining the course of Minnesota politics for the next generation. If Gov. Tim Pawlenty is reelected, Mark Kennedy wins the U.S. Senate race and Republicans take back control of the Minnesota Senate, we'll have the opportunity to see how popular mainstream GOP policies are. I suspect that people will notice how sensible they are and that these policies will appeal to sensible voters.
Similarly, more Democrats are showing themselves to be of the MoveOn.org/Daily Kos variety. This isn't just a trend in Minnesota, either. It's nationwide, with the most traditionally blue states seemingly most affected by this trend.
What will all this mean come November is still an open question. If the activists work hard work and the candidates run solid campaigns, there's no reason why this can't be a feel-good story for Republicans.
Posted Monday, May 22, 2006 4:27 PM
No comments.
