Klobuchar Counting on Rural Vote
I'm not making that up. That's what The Hill's Aaron Blake said in
this article. Here's some laughable lines from the article:
This gives me the opportunity to point people to Michael Barone's battle-tested theory that, unless something dramatic happens, the last hard poll, aka election, is a strong indicator of what will happen. Here's how he put it in a Jewish World Review column:
The Minnesota Poll has been totally unreliable since its inception. When compared with actual election results, it's hard to conclude that it's a poll worth paying attention to."
Simply put, the worst thing to have happen to you in politics is to be laughed at or to be ignored. In this case, both actions are justified.
Posted Wednesday, July 19, 2006 4:35 PM
June 2006 Posts
No comments.
Klobuchar said, the "swinging suburbs" are turning for her. But what she's really counting on against Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) is some help from more rural voters, who two years ago disappointed Democrats in the presidential election by strongly supporting President Bush. A poll released yesterday by the Minneapolis Star Tribune indicates that she's winning the rural vote and much more.Does Amy Klobuchar really think that the suburbs are swinging her direction? Get serious. Tim Pawlenty cleaned house in the burbs in 02 and he's just as popular now as he was then. Mark Kennedy is working suburbs hard too, with essentially the same message as Gov. Pawlenty. For Klobuchar to be right, the burbs would've had to do a 180.
This gives me the opportunity to point people to Michael Barone's battle-tested theory that, unless something dramatic happens, the last hard poll, aka election, is a strong indicator of what will happen. Here's how he put it in a Jewish World Review column:
In any case, when you're talking political numbers, you should remember that some numbers are harder than others. And the hardest numbers in politics are election results. Most journalists and politicians don't spend much time looking at them. They should. Because the 2004 presidential election results tell us that Republicans are in even stronger shape than their 55-45 and 232-203 Senate and House margins suggest.That isn't to say that there aren't some dynamics that must be factored in, such as: campaigns, issues and ground games matter. Let's examine what we've seen thus far. Thus far, Mark Kennedy has been pushing the agenda, which defines the shape of a race. Mark's outreach has helped him reach into voting blocs that haven't traditionally voted GOP. Here's one example:
Mark Kennedy stole the show. He was welcomed with open arms by the Hmong leadership. He was given a glowing introduction, and by all accounts, won support from most if not all of the crowd, which was evident by the Kennedy tent being overwhelmed with people snagging up sports schedules and stickers. He even received the support of General Vang Pao, which bodes extremely well for Kennedy picking up huge support from the entire Hmong community in Minnesota.That event showed the weakness of Amy Klobuchar's ground game and Amy Klobuchar's weakness as a campaigner:
Amy Klobuhcar didn't even have a campaign presence of any significance. And when she found out that Mark Kennedy was speaking, she demanded to be included but was rude, noticeably flustered, and not well-received. There are reports that Klobuchar became rather incensed with her skeleton campaign staff that was in attendance in the aftermath of the debacle. She seemed to be blaming them for her showing to be dismal in comparison to Kennedy's well-organized and fully functioning campaign machine.Based on these three things, it's difficult, if not impossible, to understand why Amy Klobuchar is leading in the Minnesota Poll by 19 points. Here's how Heidi Frederickson responded to the results:
"This is just another ridiculous Minnesota poll; no one believes these numbers."She isn't alone in thinking that:
Robert Novak, writing in this week's Evans & Novak political newsletter, is not buying this week's Minnesota Poll.It's time for Republicans to simply ignore this 'poll'. If I were Ron Carey, I'd refrain from ever touting Minnesota Poll results and I'd fire off a press release saying something like this:
Minnesota: A Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll showing Hennepin County attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) leading Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) by double digits is probably not credible, after months of polling showing a very tight race. Kennedy has done nothing specific to put himself so far behind, and the poll in question has been inaccurate in nearly every statewide race in the last decade.
The Minnesota Poll has been totally unreliable since its inception. When compared with actual election results, it's hard to conclude that it's a poll worth paying attention to."
Simply put, the worst thing to have happen to you in politics is to be laughed at or to be ignored. In this case, both actions are justified.
Posted Wednesday, July 19, 2006 4:35 PM
June 2006 Posts
No comments.
