November 7, 2006 Posts
02:42 My Predictions 11:47 Have You Voted? 12:13 Democrats Playing By The Rules 16:02 Kohut on Tightening Generic Ballots, etc. 16:56 Good Luck & I'm Praying For You 18:19 Chill Out Erick 18:45 Diana Irey Says "Thank You" 19:41 Hacker Attacks Bouchard Website
My Predictions
Let's start with the House since that's where most pundits are predicting doom for the GOP. I'll work off the RCP chart provided here:
GOP Seats
Leans Dem (13)
AZ-8: Open (Kolbe)
Gary Sez: Graf wins on immigration issue. Tucson's budget getting hit hard paying for schooling, health care of illegal immigrants.
CO-7: Open (Beauprez)
Gary Sez: Definitely vulnerable. This could stay in GOP column with strong GOTV operation, which wouldn't surprise me.
OH-18: Open (Ney)
Gary Sez: Joy Padgett is a fiscal conservative who'd keep taxes low, spending under control and who's right on the immigration issue. Additional factor: Ney won in 04 with 65+ percent of vote. Demographics still matter. GOP Hold.
PA-7: Weldon
Gary Sez: This is likely lost.
IN-8: Hostettler
Gary Sez: Hostettler's had a history of close races & he's always won. Will this be the year he doesn't win? Possible but don't count Hostettler out because of the GOP's GOTV operation.
IA-1: Open (Nussle)
Gary Sez: I suspect that this will tip in the GOP's favor. The only reliable polling on this race was one done for the NRCC in early October showing Whalen leading by 8. Since then, the election nationwide is trending strongly GOP so I see no reason to believe Braley will win this one.
NY-24: Open (Boehlert)
Gary Sez: Arcuri's got serious ethical problems, meaning he's fighting uphill at best. I'm betting this is a GOP Hold.
NY-20: Sweeney
Gary Sez: GOP Hold here. Sienna ran 2 polls; 10/17/06 Siena College R +14 53% 39%; 11/2/06 Siena College D +3 46% 43% 628 LV. Almost all other polling showed Sweeney with solid leads. I also find it impossible to believe that an incumbent loses 17 points in 2 weeks without making a noteworthy gaffe or via scandal. That hasn't happened.
PA-10: Sherwood
Gary Sez: Likely Dem pickup although President Bush's stop put the wood to Democrats on taxes and terrorism.
TX-22: Open (DeLay)
Gary Sez: Sekula-Gibbs wins this one.
NC-11: Taylor
Gary Sez: Tight race but Taylor pulls it out.
OH-15: Pryce
Gary Sez: Likely Dem pickup.
FL-16: Open (Foley)
Gary Sez: GOP enjoys punching Foley for Joe. Joe wins.
Toss Up (14)
NH-2: Bass
Gary Sez: GOP Hold
IN-2: Chocola
Gary Sez: Most polling shows Chocola trailing within MOE. A strong GOTV effort will put Chocola over the top.
FL-13: Open (Harris)
Gary Sez: This is still Jeb's state & he's built a model GOTV operation. GOP Hold.
NM-1: Wilson
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents tipping GOP's way after Kerry's "botched joke."
OH-1: Chabot
Gary Sez: Might be pulled under by GOP scandals. If they don't, Chabot wins this.
CT-4: Shays
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry's 'botched joke.'
IN-9: Sodrel
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry's 'botched joke.'
IL-6: Open (Hyde)
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry's 'botched joke.'
PA-6: Gerlach
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry's 'botched joke.'
AZ-5: Hayworth
Gary Sez: Hayworth wins by solid margin, probably in 6-8 point range.
CT-5: Johnson
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry's 'botched joke.' Also being helped by GOP voting for Lieberman.
CA-11: Pombo
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry's 'botched joke.'
OH-2: Schmidt
Gary Sez: Ran a lackluster campaign for special election but won over lots of people for giving John Murtha what for about Marines never quit. Schmidt wins this one.
KY-3: Northup
Gary Sez: Anne Northup keeps winning.
Democratic Seats
Toss Up (2)
GA-12: Barrow
Gary Sez: GOP win.
