July 16-17, 2008
Jul 16 03:10 Supply & Demand Don't Apply? Jul 16 17:08 Paul Broun Wins Despite National Interference Jul 16 23:33 Lame Anti-Drilling Arguments Jul 17 01:03 An Activist's Letter To John McCain Jul 17 03:47 Drilling Bill a Loser For Dems, Pelosi??? Jul 17 10:53 Pelosi's Voice Carries...For Now
Prior Months: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Supply & Demand Don't Apply?
For days, Democrats have said that "We can't drill our way out of this crisis." They've also implied that even if we opened the OCS and ANWR, that we wouldn't get any oil from those places for a decade, maybe longer. They've also implied that the savings would be almost nonexistent. For all their chirping, I'll simply direct people's attention to Larry Kudlow's NRO article . Here's what Larry said that stuck out like a neon sign:
In a dramatic move yesterday President Bush removed the executive-branch moratorium on offshore drilling. Today, at a news conference, Bush repeated his new position, and slammed the Democratic Congress for not removing the congressional moratorium on the Outer Continental Shelf and elsewhere. Crude-oil futures for August delivery plunged $9.26, or 6.3 percent, almost immediately as Bush was speaking, bringing the barrel price down to $136.It would be presumtuous to think that opening the OCS would immediately drive prices down that dramatically but it isn't a stretch to think that prices would steadily drop each time a new bid was approved. Not only isn't it a stretch, it's a likelihood.
While Republicans have an easy, effective message, this post from Michele Bachmann's blog shows the difficulty Democrats are having crafting a coherent energy strategy:
"Drilling in the OCS will do nothing to lower gas prices, but it will mean one more handout to those who are already enjoying billions of dollars in taxpayer subsidies. Let me remind President Bush: If the oil companies wanted more domestic drilling, they could begin today. They could begin on the 68 million acres of land that are already set aside, leased, and available for drilling. And with upcoming Democratic legislation to speed up the leasing process for 20 million more acres in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, they'll be able to drill there, too."Let's break this down. First, Hoyer says that increasing supply won't help, thereby ignoring at least a couple centuries of time-tested capitalist teachings. Next he villifies Big Oil, saying that they've opened up enough land for exploration. By saying that, Hoyer's essentially saying that Big Oil doesn't want to drill until oil is even more expensive than it currently is. During the past week, thye number that I've seen Democrats use is $200/bbl. My question is simple: If they wan tot maximize profits and say to hell with the little guy, why not wait until it's $250/bbl. For that matter, why not wait until it's $500/bbl?
The point I'm making is that the Democrats' numbers are arbitrary. I won't even say that they're the result of Democratic speculation. Instead, I'd bet that they're more the product of the Democrats' villification campaign.
Finally, Hoyer says that Democrats are willing to let oil companies drill in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. If increasing supplies don't matter, why open any of this land up? If we'd only see marginal impact years in the future if we opened up the OCS, why did prices drop like a lead balloon the minute the markets thought that energy production might be increased?
The problem that Democrats face is that we'll shred any half-measure designed to provide political cover. On the other hand, their environmental allies will shred them if they offer a genuine solution. Whether you call it a Catch-22 situation or whether you call it a damned-if-I-do, damned-if-I-don't situation, the situation isn't where Democrats want to be.
As long as they cater to their environmental extremist allies, they'll be caught east of the rock and west of the hard place. What was that about this being the year that Democrats cleaned House and consolidated power?
Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2008 4:32 PM
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Paul Broun Wins Despite National Interference
Rep. Paul Broun defeated his NRCC-supported primary challenger last night. Thrashed him is more accurate. Barry Fleming was the NRCC-endorsed candidate; Rep. Broun was the RedState endorsed candiate. Here's how Mr. Fleming attempted spinning his thrashing:
An NBC Augusta crew visited Fleming at his home in Harlem Tuesday night.Here's how RedState's Jeff Emanuel sees it:
We asked if he thought the negative ads he ran during his campaign kept him from beating Broun.
