January 5-6, 2008
Jan 05 01:33 My Type of Losing Jan 05 02:35 The Unthinkable Just Happened Jan 05 14:41 The Hatchet Job Continues Jan 05 21:33 Hillary's Bridge-Burning Tour Jan 05 23:54 NH Debate Recap Jan 06 15:42 A Tale of Contrasts Jan 06 19:54 Rockville Town Hall Meeting Jan 06 21:10 Tonight's Debate
My Type of Losing
Powerline's Paul Mirengoff wrote that Fred and Mitt were Thursday night's big losers on the GOP side. Friday afternoon, I checked Fred08.com like I've been doing the last couple months. I smiled when I saw Fred's red pickup back. The challenge was to raise $540,000 by next Friday.
A little past midnight Friday night, Fred was well on his way of achieving that goal. According to the graphic, people had already contributed $112,563. If that's what losing looks like, I'd love going on that type of 'losing streak'.
Seriously, people have been talking Fred down. It's rumored that some rival GOP campaigns leaked the story that he'd drop out if he didn't do well in Iowa. With fundraising picking up and a strong finish in Iowa under his belt, the rumors of Fred's demise should be put to rest.
That's likely the last thing John McCain and Mike Huckabee wanted to hear.
Fred's national security credentials certainly rival John McCain's. Similarly, Fred's collected as many endorsements from state right to life organizations as Gov. Huckabee. In addition to those important qualifications, Fred's tenacious defense of the Tenth Amendment and states' rights is as strong as any GOP candidate since Ronald Reagan.
In all fairness to Paul, I agree that Mitt was a big loser Tursday night.
Posted Saturday, January 5, 2008 2:02 AM
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The Unthinkable Just Happened
Just when you think it couldn't get worse for Hillary, it gets much worse. Friday night, Hillary was booed at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's 100 Club dinner . That's got to have her thinking why the wheels came off her chariot on its way to her coronation. Here's what happened:
The New Hampshire Democratic Party's 100 Club dinner is any bell weather, Barack Obama will handily win here. When Obama, the dinner's last speaker, took the stage the crowd surged forward chanting "O-bam-a" and "Fired Up, Ready to Go!" So many people pressed toward the stage that an announcer asked people to "please take their seats for safety concerns."If Thursday night's Iowa defeat didn't rattle her, this certainly must. To get booed in a supposedly friend environment can't help Hillary's confidence.
By comparison Hillary was twice booed. The first time was when she said she has always and will continue to work for "change for you. The audience, particularly from Obama supporters (they were waving Obama signs) let out a noise that sounded like a thousand people collectively groaning. The second time came a few minutes later when Clinton said: "The there are two big questions for voters in New Hampshire. One is: who will be ready to lead from day one? The second," and here Clinton was forced to pause as boos from the crowd mixed with cheers from her own supporters. "Is who can we nominate who will go the distance against the Republicans?"
This tailspin is of her own making, though. Had she given a firm answer to Tim Russert's question on whether to give drivers licenses to illegal immigrants, I'm fairly certain that she'd be the frontrunner today. Instead, she attempted to pander to people on both sides of the issue.
She followed that up by trying to plant questions during a Q $ A session at a townhall meeting. She still hasn't pulled out of that tailspin. Based on Friday night's reaction, I'm not betting that she ever will.
Posted Saturday, January 5, 2008 2:37 AM
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The Hatchet Job Continues
Ever since Wednesday night, stories of Fred's demise have been popping up. This article even uses a political scientist at the University of Tennessee to cut Fred down. All that'll do is serve to stiffen Fred's, and the Fredheads', resolve. Here's how they're attempting to do today's hatchet job:
But others said Thompson's less-than-stellar showing may be a sign the end is near.Mr. Nownes is entitled to his opinion but he's wrong. Fred's third place finish has kickstarted his fundraising. In fact, Fred's raised almost $150,000 online since noon Friday. Furthermore, South Carolina is a state where Fred should and will do well in. The better Fred does, the stronger his fundraising will become. With alot of southern states coming up, there's every reason to believe that he'll start picking up momentum.
"I would say that this is the beginning of the end," said Anthony Nownes, a political scientist at the University of Tennessee. "It's only going to get harder from here on in."
Political strategists, and even Thompson himself, had said going into Thursday night's GOP caucuses in Iowa that he needed to place at least in the top three to stay in the race.
