September 30, 2010
Sep 30 06:53 Defending the Indefensible: They're Defending MPR's Polling? Sep 30 09:01 What Leadership Doesn't Look Like Sep 30 17:41 Walz's Troubles Reality Related Sep 30 22:13 BREAKING NEWS: NFIB Endorses Cravaack
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Prior Years: 2006 2007 2008 2009
Defending the Indefensible: They're Defending MPR's Polling?
According to this article , people are actually trying to defend the MPR-Humphrey Institute poll. The more they defend it, the less sense their arguments make.
Republicans think this new poll is flawed, arguing MPR and the Humphrey Institute interviewed more Democrats this time than in their survey a month ago. The pollsters say that's not the case. Rather more Democrats are now identifying themselves as likely voters than Republicans are, another sign the party could be gaining some steam.
If Larry Jacobs thinks that Democrats are more fired up than Republicans, then he's delusional. Place after place, article after article tells me that Republicans can't wait for voting to start. By contrast, there's less enthusiasm for the DFL. Though the enthusiasm gap isn't as big in Minnesota as in other states, it's still there.
But Republican Party of Minnesota assistant chair Michael Brodkorb counters, "We're seeing the exact opposite. All indications are Democrats are still having an enthusiasm gap here in Minnesota. They're still having concerns about rallying behind Mark Dayton's candidacy."
According to professor Jacobs that's partly true, as Dayton's numbers among Democrats and Independents still aren't great. But Emmer's Republican support is only at 59 percent, a cause for concern among the GOP. And tom Horner could drop off if his numbers don't spike soon.
I noted in this post that Rasmussen's latest polling says Tom Emmer's support amongst Republicans is high:
Eighty-eight percent of Minnesota Republicans support Emmer, a state legislator who has been endorsed by Sarah Palin.
There's no way I'll trust Jacobs' numbers over Scott Rasmussen's. Jacobs is also asking me to believe that Republicans aren't united. That's impossible for me, especially after Marty Seifert's unifying gesture at the endorsing convention. Here in Central Minnesota, the unity between the 4 different BPOU's is outstanding.
There's no reason for Republicans to be disinterested. Recently, Randy Demmer and Lee Byberg qualified for the NRCC's Young Guns program. Chip Cravaack is giving Jim Oberstar alot of heartburn. I'm hearing that Chip will get a major endorsement Thursday. Check back to this blog this morning for additional information.
First, the fact that the NRCC has upgraded those races says that they've noticed that they're running good campaigns. Second, the fact that the NRCC is injecting money into these races should do nothing except fire up the faithful the rest of the way.
Despite all these positive developments, Larry Jacobs is telling us that GOP enthusiasm is shrinking? Oh yeah, that makes sense. I always get depressed when I get tons of good news.
There's another thing that Jacobs' poll isn't measuring: people aren't taking Dayton and Horner seriously after putting together budgets that don't balance and policies that don't create jobs. In fact, Dayton's jobs policies were born in the 1970's and 80's. That isn't how you build a 21st Century economy. That's how you fund a 20th Century government.
Independents aren't lining up to be led by a man who wants to raise taxes to build a 20th Century economy.
The MPR-Humphrey Institute poll is junk. It isn't worth taking seriously.
Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 6:53 AM
No comments.
What Leadership Doesn't Look Like
When Speaker Pelosi broke the 209-209 tie to adjourn until after the elections, it marked one of the most pathetic displays of leadership (I use that term loosely) in U.S. House history. It's shameful that the Democrats refused to even draft legislation on their 2 primary responsibilities: the budget and extending the Bush tax cuts.
Paul Ryan, who will be the Budget Committee chairman next January, isn't amused with the Democrats' abdication of leadership:
"The fiscal year will end much as it began, with Congress exacerbating our unsustainable budget trajectory. Consumed with their reckless borrowing and spending spree, House Democrats called it quits after failing to send any of the annual Appropriations bills to the President's desk and failing to even propose a budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Operating with no budget to prioritize taxpayer dollars, Congress agreed to a $1.1 trillion Continuing Resolution to keep the government from shutting down.
"Making matters worse, Democratic leaders failed to take action to stop looming tax increases from hitting families and small businesses. A growing bipartisan consensus stands united against the Democratic leaders' refusal to prevent across the board tax increases amidst continued economic hardships, fostering greater economic uncertainty and stifling job creation.
