Bogus Polls Alert

Earlier today, I read a Detroit News poll that seemed to be an outliar so I checked further. Here's what caused me to question it:
Granholm's job approval ratings have shifted dramatically since June. In a June 13 poll, only 40 percent approved of her job as governor. In the latest survey, 51 percent give her passing grades for the job she's doing. The governor's personal favorability rating was at 58 percent in this poll, 6 percentage points higher than in June.
I'm skeptical of any poll that shows an 11 point jump in an incumbent's JA rating over time. I'm even more skeptical when that jump happens in a two month. If it's possible, I'm more skeptical now. It's also worth noting that Granholm's ratings were in the disaster range because of Michigan's freefalling economy. Nothing's happened to change that reality.

Here's why I'm so skeptical: I wanted to check the poll's internals so I emailed Mark Hornbeck, who wrote part of the article, asking where I could find the internals. Here's his response:
We don't share any polling data other than what is published...if you have questions about methodology, I'd encourage you to contact EPIC/MRA in Lansing.
One of the things that I've always demanded before believing that a poll is credible is that they publish the breakdowns. While they aren't exactly hiding the information, they aren't being totally open either.

The good news about the Michigan governor's race is that Dick DeVos is in good position to beat failed Jennifer Granholm. This coincides with Debbie Stabenow's decline in the Senate race. Stabenow was leading the Republican by double digits but now she leads Mike Bouchard by only 5 points.

EPIC/MRA doesn't have a great reputation for accuracy. I've read other bloggers who've said that it's usually off by 5-10 points, always in the Democrat's favor.

Kinda sounds like the Minnesota Poll, doesn't it?

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Cross-posted at California Conservative

Posted Wednesday, August 16, 2006 5:33 PM

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