The Difference A Day Makes
What happened in a day? After all, the
AP ran a story titled "Democrats Eye November Landslide". Of course, it was filled with caveats how this landslide might not even take Republicans out of power in the House. (Question: If they're talking landslide, how is it that they might screw it up and not even retake the House? After all, landslides are pretty overwhelming events, characterized with lots of proof beforehand.) That headline is refuted by
the Washington Times' Donald Lambro's article this morning. His article is titled "Takeover of House, Senate not likely".
"The 2006 midterm elections are a political analyst's nightmare. The national climate seems to portend big changes, yet race-by-race analyses reveal formidable odds against a Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate," veteran elections tracker Charlie Cook says in his latest National Journal election preview.
Charlie, there's a reason for that. The generic ballot is worthless in predicting the outcomes of elections. It's the equivalent of the right track/wrong track numbers. Secondly, there's an anti-incumbent mood but it's mostly people not liking other peoples' incumbents.
It's kinda like when people are asked about the economy and they say the outlook's gloomy. Then they're asked if they've got a job. The person says that he's got a job and isn't worried about losing it but he's worried that other neighbors might lose their jobs. The gloom is based on the perception that the media is portraying, not reality.
Let's admit something else here, too, Charlie. The generic Democrat is always more appealing than the reality Democrat. The generic Democrat is filled with all the things that that voter likes and doesn't carry the baggage that a real Democrat will.
Finally, let's remind ourselves of something hugely important in all this, namely that campaigns matter. Here in Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar hasn't been an effective campaigner thus far. Can she turn it around? Possibly, though I doubt it. She talks too much in 'bureaucratspeak'. On the other hand, Mark Kennedy talks in what might be best titled 'mainstreetspeak'.
Ms. Klobuchar dodges issues like they're the plague. Just think back to Friday night's debate with Ford Bell. It was like pulling teeth before Ms. Klobuchar said she prefered a Canadian-style healthcare plan. It's that type of thing that caused me to write something titled Does Klobuchar Stand For Anything? It doesn't appear she does.
Klobuchar's campaign website has a page titled Amy on the Issues. I predict that you won't know more about Klobuchar's stand on the issues any better after you've read it. Here's a sampling of what's found there:
Securing our Nation and Changing Course in Iraq
Whether it was their categorical (but false) assertions about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, or their repeated (but unsupported) claims of Iraq's ties to Al Qaeda, or their frequent (but untrue) assurances that America would go to war only with broad international support, or their constant (but divisive) attempts to "spin" the war by going after those who disagreed with them, the Bush-Cheney administration did not give honest information to the American people. This conduct has not only damaged America's credibility throughout the world, but also undermined the American people's confidence in our own government.
Klobuchar did say that she didn't support going to war with Iraq. She devoted one sentence to that. She immediately launched into a "Bush lied, people died" diatribe.
This sounds like the typical response by Democrats. It's certainly what Rahm Emanuel was peddling in his LA Times op-ed this weekend.
That's why Democrats won't retake control of either chamber of Congress.
"Democrats have a remote chance of winning," Mr. Cook says. Making matters worse, the Democrats were able to recruit only second- or third-tier challengers in many key districts where the Republicans looked vulnerable.
As opposed to the GOP recruiting Michele Bachmann types to run in Republican open seats. Frankly, that's a substantial disadvantage to the Democrats and it isn't being talked about by the national media. That's why you need to get your election analysis from blogs like this one and from the indispensible KvM, Bachmann v. Wetterling and MDE, though this list isn't comprehensive by any means. A new blog that's a surefire winner is Powerline BOTW Wizbang Politics, featuring Lorie Byrd and Alex McClure.
At the end of the day, Democrats will be crying in their beer and dreaming up nutty conspiracy theories as to how the Republicans 'stole the election.
Posted Tuesday, May 30, 2006 12:01 PM
No comments.
"The 2006 midterm elections are a political analyst's nightmare. The national climate seems to portend big changes, yet race-by-race analyses reveal formidable odds against a Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate," veteran elections tracker Charlie Cook says in his latest National Journal election preview.
Charlie, there's a reason for that. The generic ballot is worthless in predicting the outcomes of elections. It's the equivalent of the right track/wrong track numbers. Secondly, there's an anti-incumbent mood but it's mostly people not liking other peoples' incumbents.
It's kinda like when people are asked about the economy and they say the outlook's gloomy. Then they're asked if they've got a job. The person says that he's got a job and isn't worried about losing it but he's worried that other neighbors might lose their jobs. The gloom is based on the perception that the media is portraying, not reality.
Let's admit something else here, too, Charlie. The generic Democrat is always more appealing than the reality Democrat. The generic Democrat is filled with all the things that that voter likes and doesn't carry the baggage that a real Democrat will.
Finally, let's remind ourselves of something hugely important in all this, namely that campaigns matter. Here in Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar hasn't been an effective campaigner thus far. Can she turn it around? Possibly, though I doubt it. She talks too much in 'bureaucratspeak'. On the other hand, Mark Kennedy talks in what might be best titled 'mainstreetspeak'.
Ms. Klobuchar dodges issues like they're the plague. Just think back to Friday night's debate with Ford Bell. It was like pulling teeth before Ms. Klobuchar said she prefered a Canadian-style healthcare plan. It's that type of thing that caused me to write something titled Does Klobuchar Stand For Anything? It doesn't appear she does.
Klobuchar's campaign website has a page titled Amy on the Issues. I predict that you won't know more about Klobuchar's stand on the issues any better after you've read it. Here's a sampling of what's found there:
Securing our Nation and Changing Course in Iraq
Whether it was their categorical (but false) assertions about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, or their repeated (but unsupported) claims of Iraq's ties to Al Qaeda, or their frequent (but untrue) assurances that America would go to war only with broad international support, or their constant (but divisive) attempts to "spin" the war by going after those who disagreed with them, the Bush-Cheney administration did not give honest information to the American people. This conduct has not only damaged America's credibility throughout the world, but also undermined the American people's confidence in our own government.
Klobuchar did say that she didn't support going to war with Iraq. She devoted one sentence to that. She immediately launched into a "Bush lied, people died" diatribe.
This sounds like the typical response by Democrats. It's certainly what Rahm Emanuel was peddling in his LA Times op-ed this weekend.
That's why Democrats won't retake control of either chamber of Congress.
"Democrats have a remote chance of winning," Mr. Cook says. Making matters worse, the Democrats were able to recruit only second- or third-tier challengers in many key districts where the Republicans looked vulnerable.
As opposed to the GOP recruiting Michele Bachmann types to run in Republican open seats. Frankly, that's a substantial disadvantage to the Democrats and it isn't being talked about by the national media. That's why you need to get your election analysis from blogs like this one and from the indispensible KvM, Bachmann v. Wetterling and MDE, though this list isn't comprehensive by any means. A new blog that's a surefire winner is Powerline BOTW Wizbang Politics, featuring Lorie Byrd and Alex McClure.
At the end of the day, Democrats will be crying in their beer and dreaming up nutty conspiracy theories as to how the Republicans 'stole the election.
Posted Tuesday, May 30, 2006 12:01 PM
No comments.
