More Minnesota Poll Propaganda

The Strib is putting out more DFL propaganda under the headline "Wide Gap a Surprise in Race For Senate, citing more 'results' from the Minnesota Poll. Here's a telling part of the article:

DFL Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar has opened up a strong early lead over GOP rival Mark Kennedy in a Minnesota Poll that shows Klobuchar with 50 percent of likely voters' support, compared with 31 percent for Kennedy. Much can change between now and November. But in what had widely been considered a close race, Klobuchar in midsummer has more support than Kennedy in nearly every demographic category: men, women, liberals, independents, lower- and upper-income Minnesotans, seniors, urban dwellers, suburbanites and outstaters.

Give me a break. Let's start with the most ridiculous cohort. There hasn't been a Democrat who's captured more support from men than a Republican. Everyone talks about the gender gap & think about Democrats having the edge with women. That's right as far as it goes. But what's also true is that Republicans annihilate Democrats with men. I'd bet that a real poll would show Mark Kennedy leading amongst men by 10-15 points.

I also don't buy that Ms. Klobuchar leads Mark amongst outstaters. Nationwide & in Minnesota, President Bush won in outstate areas by a wide margin. I recall watching Michael Barone on FNC talking about how strong the turnout was in the exurbs for Republicans. There's no way that a moonbat liberal city-dweller is going to win a majority of the votes in rural Minnesota. It won't be close. I'd bet the ranch on that.

It's also laughable that this pollitorial would say that tax-increasing Ms. Klobuchar is more popular than fiscally conservative Mark Kennedy amongst upper income earners. And it's laughable that Ms. Klobuchar is leading in the suburbs, which everyone knows is the GOP's stronghold.

You know that bloggers are getting to the Strib on this Minnesota Poll because they're quoting Rob Daves, director of the Minnesota Poll. Here's what he said:

"Criticism of the Minnesota Poll is nothing new," Daves said. He noted that the poll published Sunday drew on the same respondents and showed Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty leading with 43 percent over DFL rival Mike Hatch's 41 percent. That poll also showed Pawlenty ahead of Hatch in a number of the demographic categories where Kennedy trails Klobuchar. The methodology, Daves said, "is the same as 2004, when it was one of the most accurate polls in the nation."

That sounds awfully defensive, doesn't it? Daves is tapdancing around the truth in saying that the Minnesota Poll was "one of the most accurate polls in the nation." Shame on him saying that. It isn't even close to the truth. See Captain Ed's history of the Minnesota Poll's inaccuracies.

One of Kennedy's hurdles heading into the race is a comparatively high unfavorable rating among the poll's 813 likely voters, despite higher name recognition than Klobuchar. Kennedy, the Sixth District congressional representative, is viewed favorably by 37 percent of respondents, but unfavorably by 27 percent. Klobuchar, the Hennepin County attorney, is seen favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 12 percent.

How does that square with this statement?

"Klobuchar and Kennedy do well with voters from their own parties."

The only way that squares is if the Strib admits that they've oversampled Democrats like they usuall do. Actually, I know that that's what they did. They conducted this poll on July 6-11, which includes a weekend. When I watched the tracking polls in 2004, you could guarantee that Democrats got a 5 point bounce Monday morning. That bounce would disappear by Thursday. The best polls, Gallup & Rasmussen, don't poll on weekends.

I talk with lots of conservatives & they all say that they're looking forward to voting for Mark. I'm guessing that Mark's drawing 85-90 percent support with Republicans.

UPDATE: KvM & Captain Ed have posted great articles about the Minnesota Poll, too.

UPDATE II: The good folks at KvM have linked to this post. Gary Miller said that "Gary Gross should be commended for his new addition to the Minnesota political lexicon."

I appreciate Gary's kind words but I just stole the term from Rush's call screener, Snerdley. I wish I could take credit for it but honesty prevents me from doing that. (Let it never be said that I suffer from the same affliction that Matt Entenza is currently suffering from.)

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Posted Monday, July 17, 2006 11:43 AM

June 2006 Posts

Comment 1 by Mark at 17-Jul-06 11:20 AM

Your contentions aren't all true. While the Minnesota Poll is admittedly awful and has wildly overstated Klobuchar's support, you're simply wrong about a few things.

While Bush narrowly carried rural Minnesota in 2004, all but one Democrat carried the aggregate of outstate Minnesota in 2002 (that includes Walter Mondale, Buck Humphrey, Carol Johnson, and Mike Hatch....Roger Moe was the only Dem who fell short outstate). Keep in mind that outstate Minnesota's most populous county is St. Louis County, where Democrats win by an average margin of 30,000 votes. That's alot of votes for the GOP to overcome in smaller outstate counties.

I also wouldn't rule out Klobuchar's advantage in the suburbs. She's the prosecutor for Hennepin County, which is the wealthiest in the state and has a large number of blue-trending suburbs in its second and third rings...places like Edina and Plymouth where I'd bet money that Klobuchar is leading.

And while you're probably right to doubt Klobuchar's reported lean among men, there's very little chance the gender gap is as wide as you suggest. Exit polls showed Kerry beat Bush by one point among male voters in 2004.....far better than the 10-15 advantage you suggest Kennedy is pulling in over Klobuchar.

With all that said, Klobuchar is barely known outside of Hennepin County while Kennedy's base is in the rural and exurban regions of the state. I simply can't believe Klobuchar is besting Kennedy in the state's southwest quadrant or in the fastest-growing outer suburbs, especially considering that Kennedy has either currently or in the past represented these regions in Congress.

This is gonna be a close election....a classic battle between Old Minnesota and New Minnesota. Kennedy's biggest problem is that if Klobuchar gets 60% in her native Hennepin County (Kerry got 59%), he's mathematically eliminated. Klobuchar's biggest problem is the profile gap outstate and in the outer suburbs which is likely to yield supersized margins in those regions, dovetailing nicely (for him) with Pawlenty's popularity in that same area. It seems like this race is finally starting to get some of the notoriety its worthy of considering its exciting demographics.