Morris's Predictions
Don't take
Dick Morris' latest article for the Hill magazine too seriously. Until yesterday's article, Morris was wondering if Democrats could retake control of the Senate. Now he thinks they can. There's two problems with his opinion: (a) he's clueless on a couple mentioned races and (b) he's omitted some Republican pickups.
While he's locked in a tight race now, expect Jim Talent to prevail, too. He's a very good campaigner and he's right on the issues.
While Democrats have done better in Montana than you might think, they aren't strong enough to get someone as liberal as Tester elected. This is where depth of candidates matters. While Tester was the best of the Democratic bunch, he still isn't a first-tier candidate. That'll matter far more than the Abramoff connection, which is a bigger deal inside the Beltway than in specific races.
It's worth noting that Morris doesn't even mention the best chances for Republicans to pick up the open Senate seats being vacated by Minnesota's Mark Dayton and Maryland's Paul Sarbanes.
I expect Mark Kennedy to beat Amy Klobuchar like a drum. She's the DFL-endorsed candidate but she got trounced in a Friday debate against Ford Bell. Bell forced Klobuchar into endorsing a single-payer healthcare plan that night. I'll guarantee that Kennedy's team will tie that around her neck the rest of the campaign. She's also announced that she'd vote to increase taxes on small businesses. Kennedy's campaign will tie her to that, too. They'll also characterize her as an out-of-touch liberal lefty. She's said that Mark Dayton is her political hero at a time when Dayton dropped out of the race because Kennedy would've drubbed him.
Sarbanes' seat is about to go red with Michael Steele, Maryland's first African American Lt. Gov., polling well. Further complicating the race for Democrats is that they're about to choose Ben Cardin over Kweisi Mfume, the second straight time they will have chosen a white man over a qualified black man for statewide office. Factor in RNC Chairman Mehlman's outreach work in Maryland and there's a strong chance that Republicans will win that race.
At the end of the day, look for Republicans to either finish even or possibly up 1 from where they're at now. Any thoughts that Democrats retaking the Senate are misguided and foolish.
Posted Thursday, June 22, 2006 12:51 AM
May 2006 Posts
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For months I have wondered which would be the sixth seat the Democrats could win to capture the Senate. Because Vice President Dick Cheney would, of course, break any 50-50 tie in favor of the GOP, the Democrats, down 55-45 now, have to gain six seats in the 2006 election to get control.The problem is that DeWine will beat Brown once the Taft administration tint to the race clears. Brown is one of the most liberal representatives in congress. Liberalism doesn't play well statewide anymore in Ohio. Period. Anyone thinking that Ohio is on the verge of turning blue anytime soon hasn't looked at the demographics. They also haven't taken a look at the superior GOTV operation that the GOP showed in 04. That GOTV operation is still intact. Look for Brown to lose by at least 8 points. DeWine will also be helped by Ken Blackwell's campaign.
Five prime Democratic targets have been obvious for some time. According to the latest Rasmussen polls, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) belongs on the endangered-species list, trailing Bob Casey Jr., his Democratic challenger, by 56-33. Also behind, although by lesser margins, are Sens. Mike DeWine (R-Ohio), who trails Rep. Sherrod Brown by 44-41, and Conrad Burns (R-Mont.), losing to Jon Tester by 48-44. Burns, handicapped by his association with Jack Abramoff, may be headed to defeat. DeWine, a former client of mine, has manifest campaign skills and could come back, but it doesn't look good.
While he's locked in a tight race now, expect Jim Talent to prevail, too. He's a very good campaigner and he's right on the issues.
While Democrats have done better in Montana than you might think, they aren't strong enough to get someone as liberal as Tester elected. This is where depth of candidates matters. While Tester was the best of the Democratic bunch, he still isn't a first-tier candidate. That'll matter far more than the Abramoff connection, which is a bigger deal inside the Beltway than in specific races.
Now the Zogby poll indicates that Harold Ford, the Democratic candidate to succeed Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) in Tennessee, is running a surprisingly strong race against his three possible Republican opponents. That could be the sixth seat. Zogby has Ford tied with former Rep. Ed Bryant, with each winning 42 percent of the vote, and trailing by a small margin, 43-41, against former Rep. Van Hilleary. A third possible candidate, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, leads Ford by 46-42.Tennessee has three top conservatives vying to replace Frist. Furthermore, Zogby's polling in former battleground states has been erratic at best. Tennessee is now a solidly red state. Ford had a shot until he went national in becoming Kerry's apologist in 04. Now he's seen as too lefty for Tennessee's taste.
Rasmussen also reports that Maria Cantwell (D-WA) has been falling of late in his polling, so that might be another Republican target. But neither Washington state nor New Jersey can be counted on for the Republican Party.I'd be surprised if Cantwell wins in November. Her poll numbers have been dropping each month for quite some time now. Her opponent, Mike McGavick, is self-funding his campaign and he's been gaining on Cantwell's statements have shown Washington voters that she's been a non-entity since joining the Senate.
It's worth noting that Morris doesn't even mention the best chances for Republicans to pick up the open Senate seats being vacated by Minnesota's Mark Dayton and Maryland's Paul Sarbanes.
I expect Mark Kennedy to beat Amy Klobuchar like a drum. She's the DFL-endorsed candidate but she got trounced in a Friday debate against Ford Bell. Bell forced Klobuchar into endorsing a single-payer healthcare plan that night. I'll guarantee that Kennedy's team will tie that around her neck the rest of the campaign. She's also announced that she'd vote to increase taxes on small businesses. Kennedy's campaign will tie her to that, too. They'll also characterize her as an out-of-touch liberal lefty. She's said that Mark Dayton is her political hero at a time when Dayton dropped out of the race because Kennedy would've drubbed him.
Sarbanes' seat is about to go red with Michael Steele, Maryland's first African American Lt. Gov., polling well. Further complicating the race for Democrats is that they're about to choose Ben Cardin over Kweisi Mfume, the second straight time they will have chosen a white man over a qualified black man for statewide office. Factor in RNC Chairman Mehlman's outreach work in Maryland and there's a strong chance that Republicans will win that race.
At the end of the day, look for Republicans to either finish even or possibly up 1 from where they're at now. Any thoughts that Democrats retaking the Senate are misguided and foolish.
Posted Thursday, June 22, 2006 12:51 AM
May 2006 Posts
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