Thompson met that threshold, but just barely. He appeared to edge out U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona for third place: The two were separated by just a few hundred votes Friday afternoon, with a few precincts yet to report their results.
I'd also point out that there isn't any incentive in dropping out before Super Tuesday. It's time the naysayers realized that Fred isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Anywhere but up, that is.
The media clowns won't even take him at his word:
Seeking to dispel media reports that he might drop out of the race, Thompson added, "I'm in this race for the long haul, and I want to win."Fred's statement made it clear that he isn't quitting, yet the media clowns insist on burying him, saying things like "Thompson limps out of Iowa" and the like. I said last night that his fundraising has gotten a strong kickstart since then. What other proof do these idiots need before they retract their statements?
U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp, who chaired the Draft Thompson committee that helped coax the candidate into the race, said he was encouraged by Thompson's showing in Iowa.
"A lot of people had begun to write him off," said Wamp, R-Chattanooga. "There was even speculation about him getting out and endorsing McCain. I think somebody made that up."
Thompson limps out of Iowa and into New Hampshire, where the next go-round in the presidential contest will be held on Tuesday. But Thompson's e-mail message made it clear his real focus is on South Carolina, where he's more competitive.
The most galling part of this is that the media clowns that keep trying to bury him don't respect the will of the people. Whining that he isn't following conventional wisdomand their pontifications is insulting to real people. Fredheads love the fact that Fred's paying attention to us, not the punditocracy. Fredheads love seeing Fred pay attention to policy, not just process.
That's his appeal. That's why the punditocracy doesn't get it. Does Fred need to accelerate the pace of his campaigning? Definitely. Will Fred step up the pace of his campaigning? Undoubtedly. Will that make him the GOP presidential nominee? If we're lucky.
Posted Saturday, January 5, 2008 2:43 PM
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Hillary's Bridge-Burning Tour
Eight years ago, Hillary went on a listening tour throughout outstate New York. According to the Hotline , Hillary has now started a bridge-burning tour:
When the press gave Hillary Clinton a chance to downplay her disappointing showing in Iowa, she took the bait. Over and over again.WOW!!! Talk about taking her shots at Iowa. If she gets the nomination, she'd better hope that Iowa stands between here and the presidency. If it comes down to that, she'll still be known as Sen. Clinton.
"Iowa does not have the best track record in determining who the parties nominate. Everybody knows that," she told reporters after a brief photo-op at a cafe here.
Ouch. Of corrse, everybody also knows the senator's line would be different had she won last night. Instead, she echoed her spinmeisters in trying to suggest the momentum Obama gained from Iowa would not be a great threat.
"New Hampshire is famously independent. It is a place where people want to make up their own minds. They're not interested in what anybody else has decided. They want to, you know, look us up and down and make that judgment," she said.
And later: "This is a new day. This is a new state. This is a primary election where, you know, you're not disenfranchised if you work at night. You know, you actually can come out and vote. You're not disenfranchised if you're not in the state. You can actually send in an absentee ballot. So this is going to be a much more representative electorate, because we've got people who are going to be able to express their opinion in the way that we run elections in America and I welcome that."
Saying that "Iowa does not have the best track record" in picking presidents is a slap in the faces of Iowa's activists. That won't endear Hillary to them should she be the Democratic Pary's nominee.
Her saying that New Hampshire voters "want to make up their own minds" is another slap in Iowa activists' faces. At a time when Hillary needs to be building bridges, she's more intent on burning them. That's just more proof that she doesn't have Bill's political skills.
Posted Saturday, January 5, 2008 9:34 PM
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NH Debate Recap
Tonight's New Hampshire debate had some interesting moments. Fred seemed to be at the center of most of those moments.
When Mike Huckabee was asked what he meant when he said that President Bush's foreign policy was too arrogant, Gov. Huckabee explained that he meant that we should've sent in more troops into Iraq.
Fred immediately pounced on that, saying that "I think the Governor has rethought what he said because now he seems to be saying that we were arrogant because we didn't go in with enough troops." It isn't the type of thing that changes the course of the rest of the debate but it's something that Fred will use when the campaign moves to South Carolina. It's something that Huckabee will have to 'rethink' again.
Another great Fred moment was one of Mitt's low moments. Charlie Gibson asked, in the context of talking about Mitt's health care plan, if Mitt liked mandates, to which Mitt said "Oh no, I like mandates." Fred jumped in, saying "I didn't think you'd admit that tonight."