"This year's budget breakdown is particularly troubling given the $1.3 trillion deficit and $13 trillion debt. The unemployment rate remains too high and economic growth remains too low. Congress missed a critical opportunity to stop the looming tax hikes, restrain the explosive growth of government spending, and advance an agenda of real reform."
If the Bush tax cuts expire, they'll represent the biggest tax increase in U.S. history. What's worse is that their expiration will trigger the next round of layoffs and the next recession.
Apparently, Speaker Pelosi and her leadership team don't care about setting intelligent spending priorities, just like it's apparent that they don't care about preventing the next recession.
This is the message that Republicans should highlight from dawn's early light to the last ray of sunshine each day for the rest of the campaign. This level of irresponsibility is both stunning and pathetic. Democrats shouldn't be left near the levers of power anytime soon, preferably for the next generation.
People who think that this isn't going to be an historic year for Republicans either aren't paying attention or they're utterly clueless. With huge majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats didn't have an agenda that the American people approved of. Their agenda for this term of Congress essentially consisted of the stimulus, passing a health care bill that was hated by employers and employees alike and passing a budget blueprint in 2009 that averaged trillion dollar deficits for a decade.
The Democrats' policies are undermining the current health care system while giving job creators incentives galore to not invest in their business or hire new employees.
Congressman Ryan published this report to explain why it's important to not let any of the current tax laws expire:
To understand the subject properly, the following points are critical:
- Higher Taxes Stifle Growth. Higher tax rates will further damage a weak economy. Tax increases not only drain economic resources, but also stifle incentives to greater productivity and investment. The scheduled January tax increases could reduce employment growth by as many as 1.2 million jobs, based on Congressional Budget Office estimates.
- Hikes Cannot Catch the President's Spending. Spending in the President's budget surges to record levels, and by decade's end will consume more than one-fourth of total U.S. economic resources. The pace of spending is so rapid that even raising taxes nearly $4 trillion over the next 10 years would not catch up.
- Tax Relief Did Not Cause Today's Deficits. With the full 2001/2003 tax relief provisions implemented, Federal revenue rose to 18.5 percent of gross domestic product in fiscal year 2007, well above the 50-year historical average of 18 percent. Revenue plunged after that because of a financial crisis and a deep recession, not because of tax relief.
- The Tax Debate Is Upside-Down. Baseline budgeting gives the false impression that simply keeping tax rates the same as they are today is somehow a new tax cut that will increase deficits and must be "paid for." It is nonsensical to make taxpayers "pay for" simply avoiding a tax increase.
- Tax Burdens Already Are Skewed Toward Upper Incomes. Limiting tax increases to "the rich," as the President and the Democratic Leadership in Congress propose, will create additional barriers to job-creating investments, and will further distort the distribution of U.S. tax burdens, in which those earning in the top 10 percent of income pay more than 70 percent of Federal income taxes. In addition, complaints about current tax laws providing "tax cuts for the rich" ignore the impact raising the top tax rates will have on small businesses, the most vigorous job producers in the country.
This piece of information can't be overlooked:
The administration wants to raise the top two individual tax rates to capture more tax revenue for the government's coffers. Yet the historical data clearly show that tax revenue is not necessarily correlated with tax rates. Instead, government tax revenue is highly correlated with economic growth. Over the past 50 years, the top individual tax rate in the U.S. has ranged from a high of 91 percent to a low of 28 percent, but individual tax revenue has remained remarkably steady, moving more in tandem with economic growth than these tax rate shifts. For instance, during the 1980s, while the top marginal tax rate was reduced from roughly 70 percent to 30 percent, individual tax revenues remained fairly constant as a share of the economy. In the latter part of the 1990s, the top marginal tax rate stayed constant, yet individual tax revenue reached a record high in response to robust rates of GDP growth. Revenue as a percent of GDP has tended to fall as a result of recessions.