GA-8: Marshall
Gary Sez: GOP win.
Gary's Special: Diana Irey boots Murtha, winning 53-55% of vote. Congratulations, Diana, on being this year's Goliath-killer.
Overall, I see the GOP holding losses to a minimum in the House, possibly as little as -2.
Senate:
Missouri: Talent vs. McCaskill
Gary Sez: Talent wins because of superior GOTV operation and because ACORN's voter registration fraud was caught.
Montana: Tester vs. Burns
Gary Sez: Burns wins with a furious finish. Taxes & judicial confirmations key issues in this race.
Virginia: Allen vs. Webb
Gary Sez: Allen wins tight match.
Maryland: Cardin vs. Steele
Gary Sez: Congratulations Sen.-Elect Steele. GOP pickup.
RI: Chafee vs. Whitehouse
Gary Sez: Chafee wins because of Kerry glitch and great GOTV effort.
Michigan: Stabenow vs. Bouchard
Gary Sez: Bouchard in a late night win. Rove told Hugh that "Bouchard in particular, is a very attractive candidate for the Senate, because he's the sheriff of Oakland County, the large suburban, one of the large suburban counties outside of Detroit. It's the quintessential swing county in the state. If a Republican wins statewide, it is because they do well in Oakland County. He's the sheriff. He also previously served in the legislature, where he was an accomplished legislator. So he understands the legislative process, and he's got a big suburban base."
Ohio: DeWine vs. Brown
Gary Sez: Brown shouldn't have a shot but likely will win.
Pennsylvania: Santorum vs. the ultimate nothing
Gary Sez: The Beltway pundits say this race is over but they haven't talked at all about Santorum's 'Gathering Storm' series of speeches, coupled with massive GOP voter registration drives wherever he's gone. I can't write Sen. Santorum off.
Minnesota: Klobuchar vs. the Good Kennedy
Gary Sez: Minnesota's GOTV operation is hitting on all cylinders and Mlobuchar's imploding because she won't expand beyond focus-grouped soundbite answers. GOP gain.
Tennesee: Ford vs. Corker
Gary Sez: Ford's had too many implosions. GOP Hold.
Senate: GOP gains 2.
If the election were held next Tuesday and if the GOP's momentum could be sustained another week, we'd see gains in both houses of Congress. Oh well.
Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006 2:43 AM
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Have You Voted?
I'll keep this brief. If you're reading this post & you haven't voted, then I'm urging you to get to your polling place & cast your vote for the Republicans in your area.
Republicans don't walk on water but they're giants compared with Democrats on the biggest issue of the day: Who will protect us from future terrorist attacks?
Democrats showed us with their votes on this fall's national security agenda that they'll weaken the laws that will protect us.
Now get off of your....computer & vote. THEN return to LFR for continuing election coverage.
Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006 11:47 AM
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Democrats Playing By The Rules
Here's proof that Democrats are playing by the rules. Unfortunately, it's their rules that ANYTHING GOES:
An email from the Kean campaign:Here's more proof:"It appears the Democrats have already resorted to Election Day dirty tricks. Late last night vandals struck the Kean for Senate Headquarters and an auxiliary office of the Star-Ledger by chaining closed the main entrance to the building as well as braking off keys in the side door entrances.
Desperate ploys such as using Hudson County Correctional Inmates to disrupt press conferences or chaining closed the front door to our headquarters, will not prevent us from informing voter's that Bob Menendez is under Federal Criminal Investigation and is unfit to serve in the United States Senate."
In wards 7, 19, 51 in Philly, PA, the crowds are going wild. Inside several voting locations, individuals have poured white out onto the polling books and the poll workers are allowing voters to go into the polls and vote without first registering. Several individuals are on hand demanding that voters vote straight Democrat.There's proof of Democratic Election Day playbook is being utilized. Let's title it "Democratic The Ends Justifies the Means" Playbook.
RNC lawyers have headed to the scene of the incidents, which are occurring in mostly hispanic precinct locations. The District Attorney has also been contacted.
More from the ground: Reports of voter intimidation by son-in-law of Philadelphia City Commissioner in 19th Ward. Carlos Mantos is not allowing Republican poll watchers with valid poll-watching certificates monitor polling places.
Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006 12:13 PM
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Kohut on Tightening Generic Ballots, etc.
H/T Gary Miller at KvM
It seems that the tightening of polls is casting serious doubt on tonight's election. Here's something worth reading:
He laid out what he thought were some interesting indicators: Three major polls, all showing the generic ballot lead for the Democrats cut in half. His pollster of choice, Andrew Kohut at Pew (formerly with Gallup), wrote a summary of findings that has a fascinating tone:Simply put, I think that the tale that's being told is that of 'The Kerry Factor'. Democrats are losing ground with independents in a hurry. Here's what I first posted:The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents.
Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter's likelihood of voting. So while Pew polls in early October and mid-October showed virtually no change in the Democratic advantage between all voters and those most likely to turn out, the current survey shows the Democrats' eight-point lead among all registered voters narrowing considerably among likely voters. In this regard, the current campaign more closely resembles previous midterm elections since 1994, when Republicans also fared better among likely voters than among all registered voters.
As the New Republic editors noted, the poll showed a particularly surprising drop in the Democratic generic ballot advantage in the Northeast, from a 26 point margin to a 9 point one.
Where are the House seats the Democrats want to pick up? Yes, some in Indiana and Kentucky, but quite a few are in Connecticut, New York, and Pennsylvania (and, apparently at one point, New Hampshire).
[Jim's observation/question: If the bottom fell out for Democrats in blue states like these, how likely is it that their candidates are holding their ground in red states like Indiana and Kentucky?]
I haven't seen many opinionists talking about something that I'll name the 'Kerry Factor'. Here's what I mean:I forwarded that post to the RNC. Here's what they included in one of their posts at GOP.com:
As a political junkie, I remember watching Frank Luntz doing the focus groups on MSNBC during the Bush-Gore debates. What those focus groups taught me was that they didn't like confrontation or negativity. Let's transfer that to today's version of those Luntz focus groups' independent voters.
I suspect that they won't buy Kerry's statement that he wasn't talking about the military. Further, I suspect that they've already started abandoning Democrats. Don't be surprised if Democrats experience an erosion with independant voters from now till election day.
OTHER EVIDENCE OF MOMENTUM.Let's be blunt about something: John Kerry's "botched joke" has moved independents in sizeable numbers. I predicted that there would be plenty of conspiracy theories if Democrats didn't retake the House. I'm revising that slightly to say that they'll be either spouting conspiracy theories or ripping John Kerry to shreds. OR BOTH!!!
- The ABC/Washington Post poll shows Republicans gaining on handling of Iraq (+8) and Personal Values (+12).
- The Kerry Factor -- John Kerry's "stuck in Iraq" remark has attracted the attention of eighty-four percent of voters , and 19% including 18% of independents say it has raised serious doubts about voting for their local Democratic candidates.
Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006 4:16 PM
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Good Luck & I'm Praying For You
That's the title to an email I sent Diana Irey this morning. Here's what I said in the email:
Diana, I can only imagine what's all going through your mind today. I hope that you'll get a call from Mr. Murtha conceding sometime relatively early tonight. Know that I'm praying for you, your family & your campaign staff.Diana graciously replied to that first email around noon CT. Here's what she said:
Also, feel free to email me or call me if you detect, God forbid, any Democratic electoral shenanigans. I'll put the word out ASAP. I also want to make you aware of Redstate.org's running of such a headline ticker, too.
Take care & God bless your day.
Gary Gross
Blogging for Diana because MURTHA MUST GO
Gary,I had to send her one last email:
Thank you so very much for all you have done. I have been overwhelmed by the outpouring of kindness and support throughout this entire campaign.
Thank you for blessing me.
Diana
Diana, I've been proud to stand with you in fighting for our Constitution while fighting against a corrupt politician who's advocating a delusional anti-terrorist policy. If people can't stand with a woman of your integrity & beliefs, then we're sunk as a nation.It would absolutely make my day, and the days of all here at MMG, if the voters decided to turn Diana Irey and Michele Bachmann loose on the poor unsuspecting liberal idiots in the House. Diana and Michele vs. Pelosi, Rangel, Conyers, Waxman and a couple of liberals to be named later doesn't sound like a fair fight to me. (Not enough liberal brainpower if you ask me.)