"I think there were two things that were very decisive in this race. The first and most important is that there is a deep dissatisfaction, as I sensed, in the Republican base and that's who comes out to vote in primaries. Mr. Broun did a very good job tapping into that dissatisfaction. Votes that normally would raise eyebrows, he actually turned that into "At least I know what's going on in Washington," said Fleming.
RedState-endorsed Congressman Paul Broun, Jr. (R-GA), elected in 2007 to fill the rest of the late Rep. Charlie Norwood's term, faced an all-out assault from his own party this primary season in the form of business-as-usual, big-government Republican Barry Fleming.Fleming is right. There is a "deep dissatisfaction" within the GOP base. What Fleming didn't understand is that that dissatisfaction is with squishies like Fleming. We're sick and tired of go along, get along types. We want principled fighters.
Fleming has been attacking Broun from the left on fiscal policy, Constitutional authority, and social issues for months. Today, primary voters in Georgia's 10th Congressional District got to have their say in which brand of Republicanism they favored, the big-government kind that attacks conservatives and seeks to be little other than Democrat-lite, or the small-government, personal freedom-advocating kind that fights for the core conservative beliefs of freedom, choice, and limited government.
Let's expand this to the RNC, the NRCC and the NRSC. If you're gonna ask us for campaign contributions, give us a reason to contribute beyond 'we don't suck as much as our opponent'. Money is tight, which means that we need a compelling reason to part with our money. I'll take it a step further. I've told members of the House GOP caucus that I love being sent out onto the battlefield. All I require is more ammunition than you think I'll need.
Metaphorically speaking, don't send me onto the battlefield with a box of shells and tell me to thin out their army. Give me lots of ammo and tell me to have fun and report back when I need more ammo or I've leveled their army. In short, if Washington politicians fight for me, I'll have their back.
It's my firm conviction that Washington, especially the RNC, doesn't have a clue that there's an army of conservative activists just waiting for someone to lead us into battle, that we're chomping on the bit, that all we need is a little motivation.
The RNC types are telling us that it's a difficult environment for Republicans this year. Meanwhile, the Paul Brouns of the world clobber squishies despite having the party work against them. It's time that Washington stopped with their elitism and started listening.
The minute that they start fighting with us is the day that the difficult times for the GOP are history.
Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2008 5:12 PM
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Lame Anti-Drilling Arguments
The Sierra Club's Athan Manuel is quoted in a CNNMoney article offering one of the lamest rationalizations as to why we shouldn't open up the OCS. Here's that quote:
"We don't think it's good to couple a bad idea, like offshore drilling, with a good idea," said Athan Manuel, director of lands protection for the Sierra Club, an environmental group. "We don't think it's worth risking our coastlines, our beaches, our tourism industry and some of our most special places for oil and gas that will not solve our energy problem."When Mr. Manuel says that we shouldn't drill offshore because it'd hurt tourism, he's assuming that tourism-related industries are flourishing right now. It isn't likely that they're flourishing because high gas prices are limiting that type of activity.
Environmental groups are latching onto this information as justification for not drilling on the OCS:
But environmental groups are loath to reopen the area, citing in part a U.S. Energy Information Administration study that found access to the Pacific, Atlantic and eastern Gulf regions wouldn't have a significant effect on domestic crude-oil and gas production or on prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production wouldn't be expected to start before 2017, the EIA found.While the EIA's statistics seem sound, their analysis is shaky at best. What proof is the USEIA using in their study that says oil and gas production and prices before 2030? What's preventing the leases from being let before 2012? If there are regulations impeding the leasing process, it shouldn't be difficult to find ways to streamline those regulations.
What's most disgusting is that Ms. Pelosi is counting on Appropriations Chairman to be part of her team of obstructionists:
One line of defense for Democratic leaders is House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis. The congressional ban on drilling has been renewed as part of an annual Interior Department spending bill. Obey last month abruptly canceled votes on fiscal 2009 spending bills after the top Republican on the panel tried to use the process to bring a drilling measure up for a vote.For years, Democrats have written the ban on opening up the OCS into the DOI appropriations bill. Ms. Pelosi is clearly planning on that happening again this year. Don't bet on her winning that war. They might win this fight but I can't picture them winning that war.