In addition to not getting anything done with the budget, Democrat leadership kept insisting that "the rich" weren't paying their fair share. (Minnesotans are familiar with that mantra thanks to Sen. Dayton's job-killing agenda.) Speaker Pelosi is intent on killing more jobs than she already has. From a purely political perspective, Democrats have given Republicans across the nation a nightstick to beat them bloody with. If I was advising Republican candidates, cutting spending and extending the Bush tax cuts would be the only things my candidates would talk about in their stump speeches. Earlier this year, President Obama proposed a sham spending freeze. During the presidential debates in 2008, then-Sen. Obama said he'd use a scalpel to cut out wasteful spending. These things have been exposed as shams. When Republicans retake the majority, they should forget about spending freezes and cutting with a scalpel. Not freezes, just cuts. Not with a scalpel but with a meat cleaver. Thanks to the Democrats reign of irresponsibility, drastic measures are required. It's up to the Republicans to jumpstart the economy and get spending under control. The Democrats had their chance and blew it. This November, they'll pay the price for their irresponsible behavior.
Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 9:01 AM
Comment 1 by J. Ewing at 30-Sep-10 02:27 PM
It was pointed out today on another blog that one effect of rapid adjournment was to put off the boiling ethics investigations of prominent Democrats.
It is a surprising turnabout on the old adage that "neither liberty nor property is safe while the Congress is in session." Here, our taxes will go up because
Congress is NOT in session.
Walz's Troubles Reality Related
According to this CNN article , Tim Walz wants to be back to defend himself against the Republicans' scurrilous attacks:
"I'm always more comfortable being at home," said Minnesota Democratic Rep. Tim Walz, who is in a close race for a third term. "Especially now making the case for why they should give me another shot at it and I think when I'm not there it's easier to say things that I can't defend."
Rep. Walz makes it sound like it's difficult to criticize him, that it's impossible to criticize him without making things up. In the land of reality, it's pretty easy to originate substantive criticisms of him. Let's start with Walz campaigning as " an independent leader for southern Minnesota ."
Tim Walz has carried Speaker Pelosi's water since he got there. This session, Walz voted for 'the trifecta' of Obama's failed stimulus bill, Obamacare and Cap and Tax.
The only things the stimulus bill did was keep bureaucrats working and adding tens of billions of dollars to the deficit. Thankfully, Cap and Tax didn't get a hearing in the Senate so it withered away, hopefully forever. Obamacare is a disaster. It didn't bend the cost curve down like was promised. It's adding to the deficit. Worst of all, it's destroying the doctor-patient relationship.
What Rep. Walz means is that his spin isn't as effective when it's contained in a press release as when it's delivered face-to-face. The reality is that Tim Walz isn't the independent leader for southern Minnesota that he pretended to be. He's been one of the most reliable water-carriers for Speaker Pelosi over the past 4 years.
Worst of all, he's been a reckless spender because he's been a guy who's consistently voted with the environmental special interests. That's why he voted against his district in voting for Cap and Tax.
Tim Walz's problem isn't his inability to refute Randy Demmer's arguments. Rep. Walz's problem is that he's voted against his constituents' priorities too often.
Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 5:41 PM
Comment 1 by walter hanson at 01-Oct-10 01:54 PM
Gary:
I think you need to turn your term trifecta to quintfecta since he also voted for the adjournment without resolving the tax rates for next year.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
BREAKING NEWS: NFIB Endorses Cravaack
This afternoon, the NFIB announced that they're endorsing Chip Cravaack in his bid to unseat longtime Congressman Oberstar:
Today the National Federation of Independent Business, America's leading small business association, announced its full support and endorsement of Minnesota's 8th U.S. Congressional District challenger, Chip Cravaack.
A third-generation retired Naval Reserve officer, Cravaack has issued strong positions on policies that would strengthen the nation's small firms and rein in federal government hindrance of the free enterprise system.
"Captain Chip Cravaack believes strongly that small business can lead America out of this recession if the government will get out of the way and let Main Street do what it does best: create jobs and grow the economy," said Lisa Goeas, NFIB's vice president for political operations. "He will fight for the rights of small businesses to enjoy the time-honored idea of secret ballots if faced with labor union elections and stand firm against economically-devastating schemes such as job-killing 'cap and trade' pollution deals."
Offering Minnesota's 8th District a fresh approach of limited government and fiscal responsibility, Cravaack would be a friend to small business in a state with more than 121,000 small employers. Nationally, small businesses generate more than half of the non-farm Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and have created more than 60 percent of the net-new jobs in the United States over the past 15 years.
