A Democratic Landslide...Or Not
Dick Morris and Donald Lambro have competing columns in this morning's
Jewish World Review.
Here's what Morris has to say:
It's also worth noting that things were alot more fluid in 1986 than they are in 2006. Alot more people's votes swung from Democrat to Republican and vice versa then than they do today. Voters have sorted themselves out alot more these days.
Now let's look at Mr. Lambro's column:
Morris has been saying for a couple months that public opinion on issues is tipping back into the Democrats' favor, something I see no evidence of. Frankly, Democrats are the Party of No Ideas.
Further complicating matters for Democrats is the fact that we've got a pretty solid economy, things in Iraq look like they're heading in the right direction and Democrats are still far too scary to be trusted with the levers of power. Don't misunderestimate the scare factor that a Speaker Pelosi, a House Judiciary Committee Chairman Conyers, a Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Leahy will have on GOP activists, either.
When the dust settles, Republicans will retain control of the House and Senate because Democrats aren't serious about the GWOT and because of the Democratic kook fringe base. You can take that to the bank.
Posted Thursday, June 15, 2006 6:59 AM
May 2006 Posts
No comments.
Whether there will be a rout or not is anybody's guess, mine is that there will be and that the Democrats will win both Houses of Congress. But you won't see the process one way or the other in today's polling data. In 1986, the Republicans had no idea they would face a decimation of their Senate delegation. Many party leaders were insecure because the Reagan Revolution class of 1980 was coming up for reelection, and they worried that many of these young senators had not sufficient time to sink their roots and came from states where a Democrat would probably win in normal times. But nobody could foresee the extent of the Democratic Party victory, enough to keep the Senate in their control until 1994 despite losing the presidential race in 1988.It's nonsense to compare 2006 with 1986 for a couple reasons, the biggest being that incumbents running for reelection for the first time are far more likely to get defeated than multiterm incumbents getting defeated. Also forgotten in Morris' analysis is that most of the supposedly vulnerable seats are in districts that President Bush carried with 55-65 percent of the vote. I'd suggest that those aren't truly vulnerable seats, that they're just being called that.
It's also worth noting that things were alot more fluid in 1986 than they are in 2006. Alot more people's votes swung from Democrat to Republican and vice versa then than they do today. Voters have sorted themselves out alot more these days.
Now let's look at Mr. Lambro's column:
The NRCC poured nearly $5 million into the contest, put some 200 volunteers into a voter turnout drive throughout the district, and former Congressman Brian Bilbray pulled out a victory with 49 percent of the vote. Two key issues, and a tactical strategy, were tested in the race. Bilbray took a tough-on-illegal-immigration stand that threw his liberal Democratic opponent, Francine Busby, on the defensive.The truth is that conservatism is the dominant political force in American politics and the GOP GOTV machine is superior to the DNC's machine. Expect those things to matter most in November. Another factor worth noting is that Democrats weren't nearly as bizarre in 1986 as they are now. Conservative policies are still more popular. Do the polls show that? Nope. In fact, in 1984, Walter Mondale was favored on all the issues over Ronaldus Magnus except 2, the economy and national security. For those of us old enough to remember, that wasn't exactly a strong Democratic year.
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Meanwhile, perhaps the biggest tactical road-test for the Republicans in this race was its turnout drive. That effort was only a small microcosm of the massive, national campaign that will be deployed for the fall, identifying GOP voters, registering them, getting them to the polls. In this case, the RNC's well-oiled, all-volunteer machinery worked as it was planned. When fully deployed in the fall, the GOP's turnout army will number more than 1.5 million trained volunteers, something the Democrats are nowhere near matching at this point in the 2006 campaign.
Morris has been saying for a couple months that public opinion on issues is tipping back into the Democrats' favor, something I see no evidence of. Frankly, Democrats are the Party of No Ideas.
Further complicating matters for Democrats is the fact that we've got a pretty solid economy, things in Iraq look like they're heading in the right direction and Democrats are still far too scary to be trusted with the levers of power. Don't misunderestimate the scare factor that a Speaker Pelosi, a House Judiciary Committee Chairman Conyers, a Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Leahy will have on GOP activists, either.
When the dust settles, Republicans will retain control of the House and Senate because Democrats aren't serious about the GWOT and because of the Democratic kook fringe base. You can take that to the bank.
Posted Thursday, June 15, 2006 6:59 AM
May 2006 Posts
No comments.
