Sabato's Crystal Ball

HT: Bachmann v. Wetterling

Larry Sabato has broken out his crystal ball to take a look at the Bachmann v. Wetterling race. Here's what Larry's got to say:

Minnesota (6) (Open Seat)

Outlook: Leans Republican

This race is part of the Crystal Ball's "Dirty Thirty" list of the 30 most competitive House races.

While GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy attempts to receive a promotion to the Senate from Minnesota's voters, the congressional seat he is leaving open is quickly becoming the scene of a very fierce battle among several Republicans and two Democrats who all want very badly to succeed him in this northern Twin Cities suburban district.

Hard-line conservative GOP state Sen. Michele Bachmann appeared to have taken an early lead in the intra-party fight, but she faces opposition from both more moderate state Rep. Jim Knobloch and anti-tax state Rep. Phil Krinkie. To a lesser extent, former military pilot Jay Esmay may be a factor. Although all the candidates have agreed to support the winner of the standard GOP nominating convention, there exists a slight possibility at least one candidate who comes up short could prolong the nomination battle towards the fall primary.

Meanwhile, waiting in the wings was supposed to have been Democratic-Farmer-Labor Blaine Mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg, who served as the state's Transportation Department chief in the cabinet of former Gov. Jesse "The Body" Ventura. What Tinklenberg lacks in a good political name he may make up for with a good political face, as he bears an uncanny resemblance to a younger Walter Mondale. But this month's surprise last-minute decision by 2004 DFL nominee Patty Wetterling to go back on her commitment to Tinklenberg by switching from the Senate race to the House race here certainly complicates the DFL picture.

Overall, the entrance of Wetterling, the well-known missing children's advocate who held Kennedy to 54 percent in 2004, slightly enhances Democratic chances in this district. She maintains excellent name recognition in the area and will likely win the DFL nomination. But for Democrats, the fact that Tinklenberg and Wetterling must now do battle in the first place is an certainly an unwelcome consequence of Wetterling's delay in entering the race. Her office-shopping may become a serious issue in itself.

If either Tinklenberg or Wetterling is to have a shot at winning the general election in a GOP-leaning district that now includes the emerging Republican stronghold of St. Cloud, the Republican nominee will probably need to be bruised, battered, and short on funds coming out of the GOP nomination fight. At this point, that scenario is not out of the question, though we do give the Republicans an advantage.

Candidate - 4th Quarter Raised - Cash on Hand

Phil Krinkie (R) - $80,152.38 - $266,294.07

Jim Knoblach (R) - $102,155.64 - $236,616.01

Michele Bachmann (R) - $106,062.04 - $209,889.36

Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) - $127,475.50 - $184,628.85

Jay Esmay (R) - $11,297.85 - $26,749.91

Patty Wetterling (D) - $200.00 - $66.13

Frankly, If this is what Sabato thinks is a competitive seat, then his crystal ball must be extremely foggy. Simply put, Michelle Bachmann is a superior campaigner, something that Wetterling wasn't in 2004.

Factor in Wetterling's being pro choice & pro gay rights in a religious congressional district & pro 'immediate redeployment' in Iraq, it's difficult for me to see how Wetterling keeps it close.

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Posted Tuesday, May 23, 2006 4:37 PM

Comment 1 by Jeff at 23-May-06 08:06 PM

Hi,

Those dollar figures look like they came from FEC reports.

Go to this site:

http://herndon2.sdrdc.com/dcdev/

Search on Bachmann and Wetterling and look at the reports filed 4/15. (First ones in the list.)

Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 23-May-06 09:12 PM

thanks Jeff. It tells pretty much the same story. Wetterling has $36 & change. Michelle's got almost $200K.

I suspect that out-of-state Democrats will give generously so I don't think these stats are that meaningful just yet.