Fortunately, I've been able to be an advocate for you & Michele Bachmann. Michele will be my representative in the 110th Congress. I've described her as your "ideological twin sister" because you're both fireballs who won't back down from a good ideological fight. I attribute that to you & Michele both thinking the big issues of the day through before speaking on them.
I look forward to watching the results pour in & I especially look forward to hearing you declared the winner.
Gary
Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006 6:24 PM
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Chill Out Erick
I'm a huge fan of Redstate blog but I simply disagree with this post. Here's what I find objectionable:
As the sun sets across Georgia, let me be the first to say publicly on RedState what a lot of us have thought privately: we're probably going to lose the House by 20 seats minimum.Simply put, that prediction doesn't stand a snowball's prayer in hell of happening. In order for the GOP "to lose the House by 20 seats", that means Democrats would control 237 seats. That means a Democratic gain of approximately 35 seats. As I told King Banaian last night, there aren't 35 vulnerable GOP seats. (RCP lists 27 GOP seats as either leaning Democrat or toss-up, with 13 leaning and 14 toss-ups.)
Let's let history be a guide, too. In the historic 1994 elections, over 100 Democratic seats were vulnerable. The GOP gained 52 seats, meaning that approximately 50% of the Dems' vulnerable seats fell. What makes anyone think that Democrats will convert 50+ percent of the so-called vulnerable seats into gains in this unhistoric election?
There certainly will be no shortage of tight races tonight but the good news is that GOP candidates nationwide have been riding a positive wave the past 3-5 days. That will have an extraordinary impact in a year with this many tight races.
Thank
You
John
Kerry
.
To be fair to Erick, though, I definitely agree with this:
Win, lose, or draw, the House GOP needs a change. The Senate should, I think, be fine under the leadership of my hero Mitch "Repeal BCRA" McConnell. Speaker Hastert, Majority Leader Boehner, Majority Whip Blunt, and Deputy Majority Whip Cantor need some time in the wilderness to rediscover their roots.The House leadership is in desparate need of some new ideological blood. That said, I think that the Senate desparately needs more conservatives like Tom Coburn.
Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006 6:20 PM
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Diana Irey Says "Thank You"
Diana Irey has posted a gracious Thank You note on her campaign's website that I encourage you all to read. Here's a little snippet of her 'Thank You' message:
THANK YOU.We hope to splash a big Congratulations post here in a few hours.
Thank you for your support, your encouragement, and your pats on the back.
Thank you for welcoming me, and our entire campaign team, into your homes and your hearts.
Thank you for your hard work - the phone calls, the yard sign runs, the door knocking in your own neighborhoods and even outside your own communities.
And , thank you for your prayers.
Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006 6:46 PM
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Hacker Attacks Bouchard Website
Here's what the Detroit News is reporting:
The FBI is investigating an apparent attack by hackers that today shut down the Internet Web site of U.S. Senate candidate Mike Bouchard. Anyone trying to log on to MikeforMichigan.com gets a message saying the site was shut down as a result of an attack by hackers.If you want to empower the party that embodies the 'Culture of Corruption', vote for your local Democrat.
David All, a spokesman for Bouchard's Republican campaign, said attackers created a program that resulted in the site being bombarded with massive requests for information that shut the site down. Workers were trying to get the site back up but it was unlikely to happen before the polls closed, All said.
Investigators tracked the source of the attack to Maryland, he said. "The Detroit FBI office had a referral on this matter," said FBI spokeswoman Dawn Clenney. "We've been advised of it and our cyber-crime squad is looking into it."
All said a smaller attack with similar fingerprints happened about one week ago. At the time, campaign officials were not sure whether the problem was due to heavy volumes resulting from a new video message that had been posted on the site. "We know there are still a number of undecided voters out there and folks still making up their minds," All said. He described the attack as a political dirty trick but said he did not want to point fingers at who might have been behind it.
For those of you in Michigan, get to the polls, then vote for Mike Bouchard and Dick DeVos.
Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006 7:42 PM
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