NFIB's endorsement boosts Cravaack's campaign with significant grassroots backing by Minnesota's small business community, which actively recruit friends, family members and acquaintances to vote in large numbers on Election Day.
Cravaack's endorsement comes from NFIB's Save America's Free Enterprise Trust (SAFE), the association's political action committee, which bases candidates' support on key small business issues such as healthcare, taxes, and labor and regulatory issues.
The choice for 8th District voters. On the day that NFIB announces their endorsement of Chip Cravaack for supporting small businesses and the free market system, Rep. Jim Oberstar announced the 'success' of ARRA in Minnesota :
Construction is under way or completed on $677 million in Minnesota highway, transit, and wastewater projects funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure announced today.
This week the committee released its latest periodic report on the implementation of Recovery Act transportation and infrastructure programs. Nationally, the report shows that a total of $33.9 billion has been invested in 18,365 formula projects now under construction or completed, accounting for 89 percent of the total allocation for such work.
"The transportation and infrastructure investments provided by the Recovery Act have been a tremendous success. They have helped stem the tide of job losses from the worst economic crisis facing the nation since the Great Depression," Congressman Jim Oberstar, chairman of the Transportation Committee. "This success underscores the immediate need to provide additional funding for infrastructure."
Rep. Oberstar's announcement proves that he's clueless about the economy. Only someone enamored with DC's pork economy would think that the Stimulus is a success. While it's true that a number of these infrastructure projects are important, it's equally true that getting the private sector humming would have a much more profound, long-lasting effect than stimulus spending could ever have.
The NFIB criticized Congress for abandoning small businesses:
Congress has once again failed small business. At a time when small business owners desperately need some certainty, their elected leaders have decided to skip town to focus on keeping their own jobs instead of voting on legislation to extend the current tax rates.
Postponing this critical vote means that all small businesses and their customers are facing an extraordinary tax hike at the end of the year. This real possibility of a major tax increase intensifies the uncertainty facing small businesses who now don't know what their tax liability will be in 2011. Congress should not expect small businesses to run profitable enterprises this way. This type of mismanagement may work in Washington, but it certainly doesn't hold water on Main Street.
Raising taxes on our nation's job creators when they are trying to get through these difficult economic times is simply bad policy. There is bipartisan agreement on Capitol Hill to extend all of the tax rates and leading economists have said that the best thing Washington could do to help the economy is to extend all of the current individual rates. With so much agreement on this issue, it's extremely disappointing that Congress is leaving town without having an up-or-down vote on extending the current tax rates.
Jim Oberstar was one of the representatives who voted to adjourn without addressing this important issue. Without knowing what their taxes will be, small businesses won't expand their businesses or hire additional employees.
Rep. Oberstar can't say with any credibility that he's pro jobs but support doing nothing to help small businesses. Rep. Oberstar has been in DC so long that he's forgotten that it's small businesses that drive Minnesota's, and this nation's, small businesses. He's got a DC-centric mindset to the point that he's ignored Mainstreet Minnesota's priorities.
While it's true that they appreciate well-maintained infrastructure, it's more true that they appreciate a thriving, private sector economy. Rep. Oberstar's vote for Cap and Tax and Obamacare are votes that will cripple small businesses. His willingness to let the small business tax cuts expire is additional proof that Rep. Oberstar isn't a friend to the job creators that make Minnesota's economy thrive.
The voters in MN-08 have a clear choice this election. They can vote for the entrenched incumbent who's turned his back on Minnesota's job creators or they can vote for Chip Cravaack, the man that the NFIB thinks will help restore Minnesota's prosperity.
Based on what I'm hearing, steelworkers, mineworkers and entrepreneurs alike are abandoning Rep. Oberstar because he's lost touch with Minnesota's priorities.
Good riddance.
Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 10:13 PM
Comment 1 by Bruce at 01-Oct-10 12:47 PM
As I've stated many times on many local blogs, like most businesses do, the owners of PolyMet are watching all of the elections in the country, but especially here in MN.
I have many associates that work with the mining industry, so I have credible sources to state that if MN elects Mark Dayton, that mine will never open. The rules and regulations hoops, taxes and out right stupidity of our legislature, makes them crazy enough to say screw you! We're outta here!