When Ron Paul talked about health care, he said that Charlie Gibson had provided the answer why we don't have universal health care. Paul said that we don't have health care because we're waging a "trillion dollar war" and that we need to "stop printing new money." Fred's response was direct. "So you're saying if we stopped printing more money, we could get out of Iraq and give everybody health care"?
Frankly, Ron Paul is giving libertarianism a bad name with some of his answers. When he talked about the terrorists' war against civilization, Rep. Paul asked why the terrorists haven't hit Canada. He said that terrorists aren't hitting other nations. Rudy jumped all over that, saying that terrorists had hid Bali and London, then asking why the terrorists had hit the 1972 Munich Olympics or killed Leon Klinghoffer. Mitt Romney cited the Madrid train bombings.
Here's Fred's best exchange with Rudy:
Frankly, I didn't think that Mike, Mitt, McCain or Rudy distinguished themselves tonight. Of that bunch, I thought Rudy helped himself the most because he cited his 12 commitments and for citing specific plans for increasing the size of our military.
Still, the night belonged to Fred. Tonight's performance is what I envisioned when I first started talking about Fred 23 months ago. I told my fring King Banaian that Fred's depth of knowledge on all the issues would make him a great debater. Tonight, Fred showcased his debating skills.
I don't think that tonight's performance will give him a big uptick in New Hampshire because he isn't really competing there. I do think that tonight's performance will (a) strengthen him greatly in South Carolina and (b) dispel the myth that he's planning on dropping out soon.
Speaking of which, Robert Novak is reporting where the Thompson dropping out stories originated :
Published reports that Fred Thompson soon will withdraw from the Republican presidential contest and endorse Sen. John McCain have been traced in part to Mitt Romney's campaign, trying to stir up strife between McCain and Thompson.Back to the debate, here's what Marc Ambinder says :
On points, Fred Thompson won the debate.McCain will likely win New Hampshire but Fred's got his sights set on winning South Carolina. At this point, I won't bet against that.
Every answer was thoughtful and well-crafted; his tone matched the tone of the question; he wisely refrained from interjecting in the back and forth squabbling. He very deftly reminded viewers that he served on key Senate national security panels and is bringing his experience to bear. Even his insults were subtly and gently constructed In some ways, Thompson did McCain's bidding. You skeptical readers can tell me that if Thompson had finished a solid fourth in Iowa, I might not be writing about Thompson at all, that said, he's still a candidate, and his performance tonight tells me his mind is not elsewhere.
UPDATE: Peter Robinson makes this great observation :
If (as I expect) Romney fares badly in New Hampshire, Thompson will be the obvious choice for conservatives. He's going to prove an easy man to rally around.Here's the rest of Robinson's post on tonight's debate:
With respect to Brother Jonathan, in my judgment Fred Thompson turned in a very fine performance, the more effective for proving underplayed. The others fought, bickered, attempted to demonstrate their brains. Naturally enough, they commanded the viewer's immediate attention. But did they look like chief executives of a great nation? Or like candidates for a student council? Thompson stood, in effect, to one side, quiet and dignified, speaking less often, perhaps, but with cogency and principle. Thompson alone conveyed a sense of gravitas. He looked, spoke, and comported himself like a president.Here's what Andy McCarthy said :
Rich and Mark Steyn are right, and I was wrong. I always think it's strange when the great athletes talk about letting the game come to them. But that's how this format worked for Fred, and when called on he did great. I thought his explanation of healthcare economics was staggeringly good; I don't see how you could do it better in this format. And when he went into trial lawyer mode, cross-examining the other candidates, he did in the effective way, no screaming, but pressing (patiently but insistently) for an answer. Very nicely done.Both gentlemen are right on the mark. Fred's always had the gravitas factor nailed. Fred knows as much about national security as McCain and Giuliani. Fred also knows as much about health care and immigration as Mitt. Nobody has the full package like Fred.
Originally posted Saturday, January 5, 2008, revised 06-Jan 12:43 AM
Comment 1 by Political Muse at 06-Jan-08 12:05 AM
The problem though for Fred is that the press seems to ignore him in favor of Mitt, Rudy, Huck, McCain, and even Ron. Other than passing comments I just don't hear a lot about him from sources outside you and Leo.
I'll give him this, he does have a low key charisma about him that makes him likeable. It must be that southern charm or something.
