Democrats Eye November Landslide

That's the headline of Ron Fournier's latest propaganda piece for the AP. Let's take a look at the article.

Republicans are three steps from a November shellacking, each a grim possibility if habitually divided Democrats get their acts together.

First step: Voters must focus on the national landscape on Nov. 7 rather than local issues and personalities that usually dominate midterm elections. That would sting Republicans, who trail badly in national polls.

Actually, this is 'conventional wisdom' at its worst. Nationalizing this election on the issue of who's serious about fighting the GWOT casts Democrats in an awful light, whether it's Dean's "We can't win", Pelosi's endorsement of Murtha's "immediate withdrawal" plan or Teddy Kennedy's quagmire.

Nationalizing the economy would also be a smart move on Republicans' part. Unemployment is low, productivity is high, home ownership, both overall and amongst minorities, is at record levels. Peoples' 401(k) plans are growing. The deficit is dropping, with it likely to come in under $300 billion this year. And the Bush tax cuts are working.

Nationalizing this election on immigration and border security is a winner for Republicans if they get a solid bill out of conference. People see that Kennedy, Dodd and Durbin aren't serious about border security. If they had their way, they'd start with amnesty and then work to create open borders. Durbin was on FNS yesterday and he's said that the Dodd Amendment, which requires we consult with Mexico on the national, regional and local levels, is the way to go. Jim Sensenbrenner and the vast majority of Republicans say that's nonsense. The Kennedy/Dodd/Durbin approach simply isn't where most people are at with immigration.

Second step: Voters must be so angry at Washington and politics in general that an anti-incumbent, throw-the-bums-out mentality sweeps the nation. That would wound Republicans, the majority party.

This "throw-the-bums-out mentality" sweeping "the nation" is misleading at best and intellectually dishonest at worst. The truth is that, for the most part, people like their incumbent fine but would love to throw out someone else's incumbent. There's nothing in the polling I've seen that says a "throw-the-bums-out mentality" is sweeping the nation.

Third step: Americans must view the elections as a referendum on President Bush and the GOP-led Congress, siding with Democrats in a symbolic vote against the Iraq war, rising gas prices, economic insecurity and the nagging sense that the nation is on the wrong track. That would destroy Republicans, sweeping them from power in one or both chambers and making Bush a lame duck. Less than six months out, most Democratic and Republican strategists say the first two elements are in place for now, a national, anti-incumbent mind-set, and all signs point to the third.

That isn't happening. Clearly, here in Minnesota, people are seeing how inept Amy Klobuchar is. By the time Election Day arrives, they'll see Mark Kennedy as the superior candidate because he's the only serious candidate in that race. Michele Bachmann, running to replace Mark in the U.S. House, faces child advocate Patty Wetterling. As I've said in the past, Wetterling's done some good work on child safety issues but her positions make her unelectable. In a religious, conservative district, Ms. Wetterling is pro choice, pro gay rights and supports getting all American troops home by this Thanksgiving.

The truth is that Republicans have done a better job of recruiting candidates than have Democrats. Candidates and campaigns matter, a lesson lost on the moonbat left and Mr. Fournier.

"The fear I have as a Democrat is that if we are making this solely a referendum on the Republicans, we are not giving people a reason to turn out," said Democratic strategist Chris Lehane of California. "Having said that, I think all these other elements are so bad for the Republicans that 'Had enough?' should be enough."

That's a major mistake, Mr. Lehane. That's a fatal mistake, in fact. It might be different if this were more like 1994, when a perfect storm happened. That year, people had a positive image of Republicans and a bad image of Democrats. This year, most people are disgusted with both parties to a certain extent. The people don't think Democrats are more trustworthy ethically than Republicans. The people don't think that Democrats are more trustworthy in setting war policy than Republicans.

Inside the DNC, some officials point to internal polls that show voters holding both the Democratic and Republican parties in equally low esteem. The fact that most voters, when forced to choose, tell pollsters they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress is not a sign of strength, these officials say. Rather, it's evidence that voters are simply giving Democrats a chance to win them over, a chance that can be blown unless Democrats stand for something other than attacking Bush, these officials said.

The generic poll is useless. It should be banned from appearing in articles until Democrats reestablish some level of coherence. The truth is that the generic numbers drop precipitously when actual Democrats are plugged into the equation. At this point, 'generic' Democrats poll far better because each voter can 'create' their dream candidate. That stops the minute they see some of these moonbat candidates. That sends them running for the hills.

NATIONAL ELECTION: Among the two dozen Republican and Democratic strategists interviewed in the last two weeks, there was unanimity that the fall campaigns will be national in scope. Voters will give local issues less attention than normal, a bad sign for the GOP. "If we keep it local we win; if they nationalize issues, they win," said Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis.

Saul, keeping this local in Michigan is smart politics because Jennifer Granholm's stunning failure and Debbie Stabenow's "dangerous incompetence".

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Posted Monday, May 29, 2006 5:18 PM

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