Hillary Can't Win
That's what Peter Brown is suggesting in
this article for RealClearPolitics. While I generally don't put much stock in horserace polls this far out, Professor Brown makes these interesting points:
As for Ohio, John Kerry lost by 100,000 votes when the economy was sputtering there. Does a Democrat have a chance of flipping Ohio when the economy is rebounding? Possibly but I wouldn't be betting much on it. The argument could be made that Hillary will be a better candidate, which might make a bit of a difference.
If Hillary can't flip either Ohio or Florida, then it gets alot dicier. She'd have to hold traditionally red New Hampshire, which went for Kerry in 04. Most say he wouldn't have won that if he wasn't from neighboring Massachusetts, something I agree with. Suppose Hillary flips Iowa and New Mexico and holds New Hampshire. That still gives the Republican 273 electoral votes. Close but no cigar for Hillary.
But those scenarios only hold if everything else from 04 stays the same. What happens if George Allen gets nominated? Does that put Maryland in play? What if Mitt Romney is nominated? I'd bet that that gives him Massachusetts and probably New Hampshire, with a decent shot at winning his dad's state of Michigan to boot. What happens if Republicans put together a Romney-Allen ticket?
It's hard seeing how Democrats get to 270 in this environment.
Posted Monday, June 5, 2006 9:27 AM
May 2006 Posts
Comment 1 by Distress Signal at 27-Sep-06 02:31 PM
Quinnipiac also matched up Sen. Clinton against two other 2008 potential Republican presidential aspirants, Sen. George Allen of Virginia and Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. She defeated Allen 46-40 in a survey taken in April and Romney 50-39 percent in a May poll. Both Romney and Allen are little known outside their own states, and the survey question that asked voters to decide between them and Sen. Clinton supplied only their party label and current or last office held.Then there's this:
There is an oft-quoted axiom in politics that when a well-known candidate is matched against an unknown in a poll far before an election, the better-known is probably at or close to their maximum support level.
Even though Sen. Clinton has sought to recast herself as a political moderate, the former first lady still has a serious problem in "red state' America," as the new poll results show.And finally:
Of course, Sen. Clinton's supporters will accurately point out that she does not need Florida to win the White House. All she has to do is carry the same states John Kerry did in 2004 and add Ohio. But over the past three presidential elections, the Democratic vote percentage in Ohio has averaged only 2 percent more than in Florida. That's why this preliminary data about Sen. Clinton's popularity against two relative unknowns matter.Frankly, this isn't good news for Democrats in 08, though I don't think it'll deter them from giving Hillary the nomination. The truth is that Florida is much redder than people think. Look at the statewide officeholders. Look at the legislature. It isn't that Democrats are non-existant there; it's that they can't break the 50 percent barrier there anymore. Bill Clinton only did because of Social Security. The only reason why Gore came close was because Joe Lieberman lived in Florida that October.
As for Ohio, John Kerry lost by 100,000 votes when the economy was sputtering there. Does a Democrat have a chance of flipping Ohio when the economy is rebounding? Possibly but I wouldn't be betting much on it. The argument could be made that Hillary will be a better candidate, which might make a bit of a difference.
If Hillary can't flip either Ohio or Florida, then it gets alot dicier. She'd have to hold traditionally red New Hampshire, which went for Kerry in 04. Most say he wouldn't have won that if he wasn't from neighboring Massachusetts, something I agree with. Suppose Hillary flips Iowa and New Mexico and holds New Hampshire. That still gives the Republican 273 electoral votes. Close but no cigar for Hillary.
But those scenarios only hold if everything else from 04 stays the same. What happens if George Allen gets nominated? Does that put Maryland in play? What if Mitt Romney is nominated? I'd bet that that gives him Massachusetts and probably New Hampshire, with a decent shot at winning his dad's state of Michigan to boot. What happens if Republicans put together a Romney-Allen ticket?
It's hard seeing how Democrats get to 270 in this environment.
Posted Monday, June 5, 2006 9:27 AM
May 2006 Posts
Comment 1 by Distress Signal at 27-Sep-06 02:31 PM
This will be (and I haven't been wrong yet) a Romney-Clinton hullabaloo. Clinton will lose miserably but not as horrendous as McCarthy or Mondale. Romney WILL carry Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Michigan along with Ohio and Florida. I predict the "Lamp-throwing" Hillary will get 166 electoral votes--that's all folks!
