Lamont Has Peaked (And Other Musings)
That's my prediction and I'm sticking with it. That isn't my only prediction, either. Based on
this memo and on this week's thwarted terrorist attack, I'm willing to predict that Republicans will do much better than the Agenda Media are speculating. Let's look at the Lamont prediction first.
Lamont now has to become more than a 'hate-Bush' sideshow for the Nutroots gang now. After Martin Peretz' attack on him, he'll now be scrutinized by voters who won't automatically buy into his anti-Bush diatribe. Independents will ask him how he'll protect us from terrorist attacks, which he hasn't shown any seriousness on. They'll ask him how he'll protect us from Iran getting nukes. His past answer is dangerous and delusional:
It's important that people realize that these elections must be viewed through a different prism in the aftermath of the thwarted terrorist plot. People have noticed that there are still terrorists who still want to inflict alot of damage to the U.S. They know that Joe Lieberman is the only Democrat who doesn't want to strip away the Patriot Act, the TSP, SWIFT surveillance and other terror-fighting tools that were employed in thwarting this week's attacks.
Finally, let's look at what this RNC memo says:
I'd also suggest that John Murtha is more than a little vulnerable. In fact, I'd say he's facing an uphill battle at this point, due in large part to his indicting and convicting the Haditha Marines this past May. Eighteen percent of PA-12's population are active duty, reserve and retired military people. Murtha's playing judge, jury and executioner doesn't sit well with these military people. Murtha won't get much support from the military voters like he's gotten in the past for that reason alone.
There's alot that can happen in the next 80+ days but just dodging a major terrorist attack is the thing that voters will be riveted to.
Posted Saturday, August 12, 2006 10:18 PM
July 2006 Posts
No comments.
Lamont now has to become more than a 'hate-Bush' sideshow for the Nutroots gang now. After Martin Peretz' attack on him, he'll now be scrutinized by voters who won't automatically buy into his anti-Bush diatribe. Independents will ask him how he'll protect us from terrorist attacks, which he hasn't shown any seriousness on. They'll ask him how he'll protect us from Iran getting nukes. His past answer is dangerous and delusional:
Here, for instance, is his take on what should be done about Iran's nuclear-weapons venture: "We should work diplomatically and aggressively to give them reasons why they don't need to build a bomb, to give them incentives. We have to engage in very aggressive diplomacy. I'd like to bring in allies when we can. I'd like to use carrots as well as sticks to see if we can change the nature of the debate."Here's Martin Peretz' take on Lamont's policy:
Oh, I see. He thinks the problem is that they do not understand, and so we should explain things to them, and then they will do the right thing.Lamont's win also puts a burr under Lieberman's proverbial saddle. He didn't take Lamont seriously, causing him to not attack the instant Lamont's campaign started gaining momentum. He's under no such illusion this time. He's already started going after Lamont, which will instantly damage Lamont. As I've shown, Lamont is clueless on foreign policy matters, which will become readily apparent to everyone outside the Sheehan/MoveOn/Deaniac/Bush-hating wing of the Democratic Party. Once a first time challenger like Lamont isn't taken seriously on important issues, it's downhill after that.
It's important that people realize that these elections must be viewed through a different prism in the aftermath of the thwarted terrorist plot. People have noticed that there are still terrorists who still want to inflict alot of damage to the U.S. They know that Joe Lieberman is the only Democrat who doesn't want to strip away the Patriot Act, the TSP, SWIFT surveillance and other terror-fighting tools that were employed in thwarting this week's attacks.
Finally, let's look at what this RNC memo says:
Overall support for President Bush and congressional Republicans from the Republican Base is very strong. The generic congressional vote from Republicans is an overwhelming 84% to 6%, within sampling error of what we found for the 2004 elections. An equally impressive 88% to 11% majority of Republicans approve of the way the President is handling his job.Contrary to what the Agenda Media would have you believe, Republicans are still supportive of President Bush. Furthermore, it appears as though they're planning on voting this November in large quantities. Based on this information, I'd suggest that few House Republicans are in serious danger, meaning that Democrats will have to pick up seats from open seats. That won't happen in MN-6, where Michele Bachmann will win, though the margin of victory is still to be determined. The only GOP incumbents that appear to be in serious trouble are Charles Taylor in North Carolina, and the Connecticut trio of Rob Simmons, Christopher Shays and Nancy Johnson. I suspect that Joe Lieberman's running as an independent will strengthen GOP turnout in Connecticut. They'll turn out because they know their votes will be needed to beat Lamont, which is their nightmare scenario.
Intended turnout from the Base also is extremely high. Eighty-one percent (81%) say they are "almost certain" to vote this November, and another 14% say they are "very likely" to vote. This, too, is within sampling error of the intended turnout of Republicans for the 2004 elections. In our test of 50 issues to mobilize the Republican Base for the 2006 elections, we identified 18 of them, falling into seven general message areas, as having the best potential. Three additional issues also have good potential for mobilizing the Base.
I'd also suggest that John Murtha is more than a little vulnerable. In fact, I'd say he's facing an uphill battle at this point, due in large part to his indicting and convicting the Haditha Marines this past May. Eighteen percent of PA-12's population are active duty, reserve and retired military people. Murtha's playing judge, jury and executioner doesn't sit well with these military people. Murtha won't get much support from the military voters like he's gotten in the past for that reason alone.
There's alot that can happen in the next 80+ days but just dodging a major terrorist attack is the thing that voters will be riveted to.
Posted Saturday, August 12, 2006 10:18 PM
July 2006 Posts
No comments.