Obey appears to have no plans to give pro-drilling lawmakers room to maneuver. Asked Tuesday when he planned to hold a vote in his committee on the Interior Department spending bill, Obey replied, "What makes you think there will be one?"
This issue adversely affects everyone that reads this blog. If people aren't upset, they should be. This is possibly the biggest issue facing people going into an election in a generation. The candidates that don't take this issue seriously will face a fight. It's apparent that Republicans are taking this seriously. I can't say the same about Democrats.
Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2008 11:34 PM
Comment 1 by Walter hanson at 16-Jul-08 11:41 PM
Gary:
I heard something interesting and maybe this is consistent with what you're saying in this post. The authority for the ban runs out on September 30th unless Congress renews it.
All Bush has to do is veto it and come October 1, 2008 we will have drilling and people will see an immediate impact on the price of oil.
Can you imagine the Sierra Club having to go to court to try to stop this. That will cost Democrats seats! If the Democrats try to renew it Bush vetoes it! The people will identify who is wrong.
What do you think?
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 17-Jul-08 01:08 AM
Walter, I just talked with King Banaian & he confirmed that there's 73 days left until the ban expires.
Comment 3 by Kat at 17-Jul-08 02:30 PM
The real question is will ANWR help reduce gas prices? According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), opening ANWR will result in a reduction of light crude oil prices of $0.41/ barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 (low oil resource case), $0.75/barrel in 2027 (mean oil resource case), and $1.44/barrel in 2027 (high oil resource case.) EIA also adds: assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, OPEC could neutralize any potential price impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports.
It doesn't seem gas prices will decrease by a lot. But we know that Americans need help today. So here are a couple tips to help save on gas: keep your tires property inflated to improve gas mileage by 3% (and save up to 20 gallons or up to $75) and decrease your speed (each five miles per hour over 60 mph is like paying an additional 20 cents per gallon for gas). Also, try checking out the Drive $marter Challenge ( http://www.drivesmarterchallenge.org ) for additional saving tips. ; Kat, Alliance to Save Energy
Comment 4 by Gary Gross at 17-Jul-08 04:27 PM
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), opening ANWR will result in a reduction of light crude oil prices of $0.41/ barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 (low oil resource case), $0.75/barrel in 2027 (mean oil resource case), and $1.44/barrel in 2027 (high oil resource case.) EIA also adds: assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, OPEC could neutralize any potential price impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports.
The EIA's report is useless. What do bureaucrats know about free markets? While the EIA's report says this, financial experts whose job it is to predict these things dispute this information.
Comment 5 by walter hanson at 17-Jul-08 06:54 PM
I got better evidence. The price of oil has dropped by about $10 just because President Bush lifted his executive order. Imagine what will happen once that supply hits the market.
More important Eric how much higher will it go if no new supply is added to the market? I don't hear you talking about that problem!
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
An Activist's Letter To John McCain
Senator McCain, Words don't do justice to the admiration I have for your heroism, sacrifice and steadfastness while you were imprisoned in the Hanoi Hilton. i can't even begin to understand what that ordeal was like. I'm impressed by the fact that you not only survived that ordeal but that you then served our nation in such an honorable way.
During your time in the Senate, military officials knew that they could count on you to support them when they told you about their needs, whether that need was about a new jet, a new weapons system or in straightening out turf wars within the Pentagon.
We also know that you haven't been a yes man for the military. When you saw this war going badly, you spoke out, telling the nation that you didn't have confidence in Donald Rumsfeld or his plan for victory. Your championing the Surge was instrumental in turning the tide in Iraq.
While we know that you didn't design the plan, we know that youdefended the plan when your opponent and others were saying the strategy was doomed for failure. Thanks to your steadfastness, the plan was given time to succeed. And succeed it has, possibly beyond our highest expectations.
In short, you've led while others adopted a defeatist attitude.
While the war turned around, though, the economy slowed down. Now is the time to focus on the biggest hindrance to America's prosperity: high gas prices. Because some politicians refuse to let oil companies explore for oil off our coast or in the Mountain West, our nation faces a Crisis of Choice.
