Minnesota Poll Analysis
They've posted another Minnesota Poll, complete with 'analysis', in this morning's Strib.
Now that we've gotten the horserace numbers out of the way, let's examine their 'analysis':
There's history on that side, too. Part of the thing that got Jesse elected was that he agreed with Norm Coleman that we should cut taxes when we were running surpluses. Remember that Skip Humphrey was cast as a tax increaser. Humphrey finished third that year behind the guys who promised tax cuts. That's why Hatch is distancing himself from the tax increase reputation. That won't work because people won't believe that he won't reflexively increase taxes for this or that pet project.
On the other hand, Gov. Pawlenty won't deviate a bit from his general election campaign because of Sue Jeffers' presence in the GOP primary. I'm betting that this will be a 80-20 race.
In the end, expect Gov. Pawlenty to win re-election, though not by a huge margin.
Posted Sunday, July 16, 2006 1:01 AM
June 2006 Posts
Comment 1 by Dan at 16-Jul-06 06:34 PM
Among the 813 likely voters surveyed July 6 through Tuesday, 43 percent favored Republican Pawlenty and 41 percent backed DFLer Hatch. That's considered a dead heat, given a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson got the support of 5 percent, and the Green Party's Ken Pentel got 2 percent.These numbers don't track at all because Hatch & TPaw have approval ratings above 50 percent. There's no way both drop into the low 40's in the horserace. Frankly, I'm more than a bit skeptical, too, because the right track/wrong track number is pretty good, which definitely favors the incumbent. It's also worth noting that the poll was done July 6-11, meaning that a portion of that was done on a weekend. In the 2004 tracking polls, that was worth 5 points each weekend for the Democrat. Polling on weekends is a way that pollsters artificially tip them in Democrats' favor. Based on that alone, I'm betting that the polling that the MNGOP likely commissioned is showing Gov. Pawlenty up 5-7 points.
Now that we've gotten the horserace numbers out of the way, let's examine their 'analysis':
Pawlenty campaign manager Mike Krueger called the results "great news" and evidence that "momentum is shifting." Several polls have shown Hatch with a lead of a few percentage points over the past year. Krueger said Pawlenty will pull further ahead when Republicans emphasize that Hatch will "raise taxes" and "encourage illegal immigration."I'm apt to believe Krueger's analysis because we're in a time of surplus and people don't like the thought of tax increases when the state's running a surplus. They'll accept a minimal increase to balance a budget but Minnesotans won't accept an increase otherwise.
There's history on that side, too. Part of the thing that got Jesse elected was that he agreed with Norm Coleman that we should cut taxes when we were running surpluses. Remember that Skip Humphrey was cast as a tax increaser. Humphrey finished third that year behind the guys who promised tax cuts. That's why Hatch is distancing himself from the tax increase reputation. That won't work because people won't believe that he won't reflexively increase taxes for this or that pet project.
Pawlenty and Hatch face primary opposition, although most handicappers rate the challengers as long shots, especially Pawlenty's rival. State Sen. Becky Lourey, a favorite of the party's more liberal activists, is running against Hatch. Sue Jeffers, a bar owner and staunch fiscal conservative who faults Pawlenty for too much taxing and spending, is in the Republican primary.To compare the competition in the primaries is ridiculous. Lourey is causing Hatch all kinds of headaches. She's a liberal's liberal, which is where most of today's Democratic Party is. I don't think she'll win but I'd be surprised if she didn't damage him on a few issues. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a 60-40 primary win for Hatch, hardly a great launch for the fall campaign, with Hatch having to tack further left than he'd like.
On the other hand, Gov. Pawlenty won't deviate a bit from his general election campaign because of Sue Jeffers' presence in the GOP primary. I'm betting that this will be a 80-20 race.
In the end, expect Gov. Pawlenty to win re-election, though not by a huge margin.
Posted Sunday, July 16, 2006 1:01 AM
June 2006 Posts
Comment 1 by Dan at 16-Jul-06 06:34 PM
By my analysis of the situation, if the primary election were held to day, Jeffers would garner at least 30% of the vote. Not enough, but the primary isn't today. Polls like this really give no indication of what will happen on election day, but they do give some indication as to trends, and how much work is left to do.