Comment 2 by Gary Gross at 06-Jan-08 12:47 AM
Eric, There's something transformative happening this year. We The People aren't letting the media machine tell us what to do.
That's why Obama clobbered HRC. That's why Huckabee clobbered Mitt.
Fred's waging a very web-savvy campaign. Will he win the nomination? I hope so but I'm not predicting it...yet.
Fred's got the total package in terms of gravitas, measured tone to his replies & tons of humor & personality.
A Tale of Contrasts
Last night was a picture in contrasts. Mitt Romney was last night's pinata. Everyone painted a bullseye on Mitt's chest before they emptied both barrels at him. McCain and Rudy got criticized for their immigration policies. Huckabee for his foreign policy. (It goes without saying that Ron Paul got hit hard for being from another solar system.)
At the other end of the spectrum, Fred Thompson didn't have a glove laid on him. There's a good reason for that: His policies and beliefs are rock solid and unassailable.
No GOP presidential candidate will argue that the federal government's role shouldn't be limited to the things that the Constitution explicitly assigns to the federal government. People aren't going to pick holes in Fred's foreign policies, either, because he wants to stay on offense against the jihadists while bringing all of our tools to bear on the sitution. Also, his credibility skyrockets when he talks about serving on the Intelligence Committee and having met with world leaders, including Gen. Musharraf.
Implicit in his talking about what principles he'd govern by is the fact that he'll appoint strict constructionist judges. Anyone that thinks that the federal government shouldn't worry about oil company profits isn't someone that'll pick judges in the mold of Sandra Day O'Connor or David Souter.
Nobody doubts that a President Thompson would nominate judges like Samuel Alito, John Roberts and Antonin Scalia. That's music to movement conservatives' ears. That's like getting marching orders into the sanity wars, sometimes referred to as the culture wars.
Implicit in his reply to the oil companies' profits was that he believes in the free market system. That also shined through when he talked about the health care industry. His answer that free markets were the only way to hold costs down while maintaining quality had economists everywhere cheering.
I wrote here that Fred owned the stage last night. The reason he owned it is because (a) nobody laid a glove on him and (b) he pointed out the flaws in the other candidates' positions.
That's what happens when you're the most intelligent, most conservative candidate on stage.
Posted Sunday, January 6, 2008 3:43 PM
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Rockville Town Hall Meeting
Leo & I attended Steve Gottwalt's townhall meeting Saturday morning. To say that Steve had his 'A game' going is understatement.
How the city assesses for roads & other improvements was easily the most heated & longest lasting part of the meeting. Tootie Hermanutz & Rockville Mayor Brian Herberg both attended the meeting. I thought it was fitting that they sat at opposite corners of the table.
One of the things that Ms. Hermanutz voiced her frustration over was how the city council didn't respond to the citizens. When Mayor Herberg responded by saying that the city council had established a new commission to listen to the people, Ms. Hermanutz said that the city-hired attorney that attended the first meeting told the citizens that "The council can dissolve this commission tomorrow if they wanted to."
Steve expressd his displeasure with that, saying that if the city council was truly interested in hearing people's opinions, they'd start the process over from scratch. They'd lay out what they're doing & why they were doing it.
I agreed with Steve that it doesn't make any sense for them to say "We want your imput but our decision is final." The message being conveyed with that is "Okay, vent at the meetings so your anger with us is gone by election time." Ms. Hermanutz said that We The People wouldn't tolerate that. From my perspective, they shouldn't have to.
Another complaint from that portion of the meeting was that the council members were hostile towards the people complaining about the decisionmaking process. Again, Steve recommended a path forward without sayin "Do this" or "Don't do that." He said that the city council should be respectful, that they should listen to the citizens.
He took a definite shot across Mayor Herberg's bow essentially saying that the Council serves the citizens, not vice versa.
Steve also noted that, though Cold Spring is only 300 people bigger than Rockville, Cold Spring gets $700,000 in LGA while Rockville gets $16,000. That's a major challenge because Rockville is a significantly bigger town square mileage-wise.
Mayor Herberg suggested that LGA shouldn't just be based on population but on the amount of roads that had to be maintained. That makes alot of sense because small towns that've merged with townships shouldn't be punished for merging. Steve said that he'd look into what remedies are available at the legislature.