We're facing a Crisis of Choice because Bill Clinton vetoed a bill that would've opened up ANWR. Had he signed that bill, we would now be getting a million barrels of oil a day from the Costal Plain.
We're facing a Crisis of Choice because politicians keep extending the ban on the exploration and eventually the drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf. I applaud you for saying that you will push hard to open up the OCS so that we can harvest the oil and natural gas waiting just off our shores.
The time to act on opening up the OCS is now because the need is so urgent.
The need is urgent for truckers, who are paying almost $5 a gallon for diesel. Not only is it robbing them of the American Dream but it's causing them to not meet their operating expenses.
The need is urgent for the family that's seen the cost of heating their home and the cost of their groceries go up faster than their incomes.
The need is urgent because the high cost of heating schools will affect our schools' budgets.
In short, high gas prices, caused by years of not investing in our most important commodity, are causing a series of troubles that can't wait to be fixed anymore.
Senator, The time to act is now. The time for leadership is now. We know that you are a proven leader because we've seen your leadership on Iraq. We need your leadership now on this issue so that Republicans can speak with a strong, clear, unified voice that we're the Solutions Party.
It's time that we told every American that we're the Can Do Party because we believe that America is destined for prosperity. We are the party that believes in the miracles of capitalism.
Our opponents on the other side of the aisle don't always share that belief. Our opponents on the other side of the aisle don't always believe in America's greatness because tehy've seen how government programs have failed.
We believe in America's greatness because we've seen how private enterprise has produced miracle after miracle when given the opportunity and the tools.
If we give private enterprise the opportunities it needs, we know that we'll see a prosperous America in the near future. That will only happen if you make this issue the most important item on your domestic agenda.
If you focus on this solution, you will earn our admiration, our trust and our votes, which will give you the opportunity to lead this great nation.
If you fail to focus on this solution, you will have failed to lead this nation out of a crisis that threatens to diminsh every American's prosperity and greatly limit every American's liberty.
Senator McCain, We're counting on you to trumpet the message of energy independence through increased energy production. It's time that you made this your issue just like you made the surge your issue.
From,
An Activist
Posted Thursday, July 17, 2008 2:56 AM
Comment 1 by eric zaetsch at 17-Jul-08 07:05 AM
It's silly.
Drilling Bill a Loser For Dems, Pelosi???
Rep. Kathy Castor, (D-FL), is expected to submit a bill to open up drilling in Alaska . While that sounds good, the devil is revealed in these details:
Tomorrow, the U.S. House is expected to take up a bill co-sponsored by Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, that calls for more drilling in Alaska, in line with what the Bush administration announced today, and would force oil companies to use existing leases on federal lands or give them up to other companies.As I noted yesterday, Democrats won't allow an open rule partially because they know Republicans would propose lifting the ban on exploration on the OCS and partially because they know that alot of Democrats would join them to adopt such an amendment. If that happened, it would be a huge embarrassment to that huge embarrassment known as Nancy Pelosi.
She and other Democrats in Congress are trying to deflect efforts by Republicans to open more of the nation's coastline to oil and gas exploration, so they're offering alternatives like this one. The bill passed the Rules Committee today and, thanks to the way it's structured, members won't be able to amend it, meaning Republicans can't force a vote on more off-shore drilling, a vote that Democratic leaders fear they may lose.
More importantly, this shows how afraid the House Democratic leadership is of having a true comprehensive debate on this issue. We learned from our blogger conference call that committee chairmen gaveled hearings to a close before Republicans could submit drilling amendments.
I've been impressed with how House Republicans are pushing this issue. They've seen the feaer in the Democrats' eyes on this issue. They understand that the Democrats' energy policy is a house of cards that will crumble with a gentle push.
If Sen. McCain jumps onboard with this, the Democrats will be defenseless. More importantly, they will have been exposed as being solutionless. There's alot of anxiety about the economy right now. The party that doesn't have a viable solution to the biggest threat to our prosperity will be pushing into a strong wind.
According to this article , it's quite possible that Democrats will lose this this vote, thereby making them look more ineffective than they already do. With Congress' approval rating already at a paltry 9%, it can't get much lower .
It's difficult for me to believe that the American consumer will settle for anything but real relief, something that currently isn't on the menu.
Posted Thursday, July 17, 2008 3:48 AM
Comment 1 by skep41 at 17-Jul-08 10:10 AM
It's almost impressive to see the level of skill the Dems bring to their lying. They know the people want to drill and they know there's a need for it but they cant just stand up and say, 'No, We think it's bad."
What a pack of snivel cowards they are. This election is still up for grabs. Why arent the Republicans on the air attacking them?
Pelosi's Voice Carries...For Now
This article by Carl Hulse says that Ms. Pelosi's voice carries some weight because she's Speaker. That's true for now. If she continues steering Democrats away from an energy solution, don't be surprised if we're talking about Speaker-Elect Boehner the first Wednesday in November.
Now, with gas prices soaring, those drilling restrictions are facing their most severe test in years as calls intensify to more aggressively pursue domestic oil. Yet despite increasing pressure from President George W. Bush, a full-bore assault by congressional Republicans and some anxiety among her own rank-and-file Democrats, Pelosi is not budging.Betting the ranch that people won't mind budget-breaking gas prices is taking a huge risk. People are hurting. The trucking industry is in bad shape. Families are paying more for groceries. They can't afford taking a vacation, either. Schools will pay more to heat or cool their buildings.
"The president of the United States, with gas at $4 a gallon because of his failed energy policies, is now trying to say that is because I couldn't drill offshore," Pelosi said in an interview. "That is not the cause, and I am not going to let him get away with it."
Her voice carries considerable weight since, as speaker, Pelosi is in a position to prevent a vote on expanded drilling from reaching the floor.
And she and Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, appear intent on holding the line against calls to approve drilling in areas now off limits. They mount the counterargument that the oil and gas industry is not aggressively exploring large expanses it has already leased on land and offshore. They also have urged Bush to pour some fuel from national reserves into the commercial supply chain in an effort to lower prices.
Ms. Pelosi and Sen. Reid aren't taking tip O'Neill's saying that "all politics are local." They're catering to the environmentalists instead of their constituents. They're catering ot K Street instead of Main Street. They're essentially telling people that they'll have to pay higher prices and suffer the consequnces because they refuse to be part of the solution. They've told voters that they'll have to suffer the consequences because the environment is more important than their wallets.
I can't imagine people like hearing that the almost-mythical thing called the environment takes precedence over people's prosperity. That's what Sen. Reid and Ms. Pelosi are telling voters by obstructing the process that would deliver real solutions to this crisis of choice.
This should've been a strong Democratic year. That changed the minute (a) gas topped $4/gallon and (b) Republicans started fighting Democrats on this issue. We should also note that John Hofmeister going on the offensive provided the impetus to putting Republicans on the offensive.
When we look back from the election, don't be surprised if we see Hoffmeister's testimony as being the turning point. Don't be surprised if we wake up the day after the election and find that John Hoffmeister's voice carries more than Ms. Pelosi's did.
UPDATE: Rep. Castor's bill was defeated. Here's what you need to know:
"Increasing domestic supply means facilitating drilling where it is allowed already in tens of millions of acres across our country," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.As I wrote here , Democrats used a closed rule because Republicans were poised to offer an amendment that would've opened leasing on the OCS. Democrats didn't want that to happen because they knew enough of their members would defect and help pass that amendment.
The House voted 244 to 173 in favor of the legislation, but the measure fell short of obtaining two thirds of the "yes" votes that was required when the chamber suspends its rules to quickly act on a bill.
Under the suspension of the rules, Republicans were blocked from amending the bill. Republicans say they had enough votes to pass the bill with an amendment lifting the ban on offshore drilling, which is opposed by the Democratic leadership.
Speaker Pelosi's statement is also telling because it says that she won't let any new reserves be opened for exploration. That isn't a defensible position. Instead, it's a position that will get lots of Democrats defeated.
Posted Thursday, July 17, 2008 4:20 PM
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