When Mayor Herberg said that the LGA didn't get signed, Steve pointed out that Gov. Pawlenty was prepared to sign the tax bill if it didn't include the inflation escalator. He said that there was some partisan politicking that got the inflation provision put in to guarantee that the bill would be vetoed.
Steve said that one of the big things that'll be debated this session is transportation. He said that "we need to stop with the brinksmanship" of doing all or nothing, with 'nothing' winning too often. Steve said that Gov. Pawlenty's transportation proposal used bonding as an effective tool in leveraging tax dollars. I've agreed with that approach from the beginning.
Steve made a great point in saying that people who complain that we're building these roads on our children's backs should consider the fact that roads & bridges are supposed to last 50-75 years and are used by multiple generations. My question is simple: Why shouldn't young voters and soon-to-be-voters share in that expense?
One thing that's perfectly clear is that there's a revoltist attitude in Rockville. The citizens weren't consulted on how they'd want the roads assessed. Then the Mayor & City Council said "Okay, let's hear your side but we aren't changing our decision." That might be but the impression I got was that if the policy didn't change, there'd be a substantial change to the City Council & mayor's office.
Posted Sunday, January 6, 2008 7:54 PM
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Tonight's Debate
One thing that jumps out thus far was Huckabee's evasiveness on taxes . Utterly pathetic. Romney was on him like a pitbull, asking him if he'd increased taxes. First, the Huckster tried dodging by saying he made government work. Next, he tried playing the 'he's going negative card'.
Another thing that's worth noting was Fred's explanation about how to reform Social Security. Solid. When Chris Wallace tried interrupting, Fred persisted in explaining his plan. McCain and Romney said they appreciated Fred's putting a plan together , though Romney thought that he'd tweak it a bit.
National Security
Romney is asked about his statement about not needing an expert on foreign policy . He's sticking with his leadership line. Now he's talking about the Clintons endorsing McCain's immigration plan. He's particularly avoiding talking about the expertise side of the equation.
McCain - It's important to know the players. I know Musharraf.
Romney - Intelligence failed us badly. No kidding!!! "I was running a state." "I've made tough calls."
Wallace to Huckabee - You didn't know that marshal law had been lifted. You didn't know anything about the NIE. How do you defend yourself?
Huckabee - I've been to lots of countries. Yada, yada, yada.
Wallace - Again, back to the question. There's been a pattern that you didn't know what's been going on.
Huckabee's response is awful, defensive.
Now Rudy's turn - My national security qualifications aren't just from 9/11 . I've worked on a terrorism task force for the Ford administration. I've travelled to 35 countries. "When a Saudi prince gave me a $10 million check, then asked me to argue against US foreign policy. I gave the check back." Good response.
Fred - "It's interesting that Mitt thinks experience is important for everything except foreign policy." That'll leave a mark. Touts his being floor manager on Homeland Security bill. Talked about things he worked on as chair of Sen. Govt. Affairs Committee. Finishes by asking Mitt if Ted Kennedy had attended the bill signing of MittCare into law.
Mitt- "You bet he was." OUCH!!! Too much enthusiasm. Conservatives are cringing all across America.
McCain wrap-up -- I've been endorsed by 4 secretaries of state: Kissinger, Eagleburger, Schultz & Haig. Blah, blah, blah.
Mitt had a stronger showing tonight. He was particularly effective in going after Huckabee, exposing Gov. Huckabee as evasive on tax increases. That's understandable with his tax record. I still think his enthusiastic reply that Teddy was at MittCare signing isn't a high point.
When Huckabee tried using lines like "I made government work", you knew that he was defenseless. Pathetic. Wallace just asking the questions about his foreign policy
Fred was solid, though not as robust as last night. Still, his continual laying out his plans show off his gravitas. That's gotta help in SC. Fred doesn't suffer from Washingtonspeak. He talks like regular people. It's just that he knows alot more than most regular people. That'll play well with voters this year. They want plainspeak, not Washingtonspeak.
I thought McCain was somewhat effective tonight. The only bright spots for him was talking about pushing for the Surge, which was a solid bright spot, and talking about saving money on defense appropriations. Immigration wasn't the Achilles Heel that it was last night but too many replies were "I've been endorsed by". Another thing that hurts McCain is his constant talking in Washingtonese.
One refreshing bright spot was not having Ron Paul there. We didn't have to listen to his whiny "We shouldn't be in Iraq" diatribes.
Posted Sunday, January 6, 2008 9:27 PM
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